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Date Time Title Posts
17/10/201820:00Share Ideas: macro & micro.84,816
24/10/201616:40Ichimoku resource centre.162
08/12/201515:11SHA 2014 share comp7
13/4/201318:03Company Accounts & Valuation Ratios: video tuition.-
13/1/201209:38Candle resource centre.78

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DateSubject
10/10/2018
17:54
hpcg: VOD is going down because its still paying the same dividend it did when it owned 49.5% of Verizon Mobile. Given its internal growth rate, which is slow, and an upcoming investment cycle, this is clearly not sustainable. Given its low growth it has to be traded out of. In addition some people buy entirely for yield, without considering how that yield is generated and when the dividend is halved the share price will drop consequently, depending on how far it has fallen. The ideal time to buy is at the nadir of the dividend cut reaction because ironically it might well turn in to a place for long only funds to hide out. BUR has been discussed, forecasting profits is difficult. No point me repeating what Ptolemy wrote, that. There is always a reason why share prices drop, just as there is for them to rise. Those reasons might turn out to be wrong as the future unfolds, but they are there for the potential investor, i.e. the people that set the price.
23/9/2018
19:04
henryatkin: I'm trying to get my head around Labour's thinking on nationalisation. From what I am making out if you use SVT as an example the Market Cap is 4,540m but the company carries 5,500m of debt so Labour are suggesting that the the government takes on the debt & shareholders are left with nothing. Using NAV the company is only worth 995m so either way shareholders (including UK pension funds) are left with nothing. On that basis I think the share price could have a lot more downside. Similar goes for other electricity & water companies.
18/9/2018
16:28
skyship: Hosede – Are these fellows friends of yours? Sorry a bit long….but CRV’s comments well worth the read: As mentioned in previous communications with shareholders, it is our belief that risks to the global economy in general and the capital markets in particular are misunderstood and greatly underestimated. Asset prices have been wildly distorted by nearly a decade of aggressive monetary policy while fiscal policy remains equally accommodative for politicians accustomed to making generous promises to an electorate unwilling to pay for ever greater government largesse. The effects of these twin phenomenon include: Listed shares trading at historically high prices, bonds trading at historically high prices (low rates) and an explosion in public and private sector debt. Globally, the total amount of government debt now exceeds $63.1 trillion, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of International Monetary Fund data. Corporate debt continues to grow as a percentage of global new issuances. According to data provided by Deal Logic corporations borrowed 55% of the $6.8 trillion in syndicated bond sales completed in 2017. Where did these record borrowings go? Certainly some of the proceeds went towards productive capital investment; bridges and ports for governments and new plant and equipment for companies. However, we suspect far more went to towards social welfare spending, military adventures and public sector pay for the government borrowers and share buy backs and dividend recapitalizations for corporate debtors. On the corporate side, where we spend our time analysing balance sheets and share prices, the continuation of share buybacks accelerated. There is nothing inherently wrong with buy backs. In fact a share buy back can be one of the most effective tools for increasing shareholder value. When the shares of a publicly traded company are selling at a discount to their intrinsic value and the company is generating free cash flow the highest and best use of capital may indeed be reducing the shares in issue. Sadly, we are not seeing much of that. What we are seeing is well paid managers, who own very little of the company they manage, spending shareholder's funds to purchase shares at or near all-time highs (Earnings multiple and share price). This has the effect of increasing earnings per share in the short term and thus often triggering bonus packages for management that further takes more capital out of the company. This capital may well be needed in the future. In many cases shareholders fail to notice that their employees with very little skin in the game, are making decisions that maximise their compensation while they have little or no exposure to future downside. This lack of skin in the game is rapidly becoming a threat to long term shareholders and will become readily apparent at the first economic downturn or financial crisis. It also continues completely unchecked in an environment where individual securities are purchased largely because of the money pouring into passive funds. With this market dynamic as a framework, poor decisions can be rewarded as long as the index continues to attract net capital flows. INVESTMENT MANAGER'S REPORT FOR THE SIX MONTH PERIODED 30 NOVEMBER 2017 As discussed at the opening of this report, we believe we are in a period where the market perceives the risks to be far less than reality. At some point sooner rather than later, we believe there will be a very disruptive reversal which will at a minimum see asset prices reverting to the historical mean. Or it could be much worse. Rather than mean reversal, we may experience an asymmetrical reversal that brings asset prices down to well below historical averages as measured by earnings multiples in shares or yield in bonds and property. We believe the latter scenario becomes more and more likely as the 'everything bubble' continues to inflate. We may be wrong. Perhaps we fail to comprehend a new economic paradigm. If this is the case than we shareholders will have to reconcile the opportunity cost of a lost decade when almost everything except Craven House shares rose in price. Perhaps we should have spent the past half decade chasing expensive deals geared to the maximum level without worrying about the downside. If, however, as we expect, this time is not different, we should be in an excellent position to capitalise on distressed prices sometime in the not too distant future. Desmond Holdings Ltd, Investment Manager to Craven House Capital Plc
28/8/2018
11:43
beeks of arabia: Filtronic (FTC) certainly starting to garner some attention now - up 11% currently.5G seems to be getting more traction and Nokia (Filtronics big customer) getting a good slice of POC work for this. I'd expect the share price to overshoot its potential on 5G hype - I'm not one to give price estimates however can see multibagger potential.As always dyor. I was (again as usual) a week or two early in to the share!
