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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shire | SHP | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 4,690.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,690.00 | 4,690.00 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 23/9/2018 15:21 by montyhedge Not a done deal yet.https://www.thet |
Posted at 05/9/2018 10:49 by romeike For what it is worth, I've been a Shire shareholder since it was a really small company and I'm holding for this deal. Takeda are getting excellent value and they know it, meanwhile Shire continues to deliver strong sales performance. Investors with significant holdings will want to hold for the paper for tax purposes and also to benefit from the improving Takeda shareprice and what I expect to be increasingly favourable FX given the likely shenanigans ahead for GBP. |
Posted at 29/6/2018 06:13 by badwood Atsushi Seki, an analyst with UBS, wrote a note to clients last week, pointing out shareholder uncertainty and concern over the size of the deal. “Investors are taking a wait-and-see stance” toward the company stock. Seki upgraded Takeda stock to “buy” from “neutral” |
Posted at 05/6/2018 12:43 by fangorn2 @Kammy"Fumiyoshi Sakai, analyst at Credit Suisse, questioned whether the group could win the support of retail investors to block the Shire deal, saying Takeda had promised to maintain its current dividend policy. But he added: “T Interesting comment here. Thanks for the article. |
Posted at 04/6/2018 13:22 by fangorn2 Redtom,I hope Nigel has a Japanese tan. How lovely Haha just seen my typo...corrected! I totally agree that the Board of Takeda will not want to pull out. You're missing my point. It is not the Board than concerns me. In fact it is the Board's desire to get this done that gives me some hope of success. Yes we agree on this part. But the shareholders have to approve it and many are not Japanese and are not going to vote 'to save face'. That is such a naive view, wow. Welcome to the 21st Century of investing! Takeda Top 10 shareholders last time I looked Nippon Life Insurance Co. 44,700,685 5.62% The Vanguard Group, Inc. 30,224,945 3.80% Nomura Asset Management Co 24,970,397 3.14% Capital Research & Management 23,277,500 2.93% Causeway Capital Management LLC 20,895,826 2.63% Mondrian Investment Partners 18,060,917 2.27% Takeda Science Foundation 17,911,856 2.25% Wellington Management Co. LLP 15,852,289 1.99% BlackRock Fund Advisors 14,170,800 1.78% Barclays Bank Plc 13,931,306 1.75% Some interesting names there. Whilst I agree it isnt guaranteed that Takeda's shareholders will vote this through - the BOD would have been crazy to push for this leveraged buyout of Shire without consulting their top 10 institutional shareholders.. Irrespective of where this deal is happening (ie Japan), international funds want a good deal for their investors. The buck literally stops with them, period. Don't dispute that - the Japanese institutional shareholders will vote for the deal barring a major meltdown But is is most unlikely those non Japanese institutions haven't been in the loop from the off - given the repeated raised offers by Takeda's BOD it is most unlikely that shareholders havent been 1)Consulted 2) Given the nod of approval M&A doesnt happen on a whim - major shareholders are usually consulted. It is about money and the Takeda shareholders may force the hand of the Board For Japanese institutional investors, in similar fashion to Chinese, they take the long term view. The issue would be with be non japanese institutions. I don't know which way this will go as there is a long time to go and Weber will be sweet talking to Takeda shareholders. I concur - it's not a cert that Takeda's shareholders will sign off on the proposed deal but it is most unlikely, imo,that they will not. I hope he is successful in selling Takeda's future vision but I struggle when people post such black/white statements when we have already suffered a 23% fall in share price since first announced. Who's posting a black n white statement??? No one disputes that there is the possibility the deal wont happen. Always a chance of that. The question is what probability to ascribe to such an outcome. The deal in is the balance is all I am saying and not a done deal. Concur it's NOT done done & dusted yes But bottom line, Takeda Board will have to pull deal if they don't get the 2/3rds vote. And that is by no means certain despite the rose tinted spectacles that you wear. I'm not wearing rose tinted specs fyi! I just ascribe a higher probability on the deal closing for the simple reason that Takeda needs Shire - it's a $1bn break up fee to walk away,and the Japanese are Long term investors generally How is that rose tinted specs exactly? |
