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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seplat Energy Plc | LSE:SEPL | London | Ordinary Share | NGSEPLAT0008 | ORD NGN0.50 (DI) |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.20 | 0.14% | 144.60 | 144.40 | 144.60 | 144.60 | 144.60 | 144.60 | 20,757 | 09:28:35 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oil & Gas Field Services,nec | 696.87B | 54.58B | 92.7479 | 0.02 | 1.08B |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
03/2/2015 11:51 | Here's an interesting article. I don't usually take much notice of Fool articles but this one is on the money, I reckon: How Realistic Is A Seplat Takeover Of Afren Plc? Afren (LSE: AFR) has managed to push back debt and interest repayments, and a few investors are happy to bet on takeover speculations, but to me it doesn't look good -- and it does not look like a solution is around the corner, either... After all, why would Seplat (LSE: SEPL), the most likely acquirer, spend more than 5p a share for Afren's equity? Am I being too bearish? Here's what you should know about a possible merger between Afren and its suitor. Way Out Afren was up almost 100% in late trade on Monday, closing at 10p, up 88.7% on the day. It surged 44% on Tuesday morning at the time of writing, but its shares still show signs of distress. Technically, Afren has not defaulted on its debt -- it has just agreed to push back repayments in order to save about $65m. That's not a lot when you consider Afren's debt pile is about $1bn. As you may know, Afren may not have much time to get things right, and while a huge cash call north of $500m would help it continue to run its operations for about a year, such an outcome is highly unlikely, in my view. Then, there remains only one way out: a takeover by Seplat, an independent exploration and production company, which has time to come up with an offer by 13 February. The Deal Afren is not much bigger than Seplat, which should generate revenues of about $900m in 2014, and has a market cap of $1.1bn. Afren will likely turn over about $1bn in 2014, but its equity is worth less than $200m, given that the company is fighting for survival. If Seplat walks away, Afren will be in serious trouble... Seplat secured $1bn worth of refinancing in mid-January, and that's about the total enterprise value of Afren (market cap plus net debt). Combining the balance sheets of the two -- and considering Afren's $1.5bn of debt and Seplat's latest revolver plus additional $500m of existing debt on its books -- yields a pro-forma gross debt position of $3bn for the combined entity. Afren's gross cash position is negligible, while Seplat has about $400m of cash on hand. So, the combined entity's net debt should come in at about $2.6bn in 2014, with Ebitda at $1.2bn, excluding synergies. This implies manageable net leverage, although the problem is how much cash will be needed to fund capital expenditures on an annual basis -- which should comfortably come in at more than $1bn a year. While there remains a reasonable doubt that the parties may reach agreement, Afren can be sold only if Seplat continues to have easy access to capital markets and raises more debt... but, to do so, Seplat will likely want to negotiate a hard bargain for Afren's assets, and there is no reason why it should pay more than 7p for Afren's equity, i.e. roughly last week's level of 5p plus 2p for additional cash savings. Outlook Afren said in its H1 2014 results that it was targeting a five-year double digit production growth. The balance sheet remained strong, with net assets of US$1,972 million (H1 2013: US$1,498 million). "Production ramp up starts in 2H 2014," Afren added, listing a very healthy pipeline including projects known as Ebok ("6 new producers planned," it said), Okoro ("1 infill well and 1 side-track well"), OML 26 ("3 new producers planned, currently logging while drilling (LWD) on first well") and Okwok ("commence fast-track development drilling"). On top of that, it predicted positive outcomes for Ebok deep exploration and "transformational reserves potential" ("only 26% of total discovered 2P/2C barrels in production or under development"). For a company running the real risk of going out of business, such a pipeline is worth very little... but retail investors are mopping up the penny stock. They'll have only themselves to blame if things go bad. As such, I'd expect volatility in Afren's stock price in the next few weeks. Personally, Afren is not worth the risk above 6p a share, although I appreciate any outcome is possible right now. | dukedosh | |
03/2/2015 11:51 | 100k at 139p :) been a buyer around for a few days now and given the low free float it is starting to be reflected in the share price movement.. | sportbilly1976 | |
03/2/2015 11:36 | Let's hope so.. :-) | mellowman62 | |
03/2/2015 11:29 | mellow, quiet BB's are usually a good indicator for a stock... onwards now to 150 :) | sportbilly1976 | |
03/2/2015 10:49 | Mohahahahahhaa - that better? | talk2dubya | |
03/2/2015 10:24 | Still very quiet here | mellowman62 | |
03/2/2015 09:33 | moving along nicely...uptrend forming too AFR recovering from its distressed seller induced lows - an offer around 20-25p per AFR could be coming imo a recovery in POO, an also technically with a nice "W" forming here should see us into the £2's nicely | sportbilly1976 | |
03/2/2015 08:00 | Be interesting to see what happens if/when they pick up AFR on the cheap then. | talk2dubya | |
03/2/2015 08:00 | Be interesting to see what happens if/when they pick up AFR on the cheap then. | talk2dubya | |
02/2/2015 15:54 | Dubya, only ~10% in free float though | sportbilly1976 | |
02/2/2015 14:11 | Yep the volume has really picked up. Very illiquid though... | talk2dubya | |
02/2/2015 12:50 | someone filling their boots at 125p | sportbilly1976 | |
01/2/2015 18:12 | sub £2 soon | mrshaungcm | |
01/2/2015 16:12 | sube 70p very very soon. | hvs | |
01/2/2015 14:48 | Seplat has been given a two week deadline by the UK Takeover Panel to make a firm offer for Afren Plc or walk away. Seplat now has until 1700 GMT on Feb. 13. | dukedosh | |
30/1/2015 09:52 | which is normally a good thing! AFR moving today - I guess the funds' stock which they had to sell has now been absorbed. Which way will the dice roll come 5pm? | sportbilly1976 | |
29/1/2015 17:25 | Very quiet board? | mellowman62 | |
29/1/2015 10:52 | A new one to me - a zero share trade ?? Time Price Qty Type Bid Offer B/S Total Buy Total Sell 10:36:35 130.51 0 O 126.00 130.00 Buy 90,773 17,125 | sportbilly1976 | |
29/1/2015 03:10 | Think all will be known on Friday. AFR issue is not that the assets are poor, but one of liquidity. SEPL hav that liquidity and can pick these assets up for cheap in any share swap. 40:1 would be about right :) | talk2dubya | |
28/1/2015 17:30 | Only until they in the know decide to short lt. | kulvinder | |
28/1/2015 14:55 | Indeed, a lovely "W" all the way back to £2 :) Looking at their 2013 results (2014 due end of March?) only 10% of the shares around in free float, so good institutional support | sportbilly1976 | |
28/1/2015 13:45 | Yep that chart looks beautiful at the moment as well if they do. | talk2dubya | |
28/1/2015 09:47 | SEPL could easily do a 10 or 12:1 paper offer, renegotiate or part-pay some of AFR's debt down with their funds and get a superbly enlarged producing Company. Certainly, the two week extension has played into their hands showing the weakness of AFR's finances | sportbilly1976 | |
22/1/2015 20:36 | 22-01-15 Oil price rebound could take markets by suprise: | coxsmn |
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