Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[sherry35] 14/3/2019 16:10

PPVN - Thank you for taking the time to cruise the numbers and share your thoughts. Do you think commissioning of the ore sorter will be completed by August when the current investor presentation states "Ore sorting test work has yielded excellent results. Unit being shipped and planned to be commissioned H2 2019"? H2 is a large window. I think you're being optimistic though the SBI folks have surprised us in the past.

I'm lining up with your thoughts on a combination of financial instruments to service the $12mm Coringa payment. SBI still needs to maintain a healthy cash position post the Coringa payment. As eluded to by you, I think the payment will involve cash and small share financing. I would like to see the share price north of the split to further reduce the dilution. Also, I predict half of the payment will be in cash.

We just need the POG to head north to $1400 USoz. Hopefully the SBI share price will follow this time.

[ppvn] 14/3/2019 11:49

Ok so had a little guess at the Sprott loan and I figure that by September (mentioned in a call when Coringa funding will be concluded, although final payment not due until Dec), there should be $3.3mm remaining of the $8mm facility. This is because as at Jan 31 there was $6mm remaining, and repayment is made in equal monthly installments until June 2020, so I divided $6.66mm by the 18 monthly payments of $370k.

Cash as at Jan 2019 was $12.8m; I figure that the scrubber has reduced AISC to $1k (reduction in aisc of just under 10%, since that is how much additional production its providing at little cost), I've scheduled an increase in production from Aug 2019 to 3800oz per month (from 3600 that is currently a bit conservative for what they are doing) as the ore sorter should be running by then. That gives $10.6mm net profit by Sept, less the $4.8mm repayment to sprott from Jan-Sept, around $6mm additional cash to the 12.8mm.

In summary, i figure Serabi could actually have a relatively good stab at paying off the $12mm coringa payment from cash on hand from the look of it. Either fully in cash, or by accessing an additional loan facility.

Any thoughts or commments on this?

[sherry35] 13/3/2019 20:23

3 consecutive days of trading on the TSX. I'm speechless.

Mar 13 12:51:32 PM 0.83 4000 1 90
Mar 12 09:53:43 AM 0.82 500 1 1
Mar 12 09:53:33 AM 0.81 500 1 1
Mar 11 03:03:40 PM 0.8 500 1 62
Mar 11 12:12:29 PM 0.8 482 NBDLT 5 79
Mar 11 12:12:28 PM 0.8 500 1 79

I noticed House 001 seller pulled its 500 share ASK order around the same time House 90 posted 7500 share ASK order. The number of players is still pretty small for the time being.

[gregpeck7] 13/3/2019 19:40

Very interesting read.Gold up another 10 bucks on top of 10 the day before....

[ppvn] 13/3/2019 12:21

Hi everyone,

Just seen a new presentation went up for the PDAC conference on Monday, found here :

Been a little busy at the moment so only had a brief skim.

[gregpeck7] 13/3/2019 10:04

Stock looks incredibly tight here.. Only 1 MM offering at 53p, then its 55p.... Finally the good news is sinking in....

[sherry35] 12/3/2019 22:06

All - I was wondering if anyone has information on the Sucuba permit "Located approximately 10 kilometers to the west of Palito" [sourced from SBI Web site]. Is the 10 kms from the Palito mine or the tenement area as defined on slide 5 on the Feb 2019 investor presentation.

[gregpeck7] 12/3/2019 22:03

Also nice to see the BB getting busier... Very nice to see all these views and opinions rolling in.

[gregpeck7] 12/3/2019 20:35

Gold up over 8 dollars an ounce...

[sherry35] 12/3/2019 17:57

Hi tighfist - There is a number of places to source the construction equipment, such road and infrastructure construction companies, for building the ramp and portal. There are roads in the area that need to be maintained with flooding etc. As for specialized mining equipment, some of the nearby miners may have some spare equipment. Especially the miners looking to buy out SBI.

