Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[gregpeck7] 05/6/2019 16:08

Agree, gold price looking perky though, is it going to push to 1400? Because of the lack of liquidity here and the fundamental crazy low valuation. If this does start re rating we can see it's going to be quick. Hold.

[carolj] 05/6/2019 15:17

I agree but was getting nervous when it went below 30p. All the figures suggested 60 - 80p short term especially as possible lower USA interest rates will give gold a boost.

[carolj] 05/6/2019 15:12

thanks guys

[gregpeck7] 05/6/2019 14:32

Tightly held share which is very undervalued. Nice to see it finally moving. Not selling any of mine till it's over 100p.

[ppvn] 05/6/2019 14:32

Anker and Garraway were selling and there appears to have been a dash to sell their shares (which Anker won by selling their shares around 28 and then 26p). Garraway seemed to give up on their selling in the mid-40s because (I assume) they bought city financials stake below that level.

It's a very illiquid stock so is prone to these bumps (and for the moment less frequent) jumps.

I personally believe them to be worth far more than this current sp; last year the financiers for the first Coringa tranche paid 72p equivalent and the performance of both palito and sao chico has greatly improved since then - as has their exploration with Cindarella being found.

I don't know if Garraway are done selling - I suspect they aren't - so if this is just a spike for the moment so be it. At some point they will hopefully get a fuller valuation though.

[loganair] 05/6/2019 14:29

Positive sentiment returning to Serabi.

[carolj] 05/6/2019 14:27

thanks King but there must be more reason

[king_baller] 05/6/2019 14:24

People on twitter seem to have just noticed the Q1 results, their significance re an increasing gold price, and the expansion plans. 50 trades making it jump 25% show just how tightly held and illiquid this is.

[carolj] 05/6/2019 14:19

wow !!!! why is this going up so quickly now?

[ppvn] 05/6/2019 13:22

Wow that's some write up!

The big story with this particular gold rally is the DXY performance. As you've said, gold is at all time highs in many currencies (including BRL) but not USD. Hopefully the dollar pulls back a bit (Elizabeth Warren had some thoughts about devaluing USD two days ago), and Trump obviously does - so Republican or Democrat in 2020 gold could be the winner.

Relatively speaking though this share price is still woeful. Nice to see this little bump before the PEA for Coringa comes out - that should assist too.

[loganair] 05/6/2019 12:27

Money Week - The global collapse in trust has driven a secret bull market in gold:


hxxps://moneyweek.com/508448/secret-bull-market-in-gold-and-the-global-collapse-in-trust/?utm_campaign=money-morning-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter



How much more distrusting have we become? Check out these charts.

The main authors of In Gold We Trust – Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek – are (as you might expect) hardcore goldbugs. Theirs is a world view with which many MoneyWeek readers will have a lot of sympathy. I know do.

There is too much debt in the world, especially government debt. Easy money, low rates, monetary manipulation, the balance sheets of central banks and all the rest of it have stored up a host of problems, and when the dam breaks it will be nasty. Gold is thus an essential diversifier in everybody’s portfolio.

One word, however, appeared more frequently than I have ever known it to. It’s a word with which bitcoin bugs will be only to familiar – “trust”. Bitcoin, of course, was designed to obviate the need for it – “in proof we trust”, runs the saying.

Incrementum observes that in the West, trust is disappearing. People no longer trust their governments. They do not trust their politicians. They do not trust their scientists, or their economists. Experts are biased. The media is biased. Even systems and processes are no longer trusted – whether it’s education, healthcare, even democracy itself.

The blue squares in the chart below chart declining levels of political trust in various countries around the world. Interestingly, Finland has seen the biggest falls.

It’s easy to explain why such trust should have evaporated, from lies about the Iraq war, to the authorities’ reaction to the financial crisis of 2008. Society, as a result, has become polarised in a way that we simply weren’t used in the nineties and early noughties.

It’s interesting that the UK actually saw a marginal rise in trust between 2007 and 2016, albeit from much lower levels. This probably reflects the difference in perception between the Brown and Cameron administrations. When the 2018-2019 data gets released, I think you’ll see UK trust in governments at an all-time low.

