Severfield Investors - SFR

Severfield Investors - SFR

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Severfield Plc SFR London Ordinary Share GB00B27YGJ97 ORD 2.5P
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
0.00 0.0% 78.00 08:23:56
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waldron: Rate Slumps from Year’s Best as Investors Head for Safe Havens February 26, 2021 - Written by Tim Boyer STORY LINK GBP/CHF Forecast: Pound to Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Slumps from Year’s Best as Investors Head for Safe Havens The Pound’s strong streak may have come to an end for now as investors took profit from the British currency’s bullish February, and the British Pound to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) exchange rate has been tumbling from its best levels on new demand for the Swiss Franc as well. The Swiss Franc is a safe haven currency which is often appealing in times of global market uncertainty, so it is benefitting from this week’s bonds rout. After opening this week at the level of 1.2561, GBP/CHF spent most of the week trending with an upside bias. In the middle of the week, GBP/CHF was surging and touched on a high of 1.2877 - the best level for the pair in over a year. GBP/CHF attempted to hold near these highs, but towards the end of the week the pair has tumbled back. Investors are selling the Pound from highs and buying the safe haven Franc, and as a result GBP/CHF is trending just above the week’s opening levels again at the time of writing on Friday. Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rates Sold from Best Levels ahead of Next Week’s UK Budget After surging in an impressive and broad rally throughout most of February, the Pound is tumbling back from its best levels as the month draws to an end. There wasn’t much UK news behind the drop. Instead, analysts are seeing the move as a relatively limited correction as investors take profit from the British currency’s best levels in months or even years against some major. The Pound has also been hit by a new rout in global bonds. As the Pound has become more closely correlated to risk in recent years due to Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic, it has taken a knock from this risk-off movement in markets as well. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro: ‘Rising yields in the US, European and Japanese debt markets have sharply reduced risk assets’ attractiveness. Currencies and emerging markets were hit especially hard yesterday.’ The Pound outlook remains fairly appealing overall though. While Britain’s economic activity has been mixed in recent months, Britain is still expected to be one of the first major economies to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Swiss Franc (CHF) Exchange Rates Benefit from Market’s Rush into Safe Havens The Swiss Franc is a traditional safe haven currency. It is a currency that is most appealing in times of global economic uncertainty, due largely to Switzerland’s perceived economic resilience. As a result, it is one of the currencies to have been hit hardest by the surge in optimism over a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. However, this also means it is one of the currencies which has benefitted strongly from the rush into safer assets seen across global markets since yesterday. Yesterday saw a sudden selloff in government bonds, driving up bond yields and causing a broad rout in shares and riskier assets across the global market. This has led to a surge in demand for safe havens as well, including the Swiss Franc. On top of the global risk-off movement benefitting the Swiss Franc today though, stronger than expected growth data from Switzerland is keeping the currency appealing. Today saw the publication of many key Swiss ecostats. Non-Farm Payrolls, leafing inidcators and growth rate results all beat forecasts, showing that Switzerland’s economy was weathering the coronavirus pandemic better than expected. Reacting to Switzerland’s better than expected growth, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said: ‘On the whole, the second wave of the coronavirus until the end of 2020 had much less of an impact on the economy than the first wave did last Spring’ GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Forecast: More Key Swiss Data Due Next Week Next week will see the publication of a lot more notable data from Switzerland, which could drive Swiss Franc movement throughout the week. Monday will see the publication of Swiss retail sales results from January and manufacturing PMI data for February. Wednesday will follow with inflation rate results and foreign exchange reserves data is due on Friday. A combination of strong Swiss data and slightly higher market demand for safe havens would keep the Swiss Franc appealing throughout the week. On the other hand though, the current market rout may not last. If investors begin to lose interest in safe havens again, strong Swiss data may only limit Swiss Franc losses but not prevent them. As for the Pound, next week’s UK economic calendar will be a little on the quiet side. Britain’s final February PMIs from Markit could influence Sterling movement though. The Pound remains appealing on UK coronavirus recovery hopes overall, so the Pound to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) exchange rate still has potential to climb in the coming week or so.
