Schroder Japan Share Discussion Threads

[ryandj2222] 07/6/2013 11:17

Are you in any other Japan funds? I like the look of JPS and BGFD.

[ryandj2222] 07/6/2013 11:16

Welcome back in - I went back in a little bit higher.

[el chupacabra] 06/6/2013 16:34

in today @ 110

[el chupacabra] 06/6/2013 10:18

Japanese PM, Mr Abe's speech on the country's growth strategy disappointed investors. He did not refer to restarting the country's nuclear programme, something a number of analysts had expected. He stated that he would promote private sector investment through the removal of bureaucratic barriers. He also promised to open up the infrastructure, health and energy sectors and promoting FDI into Japan, together with improving career opportunities for women. Certain cities would be allowed to introduce lower taxes and deregulate further creating, in effect special economic zones. Mr Abe also set a goal to increase earnings by 3.0%. All laudable sentiments, but there were few specifics or any meaningful measures and his statement will not make a difference in the short and medium term. The Nikkei reacted negatively with the market -3.8% lower and the Yen strengthening.

[el chupacabra] 05/6/2013 17:50

interesting ADVFN aren't allowing zerohedge on the white list

[el chupacabra] 05/6/2013 17:46

looks like the 3rd Arrow didn't go down to well, still willing to take a punt at 109 so tomorrow could be the day :)

could also be catching a falling knife and the party is over!!

hxxp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-04/abes-deflation-slaying-third-arrow-underwhelms

[ryandj2222] 23/5/2013 09:17

I got stopped out first thing, at a small profit thank fully. Waiting again for a nice entry... 100/110 seems a good point to aim for!

[el chupacabra] 23/5/2013 08:31

so iv got 122.6, and 108.73 as buy supports.. given its just basically gaped over the first im inclined to wait for the second :)

[el chupacabra] 14/5/2013 22:21

Long Japanese Equities

Another investment theme we have been leaning toward ever since the end of 2012 is a long position in Japanese equities.Back in 2008, we purchased a ten year 40,000 Nikkei one-touch call option. We had been struck by the historical observation that it had taken the Dow Jones Industrial Index twenty five years to recover from the nominal price losses of the Great Crash of 1929 and make new price highs. The gold price had required twenty-seven years to overcome its previous bubble high. Was Tokyo somehow different or would the persistent inflationary threat of a fiat currency and social democracy's abhorrence of deflation be such that dire economic circumstances could once more persuade them to elect public officials intent on repealing the nominal loss?In order to turn bullish, we had to see a further deflationary shock. And as we examined Japan's economy we conceived of a catalyst. As a consequence of the mercantilist policy of seeking an external surplus with the rest of the world through resisting the
yen's strength, the Japanese economy had built up a huge short position against its own currency. This left them, we reasoned, vulnerable to exogenous shocks similar in nature to the Lehman crisis, when the currency strengthened as foreign denominated assets had to be sold to make good yen losses registered back home. We reasoned that further exogenous shocks were likely to produce yet more yen strength. 2011 saw not one but two huge shocks. The global economy weakened as a result of the European crisis, and Japan was struck by a catastrophic earthquake. The yen strengthened sharply. We had posited that further FX strength would create duress at the corporate level and sure enough credit spreads soon widened. By the start of 2012 we had witnessed the nation's two largest manufacturing debt restructurings, and atone point it seemed that the impossible was becoming a reality as household names such as Sharp, Panasonic and Mazda looked likely to go bust. Even Sony only just managed to hold it together by issuing a large and very dilutive convertible.

Conclusion
In summary, as we move into the second quarter the key elements of our portfolio are as follows: long the Tokyo stock market trading just barely greater than its 50 year moving average (comparable to where gold traded ten years ago and where the Dow Jones traded shortly after the attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941), long low variance US equities, long the US dollar and receiving fixed income at the short end sovereign curves.

Hugh Hendry, CIO

[el chupacabra] 14/5/2013 21:47

SJG seems a cheaper way to play teh Jap market to me, much tighter spread and less interest charges than the index... and in some cases has signaled turning points with divergence in the past?

Black SJG, Blue Nikkei 225

[el chupacabra] 14/5/2013 21:30

yes stop's are a must ryandj :)

[ryandj2222] 14/5/2013 21:26

Maybe...but who knows when? I think it's best to have a stop loss on these Japanese trusts (BGFD is also going up well lately)to catch the upside and skip out if / when it crashes!

I suppose the Japanese are really doing a very extreme version of whats going on in Europe and the US with money printing.

[el chupacabra] 14/5/2013 19:49

will Abenomics blow up in his face?

[scorpionwinger] 01/12/2006 10:14

Reserved for holders of the delisted BRTR