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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skyepharma | SKP | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 443.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 443.00 | 443.00 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 24/3/2016 12:09 by soundbuy H/T FT AVNumis The union of Vectura and Skyepharma is one of the most complementary mergers in the UK healthcare sector. It will create a £1bn+ FTSE250 UK respiratory champion with strong, globally competitive technologies and capabilities across the entire spectrum of dry powder, smart nebuliser and now metered dose inhalers, making it the partner of choice in targeting the airways and allowing it to address 60% more of the $35bn global respiratory market than Vectura did on its own. We see the merger as a strategically and financially logical step-up for Vectura, with the combined company offering critical mass and attractive growth at a good price. We re-introduce our Buy recommendation with a 12-month target of 264p. ● In this 30-page note, we look at Skyepharma in some detail, focusing on Flutiform in particular. We see the prospect of it becoming a c.$500m drug as realistic, offering Vectura shareholders a growing, lower risk cash flow to diversify its higher risk prospects (VR315 and wholly owned FAVOLIR / SCIPE assets). ● The ongoing roll-out of Flutiform is set to transform the P&L with revenues and underlying EBITDA set to approximately double and then grow at 14% and 20% CAGR respectively to end FY2021. EPS CAGR is higher, at 33%. ● We see EPS accretion of 24% in year 1 (FY2017, 7% ROI), growing to c.60% over years 2-3 (FY2018-2019, double digit ROI), then falling to single digits as VR315 royalties come through and are spread over a higher share count. ● The deal washes its face on our risk-adjusted SOTP analysis (£470m vs £460m consideration and estimated costs). ● Our risk adjusted SOTP value is 14% diluted from our previous 271p target. The potential for platform synergies are not captured in this approach, which to date has attributed no terminal value to the assets. ● Skyepharma will bring in significant near-term cash-flows to give management a multitude of options to make the leap to self-commercialisati sustainable enterprise value. The time feels right to switch to a multiple-based valuation. ● We see the increased size, liquidity and FTSE250 listing increasing awareness of Vectura's steep forecast trajectory. A rating relative to BTG feels appropriate. Applying a P/E in line with BTG of 24.7x (vs 29% risked EPS CAGR) our risked FY2020 EPS of 16.8p (fully taxed) and discounting back, we see a multiples based valuation of 294p. We blend this with our SOTP of 234p to derive our target price of 264p, reflecting the need to complete the transition to self commercialisation. ● On our initial projected consolidated EPS forecasts, Vectura's P/E drops to single digits by year 3 (FY2019), now driven mostly by Flutiform: a strong buy signal in our view. RBC Cap Mkts. Strategic rationale: Strategically, we see the deal enhancing Vectura’s capabilities (oral, pMDI and commercial manufacturing) but think the financial rationale is the main motive for the combination. Vectura has a larger pipeline but its partnered assets have only recently launched and its financial profile still less developed than SKP’s, which has a smaller pipeline but with key assets launched and delivering profit growth (FY15A EBITDA margin of 37.5%). Combined, we see the two offering a healthy pipeline of opportunities with a strong financial profile. Turbo charged financials: We choose not to update our forecasts (or valuation) until completion of the deal and instead provide a view on the combination below and within the note. The New Co will have an implied Mcap of £1.1bn and offer a revenue, EBITDA and EPS 3-year CAGR (FY17E-20E) of 31.7%, 41.3% and 32.1% respectively with a FCF yield of c10%. More importantly, the Group will become attactive on conventional multiple metrics, PE of 12.6x FY18E EPS (March YE) given the earnings ramp delivered by SKP. Valuation mixed: We think Vectura have paid a fair but full price for SKP which, when executed alongside recent share price weakness has magnified the potential dilution. That said, we acknowledge that acquisition targets that fit well rarely coincide with perfect market conditions. Our conventional valuation for Vectura (SoTP; DCF and rNPV) suggests fair value of New Co at c190p (down from 206p) once the deal completes. However, we think investors should focus on the New Co financial profile which shows the shares trading on an implied EV/EBITDA of sub 10x by FY18E and 12.6x FY18E EPS. Considering upcoming newsflow (VR315 in particular) alongside growth and cash generation metrics we believe a re-rating likely from these low levels given the growth on offer. Valuation: Given the risk associated with assets not yet approved by regulators or still in their launch phase we utilise a SoTP model; for partnered launched assets we utilise NPV analysis with a WACC rate of 7% (Vectura is net cash) and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection. For partnered pipeline assets we use risk-adjusted NPVs with a discount rate of 10%, standard industry associated risk adjustments and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection on the products. For wholly owned pipeline assets we also use a rNPV (again a discount rate of 10% and standard risk adjustments) but apply a terminal with a growth rate of -2.5%. This provides our price target of 205p and our Outperform rating, although near term newsflow on VR315 in the US and on both Utibron & Seebri assets (also US) may drive our valuation towards 230p. We have not updated our forecasts or valuation for the SKP merger, but provide sensitivity analysis to our forecasts and valuation within. Price target impediments: We see two key impediments to our price target and rating: 1. VR315 – The launch of VR315 in the US is arguably the most important launch from Vectura’s pipeline over the coming months. A generic of Advair (aka Seretide) we anticipate the product being directly substitutable and, with only one competitor (Mylan) in the short term we have modelled only partial price erosion. If this launch is delayed then this would erode an estimated c7p for each 6 month delay and we see downside risk as capped at c.50p to our valuation if the product fails to launch altogether. 2. Utibron & Seebri – Whilst we believe Novartis is unlikely to shelve these assets in the US, it could find a commercial partner given the cost of launching and as the market becomes more competitive. We see downside risk of c.20p to our valuation if the assets are not launched in the US. |
