Sinclair Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 30/4/2018 11:33

Be very surprised if Tosca pushed to have Sinclair go private at this juncture.Afterall,slowly,ponderously and with some disappointments (including wildcat California fires)the company is progressing.Could it be that the reduced outlook forecast was known to the persistent and urgent seller of stock over recent weeks.The AIM market never disappoints.

[alamaison5] 30/4/2018 11:28

100,000 15p 11:26. And one more...

[mfhmfh] 30/4/2018 10:28

Peel Hunt today reiterates buy recommendation and 42p target price

[alamaison5] 30/4/2018 09:50

TOSCA HAS 29% of SPH:

1) Healthcare company Circle Holdings is to delist from the London Stock Exchange next month when it is taken over by Toscafund.
The London-based hedge fund announced a takeover deal for Circle at the end of March.
Read more: Speedy Hire hammers expectations – "in spite" of Toscafund activism
Toscafund already owned a 26.75 per cent stake in Circle and offered 30p for each additional share, valuing the company to £75.2m.


2) LONDON (Alliance News) - AIM-listed InternetQ PLC on Tuesday said it was approached by a trio of investors comprising hedge fund Toscafund Asset Management LLP

[alamaison5] 30/4/2018 09:38

Two last trade:

Buy: 2018-04-30 09:35:05 15.01 8,923 Sell 1,339 O
buy: 2018-04-30 09:33:53 15.00 100,000 Sell 15,000 O

Real buying price is 15p. As i say follow the dosh, lol.
We'll see...

Directors:
17 Jan 18 Jeff Thompson Buy 200,000 @ 23.10 £46,200.00
16 Jan 18 Christopher Spooner Buy 200,000 @ 23.15 £46,300.00

[alamaison5] 30/4/2018 09:31

What I follow is the money. Tosca has been involved in few takeover in the recent years..
It will be gobbled up. Patience is the key. Buy when other people sell.
You know the score.
PS: RSI in oversold territory.

[steeplejack] 30/4/2018 09:25

Below is why the shares are off.The market is simply running out of patience.Tomorrow and tomorrow..."Headline US revenue performance in 2018 will mask more complex underlying trends. There have been no InstaLift(TM) sales in Q1 2018 as a result of over stocking in 2017. As previously announced Sinclair took direct control of the product from 1 April 2018 and has acquired Thermi's remaining inventory. While Sinclair now records full in-market revenues, gross margins will be reduced for the rest of 2018 as a result of the cost of buying back inventory, and in addition the Company will record an inventory write down of approximately GBP1.5 million in H1 2018. The Board expects US sales of approximately GBP3.0 million (on a constant currency basis) in 2018 and that the US direct operation will be EBITDA profitable in the year ending 31 December 2019."

[alamaison5] 30/4/2018 09:17

SPH: Another farce? Good results. Millions in credit. Fall by 12%, lol.
Tosca fund has 29%. Takeover...
Bought in 16,600

[steeplejack] 30/4/2018 08:51

Not that simple.The group is used to direct marketing in Europe,so doing the same in the US with Silhouette Instalift,is not a complete leap in the dark.The third para down is what the analysts would have latched on to,plus cash flow outflows.Forecasts for this year will be trimmed.On balance,I think things are moving in the right direction but as ever there are complications.OUTLOOKOver the last two years the Company has delivered total revenue growth in excess of 80% in the aesthetics portfolio. 2017 was another year of significant progress for Sinclair, notably achieving the stated aim to return to adjusted EBITDA profit following the 2015 disposal of the non-aesthetics business.Ex US, the Board expects to deliver at least mid-teens percentage revenue growth in 2018 with high marginal profitability. As in 2017 the Group's revenues will be second half weighted.Headline US revenue performance in 2018 will mask more complex underlying trends. There have been no InstaLift(TM) sales in Q1 2018 as a result of over stocking in 2017. As previously announced Sinclair took direct control of the product from 1 April 2018 and has acquired Thermi's remaining inventory. While Sinclair now records full in-market revenues, gross margins will be reduced for the rest of 2018 as a result of the cost of buying back inventory, and in addition the Company will record an inventory write down of approximately GBP1.5 million in H1 2018. The Board expects US sales of approximately GBP3.0 million (on a constant currency basis) in 2018 and that the US direct operation will be EBITDA profitable in the year ending 31 December 2019.At the adjusted EBITDA level, the Board expects the Group to remain profitable in 2018 despite the reduction of sales in the US, significant Ellansé(R) launch costs in Brazil and the incremental costs of the direct operation in South Korea.In summary, the Board believes that the difficulties in the US, while disappointing, are nonetheless temporary and the Silhouette InstaLift(TM) opportunity remains significant. The Board continues to expect an acceleration in revenue growth and operating leverage in 2019 as the business gains momentum in its key strategic markets including the US, Brazil, South Korea and the Middle East. In the medium to longer term, launches of Perfectha(R) Lidocaine, Silhouette Refine(TM), Ellansé(R) in the US and China, and Silhouette InstaLift(TM) in China, supported by robust aesthetic market fundamentals, are expected to drive sustainable premium growth for the Group.

