Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ppvn] 13/12/2018 11:48

Gold back up near it's all time highs in BRL terms (just over 4,800). Will Serabi ever be able to capitalise on this??

Wonder if the ore sorter has arrived on site yet.

[ppvn] 28/11/2018 09:07

GM IronStorm,

Agree wholeheartedly. Wish the bod would give a sign by opening their pocketbooks as I thought the low 50s was the bottom. Whoops!

Read an article from the gold council yesterday that said mining stocks with high BOD ownership outperform their peers significantly - how right they are!

Fingers still crossed here. IP out and zero trades! Says it all!

[ironstorm] 28/11/2018 08:09

I think a very good story is developing here and as with other Goldies it takes a long time to filter through.

With the price performance recently I would not suggest this is the bottom. But the risk reward on this is starting to tilt.

I expect to buy more at some point. Just a question of when.

[ppvn] 28/11/2018 07:32

IP survey results out; again looks very promising. Still here and still hoping for a bit more performance in terms of share price at some point!

[tightfist] 20/11/2018 18:41

Just noted that Cabral Gold are visiting Mines and Money next week. They are also based in the Brasilian Tapajos - very much in exploration mode, quoted on TSXV and with an MC of £3.4m.Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 20/11/2018 10:56

Hi all,

Hope does indeed spring eternal!

And yes, loganair, agree with what you're saying. In previous presentations they have noted that they are targeting 2m oz resource to be shored up with this drilling campaign. More jam tomorrow, but could that change their fortunes?

[loganair] 20/11/2018 10:52

It seems to me what Serabi are looking for and saying there is a possiblity there may be gold deposits located between their two current mines.

[tightfist] 20/11/2018 10:49

Hi PPVN,This morning's update and prospects look pretty good to me, but I am an untrained eye too.So far this morning's single trade (which looks IMO like a mighty Buy of £199 plus costs) is hardly inspiring! However, on the bigger picture I have reviewed the chart of every stock on the AIM market this week and it is truly depressing - last weekend's Trendwatch reports 4% in Uptrend and 34% in Downtrend, need I say more.......I am resigned to SRB becoming a multi-year game of Patience; internal cash generation (don't forget the Coringa final payment) to pursue more expansion opportunities feels to be a long way away, and raising equity finance at these levels is unthinkable (although the two major holders could finance and push PI's out in the cold....?).Maybe Gold will come back in fashion and someone is circling above...... Hope springs eternal! Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 20/11/2018 09:13

Aerial survey results now in and announced today. The cluster of anomalies looks particularly good to my untrained eye. Not even a single trade though!

Can't help but feel that the market needs to see either much better financial results or some director purchases. Interesting though; they were able to attract $23mm of institutional money here at 72p in common equity. Reality of the share price is what it is, but can't help feeling this is potentially a good punt for the brave.

Will you ever go up in price, Serabi?!

[tightfist] 14/11/2018 07:48

Hi,Quite a few fresh aspects to absorb but within the Q3 numbers it's not good news on several fronts...... Maybe explains the lack of BoD buying action in the market to support the sp?tightfist

[ppvn] 09/11/2018 21:04

Aerial survey results due here, think the full ask was due to the Canadian line going up by 16% on Thurs- on a tiny volume also!

It won't take much to go back up which is why I'm pretty relaxed about my top ups that i rather mistimed in the 50s.

Think q4 results should be nearer the 9.5-10k oz, as well as ore sorter news, plus resource update late q1 that could prove very interesting. Don't know if or when we will move, but hopeful that we shall!

[ppvn] 09/11/2018 11:14

I wouldn't hazard a guess at the bottom myself. Hardly any turnover (c. £75k for the whole of October) so if they do finally manage to get their act together (I.e. make some profit!) it shouldn't take much to get the price back up. If however someone decided to sell a few grand worth it'll probably go further (but again, wouldn't take much to rise again).

Could be a decent return here if they can up the production / resources / grade etc, but as you say, decline is fairly relentless.

Be aware also of the relative illiquidity. I'm prepared to sit in the share for a while but that's because I'm hopeful of them reaching 100k oz.

[laptop15] 09/11/2018 08:16

Is this finally bottomed?? Looks cheap but decline seems relentless.......under 2p old share price

[ppvn] 31/10/2018 12:32

Hi Tightfist,

Think its been an underperformer for good reason. Management have made it plain that their ambition is to get to 100k oz per year for a good while, but really there has been little headway made to that end has there. The interview was upbeat, but then many of Mike's interviews are. The reality is that whilst it may be possible, it's still some way off. I've heard the 100k oz now for well over a year and it's still two years away...

That being said, I'm still here because I like the company. I think the resource potential is excellent and I feel it's reasonable for them to hold off on plant expansion until their exploratory work is complete, though it's clearly impacted on their timescale for delivery of better results. Their last mineral reserve estimates were done years ago - Sao Chico last being done in 2012 and little has happened since.

