Shearwater Share Discussion Threads

[2lb] 26/4/2020 10:15

FLX was just tongue in cheek in response to the OSI suggestion , I don't actually think FLX will last the year out......Also you are wholly correct that the old CEO was useless and the core reason the the record of overpaying - they addressed that to their credit and booted him out making a material annual saving in the process so must be applauded for that.Don't forget that the largest private shareholder is still in hiding and under investigation for some very nasty allegations , with the possibility of a criminal court case coming that could see a large dumping of shares before huge year is out....

[2lb] 26/4/2020 10:10

FF - it's farcical because , even after the placing , SWG has no funds available to buy anything in the £2m to £20m revenue range that they are stating, unless there is more and more dilution in using expanded share capital to do so.A few million is not going to buy a profitable business in the space with half decent revenues.Posters are saying SWG should be 4p , so therefore valued at over 25x EBITDA , so targets are going to be what , a mere 20x. ?? Well , they have form in overpaying for anything and everything. Yes, Brookcourt has revenues at the £20m end but they paid £32m for it , how do you proposes they look at things in that range having raised £3.7m?

[earwacks] 25/4/2020 23:06

Looks pretty genuine to me. They have been quite clear what the placing is to be used for. The directors have taken part in the placing despite raising considerably more than they asked for. The placing would have remained open to end of April, but demand was such that it completed within hours. If they find a bigger company to takeover could always be part cash and shares.Cyber crime seems to be as popular as computer games so no shortage of work here.

[chester vase] 25/4/2020 16:22

Thanks 2LB..it seems for those who first bought
in around 7p will have to wait for an Mcap of around 200M
to break even..wow !
I've been lucky and able to mitigate my losses by dipping
in and out occasionally but that wasn't really the plan.
Ah well live in hope....

[jamesjjj] 25/4/2020 10:40

Shearwater is an interesting company. The placing was always going to risk a fall but it does appear it was done for good reasons "will enable the Group to capitalise on considerable growth opportunities within its markets". It does seem to give the impression that they are already looking at opportunities: "The advantages of taking this course of action will benefit all shareholders given the opportunities the Group is seeing" and "current global uncertainties are providing the Group with interesting opportunities to expand its reach at attractive valuations and accordingly". The fact that directors have also bought in is comforting. Maybe they have a good target lined up? Who knows?. Their products do seem to be well received on the whole as can be gleaned from their awards and their most recent eps seems good. Shorters will no doubt have targeted the share on the day in anticipation of a fall towards the placing price but fundamentally the company seems to be doing it to expand rather than for distress reasons.

[furgus ferret] 25/4/2020 08:21

I cannot see any reason why £20M ( not £20 !!) cyber targets are farcical. That was what Brookcourt (the flagship) came in for and the private sector in cyberspace is full of profitable small companies that will benefit from the exposure and market support that they would gain from being part of a plc. Why would their owners not do a deal for SWG paper and a bit of cash ?

What is 'flouted' about the EBTDA of £3.2M ?. It is auditable and a very creditable turn-around from last year. Why not promote the fact ?

As to FLX - that is just a nonsense suggestion. Why go to battle for an under-performing plc that does not want to be gobbled-up when there are willing partners comprising private companies that will readily do a deal.

I do agree though that SWG has paid far too much for its acquisitions. There is a story behind each one. Mo Stevens largely to blame.

The future is bright though !!

[2lb] 24/4/2020 18:59

Got shouted down CV

There is value in SWG , no doubt, but at present it is still overvalued.

Look at the history , this was very predictable and I made it clear that consolidation was a path to more dilution and further placings

The cash is because the coffers are about to be emptied by deferred M&A payments. More M&A clearly makes sense, but to talk about target, in cyber, of up to £20 revenues with a warchest of a few million is farcical

Secure envoy will do well in a remote working world - but what about everything else they do, why have NONE of the other entities been mentioned in any recent RNS???

£55m MCAP on a flouted EBITDA of £3.2m is too much - talk of it rising to 4p / 5p means breaking a £100m valuation because of the mass (and ongoing) dilution - that is simply not justifiable.

Placing
Dilution
Placing
Dilution
Placing
Dilution
Consolidation
Placing
Dilution

There is a pattern here that I can't quite put my finger on.............

The response on OSI is correct.

If you want to look at the most likely M&A then it will be FLX which is struggling and is an obvious target - its not very good and overvlaued itself so fits the SWG M&A mould perfectly.............

