Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ppvn] 22/2/2019 12:17

I rather hope they can deliver on all the things you have noted above before any further M&A. It is feeling like this is the year for Serabi but they need to translate their efforts into a more valuable company before looking at further opportunities.

Getting to 100k oz will go a long way to adding more credibility to this company and they do seem to have everything in place to get there.

[bomber13] 22/2/2019 08:30

Good find Sherry , and , if you look at the last slide of the presentation in the Appendix , I think that answers your question PPVN . Drilling on the strike extension at Palito has already started , which is very exciting as so far we only have data on 1km of the 4km anomaly .

As to new news , I agree with PPVN , not much in the presentation . What I did spot , however , is under the " cash of US$12.8m " comment , they talk about looking at " regional M&A opportunities " . Given the final tranche of US$12m due to be paid for Coringa in December this year , that comment shows a pretty confident management , does it not ?

At least we are going to have some good short term newsflow from here - PDAC conference early March , Coringa resource update plus final drillholes early March , Q4 and 2018 results end March , PEA on Coringa Q2 , Palito drill results ( Q2 ? ) , ore sorter arrival ( Q2 ? ) , Peel Hunt " buy " note ( ? ) .

[ppvn] 21/2/2019 22:37

Hi Sherry, thanks for highlighting the presentation material. I couldn't spot too much new in there other than the previous Coringa PEA was based on 5 veins as opposed to 9 which Serabi are basing it on so there could be some uplift there, in both the resource and new PEA with luck. I assume the presentation will be given at the BMO conference from 24th to 27th.

I haven't spoken with serabi but if anyone does hear anything it would of course be interesting. I think the drills are due to move back to Palito after they are done at Coringa, but can't remember where I read that.

[sherry35] 21/2/2019 15:37

Hello - There is a new investors presentation on the Web site.

I was wondering if any one has talked to IR about the 2019 drill program and the over all impact of the most recent horrible accident at the Palito mine.

[ppvn] 21/2/2019 11:58

Not sure that production from Palito is fully suspended. The RNS said something along the lines of them being suspended in the vicinity of the accident and then followed up on the call with Mike saying it was a geologist that was killed - so not sure it would affect production if it was an exploratory face.

A sad situation but not sure production is impacted. It looked like they might be giving monthly production numbers this year so we may find out in early March.

[loganair] 19/2/2019 10:21

PPVN - Agreed important Serabi keep to their promise to reduce the AISC down to the $1,000 per ounce they promised. By doing so will add a further $4mln straight down to the bottom line as profit.

Last years annual report Serabi said they intend to get the AISC down to $950 per ounce.

[ppvn] 19/2/2019 10:18

Glad I'm not the only one!

Also, considering the scrubber is contributing what looks to be c.10% of production, I'm personally of the view that the bump in AISC in the last couple of quarters will come down. Adding stockpiled material post mill should be a very cheap way to achieve this extra production so I'm hopeful this will be reflected in the numbers going forward (I think just over $1k AISC could be achievable).

I believe it was operational mid Jan so will be interesting to see what happens.

[ironstorm] 19/2/2019 09:38

I was thinking the same. Or at least a smallish loan. But no dilution needed.

[ppvn] 19/2/2019 09:16

If gold keeps up the gains and Serabi are able to keep up the decent production numbers, I wonder if they could end up paying off the balance of Coringa out of cash flow. They have $12.9mm, and will obviously need to retain some for their mine operations, but with them clearing c. $1m profit per month at just under $1100 AISC it could just work...

[ppvn] 15/2/2019 10:42

Gold looking positive today. Can it close the week above $1320?

[loganair] 14/2/2019 12:16

There is an unusually huge spread at the moment 35p-41p which suggests to me that the mms are very tight on Serabi stock.

[ppvn] 14/2/2019 12:04

Can't say I've ever really had a problem buying. Usually I'm in 10k blocks, only purchase that was ever worked was one for 20k shares that was delayed reported.

Sometimes I have paid full ask but usually they manage to get inside the ask.

[loganair] 14/2/2019 11:20

Over this week I've been trying to pick up a good sized number of Serabi shares which my broker so far has been unable to fulfil shows to me how few Serabi shares there are for sale on the market.

[ppvn] 14/2/2019 11:07

It really does feel like 2019 could be Serabi's year. At the moment I think people are (perhaps rightfully) waiting for something; management to buy more / balance of Coringa to be settled / material uplift in production and reduction of AISC etc.