I personally feel they are going to be able to prove up a significantly larger resource with this extensive survey and drilling program they are doing. Yes it's all very jam tomorrow, but hopefully the jam will come. In the meantime they are running an ok operation that borders on profitability, but with the ore sorter, possible plant expansion, etc etc should get better. Ore sorter is now fairly imminent, resource upgrade q1, aerial survey next month - some of the greenstone cash is going to good use.

The elephant in the room is of course the balance of Coringa. But Greenstone and a few other institutions in the follow on offering bought direct equity so I doubt they will approve of a disadvantageous capital raise. We shall see!

[tightfist] 31/10/2018 12:09

Hi PPVN,Thanks for pointing out the latest brr media interview. I felt it was (more than usually) upbeat and also up-front about possible Sao Chico processing plant investment following the positive exploration trends. Clearly the company is in-limbo about investing until more resource info is to hand. It was reassuring that the Ore Sorter is on it's way by which I assume that it's on the water from Poland? With the Pallito underground mini-kit, the ore sorter and the weakness of the BRL the variable profitability (PoG - AISC) and production is surely set to rise during 2019...... The share price needs to get on it's way up; presumably any Capex at Sao Chico is going to need funding and the May placing (Greenstone shares) are almost 50% under water.........It always seems full of promise but a serial under-performer?Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 31/10/2018 10:48

Hi Tightfist,

Was having a little dig about and there is a new webcast on Serabi's website in which the ore sorter is discussed - it's "on it's way".

With regard to the AISC of serabi being quite high, that was one of the reasons I topped up in quite reasonable size here. Because gold mining equities are essentially a leveraged bet on the POG, I figure that if the ore sorter is able to help them reduce their costs (as I believe is realistic), then that should materially affect their bottom line. In BRL gold has been holding up quite nicely. If for example a producer @ $1100 AISC sees either costs fall or gold price rise by $100, then their profitability essentially doubles (based on POG @ $1200, hypothetically). A producer @ $600 would only see a 16.6% increase.

Higher risk, but potentially higher return. Especially at these levels. May be a little more downside, but the upside does look to be closer than ever...

[loganair] 30/10/2018 20:06

sleveen - I agree as the All in Sustaining cost of mining gold for Serabi is around $1,100 per oz, nearly double that of a company like Highland Gold.

I recall reading in the annual report that in the next couple of years Serabi hope to reduce this cost to a little under $1,000 per oz.

[ppvn] 30/10/2018 16:03

Maybe, I wouldn't want to rule anything out with this lot! Few thousand pounds seems enough to drop the share price quite dramatically, I wouldn't like to see what I'd be offered for my holding at the moment! Yikes.

With luck they can get their act together. Is slightly reassuring that they were able to achieve quite significant investment at 72p (3.6p in old money). If it does go that low hopefully it'd be fairly temporary.

[sleveen] 30/10/2018 15:44

Wafer thin margins, perhaps the production costs are close to the POG now that the annual production has fallen.

There's probably no cash to buy paper, any cash is needed for the extra plant and all that drilling etc.

30p is not unrealistic IMHO.

[ppvn] 30/10/2018 11:35

Wanted to just go through the numbers since the consolidation that happened on 20th June.

Since that time, our share price has almost halved. Total value traded (Including buys and sells) has been £281k. I cannot for the life of me fathom why the company isn't at least using some cash to buy back shares, or why management aren't buying some at what seems to be an absolute knockdown price. They certainly seem optimistic, I just wish they'd back it up with their wallets!

Market cap nearly halved on presumably slightly more than half of the £281k being sells. At least we should bounce quickly, if anyone actually ever wants to buy in here!

[ppvn] 30/10/2018 08:33

Hopefully most of the blood already spilt! Honestly hard to see how we could drop much further in market cap terms. I thought I was getting a bargain when i topped up in the low 50s!

Live and learn!

[tightfist] 30/10/2018 07:59

There may be blood on the ground today. If so, a patient few may grasp the opportunity!

[ppvn] 30/10/2018 07:52

Not ideal I agree.

Production seemingly down ~20% with grade down ~25%, so the additional volume did help a little but it's not great. Resource update q1 2019, but that's again jam tomorrow!

If they keep this up it may just be best to distribute their cash balance to shareholders and call it a day! Market cap isn't far off what they paid for Coringa!

[tightfist] 30/10/2018 07:51

Yes, if you look at hard numbers the year-end forecast at 36/37k is about 3% short of the 2017 result of 37,004Oz and about 10% short of the guidance of up to 40k one quarter ago. But the Real this year is about 15% weaker vs. USD than last year whilst $PoG has been slightly stronger YTD so IMO the variable margin results should look good, before Capex, the costs of exploration, Coringa, etc.The exploration results look good, but it is "jam tomorrow" which this turbulent market is not interested in? More concerning is I haven't noticed any mention of progress on getting the Ore Sorter delivered, commissioned and on-line? Maybe I have missed it....Let's see what happens today! tightfist