Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[hraj] 12/2/2019 16:11

very sad unfortunate incident at palito. I do hope that serabi deal with this correctly and renumerate the employees family.

[loganair] 12/2/2019 13:44

MMs must really be short of Serabi stock as I've had a buy order in for most of the day which so far been unable to fulfil.

[loganair] 12/2/2019 10:09

Can see so much poor Sentiment when it comes to the share price of Serabi as any bad news and down the share price goes.

[robizm] 12/2/2019 08:32

Very sad. Underground mining is sadly a risky occupation.

[ppvn] 12/2/2019 08:26

Sad news from Palito. Easy to forget that mining is difficult and dangerous.

[loganair] 11/2/2019 10:34

Annual Gold demand gained 4 per cent in 2018, on highest central bank buying in 50 years. Gold demand had reached 4,345 tons, up from 4,160 tons in 2017 while 2018 world gold production was around 3,300 tons. A multi-decade high in central bank buying (651.5 tons) drove growth.

The World Gold Council has upped its Gold consumption forecast for the Indian market for calendar year 2019 to 750-850 tons.

[tightfist] 09/2/2019 21:31

Hi loganair,I have been reading-up the recent posts. A couple of points - we need to hear more about progress and commissioning of the ORE SORTER! From the informed comments I heard in 2017 I came away anticipating great things with Pallito RoM ore. As I said before it looks like under-promise time or issues that we are not being told about?I have been here years awaiting the upside; I am still a believer in the long-term bottom line it's just the respective shares-in-issue (and sometimes the illiquidity) that concerns me.HGM surely has bears a Russia discount; on the other has hand gold is not found in many totally stable jurisdictions?!Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 08/2/2019 09:44

Hi Loganair,

Thanks for replying, that pretty much matches what I have slated. I worked on the basis of $1,050 costs and was coming out with a price of around £1.20.

Fingers firmly crossed!

[loganair] 08/2/2019 09:40

If Serabi are able to get to 70k ounces in a year with all in costs reduced to $1,000 per ounce then I agree with the Peel Hunt target price of 140p.

On the other hand if Serabi continue to under proform productionwise, then I can see their share price continue to fall.

[loganair] 07/2/2019 20:20

The Serabi share price is basically at an all time low as 40p is 2p pre-share Consolidation share price.

[gregpeck7] 07/2/2019 19:34

The more I read the more I like, will be adding more of these every month moving forward... One to build a decent holding of I think...

[ppvn] 07/2/2019 19:09

Precisely my rationale for investing here. Serabi will go through the roof if they can deliver on just some of their promises.

[loganair] 07/2/2019 17:42

PPVN - HGM are one of the lowest cost gold miners in the world, 50% less to get the gold out of the ground than it cost Serabi.

Serabi have been promising for a year now that they'll get the all in cost of gold mined down to $1,000 an ounce, then further reducing their costs to $950.

If Serabi are able to bring their all in cost down to $950 an ounce will bring in an extra $6mln plus ($11mln if Serabi become a 70k miner), almost all of which will go straight down to the botton line as profit.

[ppvn] 07/2/2019 13:09

HGM are a company I also very much like. Plenty of scope there for upside and their resource upgrade on MNV was welcome. One of the best gold miners in the world in terms of investor value imv.

Didn't really answer my question though!

[loganair] 07/2/2019 12:40

Highland Gold Mining (HGM) mine 250k of gold and pay a very good dividend are currently valued at around £520mln...so what is Serabi worth who mine 40k gold and pay no dividend???

[ppvn] 07/2/2019 12:20

That's fair enough. I've been here too for what seems like an eternity, but that's been more to do with my views on gold rather than serabi.

Out if interest (and no worries if you can't be bothered, it's just my curiosity), if serabi can get to 70k+ of production, where do you see their market cap? My numbers based on AISC of around $1,050 which the scrubber should now be enabling them to be.

[loganair] 07/2/2019 11:49

Over the past 5 years, I've heard time and time again that Serabi are shortly due a re-rate.

When I first bought in at 5p in old money, the analysis were saying with in 6 to 12 months Serabi was due to be re-rated to 30p (600p in to days share price)

[ppvn] 07/2/2019 11:39

The market is on your side! If serabi are able to prove themselves as I believe they should be able to, a significant rerate will occur. Woefully undervalued at this point in time in my opinion.

We shall see!

[loganair] 07/2/2019 10:39

I think 32k is rather on the optimistic side.

[ppvn] 07/2/2019 10:17

Coringa is slated for 32k oz in 2020. Similar lead up when Palito began commercial production in 2014.

[loganair] 07/2/2019 09:53

Serabi are saying they'll to be at the upper end of their forecasted 40k to 44k ounces for 2019. Therefore the maxiumum production it seems to me they can hope for in 2020 is 50k ounce and I think they'll be very lucky to reach this figure.

[ppvn] 07/2/2019 09:46

Ah, I see what you mean now, when you said they were paying off loans with shares I wasn't aware of anything of that nature with Sprott, other than the arrangement fees.

For me the jury is still out on Coringa. It'll help them get to the high tens of thousands of oz production, possibly 100k in a couple of years (I think their forecast of 100k in 2020 is probably unrealistic). Their fundraising at 3.6p was at a premium at the time; I wasn't particularly put out by that. We gained a couple of decent investors that have allowed them to shore up a load more resource, potentially expand within their Sao Chico license area and acquire Coringa. For me, the share price is where it is because of the $12m balance due - once that is paid off serabi will be in a very strong position. They'll pretty much immediately be a 70k oz producer.

[loganair] 07/2/2019 09:37

PPVN - Early last year there was the $15mln from Greenstone where 29.82% of new shares were issued and just before there was a Placing of 15% of shares for a further $8mln.

These two increased the number of shares in issue by around 45%, it seems to me one of the main reasons behind Serabi's 1 for 20 Share Consolidation..

[ppvn] 07/2/2019 09:15

Other than the shares used to pay Sprott two times $90k arrangement fees, I'm not aware of any others that have been given in recent years? Have I missed anything?

I was going through some other junior mining peers and most are double the market cap of serabi and don't have working mines that are cash positive. If the bod can get to anywhere approaching 100k oz per annum and assuming the balance of coringa $12m is financed in a similar way to last year (or even via debt?!), the share price here will absolutely fly.

If they hadn't taken on Coringa and were just producing and profiting from Palito and Sao Paolo the share price would be imo above £1 (based on gold at $1300 with 44k oz this year). But, in time Coringa should enable them to be multiples of that if they get to 100k oz. Just have to wait a bit more.

[loganair] 07/2/2019 08:50

Like many other small miners, it seems to me the share price will continue to languish until it stops offering massive amounts of shares to pay off loans which is highly dilutative.