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Date Time Title Posts
22/6/201822:22Share Ideas: macro & micro.81,599
24/10/201616:40Ichimoku resource centre.162
08/12/201515:11SHA 2014 share comp7
13/4/201318:03Company Accounts & Valuation Ratios: video tuition.-
13/1/201209:38Candle resource centre.78

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DateSubject
25/5/2018
11:25
tewkesbury: Powerhouse Energy (PHE) possible 2000 bagger: englishlongbow 25 May '18 - 10:49 - 6554 of 6556 Keith Allaun says PHE could be a FTSE 100 company based on their UK rollout plans i.e. at least 300p share price; and they are expecting 2.5x more rollout in the EU, and roll out in other geographies like Australia, Far East, Midddle East, etc. So in terms of the share price: 300p for the UK + 750p for the EU + more elsewhere, gives an eventual share price well over 1000p (£10) making it a 2000+ bagger from here. £1000 investment now could be worth £2 million in future. That is a mind boggling return on investment.
08/5/2018
15:31
simon gordon: John Lee in the FT - 4/5/18: I write this having just returned from the two-day Mello private investors conference in Derby, where I spoke about my 60 years as a private investor. This highly entertaining event — covered elsewhere on these pages — had 500 or more investing enthusiasts and 50 companies either presenting or available to talk at stands. There was a real buzz about the place. The most absorbing session I attended was on profit warnings, given by Ed Page Croft from the team at Stockopedia, an investment website. All investors are on the receiving end of these from time to time, with the unwelcome news usually delivered at the start of the day. Stockopedia analysed 245 profits warnings made between January 2013 and August 2016 and made a number of findings. First, in the six months before the warning, the relevant PLC’s shares had fallen by an average 6 per cent; second, the average immediate fall on the warning was 19 per cent; third, the price decline continued over the next six months; and fourth, 12 months on, only 13 per cent of those shares were standing at a higher share price than that prevailing when the warning was issued. Finally, of the 245, 64 per cent delivered one warning, 25 per cent two, 5 per cent three, and 6 per cent four. The conclusion seems inescapable: unless there are special factors or one is taking a very long-term view (and particularly if the company concerned is not strong), then you should sell as soon as possible on the first warning. There are two points relating to my own holdings. As I operate a concentrated portfolio, my individual holdings are fairly large, thus much less marketable and easy to sell quickly. Second, while I am very much focused on small-cap companies, those I hold are generally strong and able to maintain or even increase dividends through difficult periods. Two recent examples come to mind: PZ Cussons and Air Partner. With the former, a large-cap healthcare and consumer goods manufacturer, difficult trading in the UK and Nigeria caused a warning in March that “profits for the full year will fall short of expectations”, resulting in an immediate 16 per cent fall in their shares. However, this is very much a long-term holding on which I still show a substantial profit. I have no qualms about its ability to maintain dividends; thankfully its shares have started to edge back up. Air Partner, a small-cap aviation services group, was rather more complex. It announced on April 3 that an “accounting issue” had been discovered dating back to 2010-11: “a non-cash item that has no bearing on the company’s cash balances”. The suggested total sum in question was £3.3m, and unfortunately this announcement, which advisers said had to be made immediately, raised more questions than answers. The shares plunged — investors being understandably unnerved — halving to 70p over the next few days. I believed this was a substantial overreaction, albeit a nasty blow to confidence, but one the company should be robust enough to withstand. A more reassuring announcement followed on April 11, indicating that the total cumulative impact will not exceed £4m, cash balances were strong and the dividend for the year was actually going to be increased. The shares have now recovered significantly, to around £1. For both PZ Cussons and Air Partner, after taking everything into account, I stayed put. At the end of my Mello presentation I felt compelled to draw investors’ attention to the worrying situation at failed stockbrokers Beaufort Securities, in which, thankfully, I have no involvement. For those of you, like me, who believed our assets with brokers — cash, shares in nominees, Isas and so on — were ringfenced and protected, then think again. Beaufort’s administrators, in this case accountants PwC, can seemingly take administration costs from clients’ funds where they are not covered by the failed firm’s assets. PwC has indicated that its administration could take four years and cost up to an eyebrow-raising £100m. Beaufort had 29,500 clients; the intention is that those with small funds will be repaid relatively soon and those up to £50,000 will be covered by the compensation scheme. Those above that — estimated to be as many as 700 — will bear the brunt of the costs and take the haircut. In the House of Lords I have put down a written question, “To ask her Majesty’s government what is the legal basis that allows administrators of failed stockbroking firms to levy charges on clients’ assets held by those firm”. I await a response. The Beaufort saga is only just starting to unfold. There are clearly serious wider implications here and it may well develop into a cause célèbre.