florenceorbis: ECB Holds Steady on Interest Rates, Stimulus as Economic Outlook Darkens -- Update 21 January 2021 - 01:37PM Dow Jones News Print Share On Facebook By Tom Fairless FRANKFURT -- The European Central Bank kept its large monetary stimulus unchanged on Thursday, pledging to continue backstopping the region's governments via large-scale debt purchases as a stubborn wave of Covid-19 infections darkened the economic outlook. In a statement, the ECB said it would continue to buy up to 1.85 trillion euros, equivalent to $2.24 trillion, of eurozone bonds through March 2022, as planned, meaning that it will continue to absorb the bulk of the debt issued by eurozone countries this year. The ECB's bond purchases support the region's governments as they spend freely on job-furlough and other programs aimed at keeping businesses and jobs alive. The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%. Investors will now turn to ECB President Christine Lagarde's news conference, starting at 8:30 a.m. ET, for insights into the bank's economic outlook and hints at future policy moves. Europe's economic outlook has darkened since the ECB's last policy meeting in December, when Ms. Lagarde unveiled a large new stimulus package. With infection rates still high across the region, governments in Germany and other countries have signaled in recent days that they will tighten or extend social restrictions. Meanwhile, the rollout of vaccinations has been sluggish. Analysts worry that the region's $13 trillion economy will slide back into recession in the first three months of 2021, as businesses and households remain cautious. Eurozone inflation has been below zero for the past five months, through December, far from the ECB's target of just below 2%. The euro has also staged a rally against the dollar in recent months, hurting the competitiveness of Europe's large exporters in crucial overseas markets such as the U.S. Still, "there is very little the ECB can, and would want, to do" right now, said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING in Brussels. "The short-term path of the eurozone economy will be determined by the virus, vaccines, lockdowns, and fiscal stimulus, not additional monetary stimulus." That means the economic recovery will likely remain bumpy at least until vaccinations are widespread enough to prevent new infections, which isn't expected until the end of the year. Europe's economy could still be boosted by a fresh U.S. fiscal or investment package unveiled by the Biden administration, Mr. Brzeski said. Write to Tom Fairless at (END) Dow Jones Newswires January 21, 2021 08:22 ET (13:22 GMT)
florenceorbis: Swiss central bank continues to vacuum up foreign currencies Dollar and franc coins The relative values of the dollar and franc are going in separate directions. Martin Ruetschi The Swiss National Bank (SNB) spent almost CHF25 billion ($28 billion) in the foreign currency markets in the third quarter, raising its reserves to CHF938 billion so far this year. Two days ago, Switzerland was branded a currency manipulator by the United States. This content was published on December 18, 2020 - 11:52 December 18, 2020 - 11:52 The latest figures, released on Friday, show the rate of foreign currency intervention slowed between July and the end of September. In the first six months of the year the SNB had poured CHF90 billion into applying the brakes on the franc’s rising value. At the same time, the SNB’s current account surplus decreased from CHF13 billion in June to CHF9 billion in September. This is another key parameter on the US currency manipulation watchlist. The coronavirus pandemic has only increased investor interest in the franc, while the US dollar has generally fallen in value against other currencies this year. At its quarterly monetary policy meeting on Thursday, the SNB vowed to continue with its foreign currency intervention. High salaries aren’t what they seem in Switzerland If you are a male banker, a Swiss diplomat or a foreign CEO in Switzerland, chances are you are living quite comfortably. "Had we not intervened, the franc would have appreciated significantly more, and this would have placed an additional burden on our economy in an already exceptionally challenging environment," noted Andréa Maechler, a member of the SNB governing board. Reactions The US ambassador to Switzerland Ed McMullen played down the currency manipulation debate, telling Le Temps newspaper that it was a “purely mechanical decision” that bears little resemblance in tone to a manipulation claim issued against China last year. Martin Naville, CEO of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce, has also sought to downplay the dispute. In an open letter with the sub-heading “let’s not get overly excited”, Naville urges people to “relax” and “look at the facts” rather than rely on the “breathless reporting” of the media. “Looking at the development of the Swiss Franc–US Dollar exchange rate, it is clear that there is currently either no currency manipulation or Switzerland is doing a very poor job. In the last 20 years, the Swiss Franc appreciated 100% to the US Dollar! In 2001, one Swiss Franc cost US$ 0.57, today it costs US$ 1.14! Tell me about manipulation,” he writes.
rhomboid: I would suggest it’s possibly an institutional investor wanting to rotate out of the stock irrespective of the merits or otherwise of SFR ...possibly a change of portfolio manager? ..a 250k AT on the bell might be the end of the position ? M&G & Hambro have been reducing FWIW I’ve no position here any more as I hold Billington in preference ...