[zipstuck] 30/4/2018 08:39

What is disappointing is why they thought they had a deal.

[steeplejack] 30/4/2018 08:25

Strikes me as a surly response to an ok set of results.It is of course likely that this share is rather badly researched and that share price reactions are mercurial.The trouble is the,the prospective PE rating has always been fairly generous.The company will have to put more meat on the bones as to why its decided to go it it alone on the distribution front.I don't have enough experience to know how radical a decision this is,but I suspect it might be a good deal more demanding than immediately seems apparent.

[mercer95] 30/4/2018 08:23

Results seem decent enough to me, no rights issue which was my biggest worry, I’m still treating Sinclair as a start up so I’m just gonna be patient with it.

[zipstuck] 30/4/2018 08:00

2nd half weighted

400K interest until 2020 minimum

3m marketing

[dealit] 30/4/2018 07:27

IMHO good set of results, let us hope that the Market agree about going it alone in the US.

[gurneyhalleck] 27/4/2018 14:19

Hi all been lurking on the thread for a while. Just topped up at 16.95. I originally came in at 33p so this gave me chance to average down.

Aside from the distributor, I can't see much has changed since I originally bought in, apart from sentiment and patience seeming to have gone south.

As everyone is saying, Monday will be interesting, and beyond that it's up to the marketing team.

[eggbaconandbubble] 27/4/2018 11:04

Kim jong-un could do with a bit of a lift!

I think all SPH share holders could do with a 'silhouette smile' right now!!

Roll on Monday.

[mercer95] 27/4/2018 10:39

The news out of Korea could prove to be a big bonus for Sinclair long term, I’m open to all forms of research so I took the time to watch the BBC documentry Korea;Plastic Surgery Capital of the World, massive market & demand which should benefit from the general feel good factor now some sense of calm has been reached by North & South, Sinclair are already established over there.

[steeplejack] 27/4/2018 09:27

Lets not forget that Tosca and the other large shareholders hold the whip hand here.Tosca can dictate what price they are prepared to provide monies.No need to orchestrate down the price,Tosca can just insist on a heavily discounted issue.

[cumnor] 27/4/2018 09:22

'There is an adjustment mechanism within the loan agreement such that in the event that Sinclair issues additional ordinary shares prior to conversion of the loan, EW will still receive a fixed 2.5% of the Company's then issued share capital at the time of conversion.'

Are they planing another fund raise to coincide with the results? maybe reason for selling over past couple of days. Not big enough to be II but certainly to be insiders?

[mercer95] 27/4/2018 08:43

The drop yesterday when compared with the volume of shares traded & number of trades just seemed way overdone to me,I’m looking forward to the results, good or bad I just want to know the situation GLA

[digger18] 27/4/2018 08:24

May well be right ref Schroders as no Holdings RNS today ref anyone else like Tosca.
May be worth punting a few more shares at this price,but probably still another 6 months before financials start to come through, as long as nothing has materially changed. A new US distributor might kick us off in the right direction.

[steeplejack] 26/4/2018 13:35

Interesting......you could well be right.It does have,'a let's just sell out regardless' feel about.We'll know on Monday.

[hashertu] 26/4/2018 13:13

The answer to the share price drop might be more prosaic.
On March 1, Schroders dropped below 5% (which is 25 million shares).
Some of these might have been held in the UK Growth Fund.
Management of this fund has been transferred to Baillie Gifford who plan to run a "concentrated portfolio of about 40 of their best investment ideas" (source Investors Chronicle).
I suspect BG are the sellers due to the change in investment direction, and not due to something lurking behind the woodshed.

[steeplejack] 26/4/2018 12:37

All very encouraging..........what it irritates me is "the mystery" surrounding this persistent and relentless fall in price from the mid 30s.Have we been misled,has a wheel unexpectedly fallen off the wagon,has management exaggerated product prospects.Something's amiss and Monday will either confirm the reason for the share price slide or show it to be erroneous.Sadly,experience tells me to expect the former.

[red ninja] 26/4/2018 12:34

Dealit,

Your enthusiasm does you credit.

However, don't you believe if they are so attractive there would be an offer or two on the table.