25/6/2018
15:59
hpcg: The great thing about quarterly reporting is one gets to adjust quickly to a change in trend. A PE of 25 is fine so long as a company can up its profits by 25% in the next 12 months. When the economy and more specifically a company is growing faster over time then one can buy at a higher multiple because one can anticipate a higher multiple, or at worst that the company will still have a higher share price even if the multiple compresses a bit. However if growth slows the multiple compression is not self regulating with a static price, the price also has to drop. So the question is: after the as good as it gets Q2 will profit growth and the share price have adjusted for the slower growth in the next 12 months? Apologies, as the table below is unlikely to display well but it models a constant 25% YoY growth and PEG of 1 compared with a second model where the growth drops to 20%. To maintain a PEG of 1 the share price must remain the same (actually drop a bit, but not much). In terms of share price behaviour this literally means a year of consolidation, after which the price can start moving up, but at a slower pace. The real world is not as clean and the bigger the disconnect between current expectations and new expectations the worse the share price reaction. Go from a price which assumes 25% growth to one which assumes 15% growth and the share price needs to drop by a third and it will take 4 years to recover to where it was. A chart of CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill, is a good illustration of a reset and new assumed lower growth trajectory. Consolidation and correction are just the market following some simple mathematical guidance based on growth expectations. price now 100 195.3125 244.140625 305.1757813 381.4697266 476.8371582 profit in 12 months 5 6.25 7.8125 9.765625 12.20703125 15.25878906 forward PE 25 25 25 25 25 25 PEG 1 1 1 1 1 1 profit now 2 5 6.25 7.8125 9.765625 12.20703125 trailing PE 50 39.0625 39.0625 39.0625 39.0625 39.0625 growth to 20% price now 100 195.3125 187.5 225 270 324 profit in 12 months 5 6.25 7.8125 9.375 11.25 13.5 forward PE 25 25 20 20 20 20 PEG 1 1 1 1 1 1 profit now 2 5 6.25 7.8125 9.375 11.25 trailing PE 50 39.0625 30 28.8 28.8 28.8
25/5/2018
11:25
tewkesbury: Powerhouse Energy (PHE) possible 2000 bagger: englishlongbow 25 May '18 - 10:49 - 6554 of 6556 Keith Allaun says PHE could be a FTSE 100 company based on their UK rollout plans i.e. at least 300p share price; and they are expecting 2.5x more rollout in the EU, and roll out in other geographies like Australia, Far East, Midddle East, etc. So in terms of the share price: 300p for the UK + 750p for the EU + more elsewhere, gives an eventual share price well over 1000p (£10) making it a 2000+ bagger from here. £1000 investment now could be worth £2 million in future. That is a mind boggling return on investment.