cc2014: BILN is loved by the private investor. Reguarly ramped on Twitter etc. SFR owned by institutions with hardly a PI apart from ex-employees. Perhaps one might draw some infrerence about the ability of the two different types of investor to assess value.
waldron: Swiss Franc Demand Is Set to Increase, UBS Predicts By Jan Dahinten 16 avril 2020 à 10:40 UTC+2 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Share Tweet Post Email In this article UBSG UBS GROUP AG 9.27 CHF +0.41+4.58% CHF Swiss Franc Spot 0.9675 CHF -0.0028-0.2886% EUR Euro Spot 1.0869 EUR +0.0029+0.2675% Investor demand for Switzerland’s currency, already trading at a five-year high, will increase as the country’s economy will outperform others during the recession, strategists at UBS Group AG predict. “Switzerland enters this recession with excellent credit quality, and its pandemic health situation is under control,” UBS strategists Thomas Flury and Gaetan Peroux wrote in a note to clients. “Hence its economy should do relatively well in comparison to other regions.”The economic impact of a further decline of the euro against the franc should be limited, as Swiss tourism and many export sectors are already suffering from a drop in activity. Read More: SNB Easing Would Catch Swiss Curve Off Guard Only at a level of 1.03 francs per euro would the economy face more serious consequences, UBS said. The currency pair currently trades at around 1.052 francs. The Swiss National Bank said last month it sold francs more aggressively in the foreign exchange market to push back against the appreciation. Given the likelihood of a further weakening of the euro, investors should hedge their exposure to the common currency, UBS suggested.
grupo guitarlumber: Surge in Euro Borrowing Could Store Up Trouble for Later Print Alert By Paul J. Davies The euro is cheaper than many think it ought to be. One explanation: A surge in euro-based borrowing abroad is weighing the currency down. This could make the euro prone to wild swings in the future. A variety of actors are borrowing euros and exchanging them for other currencies, taking advantage of the region's superlow, even negative interest rates. Some of this demand comes from hedge funds putting on so-called carry trades, in which they borrow in euros and swap them into higher-yielding currencies such as the Brazilian real or the Mexican peso. Data from the Commodities Futures and Trading Commission show leveraged funds had at the start of February, the most recent data available, nearly the biggest volume of net shorts or bets against the euro since the end of 2016. "This is a sign that leveraged investors are selling the euro to fund trades in more volatile, higher-yielding currencies," said Jordan Rochester, a currency strategist at Nomura. There has also been a surge in borrowing from companies taking advantage of those low rates. And European banks are increasingly using their euro deposit base to lend abroad. The euro has slipped since the start of February and is trading close to its weakest point against the dollar in over three years, with one euro buying $1.09. Yet macroeconomic factors suggest the euro should be getting stronger. For one, the difference in interest rates between Europe and the U.S. has shrunk, which should erode the attractiveness of the dollar over the euro as an investment. The eurozone has also seen growing capital inflows, which should give the euro a boost. It gets steady inflows from its current-account surplus -- roughly speaking, it exports more than it imports. There have also been strong flows into European stocks and bonds and increased foreign direct investment, factors that switched from heavy outflows to inflows since late 2017. These things combined have swung from outflows of about EUR400 billion ($436 billion) in 2017 to inflows of more than EUR450 billion in the past year, according to George Saravelos, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank. "Despite the huge swing in [capital flows], the euro has stayed weak. This is unprecedented," he said. In a recent note, he forecast that the euro could move toward $1.08 in the near term. One reason the euro has stayed weak is that these inflows have been balanced by other outflows from the surge in euro borrowing. The euro has weakened 3.5% against the dollar in the past year, suggesting these other outflows have been strong. These cross-border borrowing trends keep the euro weak and calm when investors are happy to take risks, but could spark sharp bouts of volatility and send the euro suddenly higher when investors seek safety, Mr. Saravelos said. So far, most analysts and investors don't see extreme levels of carry trades, like those done using the Japanese yen and emerging-market currencies before the financial crisis of 2008. Those trades unraveled violently, causing the yen to strengthen suddenly. Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, thinks investors are making smaller bets on emerging-market currencies because the trades have become riskier. "A lot of countries aren't running managed foreign exchange any more," he said. "That volatility cuts into your carry." European banks have recovered their appetite for lending outside the region, according to Mr. Rochester. Since 2016, the cumulative flow of bank loans from European banks to overseas borrowers has grown from the equivalent of 50% to 70% of annual gross domestic product, according to Nomura. Cumulative outbound currency and deposit flows have risen from about 40% to 55% of GDP in the same period. Loans could go to other non-European banks, or to companies for their trading or investment needs, for example. These and other outflows increase the supply of euros in international currency markets, which depresses the euro's relative value. International borrowers have flocked to European bond markets, too. U.S. companies issued a record amount of euro-denominated debt last year, including companies such as Coca-Cola Co. and International Business Machines Corp. And last year, emerging-market countries sold a record EUR52 billion of government-backed sovereign, supranational and agency debt, smashing the previous EUR41 billion record set in 2016, according to Dealogic, a data provider. This year is setting a record pace already. The longer rates stay ultralow, the more investors' hunt for yield could encourage them to juice returns with borrowed money. "If nothing happens, then the balance of [money] flows is to the continuation of carry trade dynamics," Mr. Saravelos said. Some analysts don't think the euro borrowing will necessarily end in tears. In a market correction, there could be a balance between carry trades unwinding and money flowing out of European stocks that would limit any sharp rise in the euro, according to Paul Meggyesi, a currency strategist at JPMorgan. Write to Paul J. Davies at (END) Dow Jones Newswires February 12, 2020 08:50 ET (13:50 GMT)
ariane: Https:// Surging Swiss franc may have become a gold proxy, Goldman Sachs says Published Mon, Jan 20 20205:58 AM EST Elliot Smith @ElliotSmithCNBC Key Points Gold recently soared to six and a half-year highs, and spot gold prices were hovering just below $1,560 per troy ounce on Monday. The Swiss franc (CHF) was trading at around $1.03. Gold rallied amid spiking geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, instigated by the U.S. killing of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani. The Swiss franc, which has been in a steep incline against the dollar of late, may be being used as a proxy for gold, according to Goldman Sachs. Gold has rallied in recent weeks following the spiking of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, instigated by the U.S. killing of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, and is widely regarded by investors as a “safe haven” amid turbulent periods. But where gold has gone, the Swiss franc has followed, Goldman Sachs Co-Head of Global Foreign Exchange Zach Pandl highlighted in a note Sunday. The franc was trading at around $1.03 by mid-morning on Monday. Gold recently soared to six and a half-year highs, and spot gold prices were hovering just below $1,560 per troy ounce on Monday. “While the drivers of recent performance are not entirely clear-cut, we believe the surge in geopolitical tensions may have motivated investor demand for CHF, much as it has driven demand for gold,” Pandl said. watch now VIDEO03:04 Dollar could really surge in 2020, strategist says The note highlighted historical consistencies in this hypothesis, as the franc was the best performing G-10 currency during the turbulent first half of the 20th century, amid the Great Depression and two world wars. This was largely attributable to the franc’s close relationship with gold dating back to the early 1900s. “The Swiss constitution required CHF to be backed by gold reserves until mid-1999, and the country aggressively defended the franc’s parity with gold until 1936, by which point most countries, such as the U.S. and U.K., had already substantially devalued their currencies,” Pandl said. Geopolitical risks have abated slightly in recent weeks, with the possibility of imminent military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran diminishing and a “phase one” trade deal being signed by Washington and Beijing. Should this trend continue, Pandl suggested, the franc is likely to weaken over 2020 against both the dollar and the euro, but he added that it “might be too soon to fade just yet.”