As far as Incrementum (and any like-minded gold or bitcoin bug) is concerned, this loss of trust in our institutions and in each other is leading up to the humdinger – a loss of trust in money itself. Indeed, that’s why bitcoin was designed in the first place.

At a global level, this is manifesting itself in mutual distrust among central banks. Some have repatriated gold held overseas, while others have been increasing their gold holdings in what is known as the de-dollarisation of the economy. Hungary has increased its gold holdings tenfold, for example. That’s extreme – but most nations are at it.

It’s no coincidence that the change in trend began in 2008. That’s when they bailed out the banks. What struck me, in particular, was, cumulatively, how much gold Russia has bought.

While the growth in China’s holdings, as I have written about before, is extraordinary.

So loss of trust was one big theme of this year’s report. And these central bank reserve charts go some way to demonstrating the scale aof that loss of trust.

Gold’s secret bull market:

I just want to cover a couple more charts which caught my eye.

We tend to think of gold in US dollar terms, because that is the official price in which gold is measured. As a result, our perception is that gold peaked in 2011 at $1,920 per ounce and has been in a bear market ever since. Today it sits around $1,330.

But over the same period the US dollar has largely been in a bull market. It has been strengthening against most currencies.

On the other hand, I’ve often described gold as a hedge against your own government. And in the UK, for example, it has served that purpose well. Gold was £700/oz in early 2016, before the Brexit vote. Today it’s 50% higher, at roughly £1,050.

In this next chart we see the world price of gold – ie gold plotted against all major national currencies. You wouldn’t know it, but by this measure, gold has been in a bull market since 2013.

Gold has, in other words, been doing what it is supposed to do.

There are many great charts in the report, and I recommend you take a look. But I wanted to finish off with one final chart that caught my eye.

Commodity prices are incredibly low, believe it or not:

A common theme of mine in recent years has been the extraordinary valuation ascribed to the digital economy, while the real economy has lagged. Whether it’s the valuations ascribed to FANG stocks or bitcoin, or the earnings of tech entrepreneurs, the digital economy has eclipsed the physical economy. The reason is scalability, as I outlined last week.

Real stuff is a burden. The physical economy is hard. Nowhere is this dichotomy more apparent than in the commodities markets. We think of the great commodities bull market of the 2000s, and then the subsequent bear market we are in today.

But oil is still above $50 a barrel, copper costs nearly $6,000 a tonne, and wheat is around $200 a bushel. Prices don’t feel that low.

However, if we look at commodity prices relative to stock prices, they are actually more depressed than they were at the turn of the century, before that great secular bull market. In fact they’re almost as low as they were in the late 1960s.

Here we see the ratio of the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index against the Dow Jones.

I don’t think it starts tomorrow. Probably not even this decade. But the stage is being set for a turnaround in commodities – and as such the real economy. And if all the inflation that has built up over the last decade manifests itself in commodity prices, then you really will need to own some gold.

For now, amid the recent stockmarket correction, gold has had a nice little rally over this past couple of weeks to around $1,330. It’s looking strong. But the big barrier remains that $1,360 area that has been resistance for some five years now. Will 2019 be the year it gets through? Let’s hope so.

[tightfist] 04/6/2019 08:00

I think it was just after-hours - but I don't know which day however..... Maybe are just about to find out!

[suncanaria] 03/6/2019 20:26

MMs seem to be accumulating they didn't widen the spread on that sell.

[tightfist] 03/6/2019 18:10

Hi Suncanaria, Pakenham,It's very frustrating - and been that way for several years..... it looks to me as though an ii (presumably Anker or Garraway) is not finished with selling yet whilst PI's (and R&M?) gradually soak-up the overhang.The Coringa capex is a Red Herring? I am still thoughtful about the 2017 Anfield BFS ~$28m capex shown on slide 9 of the March BDAC presentation. Maybe a Red Herring, maybe not, but I would like to know how much the acquired plant cost, it's current condition and it's suitability for evolving SRB operational methods.I suppose the PEA due this month will reveal all? At least Fratelli, Greenstone and Sprott are all in the loop regarding future funding, if the need arises. I probably favour slower organic development, especially now PoG is on the rise.....tightfist

[ppvn] 03/6/2019 11:33

Gold on a tear and have read that it could take a pop at $1400 toward the tail end of this month (not by Sprott or the gold permabulls either!!).

