Serco Share Discussion Threads

[davethehorse] 10/12/2018 10:02

Not a good sector to hold shares in at the moment

[dangersimpson2] 03/12/2018 09:53

I think there is a significant risk of another rights issue here given that Kier were just forced into one and were financially stronger than Serco on pretty much every metric even pre-rights:


KIE Pre-rights SRPCurrent Ratio 0.99 0.92NTAV £m -261 -353OCF TTM £m 130 -41Net Debt £m 186 250Net Gearing % 33 90Int Cover 6.2 3.0



When markets turn it is balance sheet strength and free cash flow that matter, and Serco currently have neither. Better to be a Kier than a Carillion and raise cash early IMO.

[freddie ferret] 29/10/2018 17:21

SP dropped early on but recovered.

[freddie ferret] 22/10/2018 12:36

Roll on December.

[freddie ferret] 29/9/2018 16:38

Update on 2018 financial performance

28 September 2018

Serco Group plc

LEI: 549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21

Serco Group plc ('Serco' or 'the Group'), the international service company, today provides an unscheduled update on expectations for the 2018 financial year. Strong operating performance, together with transformation savings and other cost efficiencies, have resulted in trading in the first few months of the second half being better than we anticipated; in addition, we now believe that a number of non-recurring trading items such as end-of-contract settlements and other commercial negotiations will contribute to a stronger outcome for 2018 than we expected, and one which will be meaningfully ahead of current market consensus.

Previous guidance was for Revenue of GBP2.7-2.8bn and Underlying Trading Profit of around GBP80m. Our latest view, which is at estimated reported currency rates, now indicates Revenue of approximately GBP2.8bn and Underlying Trading Profit of GBP90-95m; the latter would represent growth of between 30 and 40% on the result for 2017. Accounting net debt at the end of the year, which we previously thought would be at the mid-to-upper end of our GBP200-250m guidance range, is now expected to be towards the lower end of that range. This is in part because of stronger trading and in part because we anticipate that we will receive the early repayment of a vendor loan note issued on our disposal of Intelenet in 2015. As a consequence, we now expect leverage for covenant purposes of less than 1.5x EBITDA at the year end.

With regard to 2019, our detailed budget process for the 2019 financial year has only just begun, and we are mindful of the fact that 2019 will not benefit from the non-recurring trading items we expect to see in 2018. We will update markets on our thinking for 2019 at the time of our pre-close statement on 13 December.

Ends

For further

[cerrito] 28/9/2018 18:35

Given the forecyadt improvement in this year's performance is due to one off factors and they are reserving all judgement for next year, today's share price performance seems appropriate.

[freddie ferret] 28/9/2018 17:40

Very interesting this.

SP falls and they come out with this unscheduled update the question is what has been going on?

Has the price been deliberately manipulated down, in expectation of this update?

Anyway nice update.

This is not a tiddly AIM company thus this update will result in a higher share price

[salpara111] 28/9/2018 08:30

Yes, solid update. I've had them on my watchlist for a while and this might finally see a sustainable rise back to at least the 120 area.
I still feel that the sector is a relatively unattractive one but equally I get the feeling that SRP may be getting closer to reinstating their divi which would give the share price a meaningful uplift

[bigbigdave] 28/9/2018 07:19

'meaningfully ahead' Finally turning around?

[salpara111] 26/9/2018 13:22

Well Mitie just announced falling profits and order book in a "highly competitive environment" which really says something given that one of the main players, Carillion, have been out of the market for about 6 months.
Serco is probably the most investible company in the sector today but that does not mean they are a good investment. Margins will always been low and the work is capital intensive.

[freddie ferret] 25/9/2018 17:37

Agreed.
Corbyn effect??

[davethehorse] 24/9/2018 15:25

Something doesn't feel right....

[freddie ferret] 22/9/2018 16:22

Tree shake, unless there is news to come.

[mallorca 9] 28/8/2018 20:12

Is this breaking out ?

[rabbrooks] 03/8/2018 17:42

One of the Brokers covering SRP advised in July to sell has been ignored since then, however it is unlikely we will see the market agreeing with Mr Soames IMO

[cerrito] 02/8/2018 17:44

I do not hold these but am keeping an eye open to buy.
I thought Soames' comments in the Guidance, outlook and concluding thoughts section in today's statement a very good read.
At around £1 they seem to be accurately priced at the moment.

[freddie ferret] 22/6/2018 13:43

Rising lows since Feb.
Rising highs since Feb.
It will need to break above 110p at some point.

[davethehorse] 13/6/2018 18:02

oh dear...back below the critical 100p level

[freddie ferret] 22/5/2018 17:39

Seems unwilling to advance northward from £1.

[freddie ferret] 17/4/2018 16:42

Actually you were, more or less, wrong.

[davethehorse] 01/3/2018 11:54

Downward trending looking to continue to be established with the general market being very weak.

[freddie ferret] 26/2/2018 17:22

I have just taken a look at IRV and do not like the look of it, SRP looks healthier IMHO DYOR.