Posted at 16/5/2018 11:16 by redtom1 Hi Fangorn2, I don't have any evidence but I strongly suspect that they would have no issue holding US ADRs as compared to small individual investors. These are huge funds and institutions who hold all sorts of assets around the world so exchanging UK listed shares for US listed ADRs is no big deal.Whereas I think this could be an issue for a lot of PIs. Either their account restricts what it can hold or they have no desire to hold ADRs in a Japanese company. My point is that I suspect that the only really selling pressure will be from the small investors which is unlikely to make much impact on the share price. Having said all of this, I would be tempted to bail out early if the gap closed significantly and the Takeda element/fx went in out favour. My minimum exit price is around 4700p so a bit higher than many suggesting 4500p. I suspect that you may see your 4500p as we get closer but 4700p may be a push, unless the offer value goes north of 5000p. I personally hope that Weber does a great sell job to investors over the next few months so that they want to hold Takeda so that it recovers into the low Y5000s. This would push the value to say £51/52 which would give us all an acceptable exit even if we forgo a little value. |
Posted at 11/5/2018 12:35 by redtom1 Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. investors may belatedly be coming around to the view that the $62 billion purchase of Shire Plc is the best thing that could have happened to the Japanese drugmaker.Just consider the alternatives. To get the same U.S. exposure, and generate cost savings, Takeda might have looked to Celgene Corp. or Biogen Inc., according to Datamonitor Healthcare analyst Edward Thomason. The former has a burgeoning cellular immunotherapy presence and an impressive multiple myeloma portfolio, while the latter has a strong neuroscience focus. But buying Celgene or Biogen would have set Takeda back even more. Celgene’s market value has slipped but it’s still worth about $60 billion; Biogen, which generated revenue of $12.3 billion last year, is capitalized at $58 billion. Tack on the almost 65 percent premium that Takeda offered versus where Shire was trading a few weeks ago and you’re talking an awful lot of money. Smaller targets would have come with their own drawbacks. Connecticut-based Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc., with a market value of $26 billion, would have been a lot easier to digest, but it doesn’t have many promising drugs beyond current blockbuster Soliris. BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc., which competes with Shire in hemophilia medicine, is cheaper still but has a smaller U.S. exposure. Ultimately, Shire is an expensive acquisition, and the $1.4 billion in cost savings that Takeda is promising won’t move the needle much. The price tag will also put pressure on Takeda’s already strained finances, with the group planning to bring net borrowings to two times Ebitda within three to five years. The Osaka-based group’s desire for geographic reach and drug diversification also saw it overlook warts such as looming competition in Shire’s hemophilia business. But the company’s strength in rare-disease drugs is a big advantage. People requiring such pharmaceuticals are about the sickest patients you can get. They need treatment for life, and businesses can charge high prices. Maybe Takeda, like several other Japanese firms that have bought companies offshore, botches this one up. Moody’s Investors Service has already trimmed its credit rating, and the new level is under review for further downgrade. Holders of the company’s $500 million 2.45 percent notes are certainly rattled, sending the bonds down to a record low of 94.66 cents on the dollar Wednesday. Or maybe, in taking a risk, Takeda will cement its place in the global pharmaceuticals market. With its stock rallying as much as 3.7 percent Thursday, it seems some shareholders at least share the view that in Shire, Takeda has found the savior it sorely needed. |
Posted at 08/5/2018 09:40 by redtom1 Shire, the rare diseases specialist, has unanimously recommended its shareholders accept a takeover offer from Japanese group Takeda that values the company at about £46bn and adds to a wave of M&A activity in the pharma industry.The Dublin-based company has spent two weeks conducting due diligence on the offer of just over £49 a share, after rejecting four previous offers from Takeda due to concerns not only about the price but also the high proportion of stock compared to cash. The offer now being recommended represents a 59.6 per cent premium to Shire’s closing price of £30.70 on March 27, before the Japanese group revealed its interest in the company. Takeda is offering $30.33 (£22.35) in cash and 0.839 Takeda shares for each Shire share, which would lead to Shire shareholders owning approximately 50 per cent of the combined group. Shire shares