Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 15/5/2019 12:03

There seems to me plenty of Retail Buying of Serabi shares today.

[laptop15] 15/5/2019 11:33

https://twitter.com/laptop1515/status/1128609104870739969?s=19

[ppvn] 15/5/2019 11:21

Hoping that rather than breakout that the drop from 40/50 was a function of Anker/Garraway disposing of shares in an illiquid market.

The scrubber should produce these lower costs on a continuing basis, and the ore sorter should help increase grading through the plant to get them to the 55k+ oz next year, and that should be at a lower aisc due to the fact it's more gold for the same volume. 2021 will see Coringa producing c.30k oz in addition so in my view there is a very credible path to a cheaper production of far more gold.

I'm very dissatisfied by the return (negative) this far, but it does seem a function of the market at this point rather than Serabi's progress.

And then of course there is the ever intriguing Cindarella.

[laptop15] 15/5/2019 10:11

Breakout might be coming with all the buying presure

[laptop15] 15/5/2019 09:41

Agreed Logan, that's a 10% reduction in costs on the AISC year on year for Q1. As you say its straight to the bottom line profit and a big factor in showing a net profit of $1.5 million. Serabi are in a strong position now and I guess the scrubber is helping cut the costs, ore sorter will help also when that starts in H2. This is possibly the cheapest mcap wise producing gold miner on the market imo.

[loganair] 15/5/2019 09:17

The most important part of the trading statement to me is....

"Most pleasing, however, is to see a reduction in the unit costs of production, with a reported AISC of US$1,021 compared with US$1,166 for the same quarter in 2018 and an average AISC for the 2018 calendar year of US$1,093.

Serabi AISC is slowly reducing to the $1,000 per oz as promised they would do so this time last year. The fall from $1,166 to $1,021 means an extra $1.16mln straight to the bottom line as profit.

[ppvn] 15/5/2019 08:51

Decent set of results and despite the coringa balance, with a market cap of just over £15m it does reinforce my personal view this share is silly cheap.

The Sprott loan now in May should stand at $4.8mm remaining to pay. They had an $8mm facility which they have upped and downed in years prior; with three mines (granted Coringa won't be producing at time of balance being paid) I'd hope they have a few different avenues of finance to tap.

The price of gold received from sale also fell slightly, despite this they managed some respectable numbers. With the exploration side due an update in the form of soil geochemistry at the Cindarella anytime I'd rather hope that the bottom has now been plumbed. Certainly gives a bit of confidence in the scrubber; Clive said that it's full impact would be felt in Q2 so with luck it'll continue to have a positive effect on the numbers. And then the ore sorter should go online in H2 at some point so that should then take up the slack on the improvement front.

Despite Anker having sold and the really catastrophic effect that had on the SP, things do look operationally better than ever here. And we are at all time lows. Oh well!

[tightfist] 15/5/2019 08:14

Hi, I hadn't foreseen a cash issue with meeting the acquisition final payment, I am more thoughtful about the other Capex requirements that may be required to take Coringa into full production, pending the PEA publication.IMO this morning's Q1 results are really encouraging with the combined effect of more production, higher grade, weak BRL and substantially fixed costs indicating what is possible.Maybe Coringa can now be fully financed slightly more slowly but organically through internal cash flow? That would make the current share price look IMO like a real bargain. I wonder what our overhang seller will do.....Cheers, tightfist

[catsick] 15/5/2019 08:11

Results look decent , Im in smalls for a flutter ....

[sleveen] 15/5/2019 07:36

Fair/good results.

My only concern is the $11m acquisition payment in the current 12 months.

Will there be a small placing ($5m say)to help pay the $11m?

[laptop15] 15/5/2019 07:28

https://twitter.com/laptop1515/status/1128547264161636354?s=19

[laptop15] 15/5/2019 07:15

Great set of results guys, nice reduction in costs and big increase from 2018 Q1. Aisc is has reduced considerably and a 1.5 million net profit is pretty good.

[laptop15] 15/5/2019 07:13

1st Quarter Results #SRB https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/92a95797-606c-4ed5-b1e6-f2c7b70eb4a8 #voxmarkets

[ppvn] 13/5/2019 16:12

Hoping the q1 results show a very nice EPS to get us moving back up. Guessing Weds for those.