22/4/2018
09:32
sweepie2: Blockbuster report from Investor Show about Tern, market sensitive news leaked to attendees Further to yesterday’s brief post, I had the pleasure of sitting through the TERN presentation by Bruch Leith and the chance to talk to him in detail for about 15 minutes after. Bruce came across as a nice guy and indeed, he explained some of the personal issues that Al Sisto has had to deal with in the last 3 years and it puts things in perspective. Presentation Key points: - Al Sisto; career in Intel; encryption expert with expert knowledge of what’s needed in the IOT space. - Al Sisto California based but spends approx. 50% of his time in the UK. - Tern; the leading investment company in the IOT space. - Bruce Leith; primary role; finding new deals/investment companies (note; at last, people now in dedicated roles rather than trying to do everything). - Bruce; looking at 4 new investment companies , deals imminent , subject to term sheets and due diligence completion. - Working with Microsoft (possibly through In VMA). - Device Authority : hungry for cash due to growth; building product and distribution channels with Global technology companies - Intel deal; took 2 years to consumate; 7 months behind schedule mainly due to Intel internal process/sign offs. DA will handle authentication of Intel chip and through the Cloud - GEC; launched in USA last week (medical devices); launch re-scheduled to enable DA integration to be integral to the product. Enables 24/7 monitoring and treatment remote from hospital of patient condition but all data secured by DA. Huge market potential. - Strong play – authenticating sensors and at point of application; data remains secure throughout. - Products are now being rolled out; very well placed! Data analytics will also be a revenue growth area. - IOT take up by global tech has been slower than envisaged but now starting to gain traction and momentum. - 8 fold increase in security attacks in the last year; DA has a hack proof platform that automates at scale. - Strong patent suite that global’s cannot copy - DA life cycle has seen 12-24 month sales campaign followed by a 9-12 month product development/integration period. THIS IS WHY IT HAS TAKEN TIME TO REACH PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND PRODUCT ROLL OUT. Global tech companies are slow to progress due to internal approvals, budgets and priorities. - Now in a position to deploy Keyscaler globally with good evidence of several major customer contracts signed in the last 6 months. - THALES/GEMALTO; TO BUILD A BUSINESS AROUND DA/KEYSCLER; 2018-2021 RAPID GROWTH ENVISAGED - PTC; a $6 billion company with DA intrinsically linked! - Verticals/markets huge; sensors/data transmission now permeating every aspect of global world/life. - Emphasised high profile global partners. - THALES; LOOKING AT HUGE USA DEAL WITH ROBOTICS DELIVERING SURGICAL PROCEDURES – DA WILL BE INTEGRAL TO SECURITY. - AMAZING THINGS TO COME…… In VMA - Phenomenal order book; tripled revenue in 3 years to £1million and no signs of slowing - Key contracts with Howdens, MSE, MEM’s , GEC - Asset Minder can now be deployed within 3 months of enquiry; see huge potential and synergies with DA. Wrap up - Focus on improving investor communications via 3 monthly conference calls - PATENTS ARE EVRYTHING! THIS IS WHY COMPETITION IS STIFLED, DA ARE IN THE BOX SEAT AND GLOBALS GO TO DA FOR THE SOLUTION TO THEIR SECRUITY ISSUES - SaaS model ; recurring and growing revenues - BLENDING OF THE TERN COMPANIES TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED DISRUPTIVE SOLUTIONS THAT GLOBAL PLAYERS NEED! Conversation with Bruce Leith Bruce came across as a genuine and nice guy. It was clear the last 2-3 years has hurt the BOD as much as shareholders. For example, a number of Bruce’s family have shares in ISA’s bought at 14,12, 10, and 8 pence. It is clear the single issue that has stymied progress has been the time it takes to consummate a deal (typically 12-18 months) and then integrate Keyscaler into the eco system offer. This is due to global tech companies themselves struggling to shape their offer to the market and the way these companies deal with their supply chain in terms of budgets, approvals, gateways etc. Essentially, think of a timescale and double it. Intel took 18-24 months but things are moving rapidly; Keyscaler will be ‘on chip’ and in the cloud for the Intel solution. In summary, they are 12 months behind where they thought they’d be. The US fund raise is still open but didn’t take off due to the slow uptake of contracts + a poor understanding of what is being developed. Device Authority are talking with Microsoft and ARM (DA were approached); global’s will use DA rather than spend years developing in house; ALL ABOUT TIMING! Last week’s San Francisco conference went well with significant interest shown in DA. There is significant interest in DA and ‘players are circling’. They’ve already had offers that have been rejected (at above the current TERN market cap). The dilemma is the timing of sale of DA versus timing of value created by the global partnerships versus the cost of funding a growing company. Also, in order to attract institutional investors to TERN, they need to prove the business model by selling a company for a significant return. Whilst Bruce wouldn’t be directly drawn, my impression was a £75-100million offer (short term) will be considered. Bruce so stated a realistic aspiration that TERN will be valued at £100 million within 12 months. I left the event feeling extremely positive that our money is in safe hands and the share price will be multiples of what it is today in the coming months. My personal preference/issue is they find a way to keep DA for another 2 years unless a £250 million offer is tabled as there’s no reason why DA shouldn’t be valued at £1 billion + within 3 years. Ultimately, I cannot find a reason to sell my shares anywhere below £1. Hope this helps but DYOR,NAI.