08/5/2018
15:31
simon gordon: John Lee in the FT - 4/5/18: I write this having just returned from the two-day Mello private investors conference in Derby, where I spoke about my 60 years as a private investor. This highly entertaining event — covered elsewhere on these pages — had 500 or more investing enthusiasts and 50 companies either presenting or available to talk at stands. There was a real buzz about the place. The most absorbing session I attended was on profit warnings, given by Ed Page Croft from the team at Stockopedia, an investment website. All investors are on the receiving end of these from time to time, with the unwelcome news usually delivered at the start of the day. Stockopedia analysed 245 profits warnings made between January 2013 and August 2016 and made a number of findings. First, in the six months before the warning, the relevant PLC’s shares had fallen by an average 6 per cent; second, the average immediate fall on the warning was 19 per cent; third, the price decline continued over the next six months; and fourth, 12 months on, only 13 per cent of those shares were standing at a higher share price than that prevailing when the warning was issued. Finally, of the 245, 64 per cent delivered one warning, 25 per cent two, 5 per cent three, and 6 per cent four. The conclusion seems inescapable: unless there are special factors or one is taking a very long-term view (and particularly if the company concerned is not strong), then you should sell as soon as possible on the first warning. There are two points relating to my own holdings. As I operate a concentrated portfolio, my individual holdings are fairly large, thus much less marketable and easy to sell quickly. Second, while I am very much focused on small-cap companies, those I hold are generally strong and able to maintain or even increase dividends through difficult periods. Two recent examples come to mind: PZ Cussons and Air Partner. With the former, a large-cap healthcare and consumer goods manufacturer, difficult trading in the UK and Nigeria caused a warning in March that “profits for the full year will fall short of expectations”, resulting in an immediate 16 per cent fall in their shares. However, this is very much a long-term holding on which I still show a substantial profit. I have no qualms about its ability to maintain dividends; thankfully its shares have started to edge back up. Air Partner, a small-cap aviation services group, was rather more complex. It announced on April 3 that an “accounting issue” had been discovered dating back to 2010-11: “a non-cash item that has no bearing on the company’s cash balances”. The suggested total sum in question was £3.3m, and unfortunately this announcement, which advisers said had to be made immediately, raised more questions than answers. The shares plunged — investors being understandably unnerved — halving to 70p over the next few days. I believed this was a substantial overreaction, albeit a nasty blow to confidence, but one the company should be robust enough to withstand. A more reassuring announcement followed on April 11, indicating that the total cumulative impact will not exceed £4m, cash balances were strong and the dividend for the year was actually going to be increased. The shares have now recovered significantly, to around £1. For both PZ Cussons and Air Partner, after taking everything into account, I stayed put. At the end of my Mello presentation I felt compelled to draw investors’ attention to the worrying situation at failed stockbrokers Beaufort Securities, in which, thankfully, I have no involvement. For those of you, like me, who believed our assets with brokers — cash, shares in nominees, Isas and so on — were ringfenced and protected, then think again. Beaufort’s administrators, in this case accountants PwC, can seemingly take administration costs from clients’ funds where they are not covered by the failed firm’s assets. PwC has indicated that its administration could take four years and cost up to an eyebrow-raising £100m. Beaufort had 29,500 clients; the intention is that those with small funds will be repaid relatively soon and those up to £50,000 will be covered by the compensation scheme. Those above that — estimated to be as many as 700 — will bear the brunt of the costs and take the haircut. In the House of Lords I have put down a written question, “To ask her Majesty’s government what is the legal basis that allows administrators of failed stockbroking firms to levy charges on clients’ assets held by those firm”. I await a response. The Beaufort saga is only just starting to unfold. There are clearly serious wider implications here and it may well develop into a cause célèbre.
22/4/2018
09:32
sweepie2: Blockbuster report from Investor Show about Tern, market sensitive news leaked to attendees Further to yesterday’s brief post, I had the pleasure of sitting through the TERN presentation by Bruch Leith and the chance to talk to him in detail for about 15 minutes after. Bruce came across as a nice guy and indeed, he explained some of the personal issues that Al Sisto has had to deal with in the last 3 years and it puts things in perspective. Presentation Key points: - Al Sisto; career in Intel; encryption expert with expert knowledge of what’s needed in the IOT space. - Al Sisto California based but spends approx. 