Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[sherry35] 02/4/2019 21:46

PPVN - I'm wondering if SBI will incur additional mill construction costs in switching from a tailings pond to a incorporated "filtration and dry stacking of mine tailings" at Coringa. Will the tailings pond construction expense offset the cost of the filtration and dry stacking equipment?

Also, I'm wondering about the impact on the commissioning date for the Coringa mill should SBI need to purchase additional equipment for the filtration and dry stacking.

[ppvn] 02/4/2019 10:59

Had a look at last years q1 results - seems production numbers should come out around the end of April and cash numbers in mid-May.

Spread you could drive a bus through at the moment!

[sherry35] 30/3/2019 14:41

PPVN - I agree with your statements. The 1Q19 financials should be a good indicator of SBI's progress. The ore sorter, as mentioned in the PR, should have a significant impact on cost and increase mill capacity.

A lot of gold miners last year had mysterious production problems in the second half of 2018 year. Some of them took a beating on their share price

I found this particular PR very informative and uplifting. Proving a 2 million plus resource by year end will increase SBI's book value. Toss in three producing mines in 2020, this should reflect well in the share price

[sherry35] 30/3/2019 14:25

The below two publicly stated objectives are of interest in proving up a "global gold resource of more than two million ounces". To "accelerate" one "drilling program at Palito" and "commence a similar drill" campaign at Sao Chico, would this imply concurrently operating two or more drills at both concessions?

+++ Sourced from PR +++

·Continue, and accelerate, the current drilling program at Palito to test the strike extension of ore-bodies beyond the current resource limits.
·Commence a similar drill and surface geophysics campaign at Sao Chico to test the five kilometre trend that hosts the Sao Chico deposit as well as multiple historic artisanal mines along its length.

[ppvn] 29/3/2019 10:11

Agreed Loganair - they are making steps to address the issue and I'm of the view that the scrubber should have got them to the $1k / oz. Unfortunately that didn't go online until Jan so it'll only be reflected in the q1 numbers this year. Next quarter results will be critical.

[loganair] 29/3/2019 10:04

Serabi directors said they would get the AISC down to $1,000 per ounce, then when every thing is in place to reduce further to $950, instead the AISC has increased slightly.

[ppvn] 29/3/2019 09:55

Agree, bomber.

They need first to get production to 100k oz and get costs down to $950 max. The scrubber that went online in Jan won't have impacted costs until q1 2019 and the extra expense of tailings dam work etc I assume kept costs disappointingly high.

There have been a lot more buys than sells today which is reassuring, but they can't keep relying on their shareholders for support if they don't start delivering. As is mentioned, q1 numbers should be a step change - production of >10k oz, sales of >12k oz, and the impact of the scrubber on costs will finally be reflected. I added modestly this morning on the strength of q1 as well as the fact they are already analysing the cindarella zone.

[loganair] 29/3/2019 09:37

The first thing that worries me is how the AISC of production has increased slightly instead of going down as was promised last year it would.

[bomber13] 29/3/2019 09:29

Disappointing that we have had two consecutive quarters of delayed gold sales , and , although purely a timing factor , this somewhat dampens the consistent success Serabi has had with mine development rates , production , and , of course , exploration . Q1 2019 should clearly be an excellent quarter , however , providing all production is sold .

Comments from the CEO and Chairman are also reassuringly good . First time I have heard them speak of a greater than 2m oz resource , and that the ore sorter's potential effect on production being " significant " . Also first time I have heard them talk of M & A opportunities away from their designated region of Brazil .

I would far rather they proved themselves as a 100/- oz producer first , to be honest .

[ironstorm] 29/3/2019 08:19

Looking forward Q1 numbers should be much improved. The current cash position healthy. Hopefully sufficient for the next Coringa payment. Lining up well.

I had hoped this would come together this year at some point - one of my 3 main goldies. No reason to change my mind.

RNS might cause some price weakness I may add further.

[tightfist] 29/3/2019 08:11

Agreed! More reading required, but the contrast between the down-beat opening figures and the positive and informative sentiments of the Chairman (and CEO) sections is stark. Lots of things to like, especially a little more clarity about the timing of the ore sorter......

[ppvn] 29/3/2019 07:32

Headline numbers frustratingly bad and I see that it's due to unsold inventory to be recognized in 2019. Long term may actually be helpful (I assume that's why Jan cash balances were much higher than Dec) but even so it's not helpful for the annuals.

Suppose that on balance its broadly in line with 2017 numbers (assuming c.$4m inventory sold in Jan that brought cash balance up) and the increased gold price as well as scrubber should improve the 2019 figs. Always jam tomorrow!

[gregpeck7] 28/3/2019 19:34

Horrible day for gold price...

[bomber13] 28/3/2019 17:24

Hi Sherry ,

City Financial went into financial administration very recently , and , subsequent to that , Garraways , a young ambitious fund managing group , has taken on City's Absolute Equity and Multi-Asset funds together with the 3 fund managers who ran them . So , hopefully , there will be no change to the investment process , and , therefore , the Serabi holding will still be in safe hands , but under a different umbrella .

Their 5% stake showed up directly after last year's placing at 72p in March .

