Zengas et all,Great posts over last 24-48 hours.I love the Geraldine Murphy connection - familiar with her involvement at Impact oil. The dealmaking there has seen that little firm prosper as the world's newest major offshore basin continues to stun the industry.I hope the team secure a big operator that can swiftly move towards field operations and well commitment at 2A.Cash |
Market cap at 30p is GBP 17 million about which is too low.Imo will see 70p ( GBP 40 million market cap) on this rise. Market cap is just too low even after the 100% rise over the last 3 sessions.That should do before the farm out news on 2A |
Welcome chewin. 50 bagger+ from these levels if Kertang comes in. Not to mention the then elevated value of the rest of Block 2A.. |
Joined you guys today. Been watching for months at 14p levels, but it's cheap and somewhat derisked, so initial nibbles this morning. |
Roll up Roll up for the great Seascape giveaway - provided to you by Alistair Bruce, BlackRock, Progressive Capital Partners and other ex-Longboat large shareholders! |
Gonna be a good day today? - or a very good day?
Any shares you can pick up, up to and including a quid, being as they are underpinned by the DEWA value, are basically free lottery tickets for the Kertang £14+ jackpot prize. As our Chairman likes to say: "I like those odds" |
 This presentation from 2023 suggests JM and PE are incentivized to deliver a production acquisition within the next year.
hxxp://seascape-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LBE-Topaz-Acquisition-Presentation-20230912.pdf
When Seascape (then Longboat) got hold of an extra 15.75% of Block 2A through their September 2023 Topaz acquisition (the part they now want to keep post farm-out) the presentation that accompanied the announcement mentioned the incentives that JM and PE have to get things moving, not only in terms of progressing Block 2A, but also with production acquisitions:
From Page 3 of slide presentation:
Consideration closely aligns Topaz team with value delivery from Block 2A
• Upfront consideration of $100,000 satisfied in new Longboat shares
• Contingent consideration of $125,000 upon an exploration well being committed on Block 2A or a farm-out
• Contingent consideration of up to $3 million linked to discovery size and Longboat share price performance for a period of two years post-discovery
• Additional employment incentivization to deliver a SE Asian production acquisition within the next two years |
I'd be very unsurprised if Enquest made a bid here. |
News came out 3 days ago and volume has been increasing every day since. |
Two steps up , one step back , then go again Ladder formation until market prices it correctly |
Had a friend who is a much better chartist than me have a look at this. Target is pretty much bang on 44p which should then become support for the next leg, ceteris paribus as they say. nai, dyor, this is aim junior oilers so don't bet the house on it but that is our initial target share price |
Would be good if the changing of the guard of the IIs following our departure from the North Sea has now turned to new IIs buying, instead of the old IIs selling, which has been preventing any serious rise for months imo. |
I think a large buy is being worked. Should know after the bell. |
Dont sell stock when the sap is running up the tree
Jesse Livermore |
Exactly this Jungmana |
Market cap at GBP 13 million ( 23p) is too low.UPL as an example went to GBP 50 Million market cap not long ago on a hope and prayer with no psc.The 2D seismics on 2A block alone could be worth more than today's market cap. |
Zengas, in the presentation yesterday they mentioned "15.75% and up" retained interest. |
At 24p this has a market cap of £13.7m, Now ask yourself, if another junior oilier had spent £10m on drilling, 3D and announced they just found 14-19mmboe what value would that stock have. Now this is just for the DEWA. I don't even want to think about the 9.1Tcf block 2A |
The budget to run the company has been cut right back after the streamlining in June and they had enough to run it to end of Q1 2025.
I can't see them giving investors a share price valuation of 75p-100p for DEWA and £14.65 for Kertang one day and dilute that figure the next imo.
Why so confident on saying a 'near term' announcement by year end on the 2A (Kertang) farmout. They've also based that on retaining 15.75%. I would expect negotiations must be well advanced when they are touting those figures.
The question is can they pick up a few $million as part of the farmout process that they are hoping for.
I looked at the deals G Murphy was involved with for Active Energy re the farmouts to Total and CNOOC (led to the Venus discovery) but as Active is a private company the details weren't divulged that i can find.
It's her skill/contacts i hope that lands us a good deal given the industry interest and her wide advisory role.
As for DEWA financing - perhaps RBL and cash isn't needed until a year away yet.
Once a project is sanctioned the 2C will become actual 2P reserves. The CPR and valuation on DEWA is to be ready by end H1 next year so i think only then will we see the financing route but as they say they intend to get a financing deal rather than dilution so RBL perhaps.
Where perhaps a raise could come from would be on the basis of a producing asset if it's deemed value accretive but when that could happen is anyones guess - but i don't see that on the horizon just yet. They are looking at building a train of similar opportunities to DEWA so i would assume they would still continue to come at Zero cost and likewise be debt financed - is the next one 6+ months away/summer next year ? As they said, Petronas is sending a lot of stuff their way and have more than enough to look at.
DEWA production should give us around 5,000 boepd based on the 100 mmcf/d expectation along with the up to 2,500 bls condensate/day and given they have to make the most of the PSC 10 yr production timescale i expect that to be up and running/producing in 24 months. Development plan to be completed H1 next year.
All in, this is materially under rated of what's in store just on the DRO front re DEWA, DEWA material upside expectation and any further assets like that - where we pick these up at zero cost - compared to spending $$$$ drilling actual wells to find gas is a rare opportunity. Effectively booking reserves and resources at zero cost and i can see us having north of 50 mmboe in time regardless of block 2A. |
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