50% of his time in the UK. - Tern; the leading investment company in the IOT space. - Bruce Leith; primary role; finding new deals/investment companies (note; at last, people now in dedicated roles rather than trying to do everything). - Bruce; looking at 4 new investment companies , deals imminent , subject to term sheets and due diligence completion. - Working with Microsoft (possibly through In VMA). - Device Authority : hungry for cash due to growth; building product and distribution channels with Global technology companies - Intel deal; took 2 years to consumate; 7 months behind schedule mainly due to Intel internal process/sign offs. DA will handle authentication of Intel chip and through the Cloud - GEC; launched in USA last week (medical devices); launch re-scheduled to enable DA integration to be integral to the product. Enables 24/7 monitoring and treatment remote from hospital of patient condition but all data secured by DA. Huge market potential. - Strong play – authenticating sensors and at point of application; data remains secure throughout. - Products are now being rolled out; very well placed! Data analytics will also be a revenue growth area. - IOT take up by global tech has been slower than envisaged but now starting to gain traction and momentum. - 8 fold increase in security attacks in the last year; DA has a hack proof platform that automates at scale. - Strong patent suite that global’s cannot copy - DA life cycle has seen 12-24 month sales campaign followed by a 9-12 month product development/integration period. THIS IS WHY IT HAS TAKEN TIME TO REACH PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND PRODUCT ROLL OUT. Global tech companies are slow to progress due to internal approvals, budgets and priorities. - Now in a position to deploy Keyscaler globally with good evidence of several major customer contracts signed in the last 6 months. - THALES/GEMALTO; TO BUILD A BUSINESS AROUND DA/KEYSCLER; 2018-2021 RAPID GROWTH ENVISAGED - PTC; a $6 billion company with DA intrinsically linked! - Verticals/markets huge; sensors/data transmission now permeating every aspect of global world/life. - Emphasised high profile global partners. - THALES; LOOKING AT HUGE USA DEAL WITH ROBOTICS DELIVERING SURGICAL PROCEDURES – DA WILL BE INTEGRAL TO SECURITY. - AMAZING THINGS TO COME…… In VMA - Phenomenal order book; tripled revenue in 3 years to £1million and no signs of slowing - Key contracts with Howdens, MSE, MEM’s , GEC - Asset Minder can now be deployed within 3 months of enquiry; see huge potential and synergies with DA. Wrap up - Focus on improving investor communications via 3 monthly conference calls - PATENTS ARE EVRYTHING! THIS IS WHY COMPETITION IS STIFLED, DA ARE IN THE BOX SEAT AND GLOBALS GO TO DA FOR THE SOLUTION TO THEIR SECRUITY ISSUES - SaaS model ; recurring and growing revenues - BLENDING OF THE TERN COMPANIES TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED DISRUPTIVE SOLUTIONS THAT GLOBAL PLAYERS NEED! Conversation with Bruce Leith Bruce came across as a genuine and nice guy. It was clear the last 2-3 years has hurt the BOD as much as shareholders. For example, a number of Bruce’s family have shares in ISA’s bought at 14,12, 10, and 8 pence. It is clear the single issue that has stymied progress has been the time it takes to consummate a deal (typically 12-18 months) and then integrate Keyscaler into the eco system offer. This is due to global tech companies themselves struggling to shape their offer to the market and the way these companies deal with their supply chain in terms of budgets, approvals, gateways etc. Essentially, think of a timescale and double it. Intel took 18-24 months but things are moving rapidly; Keyscaler will be ‘on chip’ and in the cloud for the Intel solution. In summary, they are 12 months behind where they thought they’d be. The US fund raise is still open but didn’t take off due to the slow uptake of contracts + a poor understanding of what is being developed. Device Authority are talking with Microsoft and ARM (DA were approached); global’s will use DA rather than spend years developing in house; ALL ABOUT TIMING! Last week’s San Francisco conference went well with significant interest shown in DA. There is significant interest in DA and ‘players are circling’. They’ve already had offers that have been rejected (at above the current TERN market cap). The dilemma is the timing of sale of DA versus timing of value created by the global partnerships versus the cost of funding a growing company. Also, in order to attract institutional investors to TERN, they need to prove the business model by selling a company for a significant return. Whilst Bruce wouldn’t be directly drawn, my impression was a £75-100million offer (short term) will be considered. Bruce so stated a realistic aspiration that TERN will be valued at £100 million within 12 months. I left the event feeling extremely positive that our money is in safe hands and the share price will be multiples of what it is today in the coming months. My personal preference/issue is they find a way to keep DA for another 2 years unless a £250 million offer is tabled as there’s no reason why DA shouldn’t be valued at £1 billion + within 3 years. Ultimately, I cannot find a reason to sell my shares anywhere below £1. Hope this helps but DYOR,NAI.
29/1/2018
15:33
simon gordon: iii - 29/1/18: Autins (AUTG) 114.5p Autins (AUTG) is a prime example of a company that floats and soon after disappoints investors. It can be a long haul for investor confidence to recover. The company supplies noise and heat management insulation for cars, and it has been trading for more than five decades. That shows the underlying strength of the business, but it did not stop a major customer delaying orders and profit slumped within a year of floating. The chief executive resigned and he was replaced by former Hydro International boss Michael Jennings. There was a turnaround last year with underlying operating profit improving from £900,000 to £1.5 million. This is before the exceptional charges in each period. A 0.8p a share dividend indicates confidence in the future. Autins has operations in the UK, Germany and Sweden and has developed a new material called Neptune. There are growth prospects in automotive and other markets. The share price is still below the August 2016 placing price of 168p. The wife of non-executive director Terry Garthwaite bought 15,000 shares at 125p each earlier this month. To be fair, other directors were buying shares last year at higher share prices. This year's figures will be second-half weighted, so there may not be significant evidence of the extent of the recovery until later this year. ------ It has two new products licensed from a company in Korea: Neptune and Ozone. It looks to have growth drivers. One to keep an eye on. New CEO has plc experience.
