Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[not my real name] 18/6/2018 12:48

Tanks a million,

Tanking like Thomas the tank engine in a massive fish tank being run over by a Chieftan tank!

NMRN

[johnwise] 18/6/2018 08:25

VIDEO

SIRIUS POLY4 a game changing product mp4

[potashking] 18/6/2018 01:17

Did you watch this video? It seems like their product has some serious salinity problems... hxxps://youtu.be/hxMYaOYP-KU

[potashking] 17/6/2018 20:28

What about harvestminerals.com and VerdeAgritech.com ?

[11_percent] 16/6/2018 22:37

PPVN,

Not sure where you got the impression that I don't consider the after hours trades valid.......I can assure you I do.

[thanksamillion] 16/6/2018 20:32

Remember, remember 26th September. I do like the way the share price chart is developing.

[ppvn] 16/6/2018 07:25

Hi 11%. If you cast your mind back to March when 106mm share volume appeared after hours, take a look at the share price movement on that day. CB holders need to sell lots of shares still (apols I haven't done the maths in a while I've been a bit busy) - if the share price was 34p would you sell 12.5mm for 33.3p?

I appreciate you don't necessarily consider the after hours trades valid, but I can assure you - if you ask a broker to sell at VWAP your trade will appear after hours too...

Post market volume for the past couple of weeks has been way above the 8-10% that the normal market can absorb. I'm personally confident it's another buyer but we shall see in a month or so.

[western5] 16/6/2018 03:41

SXX would not want Bh's to convert at discount to mkt. The last conv't sweetener conf'd.. both BH's and buyer will agree a 'fair' price.. today that appears 33-34p.

[11_percent] 15/6/2018 22:44

So long to Dirty Den...........

[11_percent] 15/6/2018 22:10

PPVN
15 Jun '18 - 16:42 - 32781 of 32782
0 0 1
Someone is buying these again. Been way over normal CB business for a week or two.

==============

Do you not mean selling.......not buying.

As muckshifter pointed out,

"On the other hand, if difficulties have prevented the loans etc from being tied up by then, perhaps the wiser bondholders would see the drift in expectations and get out in the next couple of months, or end up unable to convert profitably for the foreseeable future. My expectation is that the bondholders will be far better informed than the rest of us, with good contacts in the city, so much depends on the strength of the banks experts employed on due dilligence, and their view of Sirius’ position on the critical path programme as well as TorP orders and “leaks”. "

Word is out........Stage2 finance is in big trouble..........bondholders are converting and bailing.........hence the share price tanking........

[peteship] 15/6/2018 16:58

graph looks good I reckon, today's drop has hit the rising trend line from the low in Feb. But what do I know !! LOL

[ppvn] 15/6/2018 16:42

Someone is buying these again. Been way over normal CB business for a week or two.

[11_percent] 15/6/2018 14:58

Its tanking...........

[hazl] 15/6/2018 13:50

I think in the future the tangible assets will be more valued and as we have said so many times on this thread agriculture is on a high trend-wise according to what I've read.
A UK industry,too!

[muckshifter] 15/6/2018 12:34

Short-termist would be one way of looking at it hazl, but my view is that bondholders are by nature cautious, and more likely to bale out with a decent profit than stick for the long haul, if they felt that the situation might deteriorate in any significant way.

[hazl] 15/6/2018 12:26

Informed perhaps but short-termist maybe?

[muckshifter] 15/6/2018 11:30

Morning sar2jec,
My view is that there is almost no chance that the Convertibles will be redeemed / called at any time. My understanding of the original offer is that early redemption, after achieving any of the various trigger conditions, is entirely at the discretion of Sirius.

If, and that’s a big if imho, the bank loans and treasury guarantees are in place by your suggested September date, I believe the share price would go up enough to encourage and accelerate conversion. This would, imho, result in all the sensible bond holders taking a very nice profit long before the big construction risks reach a climax, which should completely clear the convertibles. But the subsequent sale of the shares gained by conversion might well take place over the following year or more of optimism that would follow stage 2 financing, before the serious stuff occurs.

