Shawbrook Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 29/4/2017 11:16

IC VIEW from 2 days ago:
We also think the offer undervalues the potential at Shawbrook, particularly considering the strength in recent trading. We recommend investors reject the offer.

[dendria] 29/4/2017 11:02

I'm still here. I was fortunate to get in at 133. Bidco offer far too cheap - I don't want it to go through but not sure how it's going to work out.

[valhamos] 29/4/2017 09:22

Banks generally are recovering. Bid was opportunistic and is too low; not much else to say.

[cc2014] 28/4/2017 21:04

Anyone left here but me?

Volume up today and for the first time significant buying at 342p. Iceberg seller at 342.0 that's been there for at least a couple of weeks.

It will be interesting to see if the buying at 342 continues and how long the seller lasts.

ALD moving up strongly over the last few days and therefore by implication value of SHAW bid looking less and less attractive

[cc2014] 08/4/2017 14:39

Shawbrook's (SHAW) largest shareholder, Pollen Street Capital, is not giving up. The asset manager has reasserted its bid for the challenger bank, as part of a consortium with private equity group BC Partners. However, the bidders have not increased their offer - which remains at 330p cash per share - but have instead opted for a takeover rather than scheme of arrangement. The former requires the consortium to secure more than 50 per cent acceptances and does not need the recommendation of the bank's board. The latter not only required board approval, but 75 per cent of acceptances of those voting.

The Shawbrook board has once again rebuffed the offer. A bank spokesperson cited previous statements regarding negative feedback from other major shareholders, and that the deal's terms undervalued the business. Shawbrook management is confident in its ability to deliver on its own growth strategy*.

The bidco's director, Lindsey McMurray, said the offer would provide "liquidity to those investors that seek it and create an ownership structure comprising long-term, supportive investors that will allow the company to adopt a more flexible approach to changing market dynamics".

IC VIEW:
The offer represents a 24 per cent premium to Shawbrook's closing price of 268p a share the day before the first offer. However, it also signifies just 9.7 times forecast earnings for 2017, or 1.6 times book value. We think this looks to be poor value for shareholders. For now, await documents.
Last IC View: Hold, 314p, 9 Mar 2017
*The original version of this article referred to the bidco's strategy, rather than Shawbrook's. That has been clarified.

[cc2014] 03/4/2017 18:59

Hmm,

Letters of intent dropped from 6% to 4% as Richmond have sold entire stake at 334p.

So, that leaves bidder with about 43.8%

[cc2014] 31/3/2017 13:38

I agree it's way too low but given that it could only manage 304 last night I'm not sure we can hope for better.

I note it's now 338 which seems a little odd compared with the offer price of 333. Not sure what that means. Pollen buying in market above 330 to ensure 50%. Is that allowed?

[darryn1] 31/3/2017 07:44

Interesting to see if the current offer will be acceptable. In my view it is too low.

[dendria] 31/3/2017 07:43

330p re-offered.

[cc2014] 30/3/2017 22:38

The price has slipped a little more than I'd like today. A price some 26p less than the bid price kind of suggests chance of a higher bid is no better than 50/50. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

[cc2014] 28/3/2017 20:52

Seems to be someone selling endless quantities at 315. Might be Richmond Group if I read the RNS's correctly. Can't blame them - they bought the same day as me at 133

[cc2014] 27/3/2017 20:31

More buying today. Seems to be a large seller at 315.
I can't find anything on the internet at all speculating on what will happen. Only a few days left to go.

[connor23] 24/3/2017 16:27

Could be buyers just trying to get in ahead of the wkd perhaps? Hopefully we will hear something over the wkd/Mon morning

[cc2014] 24/3/2017 15:51

Back at 315 on Friday afternoon. I'm confident a higher offer is on the cards as there's only a 15 premium now.

[cc2014] 17/3/2017 16:54

Interesting move into the close with someone unsuccessfully trying to buy 922k shares in the closing auction at 310.0. Move into close suggests someone wanted in before weekend possibly before press coverage or news leakage.

Closing auction on ALD even more bizarre with a massive 3.1m shares going through but at a perfectly sensible price. I do note it was options expiry this morning.

[future financier] 17/3/2017 10:17

Interesting new shareholder - Baupost Group with 1.58%. US Hedgies wanting a quick return?

[cc2014] 15/3/2017 20:24

With the share price at around 303 this gives a 10% upside with the dividend on 333 offer price.

It was trading around 250 before the offer so the downside is around 15%.

Given that a new offer would have to be around say 360-375p it suggests to me the market thinks things are finely balanced as to whether an improved offer will be made. Certainly no certainty.

Interesting times. I continue to hold

[future financier] 07/3/2017 11:45

Only had a quick look at results but even ignoring the £12m "blip" profit has only risen in line with loans - i.e. no benefit from increased "efficiency" from size. Reason for this is that the net interest margin has fallen by a tenth from 6.2% to 5.6%. Contrast this with Aldermore where NIM has fallen by half this from 3.63% to 3.51% on a similar growth in assets - and as a result profit was up 36%. Also Aldermore has suffered a less severe increase in its loan loss ratio.

Both banks have inefficiencies in their set-ups which are preventing them from achieving their potential - but I would say Aldermore is marginally ahead at the moment. Just have to wait and see how OSB is faring ........

[valhamos] 07/3/2017 08:49

Good set of results. 330p undervalues the business.

[future financier] 07/3/2017 08:47

Where does SHAW go from here.

40% shareholder is not happy with the status quo - and can see value in the business at 330p. Given the small increase between the original offer and the revised offer it is highly unlikely she will come back with the 360p plus that would be required to get the non-execs onside. So maybe she would be prepared to sell at 375p - does anybody want to pay this???

[dlewis1] 07/3/2017 08:16

Seems like the board is confident that they can deliver a better value than the 330 on offer. Interesting times ahead

[dendria] 07/3/2017 07:47

A strong set of results with a 2.7p div.

[dendria] 07/3/2017 07:07

Pollen's (Revised) Proposal has been rejected by the Board.

[cc2014] 04/3/2017 21:59

Ths - FF. I am aware Pollen floated Shawbrook at 300 and now want to buy it back at 330/333 although maybe they have bought some lower down. They obviously see something they didn't before.

It's been a good trade for me as I got all of mine at 133 and a good stake size too. No idea where to re-deploy the money but I guess I'll have a couple of months to decide that.

[roundup] 04/3/2017 13:09

I don't know, these challenger banks entering a sweet spot, Bank of England may be going to relax the covenants on small banks.