Shearwater Share Discussion Threads

[cheekyfella] 11/12/2018 21:51

The board will micromanage every angle to maximise revenue opportunities.

I'd be a buyer at these levels if it wasn't for the fact the wider economic picture is dire at the moment and already dragging the market down.

The only real red flag for me is the likelihood of consolidation.
2 billion shares is unwieldy and consolidations are a ballache unless accompanied by some outstanding news to bolster the new share price

The big big plus and why I'm here for the long term is that SWG are now positioned perfectly to address future cyber security market requirements outlined in the predictions for 2019 below.

Jake Moore, cyber security specialist at ESET, outlines his cyber security predictions for 2019.

It’s that time of year when we start to think about the New Year will bring and, in the ever-changing threat landscape, predicting what 2019 will have in store for cyber-security can be quite a challenging task.

However, just by looking back over the key events and trends that occurred in 2018, I think we can start to form a clearer understanding of what the big trends will be over the next 12 months.

Here are my cyber security predictions for 2019:

1. GDPR bounty hunters will be on the rise
I don’t think we’ve even seen the tip of the iceberg yet when it comes to hackers targeting big firms with this type of extortion. When cyber criminals take on a targeted organisation, they will be incredibly clued up on GDPR and the financial implications imposed by the Information Commissioners Office (ICO).

The attackers can extort an organisation, proving the company’s data has been breached and then informing the victim that they now have two choices – 1) pay the ICO fine of up to €20m / 4% of their annual global turnover or 2) pay the hackers’ fee. This fee could be far less and, by doing so, companies may not have to deal with reputation damage of the breach being made public.

According to a recent survey, some 47% of businesses would ‘definitely217; be willing to hand over a ransom if it meant avoiding reporting the breach to authorities. Likewise, another 30% said that they would consider paying off the cyber criminals.

We all know that the boardroom wants to get back on track in the aftermath of an attack and, paying the ransom may seem like the quickest way to resolve the issue. While ethically wrong, it keeps production moving and the C suite staff feels trapped. Considering that the cyber criminals are very much aware of this, it won’t take long before the hackers take advantage.

Also of interest: GDPR - myths, realities and how not to be a git!

2. Multi Factor Authentication will hit the SME market
Multi Factor Authentication, MFA, has taken a slow start to large organisations over the past few years but it slowly getting there and, in 2019, it will finally hit the mainstream in the small and medium business market too. Single factor log ins with overused passwords have been a nightmare for CISOs for years and the boards are finally waking up to this new technology such as personal security keys.

Right now, security keys are one of the most secure and efficient ways to use two factor authentication. A security key is a physical USB device you can use to authenticate into your account. Security keys are fairly resistant to phishing attacks, making them one of the best options available. Unlike code-based multiple factor authentication, phishing sites don’t have a great way to intercept information from security keys which helps protect the end point.

Also of interest: Can new authentication methods change business?

3. Machine Learning continues to make waves
Machine learning, (note not Artificial Intelligence) will continue to rise and become better at identifying cyber threats. Intelligence threat detection software continually improves due to the genuine nature of machine learning. In the next year, there will be multiple new uses for machine learning in all industries available for the taking.

Machine learning is allowing us to predict the future by using the past. As far as predictions go, I'm sure we will be reading more about companies that have discovered how to use these technologies to read and interpret data.

For example, ransomware presents a challenge to CISOs because the attacks often leave little forensic evidence in network activity logs. Machine learning technology, however, can help security analysts track micro-behaviors linked to ransomware, such as processes that interact with the entire file system in question which are continually progressing.

Although machine learning is becoming a commodity technology for cyber security providers, it does still come with some challenges for now and we can’t only rely on machine learning alone because it doesn’t catch everything - yet. Moreover, machine learning still deals with a hefty amount of false positives so it can only serve as a tool in the defence toolkit for now.

It’s also worth noting that, in amongst the term ‘Machine Learning’, ‘Artificial Intelligence’ (AI) sneaks in close behind. However, true AI is still science fiction for now and will continue to be misunderstood throughout 2019 – until it is finally here.

Also of interest: Advancing Machine Learning beyond the hype

4. Cyber insurance will be at front of mind
Cyber insurance will be a pertinent conversation topic amongst peers in 2019. I was recently chatting with the Head of Cyber Growth & Innovation for the Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport who agreed this will be a particular interesting topic of 2019 and possible changes are on the way.

Cyber insurance is still a grey area, however, it seems one thing is very well known amongst some companies and that is cyber insurers are paying criminals the ransoms to get them out of the sticky situation.

The market is currently booming and many insurers are offering varying levels of protection to customers who (personally) seem in the dark about a lot when it comes to cybersecurity. We all know that scaring tactics aren’t the best way to go about selling a product yet increasing hacking stories in the media are certainly making CEOs a bit twitchy.

But is insurance better than prevention? Does the C-suite think insurance is prevention? Even forgetting ethics for a moment, paying a criminal to receive your data back could be just as catastrophic should malware be transmitted along with the backup – along with your premium increasing in the next year with your insurer.

There is a general feeling that this insurance is being misused and will need intervention and redirection. The route of which it will go in is still unknown but general consensus is that organisations should be preventing cyber-attacks rather than relying on insurance.

[husbod] 11/12/2018 18:54

2.1m if you include the post period fund raising.The results were what you would expect of a company at this stage of its development imo and there were plenty of positives.Happy to hold even if more than unhappy with the share price

[opodio] 11/12/2018 16:24

not mucho casho lefto

[jammytass] 11/12/2018 16:22

new contracts win needed!!!

