Seeing Machines Share Discussion Threads

[ali47fish] 27/10/2023 07:20

kate hill chair buys a chunk

[boonboon] 27/10/2023 06:42

I believe that the DMS part of the gsr regulations is passed just like in passenger vehicles.So after July 2024 every new model will need a DMS system. In 2026 every vehicle will need a DMS system.As such the initial demand next year is likely to be less than the 330,000.Which in a way is good as we can gradually build up our capability.

[nvhltd] 26/10/2023 22:44

The contradiction is that Paul has said many time that there are very few competitors in Fleet and with an annual market size in Europe of 330K commercial vehicles and a drop dead date of July 2024 who is going to meet that demand. Is it conceivable that there won't be enough supply which in turn impacts on commercial vehicle deliveries at least in the first 12 months?

I just hope we are ready to meet the demand if it is there and we don't screw this up by not having the production capacity.

[unionhall] 26/10/2023 17:37

For Auto DMS a lot of the focus has been on 2026 because they focused on that for their projections.

In FY2026 Martin suggested approx 8m DMS fitments for approx $56m Revenue ie €7 per car - down from approx $11 in 2023 - so clearly they are being sensibly conservative there.

But I am more interested in FY27 and FY28 which will be predictable by FY25/26.

Per their Graph - DMS Fitments in 2027 will be approx 12m and approx 24m in 2028.

If that transpires then I believe once SEE are profitable, sometime in FY25, the market will really take notice and the share price will trend to more optimistic numbers.

That will also align with possible first product revenues from Aviation and we will know by then how G3 is doing.....

[unionhall] 26/10/2023 17:15

In the recent presentation PMG said some things about G3 which bear repeating...


1/ G3 will be released at CES (January) for market deliveries by March/April time frame. Very specific and definite.

2/ Having the product available in volume for initial launches will be crucial. "First up, best dressed" he said.

3/ They are getting Purchase Orders now for G3 - not enquiries, not discussions but actual Purchase Orders. Presumably in advance of detailed contracts being signed.

4/ He pointed out that contracts in this area when they come are multi-year - a bit like Auto, the customer will not want to change their configuration during the lifetime of a model if they can help it - so a 50k contract may be for 10k a year.


Like others I am a bit flumoxxed by the disparity between the numbers quoted in different parts of the presentation for Guardian/G3 opportunity but SEE do seem to be in place, in time and understand the requirement. Time will tell.

[base7] 26/10/2023 16:03

At last Octobers Town Hall it was clear that once G3 is launched we hope to have contracts in place for 50k-100k G3 units.I dont recollect numbers of contracts being discussed but if had ,say 5,at 50k units -our installed base in Fleet would grow exponentially.Presumably these contracts cant be signed until the product is released so projected revenues from G3 cannot be included in the projections to FY26 released recently.I dont believe that Paul & Martin are deliberately keeping our share price down by publishing conservative projections & I certainly dont want them publishing projections which transpire to be far too optimistic based on guesswork only.
I also appreciate that The Market moves quickly & other competitors( possibly unknown,as yet) will see our specialist areas as potentially lucrative & I agree entirely that we need to retain our market lead ( assuming we still have one ) & fully exploit it.
Paul & Martin have not invested large amounts of their own tax paid cash not to get a good return & ,as previously discussed we have to hope that if & when we lose our independence we have been able to demonstrate,empirically, our potential for substantial revenue increases & high levels of profitability & cash flow-we may then achieve a decent price for our shares-which is clearly what our Directors think-so lets hope they are right !

[wsm812] 26/10/2023 15:46

You know what hazl? Until you mentioned this I hadn't even realised it but I don't have anyone on filter in this BB, quite amazing as I have a trigger finger when it comes to fools!

[hazl] 26/10/2023 15:37

I do think this is a good board though despite the share price.
People are knowledgeable and informed.

It is a good sign if nothing else.

[nvhltd] 26/10/2023 15:33

Amt: try telling that to anyone that might see their investment wiped out. However, I am hoping it won't be a concern by then.

[amt] 26/10/2023 15:03

If things aren't going well in a couple of years time then we might aswell forget it. So the Magna situation is not a comcern

[nvhltd] 26/10/2023 14:49

Based on the number of times Paul has said that there are very few competitors in Fleet I can only assume they are underplaying the G3 opportunity from the start of Q4 2023 when commercial vehicles will be rolling off the production line ready to be sold by July 2024 with G3. They have said that there are 330K commercial vehicles sold in Europe each year. That's undisputable give or take and depending on macro events.
The question is who is the competition for those 330K vehicles? If we assume the same market share for cars of 40% then that's 132k units from Europe alone,but I keep coming back to the comments Paul has made repeatedly which is who else is in this space? I don't know although I acknowledge that Smarteye must be one of them.