[channel pirate] 24/4/2020 17:21

mm's playing games this afternoon by gradually bringing the share price back up from 255p of this morning to 265p, only to drop it back down again late afternoon. Must admit to "dipping my toe in" too early by adding a small amount, 360 shares, @ 262p this morning before I had to go out - but having left some cash in the pot "just in case". Paid off as the 250 share Sell at 16-16pm this afternoon @ 249.68p was my BUY.

Have some Decent Money maturing from a 1 year bond next week, and decided not to roll it over at 1.5% that I was offered, so might park some of it up here if as expected we drop down nearer the Placing Price.

Have a good week-end all - stay safe.

[dennisbergkamp] 24/4/2020 17:04

If it makes it to close to break even, I’m out.

Also fed up of this and flx.

D

[jammytass] 24/4/2020 16:42

£240 on cards

[chester vase] 24/4/2020 16:32

I first bought these when they were Aurum mining and several times later thinking they had a great future. In my experience though all previous placings bought by us 'loyal' shareholders resulted in a huge negative result. If history is anything to go by I wouldn't buy in at 240 since its possible they will be trading around 200 very soon. I appreciate the BoD wanting to seize the opportunities raised by favourable circumstances but do feel like I've been kicked in the teeth. I am foolishly committed to this volatile share which reacts indifferently to good and bad news and hope to get out of the Marianas Trench one day !...Think you may be onto something JT 5p here we come..whatever happened to 2LB the voice of reason ?

[husbod] 24/4/2020 15:42

Agreed - no problem raising funds In this market speaks for itself imo.

[tole] 24/4/2020 15:07

That 10k dumped at 240p seems a little desperate. I'm still holding mine from under 200p after their initial Covid update so a little peeved with todays price action after hitting 300p a few days back but will add a few if it gets back to the placing price.

[montynj] 24/4/2020 14:26

Very positive that they raised £3.75m vs minimum £2.5m

[jamesjjj] 24/4/2020 12:28

When looking at the price you have to bear in mind that this is an MM stock which means that MM set the initial price. This is not always a reflection of what buyers or sellers initially think. What is comforting is the price has so far held its ground. The news on the whole looks if anything encouraging as one of the reasons of placing is "the Placing and the RCF will enable the Group to capitalise on considerable growth opportunities within its markets" and "the board of directors of the Company (the "Board" or the "Directors") confirms that it is exploring a number of near-term bolt-on, strategic acquisition opportunities with revenue ranging from approximately £2 million to £20 million, as well as the possibility of larger acquisition opportunities"

[earwacks] 24/4/2020 11:45

I was wondering how close to £2.40 this would get. Interesting how this rocketed to £2.90 yesterday which fortunately put me off. I dipped in at £2.58 this morning. I think all the 'sell' published trades have in fact been buying.Cant understand why they couldn't manage an overnight placing like every other placing recently. £2.5 million not exactly massive, but they have been tapping the market fairly consistently with good cause .

[husbod] 24/4/2020 11:43

Would like to think we've just about plateaud as we're now round under midway between the pre placing price and the placing price. Given the potential here I would be surprised if there are many more willing sellers at these levels although years of experience have long ago taught me that reason and logic are not necessarily comfortable bed fellows on the stock market.

[husbod] 24/4/2020 11:11

Cheers Hierarch but social media et moi do not get on so stuck with this forum I'm afraid.

[hierarch] 24/4/2020 10:40

Im unsure if anyone here uses twitter. Im in the process of making a group chat for a more fluid instant messaging conversation.

[husbod] 24/4/2020 10:39

No sooner said than done - further retrace in line with my buy.

[husbod] 24/4/2020 10:38

Just managed to tuck away a few at 260 which is odd given that that is shown as the sell price.This apparent success on my part might mean that the share price is due for a further retrace but should be ok in the relatively short term.So far as our old friend Covid is concerned I am comforted by the fact that North Korea has no cases although the little fat rocket man is nowhere to be seen.

[channel pirate] 24/4/2020 09:54

Buying price gradually coming down as you can buy for 262p now.

Wonder where the buy price will settle - how near to 240p that the II's can get them for.

I expect the fund raising is actually all done and dusted except for dotting the i's and crossing the t's

GLA

[courant] 24/4/2020 09:19

Fair point Hierarch, thanks!

[onjohn] 24/4/2020 09:09

placings every two days here