Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[tosh123] 13/3/2019 18:14

Everything about this share is speculative, hence why there can be NO guarantees about anything.
Owning and trading in any share is pure speculation, there are NO nailed on certainties no matter what your own beliefs.
Anything can happen at any time, hence why there will always be risks.

Risk is by no means only pertinent to Scancell, it applies to every share, every investment, everything in life, so to dismiss it is nonsense.

I could sell out my whole position here, but then i would risk not being a holder when something great happens, conversely i could hold my position and take the risk that it will be worth nothing at all.... Hence the need to mitigate that risk as soon as possible by playing with someone else's money.

Its like going into a casino and betting £20 on red and it comes up black, law of averages says that if i double up to £40 and put my chips on red again, that it should come in, but it doesn't and i keep doubling up and keep losing until ive got no chips left, and then, the very next throw, guess what, it comes in black.

If i had of been more sensible and only carried on betting the usual £20 stake rather than doubling up and doubling up and doubling up , i would still be in the game when the ball finally landed on black, thereby standing a chance to start a winning streak and make money.
Theres a message and a lesson to be learnt there ineptico, its up to you whether you heed it or not.

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 17:10

Bermuda

well it's a discussion .. i am not arguing for any of these speculative discussion points

as by their very nature, they are speculative .

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 17:07

The £20m refers to ONW ... he posted that is the amount Scancell needed to raise

""I remember that £20m was going to be our saving grace up until earlier this year.""

my post followed on from that post ..

so £20m is not my valuation .. just a discussion number

[bermudashorts] 13/3/2019 16:52

Inanaco,

If there is a BioNtech deal, the most likely structure IMO is a license agreement for Modi1 TCR with an agreement to collaborate on an additional number of TCRs to be developed from the Moditope platform. Regardless of whether Modi1/2/3 are interlinked they can - and have to come up with a valuation for the IP they're licensing. Additional cancer targets are easily dealt with in licensing agreements via milestone payments. You must have some idea of a valuation in your head because you've mentioned £20m plus BioNtech stock - was that for the whole Moditope platform or just Modi1 and what sort of value do you attach to the stock?

Just also wanted to make another point re. the concept of an offer of BioNtech stock in lieu of up front cash. I can't see why BioNtech shareholders would ever agree to it, why would they? They've invested in BioNtech and taken all the risk and are about to reach what for many may be the end goal - IPO, certainly a chance to get some return on their investment. Why would they dilute that return in advance of the IPO?

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 16:49

By the way that is the information that would have been collected by BioNtech on its other TCR programs ... so that would apply equally to the current Collaboration

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 16:41

Bermuda

You can see why i would have difficulty in placing the value of any deal done

if it was straight 3 epitopes with a legal link to 3 targets than the potential of that is possible to calculate

but what if the target is 17 ?

what we don't know is how good this process is in "blood" taken from a immune system that is compromised or very late stage cancer patients blood which would be saturated with erroneous cytokines

we are missing loads of information to make an informed opinion of value ...

this one really is down to the skill of Scancell and BioNtech to understand what they have from the collaboration because its biggest market is in patients that are the most difficult to treat

[bermudashorts] 13/3/2019 16:29

goooosed - ah some good news!! thanks for posting and thanks to Scrumpy too.

[oldnotwise] 13/3/2019 16:28

Inanaco
Thankyou, That's great.
Re Tosh, he followed my comments as a swap so he's not wrong. I misled him.
ATB

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 16:20

Yes no problem ... ONW

Tosh is getting a bit carried away now

[gooosed] 13/3/2019 16:19

Berm - re your 20608 Courtesy of Scrumpy





Holloway - wakey wakey !

[oldnotwise] 13/3/2019 16:18

Inanaco
I owe you an apology.
Thought we were doing a share swap.
Certainly SCLP would not issue shares against the Biontech.
However the Biontech Private shares would still create a problem that cash or Listed shares would not. However it's never a good idea to take equity instead of cash if the original requirement is to finance a business.
I have apologised for my oversight I trust you'll accept it.
It doesn't change my basic premise that I don't see the benefit when SCLP needs FUNDING.
ATB

[tosh123] 13/3/2019 16:16

ONW,
you are not over complicating it at all, in fact you are absolutely correct.
Even if they could issue additional shares in a privately owned company, who would buy them ? Who sets the price ?
As for them giving them to Scancell in a share swap, again, who would value the shares and what would Scancell do with them ?
They cant sell them because theres no secondary market, and even if they could find a bank or institution to repo them, they would be haircut out of sight !... I bet they would only get 25p on their pound via a repo, but more probable, is that they wouldn't be able to repo them anyway.
The rules around holding illiquid assets on your balance sheet have changed considerably since 2008, hence the QE programs, Banks just cant do it anymore.
The financial penalties are massive.

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 16:13

your post

""" Since your proposal For let's say simply GBP20M would involve SCLP issuing (Probably 100%+) of its current Market Capital in shares to obtain merely the cash element of your proposal,"""

sorry ONW ...