[tightfist] 12/3/2019 16:23

Hi Sherry,We were actually in New Zealand - the legacy of gold mining mines and townships is prolific and amazing!Yes, you have found the historical PR's regarding mini-scoops, etc that I was thinking of. I have the impression that it's pretty remote down there and that 3rd Party contract kit is just not available? eg a while ago a piece of mining equipment failed (I cannot find the relevant PR) and ore/gold production suffered for a few months until it was repaired.But MH seems pretty resourceful, I hope the newish Brazilian COO was cast in the same mould! There will be some synergy savings through being able to share between the sites equipment when things don't go according to plan.Cheers, tightfist

[sherry35] 12/3/2019 15:45

tightfist - Welcome back. I hope your travels were enjoyable.

Your "SRB have the opportunity to transfer obsolescent mine equipment" statement refreshed my memory on SRB's upgrading of underground mining equipment. In the July 23 2018 PR, it states:

++++++++

“Development rates have improved as the year has progressed and much of this has been down to the introduction of our ‘new generation mini-scoops’, the first of which arrived on site during this second quarter. These, along with a narrow-width face drilling jumbo, have allowed us to advance much faster with less dilution and waste handling. We are still analysing the overall effectiveness and cost benefits of this equipment with a view to purchasing additional units, but so far, the results have been excellent."

+++++++++

I believe SRB will recycle some of their existing underground mining equipment" in the short term to reduce costs. They need to go through the pove in phase of the trial mining license. Also, SRB can lease heavy construction equipment to build the ramp and portal entrance.

[gregpeck7] 12/3/2019 12:38

Looks like 1 mm selling at 48p then it's next stop 52. Pressure is building.

[tightfist] 12/3/2019 09:39

BTW last year's AGM was on 14th June pm, in Central London

[tightfist] 12/3/2019 09:37

Hi PPVN,Yes, in this phase I would think that SRB have the opportunity to transfer obsolescent mine equipment down to Coringa to start portal excavation and initial ramp development.I think they run a pretty tight ship with incremental equipment orders closely based on cash flow. Last year's funding may have loosened things a little but I get the sense that MH is pretty careful and shrewd. I hope to be around this year to finally meet MH at the AGM; IIRC it's usually held in London in mid June.Good luck with the cash flow analysis; there seem to be a lot of things going on right now - my judgement is that a substantial fund-raising will be required around Q3 but I would be delighted to be corrected!Cheers, tightfistPS: Delighted to finally see some share price movement!

[gregpeck7] 12/3/2019 08:14

Decided to grab another 1000 today.. having to ring the market makers for a price!! Someone is clearly accumulating these which is no surprise. Generating 1 million net per month and only 25mmkt cap having just significantly upgraded resources. This should be flying.

[gregpeck7] 11/3/2019 23:38

Those late declared trades explain why I had to pay 45p for my 10,000 Trying to double my holding over the next 4 weeks... I have a feeling this is starting a significant move.

[ppvn] 11/3/2019 21:13

Hi Tightfist (et al.), welcome back,

Re. Coringa, yes, anfield bought seemingly all the plant required for processing 750tpd, ball mills, cyanidation circuits etc. I don't know the cost of these but assume that a few mini jumbos (assume they'd look to use these there too?) are a lesser expense. There was a complete inventory given at the time of acquisition but think it was all surface working equipment. Serabi are already opening up the mine portal so would that indicate they have already bought some equipment?

In any case, they do seem to be in a reasonable financial position. I need to go through the numbers again but they've been busy paying off the Sprott loan so I'll try and calculate how much of the balance remains (they did confirm the maturity date), but we mustn't forget that the placement of 2018 had a fairly prescriptive use for the funds and it was basically exploration budget I seem to remember.

Very nice to see a bit of action here today, few larger shapes going through so that's reassuring. Perhaps Mike has put his hand in his pocket? We live in hope! Haha.

I counted around 40k shares sold at 50p so think won't be too long before another tick up, if buying continues.