opened up 4.9 per cent at £40.40 after the news on Tuesday morning. Susan Kilsby, chairman of Shire, said: “We firmly believe that this combination recognises the strong growth potential of our leading products and innovative pipeline and is in the best interests of our shareholders, our patients and the communities we serve.” Under UK takeover rules, Takeda had to make a statement on its intentions towards Shire no later than Tuesday. It said the deal would strengthen Takeda’s core therapeutic areas, “bringing together complementary positions in gastroenterology and neuroscience, and provide leading positions in rare diseases and plasma-derived therapies”. Takeda chief executive Christophe Weber said he expected the tie-up to deliver cost savings of at least $1.4bn, which may include a 6 to 7 per cent cut in the combined 52,000 workforce. Including the value of Shire’s debt, the deal is worth £59bn ($80bn) according to data from Dealogic, and would be the largest foreign acquisition by a Japanese company. However, there are questions about whether the deal will be consummated. Takeda’s shares have already fallen nearly 18 per cent since it revealed its interest in Shire. Some analysts believe another bidder could yet emerge and potentially buy Shire for a lower sum, provided the cash component was higher, given that some Shire investors are concerned about holding significant amounts of Takeda paper. Another potential risk to the deal is that Takeda could fail to secure a green light from its shareholders. In order to issue new shares to acquire Shire, Takeda needs to secure a two-thirds approval from shareholders holding one-third or more of the voting rights. Investor sentiment towards the deal has also been chilled by the fact Takeda would have to take on debt equal to nearly five times its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. But Takeda said on Tuesday that the substantial cash flow generation expected from the deal would enable the combined group “to de-lever quickly following completion”. Mr Weber said the company aimed to reduce debt to 2 times ebitda in three to five years, protecting its investment grade credit rating. Analysts say the key to winning shareholder approval depends on whether Mr Weber can convince sceptical investors that the risk of taking on more debt can be offset by Shire’s lucrative rare diseases portfolio — Shire has annual operating profits of $6bn versus Takeda’s $2bn. Kazuaki Hashiguchi, analyst at Daiwa Securities, said Takeda’s shareholders may have shifted from being passive traditional investors attracted to the Japanese group’s stable dividends and earnings to a more risk-tolerant group during the one-month sell-off since late March. “It seems likely that most of the existing shareholders who do not favour this deal have already sold their holdings. In that sense, there is sufficient possibility that the vote will be approved,” Mr Hashiguchi said. Delays from regulatory and competition bodies remain a possible obstacle, but analysts believe the chance of difficulties are relatively slight since there are few overlaps between the companies’ drug portfolios. |
Posted at 25/4/2018 07:04 by pete160 For those who are complaining, under the new offer (admittedly not yet paid) but we get £ 21.75 in cash. No so long ago SHP was trading at £ 29 (and still the bod did nothing for shareholder returns).With Takeda shares then, for not much risk I am therefore getting all of Shp's potential upside as well as Takeda's story as well and Takeda will be able to massively reduce the cost of the SHP borrowing either through lower japanese rates or from splitting or selling off the bits of SHP that SHP should have done. As for those who complain about US listed shares, the majority of significant holders, ie. not private investors, this really will not be an issue. How much of SHP is currently held be US investors anyway ? quite a bit. If people bemoan that Takeda have got a bargain at this price, it is the fault of the SHP bod, no-one else. rant over :-) |
Posted at 07/4/2018 14:09 by adamb1978 Does feel like an offer will be made at some point - whether its at a price which SHP would recommend or not though, I'm somewhat sceptical. Could potentially get into a situation where Takeda go to SHP's investors and try to strong arm management into a deal, and we see a couple increased offers. Even if it were rebuffed though, it would provide some pep to the share price, even after it was rejected.Also, can completely understand the comments that a lot of investors would take £45 per share. The share price has only be heading in one direction and the opportunity to take something like a 50% premium to where the price was prior to the speculation is something which financial investors would readily accept I feel. |
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