On the other hand, if difficulties have prevented the loans etc from being tied up by then, perhaps the wiser bondholders would see the drift in expectations and get out in the next couple of months, or end up unable to convert profitably for the foreseeable future. My expectation is that the bondholders will be far better informed than the rest of us, with good contacts in the city, so much depends on the strength of the banks experts employed on due dilligence, and their view of Sirius’ position on the critical path programme as well as TorP orders and “leaks”. If this scenario came to pass, I think Sirius would have to be very careful with their cash position and this would preclude any redemption.

[johnwise] 15/6/2018 08:40

Given the news that has been released by Sirius Minerals in recent months, it is perhaps unsurprising that its share price has risen by 50% to 34p. It is on track to deliver its production facility in North Yorkshire on time and on budget, and continues to make progress with its overall strategy. For example, offtake agreements for a significant proportion of its planned production have already been signed, with there being sufficient time between now and first production in 2021 for it to sign further agreements.

In addition, its financing plans seem to be progressing as well as can be expected. Improved sentiment and a higher share price may suggest that appetite for the company’s business plan remains high. When it delivers on its Stage 2 financing, its stock price could enjoy further gains.

Ultimately, though, a level of 45p still seems cheap when you consider that the company aims to be producing 10m tonnes of POLY4 fertiliser by 2024. The profit margins at current prices and using expected cost guidance seem to be high, and this could lead to the stock generating impressive levels of profitability over the long run. The stock appears to be worth significantly more than that today due to the progress it has made. Therefore, further growth could be ahead.

AGM presentation May 2018
Video

[johnwise] 15/6/2018 07:32

VIDEO

Sirius Minerals Towards 2021: Our Project Team

[sar2jec] 14/6/2018 23:27

It has been very quiet on here over the last couple of weeks, so I thought I would try and stimulate some debate by asking for some thoughts on how events will play out once Sirius announce their call option on the remaining Convertible Bonds?

It is now 8 weeks since the results of the CB conversion incentive. By my reckoning, about 630m shares have been traded since then (or nearly 80m/week). This gives an average daily volume of about 16m.

On the basis that about 15% of these trades were CB trades (roughly based on the difference between buys and sells over the last 12 months), then we can write-off nearly 100m shares against the 800m that were known to remain outstanding at the time of the CB incentive results.

Now I know that these figures are somewhat unrefined and not necessarily a reliable guide as to what will happen in the future – particularly with announcements on TorPs and Stage 2 financing potentially around the corner – but assuming average volumes remain approximately the same over the next few months, these figures suggest (if my logic here is correct) that the 85% call option on the CB’s will be reached around the end of September at the latest.

This leads me to wonder what will happen when Sirius make that call (as I assume they will do so at the earliest opportunity). I recall reading somewhere that the CB holders are entitled to 3 month’s notice after the call is made, giving them a final opportunity to sell off the underlying shares before the bonds get redeemed at par (incidentally can anyone verify that 3 months is correct, as I can’t seem to find mention of this within the Investor Prospectus?). If this is indeed the case then presumably the share price could be set for a very sharp fall, as surely a race will kick in amongst the CB holders to sell off their remaining 195m shares within the 3-month notice period. Based on the current average volumes, they would be unlikely to achieve this without significantly lowering their asking price to somewhere close to the conversion price of 25p? Is my logic here broadly correct or am I seriously misunderstanding how the process of how Convertible Bonds are redeemed?

[potashking] 14/6/2018 01:33

I’ve been quietly following Sirius for a while. I came across this video on their product. Is this true? hxxps://youtu.be/hxMYaOYP-KU

[11_percent] 13/6/2018 12:06

Meanwhile......on a serious note....



Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK from next month.

The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.

Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.

[11_percent] 13/6/2018 12:02

Not a "midnight" one I trust.