Serinus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[dplewis1] 28/5/2021 08:11

Huh? The Warsaw listing trades at 0.74 PLN

[badger60] 28/5/2021 06:05

Fwiw senx Poland trading at 14p.

[badger60] 28/5/2021 05:21

I agree that the downside is limited, but given the volumes that have changed hands, and the significant drop in share price over the past few weeks, I think that there's going to still be a fair amount of churning with the share price on an upward trajectory, but perhaps not as quickly as we would hope. Having said that, obviously more fresh blood in the game, especially chunky iis, would change that.....so fingers x'd.....;+)

[galaxy enforcer] 27/5/2021 17:26

Price here can quickly move as has been seen previously. Little downside risk know and certainly on the buying radar.

[daar] 27/5/2021 12:39

Move above 3p incoming

[on target] 27/5/2021 12:16

badger, appreciated but no need to apologise - you didn't pull the trigger so to speak.

[honestmarty] 27/5/2021 10:29

Not long to Sancrai spud.

[basem1] 27/5/2021 09:54

Looking good today wonder if the seller is cleared Should be a lot higher in a fortnights time

[badger60] 27/5/2021 09:47

Hi On TargetI'm sorry that I brought senx to your attention before the share price dived.....I don't think that anyone was aware of the amount that was being sold which seemed to never stop. However, if what Mr. Auld alludes to is written on the box, I am still very confident that SENX will be a winner, and hopefully a big one, but perhaps not as quickly as originally anticipated.Fwiw I hold at an av px of 3.45pGood luck

[on target] 25/5/2021 11:26

Standard AGM proposal - it was in last year's agenda as well.
They won't be wasting the little cash they have buying back shares. More likely to issue new shares imo.

[stalker_boy] 25/5/2021 11:24

Amazing that they require all this cash and are still initiating a buy back of shares

[on target] 25/5/2021 11:14

Fundamental problem is the company has to keep investing more cash to offset the (apparently high) natural decline in well production just for production to stand still (and in the last Q it actually still went backwards). Also the Romania field production is already at the capacity of the gas plant - someone has to upgrade that plant (at a cost of ???) in order for production to increase further. Also very sensitive to any falls in oil and gas prices.

[lazarus2010] 25/5/2021 10:56

CP...lots more sellers than buyers? (doh)

Seriously, no freakin idea!!

Thinking of averaging down but no clue as to where the bottom might be. Director buying hasn't exactly helped, my opinion is that those buys were too little too late and the market has dismissed them. We could do with a few D-buys in the millions.

Could also do with a BN forecast update wrt future capex and free cashflow. It seems that the wells themselves are profitable, but they're funding workovers and new wells which results in a net loss. I think solving this is the key to getting the share price to move back up.

[dandadandan] 25/5/2021 10:20

Sell in May and go away. That looks like the current market sentiment here.

All you need to do is wait for common sense to prevail.

Look at that crazy low Mcap.

Now get ready for those share buy backs, at this lowly price.

DDDD.

[currypasty] 25/5/2021 09:47

laz, have you any theory why the shareprice is currently so weak?

[lazarus2010] 25/5/2021 09:34

a reminder...

Novykluk
13/05/2021 00:23
Posts: 126
Price: 3.20
I was alerted to SENX by Charlie1984. Having since done my own Due Diligence/research in some detail, I'm convinced it's a real gem with considerable upside!!
I have concluded the share price is currently ery depressed because of;
1) It's earlier massive $33.7m debt (taken on when oil was $110/brl),
2) Uncertainty due to it's inability to make full interest repayments without default.
3) Depressed oil prices in 2019 & early 2020, and
4) Too much exploration drilling (heavy expenditure) by previous management, without regard for revenue.
Those factors resulted in the shares being grossly oversold!

But Jeffery Auld (ex-Goldman Sachs - brought in to turn the Co. around), has changed all of that!! Just look at this man's CV!!

The opportunity:
* Debt now renegotiated and the balance sheet recapitalised. The Co. is now debt free and has cash in the Bank!!
* The Bank which extended the loan, has now taken a 9% stake in the company. That's amazing and very positive!!
* The Co. has doubled output and now has very strong positive cash-flow.
* Production has grown since Q2 2020 and is continuing to grow.
* The Co. is now implementing 4 high impact low cost simple "Just Go Do" output increase projects. These target an output increase of 5,670 barells of oil equivalent/day [booe/d] (that's an additional 200% of output!!) over the next 18 months to 2 yrs.
* Their lifting costs are just $8.96/booe/d.
* The Co. has very low G&A costs!!

IMO THIS SHARE PRICE IS ONLY GOING ONE WAY!!

A great recommendation Charlie1984, thank you!!

FWIW, here are my price target calculations;
Note: I've applied a very heavy & conservative Discounted Cash Flow rate of 40% pa. So that reduces the target price by 60% to cater for the 18 months time frame for implementing the output increase projects.

So in today's values the target is:

Say 7,500 booe/d of output x 300 producing days/yr x $40/brl profit x a P/E of 10 x 0.70 US$ conversion to £'s x 0.40 (DCF effect of 100% - 60% = 40%)

So a Market Cap in today's value of £252 million is implied.

There are 1,140,660,629 shares in issue

This suggests a target price of 22.1p NOW.

IMO SENEX's price will re-rate once investors;
1) See further increased output being demonstrated and
2) Understand the upside potential i.e when the "message gets out"!! This stock is currently "under the radar"

Others on this Board have flagged-up that Q1 2021 results are expected today (Thursday 13th). And also that Jeffery Auld is making a live Presentation with Q&A's at 5.30pm Monday 17th May. Others have also said, and I agree, it seems very unlikely he'd do that live session if the results were naff!

For anyone interested to register to attend the Presentation, the link's here

[divmad] 24/5/2021 11:47

There certainly is still a size seller at this level. Easy to pick up blocks of 500k+.

[honestmarty] 24/5/2021 09:28

The runes are certainly positive here.

I've now bought far too many.

Just sit back and wait.

[cal57] 24/5/2021 09:16

The directors can see the potential first hand and how undervalued the company is .Roll on end of June and next spud.

[tnt99] 24/5/2021 08:22

Now the wife's are buying something going on here!!!!!

[cal57] 21/5/2021 08:06

Chairman bought again.producing over 2,000 boe/d and a market cap of only £25m.Sancrai-1 expected to spud before end of June.Happy to hold.

[tnt99] 20/5/2021 09:19

This is crazy directors buying shares and the price goes down however I find that this often happens before a large move up

[cal57] 20/5/2021 07:35

Another director buying.Not huge amounts but at least the directors are buying.Value to be had at these prices.

[stevie050] 19/5/2021 13:34

Very disappointing performance. Just have to hold & see for a bit.

[cal57] 19/5/2021 12:28

Looks like plenty of buying but the share price is still down.Maybe a seller in the background.hard to judge.