Patience is a virtue unfortunately patience is not one of my attributes and taken a small profit and reinvested temporarily into Metro. I will be back. |
I expect the plan (hinted at in a previous presentation) will be to get DEWA and some other future acquired assets to production, and ultimately sell the whole lot, including their share of the Kertang discovery, to a bigger player, for £££, Within the next 3 to 5 years.
Thoughts? |
That's a big lump of change for any O&G major to find in these uncertain times for fossil fuels. No wonder they are taking their time to make an investment decision. |
Bit of colour from the Cavendish note..
Valuation
We model the Kertang prospect at US$20.4bn (NPV15, gross) or US$3.2bn net to Seascape. In our Seascape NAV, we risk Kertang using a conservative 5% commercial chance of success, giving a risked valuation of US$26m or 34p/share.
In line with Seascape’s guidance, we assume that Seascape will retain a 15.75% interest in Block 2A post farm-down.
First production is estimated at 2033, before plateauing in 2035 at rate of 1.2Bcf/d of natural gas and 230kboepd of condensate.
Gross capex is estimated at US$4.2/boe or US$6.9bn, with opex of US$4.0/boe or US$7.9bn.
At its peak, we estimate that the Kertang prospect will generate cUS$500m of free cash flow per annum net to Seascape’s 15.75% interest.
It should be noted that given the long development lead time and time to first production, our current valuation of US$2/boe increases substantially the closer we get to first production. |
I think the market makers are having fun this morning, holding the share price down, when the band snaps whoooooosh, 50p+ here we come 🚀. Love the Cavendish note, beautiful read. |
Divmad, watch the presentation on Youtube, plenty of options for developing DEWA. I think Kertang might be more interesting though on that point, will have to see what comes with the farmout.
Katsy, go to cavendish dot com and sign up, pretty simple, few other interesting notes out today as well. I tend to take these with a pinch of salt but they do add to the knowledge. |
Is there a link to this note, please? |
Does the note explain it quantify how Sea will get the funding to develop DEWA and earn that $70mn a year of profit? |
Very interesting note and very conservative imho, don't have a problem with that though:
Assuming Cavendish are talking with SEA, the farmout is still on track for this year.
DEWA forecast to produce more than US$70m of pre tax profit and US$50m of free cash flow net to Seascape per year with production to start mid 2027. I can't see why they have a 30% cos though given these are drilled fields.
Kertang: The 3U case is 20.1tcf, that is insane!
They model Kertang at US$20.4bn with a 5% COS with a risked valuation of 34p per share, 5% is very conservative, SEA have it at 15% or more I think!
All imhi, nai, dyor. Nice note though! |
Looks like that report came out at just the right time to halt profit takers. |
Yep, this definitely qualifies as interesting with the low number of shares in issue, huge recent volume & an 838p unrisked valuation. Those are Rockrose type numbers... |
What price when farm out is agreed |
Really excellent 13 page Cavendish note out today .
Staggering unrisked numbers in there . |
All those that sold yesterday now can't offload into the next leg up. That's why profit taking is healthy in any rising stock. |
Excellent find "bomber" very strong start.🚀 |
Research out from Cavendish this AM with 78p risked target NAV & 838p unrisked . Kertang represents 34p of the 78p , but is modelled at a 15.75% retained interest and at a very conservative 5% chance of success . |
Delayed trade I'm afraid, so a sell at that time. Anyway, all good, profit taking is healthy for any rise to be sustained. We all know the prize so daily trades are not that important. |
76000 buy, now that shows confidence.👍 |
Retest of the recent breakout |
Doubt that "pranchalee" but time will tell. |
Back to the mid 30s then upwards again |
Another top up at 40p could not resist.🚀 |
An exciting week ahead, Breaking news imminent 🚀Hold on tight. |
Perfect fit for ENQ
N Sea is a mess for them
News on Magnus is that SE Asia expansion coming |
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