16/4/2018
07:17
henryatkin: Can't help laughing at the ignorance of ramper posts above from ssrover. I recall the CEO of AVN on a similar interview claiming the share price would hit £28. That was in 2010 & I laughed at that one as well. If a CEO predicts outrageous future share prices - run for the hills.
20/3/2018
12:38
mad foetus: On IQE I haven't got much to add to hpcg's comments. Photonics is growing strongly and they predict a CAGR of 40-60% over the next 5 years. If that comes to pass and margins are maintained (and they should be) then the profits from photonics alone would be around £200m in 5 years time. The co is currently valued at just under a billion so lots of scope for the share price to increase. A share price of £10-15 would not look expensive if they do what they say. But that is five years away. They have to spend lots on R&D, though they are embedded with customers and have a very strong moat imo. I can't help but feel that the technology is world class and the management are doing OK, but are not world class. So I would be surprised if there wasn't a bid in the next year or so. I will continue to hold and to trade around the edges: like BUR and GLEN it is liquid, has a narrow spread and no stamp duty and so three or four times over the last month I have made a useful turn on my traders. One last point: the chairman's review was long but on a number of occasions did say that there were opportunities which could improve revenues markedly in several divisions and they would keep the market apprised of these: it is that sort of lack of newsflow which has played into the shorters hands in the past.
03/2/2018
17:10
henryatkin: I think P/E is a difficult ratio to make sense of. The FTSE all-share has over 100 listing with P/E >100 which seems ludicrous at first but it really isn't. The average P/E is 19 but if you consider a company like BARC its on a P/E of 140 because any time soon its expected to announce EPS of 16.6 compared to last years EPS of 1.34. If it hits its target it drops to a P/E of 11 which is quite reasonable. EdnondJ... AMZN seems a bubble like chart. Its P/E might be reasonable if they hit 2020 forecasts because the P/E could drop to around 20 but thats three years away to those results & based on no further share price rise. The slightest bad news gets them slaughtered. Thats what I'm finding with a lot of UK stocks. The really good growth ones are very highly rated & the slightest bit of negative news risks a huge overnight fall in share price. Thats too risky for me. Personally I prefer low PEG stocks with a P/E below the sector average.
29/1/2018
15:33
simon gordon: iii - 29/1/18: Autins (AUTG) 114.5p Autins (AUTG) is a prime example of a company that floats and soon after disappoints investors. It can be a long haul for investor confidence to recover. The company supplies noise and heat management insulation for cars, and it has been trading for more than five decades. That shows the underlying strength of the business, but it did not stop a major customer delaying orders and profit slumped within a year of floating. The chief executive resigned and he was replaced by former Hydro International boss Michael Jennings. There was a turnaround last year with underlying operating profit improving from £900,000 to £1.5 million. This is before the exceptional charges in each period. A 0.8p a share dividend indicates confidence in the future. Autins has operations in the UK, Germany and Sweden and has developed a new material called Neptune. There are growth prospects in automotive and other markets. The share price is still below the August 2016 placing price of 168p. The wife of non-executive director Terry Garthwaite bought 15,000 shares at 125p each earlier this month. To be fair, other directors were buying shares last year at higher share prices. This year's figures will be second-half weighted, so there may not be significant evidence of the extent of the recovery until later this year. ------ It has two new products licensed from a company in Korea: Neptune and Ozone. It looks to have growth drivers. One to keep an eye on. New CEO has plc experience.
