Shire Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 20/2/2018 23:21

Roche's patent dispute over haemophilia drug Hemlibra ...court's decision on the SHP motion for the preliminary injunction, expected summer 2018

[ruethewhirl] 20/2/2018 22:58

3000 will be the big test.

Serious psychological support there and it'll take more than the current ennui to get us through it imho.

Very tempted to top up at what very well may be the bottom.

JP Morgan state that there are no notable upside catalysts in the near term, but the same can be said of downside catalysts - results are out of the way now and barring some serious unforeseen negative developments over the next six months, I say we either rest in the doldrums for another few months as we approach half year, or begin ticking up.

Plus there's always the very real possibility of an approach, in which case we're off to the races.

[lonrho] 20/2/2018 18:19

USA price equivalent of 30.53 largely just catching up from friday price as US closed yesterday.

[justiceforthemany] 20/2/2018 17:56

I'm afraid if a bid was in the offing the city boys would know and the buys would have come flooding in by now. 3000p does seem ridiculous though and shows just how wrong the market prices shares sometimes both up and down. Some would call this 'manipulation'.

[toffeeman] 20/2/2018 17:54

Being trashed over the water - down 4% so far (18.00)

[philanderer] 20/2/2018 17:18

Toffeeman , not sure they would count as a share purchase, they're shares awarded by the company under the Shire Executive Annual Incentive scheme.

[mbmiah] 20/2/2018 16:21

I notice there have been no director buys.......bid on the table I reckon.

[toffeeman] 20/2/2018 16:15

What on earth would be the point of having analysts who gave the same forecasts:)?

[romeike] 20/2/2018 15:33

In over a decade as a Shire investor the analysts have never been even close with their price targets, and some have been consistently all over the place. I think I'll just ignore them.

[essentialinvestor] 20/2/2018 14:36

Brokers tend to be reactive. Price targets can be slashed or significantly
increased in an instant, sometimes without much fundamental change in a business
outlook. Like individual share prices, sentiment also seems to drive some
broker views.

The rationale behind a particular price target may be worth consideration,
however the price target themselves often seem like straws in the wind, just my take.

[romeike] 20/2/2018 14:32

Not often I have read something that is so obviously BS as the below:

"a potential NeuroScience spin-off that we do not see creating fundamental value"

[philanderer] 20/2/2018 13:26

or even TARFU ;-)

[philanderer] 20/2/2018 12:24

Detail:

JPMorgan Cazenove provides wrong medicine for Shire, downgrading its rating to ‘neutral’;


JPMorgan Cazenove provided the wrong medicine for Shire PLC (LON:SHP) shares today, downgrading its rating for the FTSE 100-listed drug maker to ‘neutral’; from ‘overweight217; after slashing its target price following recent results.

The US bank chopped its target back to 3,600p, down from 5,000p previously, with the shares trading at 3,070p currently, down 1.3% on last night’s close.

In a note to clients, the JPMorgan analysts said: “Valuation remains undemanding, but with few 2018 or 2019 catalysts beyond a potential NeuroScience spin, which we do not see creating fundamental value, we struggle to see outperformance this year.”

They added: “Following FY17 results, we have remodeled the split company. We believe the NeuroScience division has a 60% EBITDA margin, which implies the remainder Rare Disease division has a 37% EBITDA margin as of today, with expansion potential.

“Modelling NeuroScience standalone highlights the disproportionate earnings contribution from fairly shortlived Vyvanse cashflows; we estimate Vyvanse is c.25% of group EBITDA.”

The analysts said they arrive at their reduced 3,600p price target using both sum-of-the-parts and divisional net present value analysis.

They concluded: “With the key possible 2018 catalyst being a potential NeuroScience spin-off that we do not see creating fundamental value and with the Haemophilia overhang likely to still weigh on the Rare Disease business in 2018/19”.

proactiveinvestors.co.uk

[philanderer] 20/2/2018 11:18

sj , Investec and Soc Gen even put 8000p targets on 29th jan :-)

[mbmiah] 20/2/2018 11:12

It's all short term sentiment with some of these brokers.

[steeplejack] 20/2/2018 10:55

I've duplicated the forecasts below to point out just how draconian the protracted drop in forecasts have been.Less than six months ago,a number of brokers were suggesting 60 quid.Whether they had a Damascene experience in a City bar or things have changed in such a radical way that even the company are largely unaware of it,the brokers dramatic change in price targets is laughable.75 per cent remain buyers of Shire.They might be biochemists with Oxbridge degrees but frankly,they are a curiosity when it comes to giving useful investment guidance to folk trying to get a handle on this stock.

[mbmiah] 20/2/2018 10:51

If breaks 3000, then it really is downhill. Hold on be strong.

[steeplejack] 20/2/2018 10:48

- - Reiteration30-Oct-17 Deutsche Buy 3,694.50p 5,700.00p 5,700.00p Reiteration30-Oct-17 Credit Suisse Outperform 3,694.50p - 4,500.00p Reiteration30-Oct-17 Barclays Equal-weight 3,694.50p - 4,000.00p Reiteration30-Oct-17 Citigroup Buy 3,694.50p 5,500.00p 5,500.00p Reiteration13-Sep-17 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 4,046.50p 5,500.00p 5,300.00p Reiteration05-Sep-17 Deutsche Buy 3,921.00p 5,700.00p 6,000.00p Reiteration22-Aug-17 Citigroup Buy 3,725.00p - 6,300.00p Reiteration09-Aug-17 Berenberg Bank Buy 3,945.00p - 6,000.00p Reiteration25-Jul-17 RBC Capital Markets Outperform 4,239.50p 218.00p 214.00p Reiteration19-Jul-17 Shore Capital Buy 4,163.00p - - Reiteration11-Jul-17 HSBC Hold 4,159.00p 4,450.00p

[philanderer] 20/2/2018 10:30

They may well break down through 3000p today if the US market carries on the way their futures are pointing -140pts at the moment.

[steeplejack] 20/2/2018 10:26

That's a sharp drop in target price.I agree,it explains yesterday's retreat with some continued wash through today.This stock wants to test 30 quid.

[philanderer] 20/2/2018 10:10

And a downgrade this morning as well from JP Morgan from 'overweight' to 'neutral'

Target cut from 5000p to 3600p

In fact this may have been known to clients yesterday which may well have caused the share price drop.

[steeplejack] 20/2/2018 10:08

Good comments.Shire are their own worst enemy in appearing to prevaricate and that explains some of the price fall but offsetting factors should partially compensate.Isnt Shire vulnerable to a predator bidding and expediting the break up process and doesn't the increasingly low valuation support the suggestion.I can't understand the magnitude of the fall here,it almost feels conspiratorial,that there's some dark questions being asked of accounting or something like that.A simple analysis of trading prospects can't possibly explain such persistent share price weakness.Incidentally,sizeable short trade positions are not evident.