waldron: Swiss firms’ investments double abroad This content was published on December 13, 2019 12:31 PM Dec 13, 2019 - 12:31 euro and franc Most investments went to Europe (Keystone / A3250/_oliver Berg) Companies in Switzerland invested double the amount abroad in 2018 than the previous year, figures show. But foreign investors withdrew capital from Switzerland due to a US tax reform. In 2018, companies domiciled in Switzerland invested CHF 61 billion abroad ($62 billion) (compared to CHF30 billion in 2017). Around three-quarters of the direct investment were from firms in the services sector, the Swiss National Bank said on Friday.external link “Financial exposure abroad saw particularly large increases in the trade sector (CHF32 billion) and among finance and holding companies (CHF13 billion). Participations were a major focus of these investments,” the statement said. Manufacturing accounted for CHF13 billion abroad, with the most significant share here in chemicals and plastics. The bulk of the investments went to Europe, “notably to the two holding company locations of Ireland and Luxembourg as well as to the UK”. Swiss-based firms also undertook major investments in Central and South America (CHF18 billion) and Asia (CHF5 billion). However, net withdrawals of funds were made from subsidiaries in the US (CHF12 billion) and Australia (CHF8 billion). Foreign direct investment in Switzerland Investors abroad made a net withdrawal CHF52 billion (in 2017 the net investment was +CHF106 billion) - from Switzerland in 2018, the SNB reported. “This was the first such reduction in capital since 2005,” it said. “As in 2005, the reason was a tax reform in the United States: US parent companies made use of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to repatriate part of their equity reserves from subsidiaries in Switzerland. This was true in particular of finance and holding companies, which withdrew funds of CHF 32 billion,” the statement said. “The various categories in the manufacturing sector as well as the majority of service-sector categories also saw net withdrawals. Some of these withdrawals, too, were linked to the US tax reform.” Overall, stocks of foreign direct investment in Switzerland amounted to CHF1,296 billion. dollars FDI confidence Switzerland falls in foreign investment ranking Despite a slightly better score Switzerland has dropped four places as a destination for foreign direct investment over the next three years. This content was published on May 13, 2019 10:21 AM Keystone-SDA/SNB/ilj
waldron: economics Swiss Defy Currency Gravity as ECB Cut Stays Unanswered By Catherine Bosley 11 décembre 2019 à 06:00 UTC+1 Updated on 11 décembre 2019 à 12:31 UTC+1 LISTEN TO ARTICLE 3:00 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Share Tweet Post Email In this article EUR Euro Spot 1.1138 EUR +0.0008+0.0719% Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast. Switzerland’s central bank is once again challenging the forces of gravity in the foreign exchange market. ADVERTISING The Swiss National Bank held its sub-zero benchmark interest rate unchanged this year despite a reduction in the euro area, as it judged gains in the franc as tolerable rather than warranting a mirror response. That raises the prospect that the difference in rates between the two jurisdictions might have become less relevant to the value of their currencies. The franc didn’t move much after the ECB cut its deposit rate The test for such a view may be how long Switzerland can stick to the current level of minus 0.75%, the world’s lowest along with Denmark, without cutting further and inciting more ire from banks. Led by President Thomas Jordan, the SNB’s experiment with subzero monetary policy is already about to hit the half-decade mark. “Negative rates have muddied the waters,” said Gene Frieda, a strategist at Pimco. “It’s fair to say that a negative rate is perceived differently than a lower positive rate.” To prevent the franc from appreciating against the euro, the SNB’s deposit rate has been at minus 0.75% since early 2015, and officials have repeatedly stressed the need to maintain the differential with the euro area. But when the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate by 10 basis points in September, the Swiss didn’t follow suit. Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan Address Annual Shareholder Meeting Thomas Jordan Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg At the SNB, “they’ve tended to give the argument of the rate differentials rather more than less weight,” said Adriel Jost, an economist at consultancy Wellershoff & Partner. “If this rate differential were as paramount as they say, they would have had to take a different decision.” The franc’s recent relative calm partly reflects that the ECB’s much-anticipated rate cut was largely priced in ahead of the decision. The Swiss currency appreciated about 4% against the euro between May and September, when it hit a two-year high around 1.08 per euro. The franc was little changed at 1.092 per euro at 12:26 p.m. in Zurich on Wednesday. Jordan and his colleagues are expected to keep the main policy rate unchanged and reaffirm their intervention pledge at their next meeting in Bern on Thursday. Forecasts indicates the currency should weaken somewhat in 2020 and futures suggest the SNB won’t adjust rates at all next year. Below Zero The SNB's deposit rate has been at -0.75% since 2015 Source: central banks Luke Hickmore, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments, says that at some point, market fundamentals will reassert themselves. The differential between Switzerland and the euro area “can only get stretched so far,” he said. “It’s a bit like attaching an elastic band to a brick -- you can only stretch it only so far before it bounces back.” Still, subzero monetary policy has clouded things. Reducing an already-negative rate of interest could be judged by investors to be contractionary rather than stimulative because it hurts banks. Also according to David Bloom, global head of foreign exchange strategy at HSBC, looking at interest-rate spreads to gauge the path of G-10 currencies isn’t helpful any more, because low interest rates have upended how investors behave. “The market and the way it views life is changing -- it’s undergoing a fundamental change,” he said. — With assistance by Love Liman, Anooja Debnath, Charlotte Ryan, and Michael Hunter (Updates with franc in seventh, eighth paragraph.)
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