Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[qipincha] 21/11/2024 18:13

market cap of only 20m...
Y24 31.5m revenue...

[antonagis] 21/11/2024 18:03

Another dead cat bounce to get PURCHASEATTHETOP, his sidekick ZEUS and the clown crowd posting. This AIM disaster has had more dead cat bounces than most. It’s free entertainment watching all the heavily invested clowns coming out of the woodwork on this latest fractional rise before the inevitable drop. Loooooooooooooool

[zeus19] 21/11/2024 18:02

How are you going to vote? With your imaginary share holding?

[robertbarns1] 21/11/2024 17:48

this is toast!



time to short it

[robertbarns1] 21/11/2024 16:06

were was the 16p target

[robertbarns1] 21/11/2024 15:52

was the share price 1p in may






could be news priced in at .9p now

[purchaseatthetop] 21/11/2024 15:48

Q3 24 prescriptions were 43k so average 14.3k
Q2 24 prescriptions were 36k so average 12k
Q1 24 prescriptions were 28k so average 9.3k

Rise from mid Q2 to mid Q3 was 2.3k. So 700 a month.
Rise from mid Q1 to mid Q2 was 2.7k. So 900 a month.

If we get 51k in Q4 24 that is average 17k so a rise of 2.7k from Q3 so 900 a month rise.

Therefore
4/24 was 11.1k
5/24 was 12k
6/24 was 12.9k
7/24 was 13.6k
8/24 was 14.3k
9/24 was 15k

At the same time average NSP has risen by 50%. Not bad. If the 900 rise continues 12/24 will be 17.9k at $225. That is over $4m in US product sales in Dec 24 alone. $48m a year with no more growth. Puts the $70m 2025 target in reach. Very good.

[skcots48] 21/11/2024 15:45

We are going from total revenues of 17.5m 2023 to approx 31.5m 2024. Last year Accrufer revenues were 13.1m of the total 17.5m, with 4.4m from Viatris milestone. 80 percent rise in revenues and no Viatris milestone this year.Gradual progress

[skcots48] 21/11/2024 15:14

If I was Shield I'd drop reporting prescriptions and price per prescription from 2025. All that matters is growth in revenues quarter upon quarter. It's more reliable too compared to working out prescriptions via an agency

[lawson27] 21/11/2024 14:48

I think you will find it reports strong sales in Oct, another plank filtered

[krp10] 21/11/2024 14:35

Sales down?? Not mentioned at all in RNS. How did you come to this ?

[robertbarns1] 21/11/2024 14:32

looks like bad news as sales down .... await 2.6p entry again lads

[robertbarns1] 21/11/2024 14:14

sold out at 3.3p made a nice 40% today

[purchaseatthetop] 21/11/2024 13:50

“The Company is engaged with The Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Takeover Panel") to seek a waiver from the obligation of AOP Health to make an offer under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code and expects to convene a meeting of Shield's shareholders (the "General Meeting") before the end of 2024.”

21 days notice required usually and would have to be pre Xmas. So if this is true then only a couple of weeks for the notice.

[best1467] 21/11/2024 13:49

Look back AOP made an offer at 6p when they crossed 50% previously on the basis of the need to apply with regulatory protocol.
While the primary revenue driver was based on net selling price I too would have preferred prescribing growth to be the major driver.
Is the china Trial completion not a positive only you didn’t mention it

[pwhite73] 21/11/2024 13:42

Ok fair enough but that is tantamount to exactly what I'm saying. They had already known of the pending price increase so it was not the subject of supply and demand as many retail shareholders may have interpreted the RNS.

must dash.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/11/2024 13:39

Pwhite. You posted…

“I strongly suspect the increase in the price of the prescription would have already been contractual and known by the company. You can't just hike your price up 35% and expect your customers to pay let alone remain competitive. Indeed the company alludes to this in the update.”