Posted at 16/3/2016 07:44 by martincc fins and ints for the past couple of years were all 9:00, see website |
Posted at 26/2/2016 09:45 by aceuk HBMN has been an investor in Skyepharma since 2001 and has taken a private equity-style approach, owning a significant proportion of the company (28.5% at 31 December 2015). It remained close to the business through a difficult period in 2008/09 when Flutiform failed to gain US approval, and was involved in a capital raising in 2014 that saw the company’s debt reduced substantially. Wicki says the HBMN team took the view that the business could be restructured and become profitable – a conviction that has been vindicated by the company’s recent results and a rising share price (up 464% over three years to 15 February, although it has fallen back slightly in market volatility since the start of the year).Wicki sees Skyepharma as a low-risk, stable investment – with products already successfully on the market, it does not have the binary risk characteristics of earlier-stage companies – and a potential source of cash in the future. He points out that the company has net cash and is generating substantial income from royalties (including from Pacira, spun out of the company in 2007), and has many options (including potential acquisitions of new technology) because it is now solidly financed. Edison research HBM |
Posted at 09/2/2016 23:48 by diesel Hi, yeh good points Stent.just trying to understand what has spooked investors here, yup the market is in turmoil but pharmas are normally a safe haven. |
Posted at 28/1/2016 14:07 by market sniper3 N+1 Singer Reiterates “CorporateRJanuary 28th, 2016 • 0 comments • Filed Under • by ABMN Staff SkyePharma PLC logoSkyePharma PLC (LON:SKP)‘s stock had its “corporateR Shares of SkyePharma PLC (LON:SKP) opened at 393.2500 on Thursday. The firm’s market cap is GBX 412.13 million. SkyePharma PLC has a 52 week low of GBX 247.00 and a 52 week high of GBX 414.45. The firm’s 50-day moving average price is GBX 373.99 and its 200-day moving average price is GBX 328.49. Other research analysts also recently issued research reports about the company. Stifel Nicolaus reiterated a “buy” rating and set a GBX 460 ($6.55) price target on shares of SkyePharma PLC in a report on Thursday. FinnCap reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of SkyePharma PLC in a report on Friday, January 22nd. Finally, RX Securities reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of SkyePharma PLC in a report on Wednesday, December 23rd. Skyepharma PLC (LON:SKP) is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the development and delivery of oral and inhalation pharmaceutical products. The Company’s products pipeline includes four inhalation products, 10 oral products, one topical product and one injectable product. The Company’s products include flutiform, Exparel, Paxil CR, Sular, Diclofenacratiopharm |
Posted at 28/1/2016 12:43 by market sniper3 SkyePharma PLC’s (SKP) “Buy” Rating Reiterated at Stifel NicolausJanuary 28th, 2016 • 0 comments • Filed Under • by ABMN Staff SkyePharma PLC logoSkyePharma PLC (LON:SKP)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by investment analysts at Stifel Nicolaus in a note issued to investors on Thursday, MarketBeat reports. They presently have a GBX 460 ($6.55) price objective on the stock. Stifel Nicolaus’ price target would suggest a potential upside of 17.50% from the stock’s current price. A number of other research firms have also recently commented on SKP. N+1 Singer restated a “corporateR Shares of SkyePharma PLC (LON:SKP) opened at 393.2500 on Thursday. The stock has a 50 day moving average of GBX 373.99 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 328.49. SkyePharma PLC has a 52 week low of GBX 247.00 and a 52 week high of GBX 414.45. The company’s market capitalization is GBX 412.13 million. Skyepharma PLC (LON:SKP) is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the development and delivery of oral and inhalation pharmaceutical products. The Company’s products pipeline includes four inhalation products, 10 oral products, one topical product and one injectable product. The Company’s products include flutiform, Exparel, Paxil CR, Sular, Diclofenacratiopharm |
Posted at 06/1/2016 17:56 by cap160 Posted on iii by Ambiorix and many thanks to him........and in the USAmbiorix1 2UP1. JMP Securities initiated coverage on Pacira Pharmaceuticals Inc (provides a lot of royalties to SKP) with a Market Outperform rating. The target price for Pacira is set to $92. Pacira Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $75.63 on Monday.2; ...and some Guru investors in the US seem to share the same faith. Mariko Gordon increased her stakes in Pacira during the third quarter. Gordon is the founder of Daruma Capital Management. She started the firm in 1995 with zero assets and now her portfolio is composed of 48 stocks with a total value of $1.6 billion. Clearly not Mrs. Nobody. The fund increased its holding in Pacira by 56.02% with an impact of 0.94% on its total assets. Reason for this is obviously the fact that during the third quarter, EXPAREL revenues grew 19% over the same period last year and the company ended the third quarter of 2015 with cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments and long-term investments of $164.4 million. Gordon is the largest guru shareholder followed by Jim Simons with 0.3% of shares outstanding, Paul Tudor Jones with 0.02% and Ron Baron with 0.02%. All this attention seems to bode well for SKP.Ambiorix. |
Posted at 01/12/2015 10:22 by cap160 Always nice and reassuring to see institutional investors increasing their holdings |
Posted at 15/9/2015 15:01 by kfp All the little momentum investors jumped in last week jumping back out again ! |
Posted at 14/9/2015 09:48 by cumnor Given the recent surge not unexpected as now in line with figures and reasonably priced. However as we all know it is the known unknowns-possible bid still likely as cheap by US standards, fluti sales growth etc US partner, which could catapult this into the next level which is keeping many of us and solid II investors here and tbh I see this much, much higher inna few years which is my timeline. we have recently seen the perils of trying to trade this for a few pence and hoping to get back in again lower. Its gone from 2.50 to 3.50 in a week on no news. Holding. imo |
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