Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[haideralifool] 20/11/2019 07:43

""We are very pleased to welcome Mr. Al Menhali to the Board of SDX as a Non-Executive Director. His appointment demonstrates the ongoing support of our largest shareholder, Waha Capital."

Support?

I think his investors may be expecting him to know exactly what's going on.

[shakeypremis] 18/11/2019 19:03

TGG, at this stage I'm not sure. But it's official Moroccan government policy to build it as far as I understand. I also don't quite understand it's purpose yet. I've seen some articles theorising Morocco could become a natural gas import/export hub.

It's really the path the proposed pipeline from the facility to the existing Maghreb-Europe pipeline that interested me. It should pass pretty close to Lalla Mimouna where SDX are supposedly pursuing some 'play opening' prospects.

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/11/2019 17:51

Is the LNG plant you refer to an import or export facility? Not sure either make a lot of sense

[shakeypremis] 18/11/2019 17:48

hxxp://northafricapost.com/25676-morocco-to-renew-gas-supply-deals-with-algeria.html

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/11/2019 13:29

Revenue isn't the issue at NW Gemsa,surely - the issue is the cost of generating that revenue. Guess its future partly depends on the workovers carried out, but if they see it as being borderline economic in 2020, it seems unlikely to be throwing off cash currently

[oilinvestoral] 18/11/2019 13:10

What's the drop in NWG in terms of revenue?

[shakeypremis] 18/11/2019 09:33

Divmad, SD should bring in an extra US$12m/year of extra profit net of everything (excluding maintenance CAPEX as far as I know), once up to full production rate.

Of course this increase in profits will be largely offset by the upcoming loss of NW Gemsa.

[divmad] 17/11/2019 07:14

I suppose I'm just wondering if the size of the potential ramp up in production at SD, net to sdx, warrants a material re-rating. Sure, it offers a solid base from which to move forward, but is that enough?

[brasso3] 17/11/2019 07:09

Take advantage of it while its out of love. Debt free and a decent pile of cash with solid production. In a better position than similar sized companies like PPC and PMG.

[divmad] 17/11/2019 06:40

What will it take to get this share going?

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/11/2019 17:38

Thomas11
13 Nov '19 - 15:31 - 8132 of 8134


2) SD produces approx. 300 Bbls condensate per day

...that's not what SD produces at the mo..... it's the level of condensate production expected when the plant is at full capacity, which as they say, would deliver a lower average production than the nameplate 60mmscfd...

[thomas11] 13/11/2019 17:34

OilinvestorAL - I get the same number

[brasso3] 13/11/2019 17:22

From Harts on LSE:-

Apologies only got half the call got cut off half way through and by the time I got back on the meeting had concluded. Here's the extra info on top of what was stated in the RNS...

Morocco Drilling Campaign 3 key objectives
First 7 are lower risk, will be able to flow gas into customer base instantaneously, 2 wells in north are testing the same play as the south, objective is to test whether it does extend to the north.
Further north Lalla Mimouna: 2 concessions that we have tested in the past but haven’t proved commerciality, drilling 3 deeper targets, larger in size and potential, testing deeper thermogenic play, could open up a new play. Further updates will be in the coming weeks and months

Morocco Demand: 8 customers, 4 have been slower to take up demand, seeing a change now that they are speeding up their consumptions in particular Peugeot. The Atlantic Freezone is the largest driver of new customers on top of these 8. Peugeot factory will act as a magnet to fill up the other 2/3 of rental space, Peugeot is ramping up in 2020.

South Disouq
Revenue for November and December sales will be received in January from EGas and expectation is to ramp up to 50 MMscf/d in Q1. The wells and CPF are currently performing very well.

Capacity is 60 Million for the CPF currently with throughput of 66 million, guidance is 50 to take into account that you don't produce 364 days a year, can expand the CPF in the future by ordering parts. Won't take as long due to knowing what needs to be ordered and the design. However can only expand output at SD through discovering and testing more wells in 2020 by exploring the lookalikes early 2020.

My own take from this Shakey is that the pipeline can take much more than 50 million but our CPF is currently limited to 66 and our gas supply is limited to the 4 wells, so to get higher than 50 million a year we would have to 1) find more gas at SD and 2) Order extra equipment to increase CPF capacity. Apologies for not being able to ask questions I got cut off when someone was asking about condensate income, if anyone has any info that would be great.

[oilinvestoral] 13/11/2019 16:25

Am I right in calculating that net cash flow from SD based on 27% is $12.5 million/ year after the $0.3/mcf OPEX?

[thomas11] 13/11/2019 15:31

Interesting sdx pi conference call

Main takes for me are

1) confirmed sdx get net 27% output from SD following the gov’t take and the partners

2) SD produces approx. 300 Bbls condensate per day

3) we were teased about new “interesting” news flow in the near future

4) Morocco customers are slowly ramping up demand

5) There will be more PI conference calls in the future

[tournesol] 13/11/2019 08:56

p/e basically attributes value to cashflow/profits on the implicit assumption that business is indefinitely repeatable. you can always sell more widgets. its a great measure for widget makers.

resource companies are engaged in selling depleting assets, the more they sell the less they have left. they can only be sold once. selling more of them does not increase the residual value. the accepted way to value such companies is by valuing their assets.

how many barrels of oil or cu ft of gas do they have and what's it worth on the open market?

the p/e ratio has nothing to say about this

[oilinvestoral] 13/11/2019 08:41

TournasolPlease clarify ! I assume you mean for exploration?

[tournesol] 13/11/2019 00:52

novice

you can't apply p/e ratios to oil companies or other resource extractors.

this has been explained many many times

T

[novicetrade68] 12/11/2019 21:26

If the City is consistent, and compared to similar gas plays, they should apply a P/E of at least 5 or 6 or so!? 8 would be even better, but with 5 you get annual extra revenue of $5m times 5, so $25m additional MCAP = 5p-10p+ from todays levels, incl. cost of sales,let's see how they're trying to get on everybody's nerves tomorrow.

[oilinvestoral] 12/11/2019 17:21

Investor call announced tomorrow afternoon

[oilinvestoral] 12/11/2019 15:57

Good push this afternoon! Probably buyers from North America

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/11/2019 11:09

I included condensate @ $50/bbl & 23mmscfd, but allowed more for production costs..... just a ballpark figure....... factor in getting close to target plateau & compare with m/cap

[shakeypremis] 12/11/2019 11:00

Having said that, costs per mcf will be higher at this lower production rate.

[shakeypremis] 12/11/2019 10:59

TGG, I get roughly US$17k/day (not including extra revenue for condensates).

24mmscfe/d * 0.51 (Government cut) = 12.24mmscfe/d

12.24mmscfe/d * 0.55 (SDX's working interest) = 6.73mmscfe/d

6.73mmscfe/d is 6730mscfe/d

6730mscfe/d * (US$2.85/mscf - US$0.20/mscf) = US$17,900/day net entitlement income after production costs but not including extra revenue for condensate or cost recovery.