[gregpeck7] 11/3/2019 14:23

Taken 10,000 more. Love the prospects and the low valuation here, as others have said, it's a gem and the positive newsflow has to start waking this up soon. Had to pay 1p over the offer for those shares so someone is hunting for these....

[tightfist] 10/3/2019 10:26

Hi PPVN,

I have been away for a couple of months. Now home - a couple of points that may help.

We are promised a PEA for Coringa by the end of Q2, at which point the entire costs of getting Coringa into production must be recognised and quantified. I am not aware of estimates for the cost of getting the Process Plant commissioned - am I right in thinking thinking that the (new, s/h?) 750tpd plant was already put on-site by Anfield but not commissioned? Then there is additional mining equipment to consider, etc?

BTW I had it on good authority that SRB looked at a Brazilian pit proposition a while ago but decided to walk away. I agree with you that SRB are unlikely to be able to afford a near-production pit.

Cheers, tightfist

[sherry35] 09/3/2019 01:56

Perhaps ... but I've witnessed the power of bot/ago traders in other mining stocks going into Christmas, and their recovery into the new year. They're just giving it a little test drive at the moment ...

[gotabsirius] 08/3/2019 22:07

Daily movements are irrelevant, larger scope is required to see true value potential. For a gold company with current fundamentals in the current market conditions... This is a gift imho

[sherry35] 08/3/2019 21:55

SBI traded 750 shares today on the TSX.

Mar 08 03:51:56 PM 0.8 250 NBDLT 36 124
Mar 08 03:51:49 PM 0.8 500 1 36

I've noticed House 001 putting up single 500 share BID and ASK orders about 20 minutes after the open. The BID is 500 shares at $0.73 and ASK is 500 shares at $0.74. The orders were pulled about 20 minutes prior to close. This boxing of the BID/ASK has gone on for about a week.

Also, House 36 puts up orders prior to the open on both the BID and ASK. The spread is looser than House 001's BID/ASK orders.

To conclude, the timing of House 001 BID/ASK orders allows for opening and end of day trades outside their posted window. This is evident in House 001 buying at $0.80 (House 36 order), 9 minutes into the close, as opposed to the House 001 seller order of 500 shares at $0.74.

[ppvn] 07/3/2019 23:44

Evening Sherry,

I'm not downplaying the importance of their underground mines; far from it. I invested here several years ago on the strength of Palito and Sao Chico (which in hindsight was a little premature, given the share price performance!). It's hard to see for the moment the value add of coringa; this should clear in q3 once the final payment is made.

With regard to neighbouring licenses, have a look at who owns them. Anglo have over 2mm hectares of claim, Rio similar. Eldorado (another deposit frequently referred to by our BOD) paid $122mm for Tocantinzinho - a very undeveloped site back in 2010 which is a low grade sulphide deposit - 12x more than Brazauro was worth less than 2 years prior to the buyout.

I own the share because of the work being done at their three underground mines, which are profitable and seemingly are to become more profitable up to 2020. I just had overlooked the possibility that they are hunting for the big one - a free option if you like. Serabi couldn't imo afford to buy a pit.

[sherry35] 07/3/2019 22:41

PPVN - "If" the SBI execs are looking at a open pit mine type deposit, I suspect they'll adhere to their MO in acquiring an existing/"near to" operational "open pit" mine close to SBI's exiting permits. Given the nature of the M&A going on in the precious metal environment, acquiring a operational open pit mine would advance SBI's book value on the eve of global recession.

As eluded to by you in the above post, they are following the gold train back to the source based on all their geophysics, aerial surveys and drilling. Given my post about the AEM being conducted outside the tenement area, I suspect they have located the source of the network of gold veins running east/west on either the Sao Chico property or the Palito property running NW/SE. The source could be entirely on the existing SBI permits or shared with a neighboring permitted area.

I would not down play the importance of the existing underground mines. Some companies have gone to underground mining because the aging pits have become to expensive to haul the tonnage and the higher grades are more concentrated.

All we need is for the POG to move north into the high teens.