Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 05/2/2019 20:01

Hi PPVN,Thanks for the heads-up on the webcast, I will take a look soon. I am in no doubt about the operating cashflow from current gold production; however, clearly that was inadequate to expand at reasonable pace, hence the fundraising to pursue expansion, including the initial payments for the Coringa acquisition.I am thinking that the latest seemingly tough loan terms agreed with Sprott suggest that that the Coringa payment will require fresh equity as opposed to debt. However, there is also Fratelli and Greenstone to consider - maybe some convertibles instead, which could make it less painful? but not help liquidity.BTW not only is PoG going in the right direction but the 2018 and forecast Real weakness is helpful too!Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 05/2/2019 11:24

£7.65 profit? Wow I hope they don't spend it all at once!! Haha.

Only joking of course. Let's see how Coringa pans out as to what will happen here. If they are able to get it financed on similar terms to the monies for exploration and the second $5m tranche we should be motoring here.

[loganair] 05/2/2019 10:34

Serabi is forecast to have a 45% growth in earnings over the next 3 years and by end of 2020 financial year is forecast to be making £7.65mln profit. The forecast is based on an average gold price of $1,300 per ounce over this time frame.

Edited...

[ppvn] 04/2/2019 11:32

New webcast on Serabi's website; released on 2nd Feb.

Summary is that expectation of 40-44k oz should be on the upper end, Coringa will have updated resource in q1, PEA in q2, and balance of $12m expected to be funded in q3.

Hopefully gold continues it's climb in the meantime. All gone a bit quiet on the ore sorter front...

[gregpeck7] 03/2/2019 10:15

Agree this is such a nice little stock to be quietly loading up with atm.

[loganair] 01/2/2019 10:26

With the increase in gold production and an average price of gold being $1,350 for 2019 conservatively will give SRB an extra $4mln in revenue to best case senario $9mln, 80% of which should go stright to the bottom line as profit.

[ppvn] 01/2/2019 10:16

Hi Tightfist,

Agree with all your sentiment, just to mention that serabi are cashflow positive, and that was with the POG lower than it was today. So much of the plant etc can be paid for with existing monies; they only brought out the "begging bowl" to accelerate their plans.

The acquisition of Coringa with POG here should have had a net positive on the share price as opposed to a negative. Depending on how the remaining $12m is paid for, I think it could have a very positive impact once resolved.

The numbers just speak for themselves, in time, so should the share price

[ppvn] 31/1/2019 15:04

Hi Sherry,

I've been going through a few numbers and sums etc as I've previously wondered similar. Whilst the London line of serabi is fairly lacklustre since the consolidation, I can certainly understand it being worse on the SBI line so you do have my sympathy. I suppose best to just cross reference the sterling price if you buy or sell and make sure you're not being ripped off.

I do agree that it's been a boring and financially painful journey here. However, that being said, I quite often go through the pitiful trading volumes and see that a couple of hundred grand (Not even just sales, that's total transacted. And I've bought quite a few.) has in effect halved the market cap of the company. I personally put this down to the $12m balance due for Coringa.

So where do we stand? Forecast for 2019 is 40-44k oz so with luck, operations should return us (assuming POG at $1350 for the year) around $10m, based on $1100 AISC. Financing cost etc will take a bite, $8m loan, but serabi won't have a whole load of debt. Still fairly healthy cash balance and I suspect they will use this for plant both in Coringa and either Sao Chico or palito.

2020, Coringa will be producing gold that's forecast to be 32k oz P.A.; I think the reality is likely to be less as although they expect to get to the veins this year, gold won't be produced until late this year (balance of $12m due on first gold or 21st dec). If they can finance via debt, great; no dilution and if they issue more equity it'll mean 2020 is likely to be 65k oz (assuming no further growth at Palito and Sao Chico and just 20k from coringa) but from a pretty much debt free miner. If the share price is still bad and liquidity low the BOD would be mad not to embark on a buyback program, either by cashflow or by taking on an element of debt. POG expected to be $1450 by year end (source: GS, yesterday). That'd be over $22m net profit on what I believe to be conservative numbers. You then have the possibility of further mine development on their existing area; Palito was done on an absolute shoe string and with a suspiciously large 7km shear (cindarella zone) the possibilities for more and more growth appear less "pie in the sky".

Volume here is bad, price is bad, investors are bored of promises, etc. The placements of last year seem to be bringing the possibilities to life and at a £25m market cap I'm quite happy (but bored).

Just because nobody is trading at the moment, doesn't mean it'll remain like that. Look at the juniors a decade ago; you'd be hard pressed to find one that didn't jump tenfold!

[sherry35] 30/1/2019 20:22

The production ramp up looks predestined with 50% of the 100,000 ounces appearing in 2020. Coringa planned production start is 2Q19. This accounts for 30,000 ounces of 2019 50,000 ounce increase. The plan shows no followup drilling on Coringa for 2019.