[laptop15] 13/5/2019 13:31

Looks like we might see another rally in gold soon as the trade deal worries the markets. Good for serabi gold. Back over 1300 should see the share price rally imo

[bomber13] 11/5/2019 10:41

The Coringa PEA should show big improvements on the original assumptions , which 18 months ago were 32/- oz pa of production for 6 years , AISC of US$783 per oz , and a post-tax IRR of 31% . And better project economics will allow Serabi greater flexibility in funding the mine , if need be .

Next week , we will hopefully be told that Palito/Sao Chico had an excellent quarter one , that the tailings scrubber is working perfectly , and that the ore sorter is bang on schedule for installation H2 . Perhaps we may also be told that we have some significant sampling results from Cinderella . Perhaps the directors might even buy stock in the market ?

The Brazilian Real is hovering near its all-time low against the US dollar , central banks are buying gold in historic quantities , and the China/USA trade spat has the ability to ease Federal Reserve monetary policy rather sooner than expected .

The sellers of Serabi will be taken care of one way or the other .

[tightfist] 11/5/2019 08:39

PS: We are now down to 33% of the share price Greenstone came in at only 12 months ago. This is pretty shocking - IMO execution has been generally good - two tragic deaths and some mining plant unreliability/poor Q production but exploration has been better than expected by me.Looks to me as though yesterday's deals were nearly all buys working our way steadily through the overhang created by a determined, cash-hungry ii seller. Any trading or dummy news anyone?Cheers again, tightfist

[tightfist] 11/5/2019 08:22

Hi Sherry,Add to your list the publication of the Coringa PEA and the implied upfront cash requirements (funding?) for a CREDIBLE trajectory to 100kpa, and when. IMHO that is what is holding us back.I also have high hopes (ROI!) for the ore sorter commissioning and initial results towards the end of 2019.Cheers, tightfist

[sherry35] 10/5/2019 17:25

What is the plan and status on the 2019 drill program? Until the ore sorter gets commissioned, the drill assay results and are updated reserves/resources are key enablers for the share price

[ppvn] 09/5/2019 22:25

Great post bomber, thanks. Was beginning to think my investment rationale here was off the mark but glad I'm not the only one bullish here.

[bomber13] 09/5/2019 19:06

It seems pretty obvious to me that the Ross Beaty's of this world must be running the slide rule over Serabi at these levels , particularly as there are seemingly not one , but two forced sellers .

The market cap is only US$19.5m , the gross cash is US$12m , albeit promised to Anfield/Equinox Gold , Ross Beaty vehicles , and Serabi paid US$22m to Beaty JUST for Coringa .

Coringa was then going to be a 32/- oz pa producer under its BFS , and 18 months later it is looking more like a potential 40/- to 50/- oz pa producer once permitted .
Meanwhile , Palito and Sao Chico are now shaping up to be 50/- to 60/- oz producers with the excitement of some significant brand new exploration leads still to come .

I don't know whether anyone here has read the recent Sprott report on the upcoming M&A frenzy in gold-mining juniors , but here is the link , it is worth a read -



Bring on the Q1 financials next week .

[ppvn] 09/5/2019 15:46

River and Mercantile picked up a few last week on market. I really don't know what to make of the share price currently.

Its screaming "bargain" to me, but when it does that I agree it's a bit ominous.

[sherry35] 09/5/2019 15:37

The retailers are nibbling at it but the institutions don't see a bargain. Unless ... drum roll ... private placement shares with warrants are being printed soon. The institutions have never never never bought shares out of the public market in the last 5 years. They want cheap shares and continued control. They own 80% of the O/S. Toss in ELD and SBI executives, they control 85%.

Private placement is coming soon now that the share price has been a deterministic walked down.

[ppvn] 09/5/2019 14:59

They need to do both imv. And do something about their valuation.

BRL should help, the q1 sales volume should help, the scrubber should help. Things both within and out of their control have all been in serabi's favour so they need to capitalise on this more than ever, particularly given Ankers recent disposal of shares.

[loganair] 09/5/2019 14:42

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the price of gold continues to trade range bound $1,220 to $1,360 for the next 12 months therefore any increase in profit will either come from an increase in production and/or a reduction in the AISC.