Actually the price of a prescription does not change. This is about getting pre approval from PBMs before a prescription is written. Patients were given hugely discounted prescriptions until they got PBM approval when the insurance paid full price. This diluted the average revenue. They set up a back office team doing all this work for the salespersons. It is now paying dividends.

[pwhite73] 21/11/2024 13:34

patt - "Q4 they should have 51k so 17k per month now at $225. So $3.825m per month."

I strongly suspect the increase in the price of the prescription would have already been contractual and known by the company. You can't just hike your price up 35% and expect your customers to pay let alone remain competitive. Indeed the company alludes to this in the update.

RNS 21/11/24 - "the Company remains on track to meet the total Group revenue covenant target of $31.5 million for full year 2024 under the debt facility agreement with SWK Funding LLC."

Note the words 'remains on track'.

patt - "On the issue of a placing it seems AOP are ready to buy $10m at 4p"

It doesn't make any difference what price they pay for the shares whether 4p, 40p, or 400p STX still gets the $10m. AOP are already the largest shareholder with 39.84%. The law states if a company holds more than 29.99% of a share they have to make a takeover at the highest price in the last twelve months unless the FCA grants a waiver. That AOP own 39.84% of the shares suggests the FCA have already granted them a waiver. Why they are requesting another one I'm not quite sure and as I posted earlier normally the FCA grant waivers automatically for its money invested in a company to help it survive.

As I type the price is back down to 2.90p. Look at all the sells from 13:00 - 13:22. Do you think individual retail shareholders have all decided to sell at the same time and not a single buyer between 13:00 - 13:22.

Speak Later.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/11/2024 13:16

Pwhite….you posted…

“Strong sales meaning increased numbers? NO. The strong sales are a result of a 35% lift in the price of Accrufer which isn't due to any additional demand that I suspect had already been factored it as part of the sales pitch. What normally happens with new drugs is that they are initially priced competitively to gain market traction and then move up in price to where other similar type drugs are.”

I analysed this earlier. Only about 12% growth will be numbers.

….Q3 monthly they aversged 15.5k at $167. So $2.588m per month.

Q4 they should have 51k so 17k per month now at $225. So $3.825m per month.

Therefore 48% increase in monthly revenue over Q3
35% of this driven by rise in revenue per prescription
12% of this driven by rise in numbers of prescriptions.

On the issue of a placing it seems AOP are ready to buy $10m at 4p. It might be more likely that this RNS was for several reasons….

1) update shareholders,
2) enable directors to buy because now all data is available to shareholders,
3) get the share price close to 4p validating the AOP price.
4) it shows the strategy is working
April RNS “ We also set out to increase our net revenue per prescription, and saw that increase to $145/Rx in the second half of the year vs $119/Rx in the first half of the year. We have a number of initiatives directed to this goal coming in 2024, and expect this to continue to increase while we grow our total prescriptions.”; This RNS shows they have really delivered this.

If we get a TR1 for insider buys then that will prove 2).

There is nothing about todays RNS that is not positive.

[photon] 21/11/2024 13:16

Yes thanks for the Placing 101 guide. Seems unlikely that another separate placing is about to happen but you can never rule such things out entirely. I've thought AOP may need to keep their holding flat and also that they could have been the 2m and 1m buyer the other day and then had to reverse those the next day but who knows? Conjecture is rather pointless.

[pwhite73] 21/11/2024 13:06

You ignore the buys because the whole system works on retail shareholders buying and companies forward selling discount placing shares. This is why you can get a string of buys (10 - 15) and there is no movement in the share price, but one or two sells appear even of normal size and the price goes down. The MM are required by law to make a market in the shares but in reality they don't want any shares from retail shareholders because they have a shed load from the company to pass on.

I hope that makes sense.

[zeus19] 21/11/2024 12:53

I use to respect this guy and his informative posts but now hes just a troll like the others

[zeus19] 21/11/2024 12:40

30 million traded and share price up 17% but I bet you wont mention that