I'm not going to dismiss Smarteye or their product, but what I do know is that we have the advantage of offering the connected monitoring service which Paul believes will be taken up by circa 50% of clients with the system fitted and raises the safety profile from 60%+ to 90%+.

Also there is the arrangement with Mobileye!

So I come back to the same conundrum. Why are their fleet forecasts so low? Underplaying it or they know of other competitors?

[nvhltd] 26/10/2023 14:23

Hazl: it's basically a loan plus interest that is rolled over until the termination date. At that point Magna will either convert the value of the loan plus interest into shares at 11p.

One caveat to this is in the details of the CLN itself as the terms will dictate which party has the power to pay in shares or cash and when.

They can also opt for the loan to be repaid with the interest at the termination date.

In many ways they are in a win win situation assuming that by the termination date SEE are still a viable business whatsoever the share price

If the share price is 22p by the termination date they will almost certainly opt to have the loan paid back in share. In other words they will double their investment. It remains to be see how a placing of those shares of circa 9% on the day of listing will cause the share price to react. Normally it will drive the share price down which is why existing shareholders might lose at least in the short term.

If however SEE does not see any improvement in the share price by termination Magna will have 2 choices. Call in the loan or convert at 5p which would be twice the amount of shares needed to raise the cash necessary to pay the loan back.

If the share price is still at these levels in 3 years time then SEE management will have failed miserably to deliver on their plans. I'm not expecting that, but what we have seen over the past few years is the inability of SEE to del8ver meaningful revenues, miss targets and any good news has not delivered share price appreciation. So anything is possible.

Despite the hype around the Magna deal it was still a loan for the most part that needs to be paid back one way or another and the clock is ticking.

One year has already gone. 2024 we are still loss making, 2025 is break even. 2026 possible profit and the debt is due.

[hazl] 26/10/2023 13:37

I am confused too.
I thought that usually the loan is usually serviced by shares which are sold on the open market keeping the shares low?
Is this wrong?
It seems to apply to other companies.

So basically do they have to pay back the loan?

imo

[nvhltd] 26/10/2023 12:47

Amt. BoonBoon is correct regarding the Magna deal. It's 3 year exclusive, but four years for the CLN. I'm hoping SEE come good especially the SP, but I've been involved with companies with CLN's before and each case the years rolled by and they became a millstone around the companies neck. I think I'm right in saying that the deal represents a 9% dilution if they convert at 11p. It'll be a lot worse if profitability is pushed back even further and the share price doesn't react positively. If Magna don't convert then we have a large loan to pay back. The point is that just 12 months ago Paul said the company would break even in FY2024 and G3 would be released before the end of FY2023. I think he is already cautioning about the availability of G3 product in the early days. This will be a huge shot in our foot if we can't meet demand and allow others into fleet.

AMT: I agree with you that my statements seem contradictory, but that's the point. I'm only relaying what the company are saying / signalling. I am confused and that's the point. Is fleet going to grow by 30% compounded globally as stated in the results or are we going to win significant orders from the GSR regulations coming into force from next July where the market is 330,000 vehicles and there's little or no competition.

[hazl] 26/10/2023 11:57

I think Magna could have given better support.
They had their cake and eat it.

[hazl] 26/10/2023 11:56

However good to see we are one of the few risers....albeit a small rise.

[hazl] 26/10/2023 11:55

Better to try not to need those.

[boonboon] 26/10/2023 10:56

It's 3 years or conversion. The license expires in 2 years so potentially an opportunity to renew with new terms if it still works for both parties.

[amt] 26/10/2023 10:21

Not sure that the loan from Magna has to be paid back in 2 years ?

[amt] 26/10/2023 10:20

nvhvm on the one hand you write they are downplaying prospects and at the same time you write they are overplaying. So perhaps they got it about right

[mallorca 9] 26/10/2023 10:14

I'm adding here.
Once this opportunity is gone ..it's gone !

[nvhltd] 25/10/2023 23:06

I think it's also very suspicious and quite unscrupulous to down play the companies prospects which keeps the share price subdued while taking the opportunity to buys shares.

I don't trust any company executives. These seem to be taking advantage of a low share price which in part is down to their failure to hit their own targets downplay their future sales particularly in Fleet.

I smell a rat.

[hazl] 25/10/2023 16:51

Hmmm.....strength in mergers and acquisitions.

[nvhltd] 25/10/2023 16:50

He also said in response to a question that breakeven would be FY2024.