29/9/2017
06:47
temmujin: RKBeekeeper Investment Case: Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) Wednesday, Sep 06 2017 by Ash Deans 0 comments 3 Every now and then I come across a share that I was not expecting to find and that I’ve never heard anything about before, this is a classic example of one of those shares. Yesterday Zanaga Iron Ore Company popped up on my radar due to a very strange action in the share price and some very large trades moving through a stock that typically sees very few trades per day. This much un-loved stock may actually prove to be one of AIMs biggest movers this year! Let’s start with the fundementals Shares in issue: 279m Free Float: Approx: 75m (27%) Current MCap: £17m 52 Week High: 212p 52 Week Low: 4.6p All-time High: 212p (No dilution since this high!) All-time Low: 1.35p Cash in Bank: Approx $4.5m Zanaga Project Details The bare fact is that the company sits with a mineral resource situated in the Republic of Congo that is one of the world’s largest with up to 6.9bn tonnes and of which 2.1bn is iron ore at a 66% fe. These figures have been produced in compliance with the key JORC code and the iron ore NPV (after financing and net of production and transportation) has been valued at anywhere up to $966m net to ZIOC based upon the current iron price of approx $55/tonne. (If the price of Iron Ore moves back closer to the $80 range then this puts the value up to $1.4bn!!) The project is a 50/50 collaboration with Glencore ($40bn Mcap), with Glencore hold 1 share more than Zanaga to give them control of the project. Zanaga management have been playing the long game this last two years, steadily progressing the project through, in the most important instance, the ratification of its Mining Convention and the lodging of the Environmental Permit that is now VERY OVERDUE and that will be another potential major milestone in the progress towards exploitation of this world class ore resource. Next Catalyst This project is waiting on the Environmental Permit to be obtained, this was expected at the end of the 2016 fiscal year which means it is now several months overdue and can land any day now! Once the permit has been agreed this could spark a chain of events that will send this share price on a crazy journey. With the permit in place I would expect ZIOC to look at selling their stake in the project and due to Glencore’s huge success over the past couple of years they are now in a cash rich position and according to their chairman they are looking to buy out projects that they already have a stake in. “We are looking for opportunities around,” he said, adding Glencore was particularly interested in assets where it already had stakes or partnerships. This would put ZIOC firmly on their radar, the only outstanding issue being the Environmental Permit which should land very soon. My View: What happens next Based on my research I strongly believe that once the Environmental Permit has been obtained ZIOC will look to sell their half of the project, either to their partner Glencore or to another party, potentially a Chinese interest as there have been rumours of interest from China in the past. This is backed up by the share transfer announced on the 3rd April 2017, which I believe was to get everything ready for the sale of the asset. I also see the directors holding a huge percentage of the shares in issue here which is a sign of confidence in my mind that they know what is coming. It would not surprise me if the deal is already in place and the permit being obtained is the catalyst to finalise it. In regards to the price for the sale of the asset, based on it being one of the world’s leading iron ore assets I would be surprised if it were to sell for less than $100m (fire sale price), with my estimate being somewhere between $200m-$300m. When you compare this to the current Mcap of £17m you can see the huge value here! The Mcap appears to only be this low as it is so far off people’s radars at the moment and the overdue nature of the Environmental Permit. Downsides? Are there any risks here? Of course, as with all shares there is a potential risk here that there will be further delay in the Environmental Permit, or that it might not be granted. However, given that all other permits and licenses have been obtained I see this as extremely unlikely. The risk to reward here is huge in my mind. Very low risk, massive reward. Targets The movement in the share price here is going to be driven by the Environmental Permit being obtained… On that news I would expect the share price to move to around 50p per share (600%+ Rise) I would then expect the share price to continue to rise up to the point of the asset sale, which would likely be over £1 per share (1300%+ Rise) Due to the Very Low free float in this share it moves incredibly quickly which will make it very difficult to by once the RNS lands so this is one you want to be in before the news lands. If you wish to check the figures here in this post then I suggest you take a look at the most recent investor presentation here to get an understanding of the size of this asset: hxxp://www.zanagairon.com/pdfs/ZIOC-Investor-Presentation_21-Sept-2016.pdf The share price at the time of writing this post was 6.125p Note: I have emailed the company to obtain answers to a couple of outstanding questions. I will update this post once I get a reply.
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