Here is the Garraway link FYI -



Personally , I find the easiest way to look at all RNS's on the UK market is on this website FYI -



For shareholdings , apart from looking at RNS's and annual reports obviously , I look at this website FYI . Just input the stock code to get the company up and then click on Directors and Shareholders -

[martinthebrave] 28/3/2019 16:53

Try their website Sherry35 -

[sherry35] 28/3/2019 15:16

TR-1 Notification posted on TMX. What was the prior holdings before crossing the 5%? Were the shares acquired out of the public market? Which market - LSE vs. TSX? Where is the inside trades filed for trades executed on the LSE trades?



Where does a investor go to examine the insider holdings of insiders and institutions in the UK?

[ppvn] 27/3/2019 14:54

Lol, can hear the UK ones chirping too! Confident it shouldn't be too much longer before there is a bit more action. I guess 30% or so ytd isn't too bad - better than my 2018 return here!

[sherry35] 27/3/2019 00:39

PPVN - You mean to say you can't hear those CDN crickets a chirping?

[ppvn] 26/3/2019 11:41

Financials out this week I guess? All gone rather tumbleweed again...

[ppvn] 22/3/2019 16:11

Gold at it's all time high in BRL terms. 5,100 / oz.

Every little helps!

[ppvn] 21/3/2019 10:49

Hi Bomber,

Thanks for that, and glad to see I'm not the only one fairly staggered by the potential numbers on the underground mines alone. FY 2018 numbers should be a bit better than the Q3 financials purely because of the delayed ore shipments that brought the cash figures down then. It's a shame we won't see the impact of the scrubber because that didn't go live until Jan.

I figure it's the Coringa final payment that's dragging on the share price at the moment. Once that has some clarity around it, the share price should do a lot better. I'm not sure there will be meaningful change before then, but in the meantime I'll sit and probably talk myself into more of them. It could certainly get interesting if they can get the drills to either the ABC anomalies or Cindarella. Will have to see how the surface geochemistry goes first I guess.

[bomber13] 21/3/2019 10:02

Hi PPVN , re your proforma AISC assumption of US$950 per oz going forward , I am also hoping that is a very conservative number .

Pre scrubber ( January 2019 )and pre ore sorter ( estimated July 2019 ) , the average AISC for Palito and Sao Chico has been running at around US$1080 for the last 18 months . However , one would strongly hope that this figure could fall by at least 10% on these milling efficiencies , particularly given production guidance is up over 10% this year to nearly 44000 oz . Bearing in mind that this output is before any of the near 20000 oz of organic growth that we are promised over the next 2 years from the Palito complex , before any significant new resource upgrades , and before any excitement still to come from the Cinderella prospect , there would appear to be an awful lot of economies of scale still to shoot for .

At Coringa , Mike Hodgson indicated an average AISC of US$786 for around 40000 oz pa of production in the PDAC presentation , much the same level that was in the original BFS . However , we are told Coringa's plant capacity is 750 tonnes per day , which , at grades of just over 8g/t , means there should be substantial spare milling capacity at that level of gold production . Hence , there should be a lot of room to tweak that Coringa AISC assumption lower if the resource can be scaled up as is hoped for .

At 45p , our market cap is US$35m , our EV is US$28m ( cash of US$12.8m less debt of US$6m ) , and our NAV is US$65m . If we proforma 100000 oz of production in 2021 at AISC of , say , US$900 , and use a gold price of US$1500 , then we will nearly be making the NAV on one year's pre-tax profit .

[ppvn] 21/3/2019 02:46

I think to be honest we are on the same page, albeit wording slightly differently. The fed is in a tricky spot because they need to keep the equity markets up as without these prices, pension funds would be even further underwater, the whole premise of their QE runs would be called into question, etc. I'm not so sure it has to do with their balance sheet runoff; they are primarily holding treasuries and MBS' (again, propping housing to avoid negative equity for main street etc). Where its come disjointed imo was the unforeseen lack of investment in wages, productivity, new jobs etc because a knock on of cheap money was the emergence of ever larger (merged) companies that in a "normal" interest rate environment would have gone to the wall long ago.

The problem they face, again only in my view, is the fallacy of Keynesian economics when in deficit. The state should support demand using surplus, rather than debt. Now the cost of debt for governments is rather staggering; Japan, the southern European states, etc etc. Quite the pickle, and I guess why MMT is being more broadly discussed. Mind boggling! But gold positive.

[sherry35] 21/3/2019 02:22

A weaker USD would spur US industrial growth in the short term but most American households are running on fumes.

Thing to note is some of the USA economic indicators are adjusted once or twice after the close of the period as more data comes in on the period. Since the inclusion of health services into the GDP, the services industry will have to come under fire to call a technical recession in the USA. Right now housing, auto and transportation's are coming under fire with lower demand.

As for the FAANGS, I think migration to 5G maybe slow given pricing and current robust stable 4G environment.

FED needs the equity markets to stay strong while they clear balance sheet. I agree that company buybacks supports the FEDs initiative and allows for the continue insider selling since last two years. I suspect the FED will resume raising rates after Sept. in order to entice domestic and foreign investors to buy fixed income assets.