Does anyone know Hodgeson's exit strategy for SBI because this stock should be trading 1000% more than today's volume. Oops that's still zero volume. Nothing has changed.

[ppvn] 30/1/2019 10:01

True enough. Only need to scroll back a few pages to find out where I did most of my topping up! *facepalm*

Anyway, let's hope the corner has been turned as it certainly is (to me at least) starting to feel a bit better here.

[ironstorm] 30/1/2019 09:52

I thought about buying then. But wanted some confirmation

Been bitten before.

Nice price action so far

[ppvn] 30/1/2019 09:38

Hi IronStorm,

Agree, it doesn't take much to move this little share. I'll admit; a few weeks ago in the low 30s I bought more because I was down a fair amount. Went against my better judgement but I justified it to myself because a) they paid $22m ($12m balance to settle) for coringa; when I bought, their entire market cap was not particularly different to that (and still isn't really), b) the illiquidity of this stock I personally think would prevent a market placement and any further cash would need to come from an investor at a brokered price, as last year's was. Because the stock is so illiquid and moves so much on these small transactions, I'd imagine that they have a decent chance of getting financing at a higher level than our current share price The PEA should go some way to providing a valuation on Coringa, and I assume that's why they are doing it?

I didn't want to mention at the time as it felt I was the only one buying in!

[ironstorm] 30/1/2019 08:12

PPVN / Laptop, SRB looks like it could be coming good. Price performance looking up. Not much in the way to get back to the 60-80 price range.

I still have a concern on financing, but have decided to double up (albeit from a low base). Average price still well above these levels.

Will Double-up again if news continues, pog continues to accelerate and price remains in the doldrums.

[ppvn] 30/1/2019 07:39

Yes, all sounds good at Coringa. Resource update could prove interesting and the PEA could also be good.

It's been quite a long time coming but it is starting to feel as though 2019 and onward could be really good for Serabi. If gold goes on a run it could be even better.

Trading volume, whilst still incredibly thin, is also beginning to pick up. At least there is trading most days now!

[laptop15] 30/1/2019 07:12

God RNS today guys!

[sherry35] 29/1/2019 21:18

The Jan 2019 Investor Presentation has been posted. I suggested you download a copy because last fall they made some editions which I picked up on.

hxxps://www.mandalayresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/MND_Investor_Presentation_January_25_2019.pdf

[ppvn] 29/1/2019 11:58

Hi Loganair,

No kidding! To be honest, after all the waiting I've done here it doesn't really bother me too much. Gold seems to be heading in the right direction, they did an OK job with the $15m and $8m placing at the time, and with luck once the question mark over the final payment for Coringa is sorted they should do just fine.

I do wish the ore sorter would turn up though!

That I suppose is balanced by the excellent exploration prospects they seem to be developing. Cinderella zone certainly looks promising to my rather untrained eye.

[loganair] 29/1/2019 11:44

Reality Check - Most mines take longer to get in to production then the miner says and comes up short of production targets.

[loganair] 28/1/2019 22:03

Re-reading 4th quater report - However, with production efficiencies from new initiatives such as the scrubber to improve throughput of stockpiled flotation tails and the planned commissioning of the ore-sorter in the second half of 2019, management expects to see an increase in gold production in 2019, with production forecast to be
in the range of 40,000-44,000 ounces.

Forecasting between 3,000 to 7,000 ounces more in 2019 compared to 2018. I think an average of $1,300 per ounce for 2019 seems reasonable to me will bring in $4mln to $9mln more in income, much of which I would think will go straight to the bottom line as profit.

[sherry35] 28/1/2019 21:31

I felt another pulse. SBI is alive. I suspect they are testing the ASK depth to determine how many shares will be up for sale share price trades higher.

Here is the trade history for the month on Jan. Buyer ID is second last column and Seller ID is the last column.

Jan 28 03:40:47 PM 0.8 500 36 7
Jan 28 03:23:02 PM 0.8 1000 80 79
Jan 28 02:02:00 PM 0.8 500 80 36
Jan 28 02:01:37 PM 0.78 500 80 1
Jan 28 01:24:37 PM 0.63 500 80 36
Jan 23 03:50:25 PM 0.57 500 80 36
Jan 23 09:57:15 AM 0.53 1000 13 80
Jan 23 09:57:15 AM 0.53 1000 79 80
Jan 23 09:30:00 AM 0.53 7 NBDLT 5 7

[tightfist] 28/1/2019 20:50

Hi, total 2,500 TSX SBI shares in four trades results in 40% rise -makes LSE look positively liquid!

[lessentin] 28/1/2019 19:46

Seems to have jumped on tsx today off the back of 3 small trades. Nice to see the share price moving up!

[laptop15] 28/1/2019 17:16

Gold looking good guys, at some stage Serabi will rally too :) volume might pick up at some stage too. No responses from Clive to my last email sent. Good luck all.