I have no idea why scancell is raising £20m ... as per your post ??????

i have NOT stated that ... SO

please cut and paste my post that does

maybe Bermuda can explain to you

[oldnotwise] 13/3/2019 16:09

inanaco
You're talking nonsense, I didn't say they couldn't I said it was impractical in terms of the proximity of the IPO and also the fact that Scancell needs LIQUIDITY. We're not an investment house, we need funds to run the business.
So please don't tell me what I understand or not, you have no idea.
I asked you for the total raise in this connection. You would not say.
So I took the small GBP 20m as the total of the raise and demonstrated the difficulties this would create rather than Biontech either giving cash £20M. You talk of overcomplication, For £20m we take cash, end of,
If you want to talk bigger sumns let me know particularly how much you envisage your proposal would work for.
AIMO

[dgduncan] 13/3/2019 16:01

What would you think if someone borrowed some houses owned by you and your neighbours from the mortgagees and immediately sold them on the market ?. Sent out a circular saying there was a possibility of a motorway going through the area. With the glut of houses for sale, prices would crash and other owners would then get theirs on the market super quick to try and sell before the prices went even lower. What was once a respectable area is now a not so vibrant area. The ‘someone’ then buys the houses back at the lower prices and gives them back to the mortgagees. Job done and pocketed a good wedge and you still have your house - albeit a lot less in value. The ‘someone’ has pocketed a good sum but at yours and the other owners’ expense. Is this legal ??. No - of course it is not as this would be a ludicrous situation. It is however legal to do it with your stocks.
The AIM is less liquid than the main markets and is a breeding ground for this practice.
If you disagree with selling shares you do not own, please sign the government petition :

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 16:00

ONW you are over complicating ... when you did not even understand that a private company can issue shares

why is scancell issuing shares ?

it would receive £20m upfront plus shares in BioNtech

not pay £20m to Biontech for the privilege

[oldnotwise] 13/3/2019 15:51

inanco
Since your proposal For let's say simply GBP20M would involve SCLP issuing (Probably 100%+) of its current Market Capital in shares to obtain merely the cash element of your proposal, and as shareholders would have to agree just that bit of it, do you really believe that the longsuffering shareholders here would stand for that without some sort of sweetener?
Not only that, if we revert to your original proposal to take Biontech Private shares before an IPO, even if you could arrange that (which I doubt given the costs and probable compliance issues, you still leave Scancell with no cash, but illiquid private shares).
Who makes the price for the private shares we hold? Once you've found a banker to do that (thus collateral for borrowing against no practical reference point -thry're not market tradeable shares), you'll need to arrange for the loans to be set up etc and drawdowns, all against the risk of taking assets which are non Sterling , so don't disbelieve me, that'll cost too!
So having done all of this how then do you placate the existing shareholders who you've now Diluted out of sight whilst giving those shares to a collaborator who (because they're involved as an investor) will probably double if not more the 50% of the share base that they now hold through no cost to them and who have completely P*ssed off the loyal shareholder base who now have to see more funds wasted as the company arranges borrowings agains the Biontech (illiquid) shares that they now hold.
I'm not really sure that the EGM called to arrange the new share issue would go particulalry well, do you?
I've kept this simple.

That completely ignores the IPO and market rules for holdings in a UK listed company.
AIMO

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 15:45

so basically i see the collaboration as an objective guide to the potential,

so whoever takes on the Modi1 epitopes ... will need 2 and 3

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 15:42

Bermuda ....

it's more involved since the release of the homocitrulline data with the knowledge that they can work in Combo

I tried to explain all this in the run up to the GC. that Modi1/2/3 are interlinked

[bermudashorts] 13/3/2019 15:38

Inanaco,

At the moment the licensing option only covers Modi1 epitopes so let's stick to that. Can you give a rough idea of the amount you're expecting for any licensing deal for Modi1 only in terms of upfront payment, milestones and royalties. Only just your best rough guess.

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 15:35

ONW

That is what discussion is for ...

i have not moved, i am giving you a principle of value enhancing potential

now your asking me to predict the results of the TCR program and the value BioNtech would attribute to it .. ?

surely that is what the collaboration is actually trying to assess

[inanaco] 13/3/2019 15:30

Bermuda ...

as i have already explained these core epitopes cover 17 cancer indications

and indeed if they combined it with the homocitrulline program and added in the potential of the other 34 citrullinated proteins .. then a deal could develop that is substantial

now the reason is BioNtech is already proving up the Three epitopes so if a deal was done on those 3 they would be confident of the overall Moditope science

BioNtech are still committed to Modi3 ..as per scancells RNS ..

so why not present the entire program at IPO .. ?

[oldnotwise] 13/3/2019 15:26

Inanaco
I completely understand the concept.
However, You've moved your proposal already.
Now it's CASH and SHARES....
BUT
How much (value wise) do you consider you could do in this deal (In total?).

[bermudashorts] 13/3/2019 15:24

Inanaco - what sized deal are you expecting for licensing of modi1 TCR?

[bermudashorts] 13/3/2019 15:23

Another one to add to the list - sell off a glycan mAb or 2 :)