09/1/2018
10:22
hpcg: Way, way too many market announcements to assimilate today. WINE - trading in line with the share price. Naked wines possibly showing signs of traction in the US and Australia. TAST - who new that terrible restaurants would end up having a hard time competing? Starts to find share price support from NAV. EGH - I thought results looked ok, but off 8% at pixel. The drop in Cable has been accommodated. BQE - ahead results well received. Lovely chart. Gigantic cash holding relative to market cap. I have held in the past, should never have sold really. AMC - hopeless russia nickel explorer can no longer get enthusiasm from drilling results. Shame as I like to short any spike on news. SDX - another gas well testing good rates and online. Market not enthused as yet. I hold. SAFE - FY metrics look ok, free cash up (though see notes), statutory profits down. I'm not sure what the achievable occupancy realistically is, but like for like ticked up a but. Dividend up by a third. 15 Notes in the announcement! TPT - Q1 ahead of 2017 by 3% on essentially the same store count. Market happy but a pointless investment IMO. PHE - full year business update with no financials. I guess only a matter of time before the next pump and dump comes along. RWA - nice fee growth especially in Europe, but in all territories. Europe small caps good for another stellar year I would think. For RWA itself just about up with expectations. PSN - estimates slightly ahead for FY, comforting forward looking statement. They now have their own brick plant. SMSN - market slightly disappointed in Q4 numbers, but it has had a good run along with the other tech giants. GHT - interesting trading update with some good growth numbers. Worth some time investigating I think. FXPO - prices up, volumes down. Debt down. Australia is predicting IO prices off 20% in 2018 so I think this has probably topped. GAW - blown last year out the water. I suspect the money has already been made though. So does the market judging by the reaction. MRW - Good LFL numbers. Looks like supermarkets have recovered somewhat from the german invasion. No interest to me other than as an economic indicator. DPH - Q1 numbers show some reasonable growth. Possibly ready to head up again after consolidation since the summer?
29/9/2017
06:47
temmujin: RKBeekeeper Investment Case: Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) Wednesday, Sep 06 2017 by Ash Deans 0 comments 3 Every now and then I come across a share that I was not expecting to find and that I’ve never heard anything about before, this is a classic example of one of those shares. Yesterday Zanaga Iron Ore Company popped up on my radar due to a very strange action in the share price and some very large trades moving through a stock that typically sees very few trades per day. This much un-loved stock may actually prove to be one of AIMs biggest movers this year! Let’s start with the fundementals Shares in issue: 279m Free Float: Approx: 75m (27%) Current MCap: £17m 52 Week High: 212p 52 Week Low: 4.6p All-time High: 212p (No dilution since this high!) All-time Low: 1.35p Cash in Bank: Approx $4.5m Zanaga Project Details The bare fact is that the company sits with a mineral resource situated in the Republic of Congo that is one of the world’s largest with up to 6.9bn tonnes and of which 2.1bn is iron ore at a 66% fe. These figures have been produced in compliance with the key JORC code and the iron ore NPV (after financing and net of production and transportation) has been valued at anywhere up to $966m net to ZIOC based upon the current iron price of approx $55/tonne. (If the price of Iron Ore moves back closer to the $80 range then this puts the value up to $1.4bn!!) The project is a 50/50 collaboration with Glencore ($40bn Mcap), with Glencore hold 1 share more than Zanaga to give them control of the project. Zanaga management have been playing the long game this last two years, steadily progressing the project through, in the most important instance, the ratification of its Mining Convention and the lodging of the Environmental Permit that is now VERY OVERDUE and that will be another potential major milestone in the progress towards exploitation of this world class ore resource. Next Catalyst This project is waiting on the Environmental Permit to be obtained, this was expected at the end of the 2016 fiscal year which means it is now several months overdue and can land any day now! Once the permit has been agreed this could spark a chain of events that will send this share price on a crazy journey. With the permit in place I would expect ZIOC to look at selling their stake in the project and due to Glencore’s huge success over the past couple of years they are now in a cash rich position and according to their chairman they are looking to buy out projects that they already have a stake in. “We are looking for opportunities around,” he said, adding Glencore was particularly interested in assets where it already had stakes or partnerships. This would put ZIOC firmly on their radar, the only outstanding issue being the Environmental Permit which should land very soon. My View: What happens next Based on my research I strongly believe that once the Environmental Permit has been obtained ZIOC will look to sell their half of the project, either to their partner Glencore or to another party, potentially a Chinese interest as there have been rumours of interest from China in