I really think this share could fly this year and, having been here since 2016 (I just double checked!), hopefully the time is finally right!

[ironstorm] 14/2/2019 10:32

What a great summary.

This feels like it might have some momentum - operationally at least.

[bomber13] 14/2/2019 09:02

In my opinion there are 3 highlights from yesterday's update and interview with Mike Hodgson -

Production -
after the disappointment with Q3 2018 production of only 8101oz , and the subsequent downgrade to 2018 guidance to 37000oz , Serabi really pulled out the stops . Q4 2018 output was a record 10256oz , and January has continued in the same vein with 3671oz , a quarterly rate of 11000oz and an annualised rate of over 44000oz , already above the top end of the new 2019 guidance of 40/- to 44/- oz . But , surely the really good news is that this has all been achieved BEFORE the new ore sorter has arrived ( H2 2019 ) , and after only half a month of operation from the new “ scrubber “ machine , which can clean Serabi’s substantial flotation tailings of impurities before they enter the cyanidisation plant ? All of the above would certainly seem to support the aspiration that Serabi’s two mines are capable of producing at least 50000oz pa BEFORE any organic growth , which , given the hugely exciting exploration results announced recently at Palito and Sao Chico , would appear to be on its way anyway .

Cash -
we have yet to see Serabi’s Q4 and 2018 results , which are due in late March , but we are told today that cash is “ considerably more “ than expected at US$12.8m by end January following good gold sales , and with the promise of an excellent Q1 to come . In Q3 2018 , the timing of gold sales negatively affected results because two shipments of gold with a sales value of US$1.6m were delayed into Q4 . This factor plus the much improved Q4 production , lower unit costs , higher gold price and weakness in the Brazilian currency should mean that the Q4 results , when we see them , are going to be excellent .

Coringa -
Serabi’s new mine development , bought in December 2017 for US$22m , of which the final tranche of US$12m is due in December 2019 , is still going through the permitting process , but seems to be on track for start-up in Q2 2020 , fingers crossed . Serabi is just completing the final two holes of a 5000 metre plus drilling programme , and the CEO is clearly very upbeat about the forthcoming 43-101 resource update for Coringa due early March , possibly in time for the big PDAC meeting in Toronto 3rd - 6th March where Serabi is represented . Results released so far have established significant depth and strike extensions to the original resource of 376000 oz . Given the 2017 BFS study completely omitted several zones , this resource growth should play very favourably with the original BFS conclusions of 32000 oz pa of gold production at cash costs of US588 , AISC of US$786 , and an IRR of 31% at a gold price of US$1250 .

All in all , Serabi’s publicly stated target of 100000 oz of annualised gold production by 2020 STILL looks perfectly possible despite what the company’s current enterprise value of only US$20m is telling us . All being well with funding , permitting , execution risk etc , which admittedly is a big ask , US$20m is a level that is not only less than what they are paying for Coringa , but it is one they should comfortably exceed in annual profits post 2020 !!

[sherry35] 13/2/2019 23:14

I wondering what forum members' take on the PR phrase "the processing of some of the 40,000 tonnes of flotation tails (grading 3 g/t gold) which will supplement the normal ‘run-of-mine’ production." My take is the processing of the tailings over the next 11 months is not factored into the "normal" 40K to 44K oz. production target of 2019. Could this be a bonus that pushes the production beyond the target?

[ironstorm] 13/2/2019 09:26

Shaping up nicely here. With the price where it is I may buy more. Will probably sell a perennial failing company and transfer here.

[ppvn] 13/2/2019 09:14

Despite yesterday's awful news, today's Jan update is probably one of the best I've seen serabi come out with.

[hraj] 12/2/2019 16:11

very sad unfortunate incident at palito. I do hope that serabi deal with this correctly and renumerate the employees family.

[loganair] 12/2/2019 13:44

MMs must really be short of Serabi stock as I've had a buy order in for most of the day which so far been unable to fulfil.

[loganair] 12/2/2019 10:09

Can see so much poor Sentiment when it comes to the share price of Serabi as any bad news and down the share price goes.

[robizm] 12/2/2019 08:32

Very sad. Underground mining is sadly a risky occupation.

[ppvn] 12/2/2019 08:26

Sad news from Palito. Easy to forget that mining is difficult and dangerous.