Hopefully Serabi can translate this into some record numbers because the share price is not reflecting reality imv, unless I've missed something.

Carolj; thanks for the colour. I was topping up quite a bit a couple of months ago in the 30s and then the 20s and I had a similar thing where my buys were appearing as sells. Hope that this time we actually go up. Surely a deep pocketed fund must see value here soon. Getting a bit frustrating!

[carolj] 31/5/2019 16:48

Most of todays trades were buys. I topped up 1000 shares at 13:55 @ 29.37p.

[loganair] 31/5/2019 12:25

Gold is finally seeing some bullish momentum as trade war ructions escalate. President Donald Trump’s tariff salvo trained at Mexico boosted the metal, which has been weighed down by the strong dollar.

Bullion prices advanced to a two-week high to head for a narrow monthly gain after Trump said that he would impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods, effective June 10, until that country stops immigrants from entering the US illegally.

Gold has been struggling to make headway this year even as global tensions picked up, losing out as investors preferred the haven of US Treasuries, with yields on 10-year notes at 20-month lows, and the greenback. Global equities are heading for the worst month since December and there are growing signals that an economic slowdown is imminent, with the outlook for China’s manufacturing sector deteriorating more than expected in May, according to data on Friday. The move against Mexico adds another layer of risk.

“The Trump-Mexico news has, and will continue to, really rattle markets today” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda. Still, “I would need to see a move through $1 310 over the next week before reviewing my thoughts on gold’s underwhelming price action this month.”

The US standoff with China looks set to worsen. Fresh tariffs by China on US goods are set to kick in as soon as June 1, and Beijing has readied a plan to restrict exports of rare earths to the US if needed. Prospects of a trade deal with Washington are now less likely after the news on Mexico, analysts said.

Another supportive factor for gold is the potential for an US rate cut. The Federal Reserve is prepared to ease if it sees mounting risks to the expansion, vice chairman Richard Clarida said Thursday while stressing the economy is in a “very good place” with unemployment low and inflation muted.

[ppvn] 31/5/2019 10:53

Well someone has transacted but it was a sell! There have been a few of them back up above 30p. I wonder if it is garraway as its fairly constant.

Not all bad though; gold seems to be getting over its recent stumble and with luck will have another run at the $1350 mark. Can't say the pressure is off Serabi, but the fact the scrubber seems to have got their costs a bit under control means they aren't up against a wall at least.

Patience patience, as usual!

[ppvn] 31/5/2019 07:20

Nice to see Serabi are receiving questionnaires about their tailings facilities; at least investors haven't completely forgotten about them!

They seem to be ahead of the curve in this respect having modified the mining application for Coringa to be dry stacked back in Jan.

Can't personally see it moving the needle but you never know, someone might transact the shares today!

[sherry35] 27/5/2019 18:47

I was wondering if people have reviewed the Q1 2019 gold demand bar chart "Central banks drive global growth with Q1 net purchases hitting six-year high" on this WEB site. If you scroll down to the bar graph on the left hand side, you'll note a dramatic increase in gold purchases in 2018. Now map that that to a 2018 daily chart of gold spot price. Gold was taken down last year during Q2 and Q3.

hxxps://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2019

[suncanaria] 27/5/2019 09:30

I am not so sure about that 1980s Gold went far higher when monetary policy got very tight. I can see it spiking given the political turmoil.

[loganair] 25/5/2019 19:20

Gold (measured in dollar terms) had a very mixed week. On the one hand investors are worried, which makes gold more appealing. On the other, they are concerned that the Fed hasn’t yet “got it” about easing monetary policy, and tighter monetary policy is bad news for gold.

[pakenham] 22/5/2019 17:12

I think coringa payment is a total red herring - there is cash in the bank and growing profits and a pe of less than 4 if u extrapolate from 1st quarter earnings report - profitable companies use debt if necessary not dilution - market prices this as a small explortaion company in africa when in reality it is a highly profitable company in a stable jusrisdiction in a commodity that may explode short term... the rough comparison against peers is that this should be between 70 and 80p with well over a £1 on fundamentals going forward... the company is currently in discussions to improve the share register significantly - I think I'm right - but does the market??