Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 13/7/2020 14:25

is Tesla one of SMT'S holdings steeplejack??.
Does not even seem to be much of an intra dsy pullback for this share which makes it a bit harder mentally to enter ! A real NOR situation chartwise

[steeplejack] 13/7/2020 14:02

TESLA appears on the verge of joining the S&P 500, a major accomplishment for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk that would unleash a flood of new demand for the electric car maker's shares, which have already surged 500% over the past year.

Higher-than-expected second-quarter vehicle deliveries, announced last week, have analysts increasingly confident the company will show a profit in its quarterly report on July 22. That would mark Tesla's first cumulative four-quarter profit, a key hurdle to be added to the S&P 500.

With a market capitalization of about $250 billion, Tesla would be among the most valuable companies ever added to the S&P 500, larger than 95% of the index's existing components. It would have a major impact on investment funds that track the index.

While analysts and investors have recently become more confident of Tesla's addition, an S&P Dow Jones spokeswoman declined to comment about specific changes to the index.

Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones, had to look back to the dot-com era to recall a comparable situation. In 1999, Yahoo surged 64% in five trading days between the announcement that it would be added to the index on Nov. 30 and its inclusion after the close of trading on Dec. 7. Yahoo's market capitalization at the time was about $56 billion.

"The lesson learned from Yahoo was that when you have an up and coming issue that may possibly go into the index, you should already own a little of it," said Silverblatt. "If you had to get into that stock, you were paying a heck of a premium compared to owning it a week earlier."

Funds that attempt to identically track the S&P 500 have at least $4.4 trillion of assets, according to S&P Dow Jones, and those funds would need to buy Tesla shares quickly to avoid errors tracking the index's performance.

Ivan Cajic, head of index & ETF research at Virtu Financial estimates index managers would need to own roughly 25 million shares of Tesla stock, currently worth $34 billion.

"You have all the index funds that have no choice but to include it," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. "That is one reason why it has been so strong here, in anticipation of that."

Additionally, actively managed investment funds that benchmark their performance to the S&P 500 will be forced to decide whether to buy Tesla shares. Such funds manage trillions of dollars in additional assets.

"Even if you don't like Tesla and you think it's overvalued, the fact that it is going into the index would mean trillions of dollars would have some kind of position," said Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research in Chicago. "As part of their benchmark, portfolio managers would not be able to ignore it."

Up 43% in just the past eight sessions, Tesla is among the most loved - and hated - stocks on Wall Street. It is the U.S. stock market's purest play bet on the rise of renewable energy and the decline of fossil fuels, and Tesla's Model 3 sedan has made major inroads among consumers.

However, short sellers are betting $19 billion that Tesla's shares will fall, the largest short level on record for a U.S. company, in dollars, according to S3 Partners.

Bears point to looming competition from Porsche, General Motors and other longer-established rivals. They are also skeptical of Tesla's corporate governance under Musk, who in 2018 agreed to pay $20 million and step down as chairman to settle fraud charges.

Traders betting Tesla could be added to the S&P 500 have almost certainly contributed to the recent rally. However, Bianco warned that the stock could reverse if Tesla is not added to the S&P 500.

[scrabster1] 13/7/2020 13:39

This is having a brilliant run from end of feb !

[arja] 12/7/2020 21:24

spangle 93 ,
your comments are appreciated and I see what you mean . I have never invested in a unit trust and , as you say , they are a different animal .
But just one thing I would welcome your comments on . SMT give their NTA on a daily basis but how are they valuing their unlisted investments? I assume they are included in the valuation but maybe not which accounts for SMT trading at a premium to their NTA . hope you had a pleasant weekend .

[uapatel] 12/7/2020 15:16

Joby Aviation and Lilium are both involved in vtol cars/taxis and private companies both bought into by SMT this year. Joby is US based and Lilium is European (bought recently).

Telegraph Article.



... Tesla of the sky’ aims to transform transport

Autonomous flying taxi maker Lilium has the ambition to match Elon Musk's pioneering electric carmaker

[29palms] 10/7/2020 22:17

TSLA closed on Nasdaq this evening @ $1,544.64 +$150.37

Will provide a nice uplift on NAV

As always,
DYOR

[greatpepe] 10/7/2020 17:23

Thanks for your comment Spangle93

I am riding the wave like you at the moment :)

Was just interested to see what anyone else thought as its a pretty quiet chat especially with Q2 earning season starting which could scare the markets.
Have a good weekend all

[spangle93] 10/7/2020 15:58

Arja - sorry if this sounds patronising, as it's not meant to. But there's a major difference between unlisted investments held in a OIEC (unit trust) and an investment trust (IT).

SMT is an IT. The share price at which they are traded reflects how much an investor thinks they are worth, guided to a degree by the published net asset value (NAV), but the trade is (simplistically) one seller to one buyer. If a lot of people want to sell, the share price goes down. But the underlying investments do not need to be touched.