[2lb] 11/12/2018 12:13

Not a great set of interim results and a predicatable response from the market

Losses materially up, cash materially down (£2.5m to £0.5m)

Use of the AIM classic "positioned for growth" - generally a red flag.

Results are largely immaterial however given that the recent acquistion is now so dominant in repsect of the company performance.

2 billion shares in issue plus low cash balance are the worry.

BoD calling £0.3m EBITDA for the fully year.

Still some way to fall yet I would think......

[cheekyfella] 07/12/2018 11:31

"Following the achievement of certain performance hurdles, the Company has agreed the final earn out payment owing to Newable. In accordance with the asset purchase agreement this payment has been settled through the issuance and allotment of 612,017 new ordinary shares."

Decent - but even closer now to having 2 billion shares in circulation.
Unwieldy imo.
Fingers crossed for a decent set of results next week.

[cheekyfella] 05/12/2018 19:25

Consolidation bound to happen imo. Way too many shares in circulation.Bottom line is, value always wins out. Let's see what the numbers look like next week.As stated previously, it's unfortunate the Brexit vote coincides & the market won't like that outcome & will drag everything down with it.

[rockstar10] 05/12/2018 12:15

I am with 2lb on where the share price is heading in the short term.
I expect over the next couple of sets of results we probably will see little progress in profitability as revenue increases will probably be set off against a growth in central costs. Not unusual with acquisition profile.
As for share consolidation I would be careful what you wish for. Given how long the shares we suspended on the last fund raising who knows what could happen on a consolidation 😂

[cheekyfella] 30/11/2018 11:48

yep - your last point is the reason I invested in the company & you can draw your own conclusions why that might be ;-)

[channel pirate] 30/11/2018 11:25

Well very similar (if not exactly) to you, I also will bee looking for a 500k free float which will be sitting in my ISA, and have also thought the company will definitely consolidate at some time in the future, especially if they issue more shares in their vision of buying and building more companies in the Shearwater Group.

[cheekyfella] 30/11/2018 11:12

not dissimilar to me
fingers crossed for a positive outcome on all fronts
my objective is to end up with 500k as a free carry
have a feeling they may consolidate the shares though - there are way too many in circulation for this ever to be anything more than a low penny stock - if they have aspirations of a main market listing which is why I'm here - they will have it on their radar maybe for next year

[channel pirate] 30/11/2018 10:57

hello cheeky, yes the unknown to the pi, but I expect there are those wo do know. I have stopped buying like you say for the time being, and I have not off loaded any either, as I have a target figure for my holding here but have not reached it yet.

[cheekyfella] 30/11/2018 10:43

ha ha cp - it's a bit of a mystery - or is it?
as I said - I think the best policy right now is to sit in cash and wait
that Brexit vote and the way it will affect the market in general & SWG results being published on the same day could be uncomfortable for the share price here especially if the results are disappointing.
The 2,000,000 trades are Large Scale Deferrals btw - but the story behind them isn't clear at all & with that comes the faint whiff of insider info.

[nw99] 30/11/2018 10:34

Holding up because its s great company

[channel pirate] 30/11/2018 10:20

wow, the off loading builds, and they look like they want to get rid of before the Results are announced on the 11th Dec. Remarkable the share price is still holding up at the moment, or by me saying that will it be the "kiss of death" ?

[cheekyfella] 29/11/2018 12:19

Some buying - but also the rise heavily sold into still.

[nw99] 29/11/2018 08:32

Bought here looks like seller cleared

[butler4] 28/11/2018 13:09

Got to agree with you 2LB

[channel pirate] 28/11/2018 11:24

Nice 1,000,000 BUY trade (late reported) at 9-58am this morning

[2lb] 28/11/2018 10:30

Standing by my (much mocked) projection that this will drop to around 2.8p before beginning the climb back up to settle between 3.5p and 4p for quite some time

It is materially overvalued at present and the financials need to grow into the £60m MCAP.

It's overpaid for mediocre businesses that merely consult rather than have anything tangible in repsect of a product or service.

The sector will underpin it because the demand is out there and AIM has little to offer the private investor in this area.

Menawhile the BoD will draw cash out for fun because they will believe they are worth it. Time will tell.

[rockstar10] 28/11/2018 10:24

I would certainly hold off until we see some numbers. It’s too early to see much progress but what we don’t want to see is flat or going backwards. The business market is tough right now with many people sitting on decisions until Brexit or not becomes clearer. So key is getting the name/brand out there. We withave to wait to see how successful they have been with that.

[cheekyfella] 27/11/2018 15:30

I'm not adding to my position at the moment.
The persistent selling and unwinding of a big position before results doesn't exactly breed confidence...

nor does the fact that SWG announce their results on 11 December - the same day that May will undoubtedly lose the Brexit vote in Parliament is an unfortunate coincidence that won't help us here as I can't see the market reacting favourably to the latter.

[channel pirate] 27/11/2018 15:17

Results 2 weeks today - let's hope they are good and the direction of the share price is reversed. Let's hope there is no insider information being "acted upon". Still feel happy to hold at the moment, and even to add should in the unlikely event we see the wrong side of 3p.

[cheekyfella] 27/11/2018 14:44

Looks like there might be even less if that's them dumping again yesterday and today.

[channel pirate] 25/11/2018 09:28

So the RNS of the 23rd November looks to have revealed the identity of the "drip-drip" seller I have mentioned in previous posts - Spreadex. Not too many SWG shares left in Spreadex's pot now by the looks of things.