the past. This is backed up by the share transfer announced on the 3rd April 2017, which I believe was to get everything ready for the sale of the asset. I also see the directors holding a huge percentage of the shares in issue here which is a sign of confidence in my mind that they know what is coming. It would not surprise me if the deal is already in place and the permit being obtained is the catalyst to finalise it. In regards to the price for the sale of the asset, based on it being one of the world’s leading iron ore assets I would be surprised if it were to sell for less than $100m (fire sale price), with my estimate being somewhere between $200m-$300m. When you compare this to the current Mcap of £17m you can see the huge value here! The Mcap appears to only be this low as it is so far off people’s radars at the moment and the overdue nature of the Environmental Permit. Downsides? Are there any risks here? Of course, as with all shares there is a potential risk here that there will be further delay in the Environmental Permit, or that it might not be granted. However, given that all other permits and licenses have been obtained I see this as extremely unlikely. The risk to reward here is huge in my mind. Very low risk, massive reward. Targets The movement in the share price here is going to be driven by the Environmental Permit being obtained… On that news I would expect the share price to move to around 50p per share (600%+ Rise) I would then expect the share price to continue to rise up to the point of the asset sale, which would likely be over £1 per share (1300%+ Rise) Due to the Very Low free float in this share it moves incredibly quickly which will make it very difficult to by once the RNS lands so this is one you want to be in before the news lands. If you wish to check the figures here in this post then I suggest you take a look at the most recent investor presentation here to get an understanding of the size of this asset: hxxp://www.zanagairon.com/pdfs/ZIOC-Investor-Presentation_21-Sept-2016.pdf The share price at the time of writing this post was 6.125p Note: I have emailed the company to obtain answers to a couple of outstanding questions. I will update this post once I get a reply.
06/11/2016
14:44
skyship: Barbarian at the Gate suggests opportunity for LSR ========================================= LSR has been a bit of a rollercoaster this year. Starting at 27p they rose to 32p in March, succumbed to 25p over the Summer before rising yet again to 32p in September – since when they have drifted back to 27.75p-28.0p. All in all a great stock for the swing trader. The recent spike to 32p was due to an announcement of a 19.1m share stake (23.1%) picked up by investment company Thalassa Holdings (THAL) at prices up to 34p. Some of their stock (2m shares) seems to have come from Damille (DIL2) who declared a small reduction in their stake down to 18.3m shares (22.2%). So, what is going on; and do the shares again offer good value at 28p? Well, what looks pretty clear is that neither DIL2 or THAL can afford to make a general offer for the Company. Neither has the firepower for one thing. DIL2 is in liquidation mode, so they are looking for the most profitable way out. THAL is the new kid on the block and is run by a bit of an eccentric player in Duncan Soukup. He has now stated he is looking for an investment policy review and will be requisitioning an EGM. LSR has stated: “Your Board believes that the proposals indicated by Mr Soukup would be highly detrimental to the interests of shareholders in general, would destabilise relationships with critical stakeholders and would be very disruptive of the programme that the Board has in hand for executing the strategy approved by shareholders.” Yah, boo humbug to that. What matter that the THAL intervention may upset DIL2 or likely upset the cosy Board who have done very little over the past two years. Though to be fair it does seem as though the Board did get quite close to selling the 2nd half of the property portfolio to a single buyer; but late in the game they walked away. Brexit fears a possibility – who knows? Anyway, if THAL do requisition that EGM – then GAME ON. Surely both the Board and THAL have to lay out their case for the best route to shareholder value. With an NAV well North of 40p, such discussion has to be viewed as a positive for a 28p share price. So why the lumpy seller holding the share price below 30p? Well, if you are a holder like Thames River Capital (F&C Asset Management) who recently sold down 70% of their holding at c34p leaving a rump of 3.2m shares valued at c£900k, why not just get out of the game altogether by selling what you can in the Market, aided by the arrival of buyers motivated by corporate activity. The seller may not be Thames River, but whoever, the game is afoot and the ample discount promises upside. Personally I was waiting for the Finals in mid-December to confirm the 30th September NAV and provide a statement of the forward strategy. Surely the Board will have to bring forward those two elements if they are to make a reasonable case to stay in place and continue to manage the future of LSR. I've topped up my holding with a few more at 28p, essentially buying back the few I released on the "THAL spike" – that’s a full 17.6% lower than the price THAL paid just 8 weeks ago and a 35% discount to the last stated NAV of 43p.
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