The Woodford issue was that with a unit trust, if someone wants to sell, the managers must sell underlying stock to get the cash to meet the seller's request. If there is a high unlisted content here, it's not straightforward, or even possible to sell easily, so if a lot of people want their money, the liquid holdings have to be sold, leaving a high portion of illiquid ones.


As you say, Greatpepe makes a valid argument, which I've considered when it's passed 600p, 650p, 700p, 750p, 800p, 850p, and 900p. ;-) Some of the underlying valuations do look full, but the managers make some very interesting points in their literature that, rather then being a specialist fund, SMT reflects the new mainstream. So I'll risk missing the top by riding the momentum

Good luck

[arja] 10/7/2020 15:34

quepassa,
thanks a lot for your comments which is appreciated .
might be something in what greatpepe says and normally I am suspicious of unlisted investments as hard to exit but seems from what you say that some may be listed in due course . The chart tells the story and it seems to mirror what PCT is doing whiich is another NOR situation . nice weekend all .

[greatpepe] 10/7/2020 14:55

In the short term is anyone else tempted to take some recent profit?
I agree some of these unlisted holding look great its just i fear this tech bubble might burst a little. Not many things go up in a straight line...like this has

[quepassa] 10/7/2020 09:22

Investors are cottoning on fast now to the real hidden value of their stonking UNLISTED PORTFOLIO.

Go to the Baillie Giff/ScoMo website. Look for the Portfolio/Performance tab, then go to FULL PORTFOLIO to see some of the great unlisted investments there, a good number of which are slated for early IPO's.


For example,in my view the potential returns alone on their SpaceX unlisted holdings are literally (excuse the pun) stratospheric.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[arja] 10/7/2020 08:58

incredibe stock and wished I had bought back at 900 yesterday after selling at 914 earlier in session. I am still shocked it has taken off today in such a bearish market ! Will re-enter if any meaningful pullback which seems unlikely today anyway .

[quepassa] 09/7/2020 14:55

Another nice and hefty payday for ScoMo is likely to be next Monday when Palantir is due to IPO for $20 billion.

hXXps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/what-is-palantir-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-supersecretive-20-billion-tech-firm-set-to-ipo-164310444.html


ScoMo have a 0.2% portfolio holding of 27.6million Palantir Pref shares.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dennisbergkamp] 09/7/2020 14:54

QP, do you know who else is a holder in ByteDance?

D

[quepassa] 09/7/2020 14:03

3rd. July.

Morningstar article by James Gard headed, "BEST AND WORST INVESTMENT TRUSTS OF 2020 SO FAR".


SORRY- NO PRIZES FOR GUESSING WHO IS NUMBER ONE WITH AN ASTONISHING YTD RETURN OF 42% IN SHARE PRICE.


hXXps://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/203641/best-and-worst-performing-investment-trusts-of-2020-so-far.aspx


(the runner-up is another Baillie Giff stable-mate - Edinburgh Worldwide but a full 10% behind with a nonetheless very respectable 32% YTD).

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dennisbergkamp] 08/7/2020 20:14

ByteDance - this will be a massive IPO. When is it supposed to be happening?

D

[quepassa] 08/7/2020 16:47

BABA UP a whopping 6.5% in today's session.

New ATH at $252

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 08/7/2020 16:44

PAYPAL inc

1st Jan $110
Today $180.

+ 64%




EBAY

1st Jan $36
Today $58

+ 62%



The amount of NEW SME BUSINESSES which have started selling on the EBAY platform since covid lockdown is off the graph.

Nowhere near yet reflected in Ebay stock price.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[lollipop1] 08/7/2020 16:41

How do peoples see Byte Dance (Tik Tok)?

[quepassa] 08/7/2020 07:48

Meituan Dianping

Ticker: 3690.HK

A year ago HK$ 65
Six months ago HK$ 106
One month ago HK$ 152
One week ago HK$ 176
Today HK$ 194


Market waking up to who and what the mighty Meituan Dianping are. The world's largest food delivery. 54,000 employees.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 08/7/2020 07:40

Post 899 of 19th June refers.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. Ticker: - 0388.HK

Then HK$ 300

Now HK$ 360

It has got a lot further to go.

There will be a big migration and a raft of important new IPO's by some major companies for listing on the HKEX.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[thewheeliedealer] 06/7/2020 20:14

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a Twin Petes Investing Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion covers SMT. We also chatted about loads of other Stocks and as always a fair bit of general Portfolio Management educational stuff. Anyway, if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 26) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful,

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[chriseimer] 06/7/2020 16:33

Something wrong.....elephants are not supposed to gallop!

[robow] 06/7/2020 16:26

fantastic!