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SAVP Savannah Petroleum Plc

8.90
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Savannah Petroleum Investors - SAVP

Savannah Petroleum Investors - SAVP

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Savannah Petroleum Plc SAVP London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
0.00 0.00% 8.90 00:00:00
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
8.90 8.90
more quote information »

Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 06/1/2021 17:52 by mount teide
It's not often that PI's get an opportunity to build a position in a high cash generating company like SAVE at a discount of up to 80% to the weighted average price of the group of blue chip Institutional Investors that have supported the placings to date.

Placings:
01-8-14 = $50m raised at 56p
10-7-15 = $36m at 38p
07-7-16 = $40m at 38p
22-12-17 = $125m at 35p
24-1-19 = $23m at 28p

$274m raised at an average of 39.1p

In 2021 with potential annual free cash flow of $140m from Nigeria(Finncap Note) some 30% of that could be returned as a dividend.

$42m at an exchange rate of £1/$1.35 is about 3.1p/share - 21% yield on the current share price - 10% yield on a share price of 31p or 5% yield on a share price of 62p (excluding any contribution from Niger.

AIMHO/DYOR
Posted at 16/4/2020 10:32 by plentymorefish
No doubt it'll all come out in the wash......the warning signs were there many months ago but if you tried to call them out you just got shouted down.....trouble now is there are so many 'bargains' to be had with the recent market falls that you can buy elsewhere for a potentially great return with none of the 'in country' risks associated with this company. I imagine AK is now the highest paid CEO based on the ratio of salary to MCAP.....what's he achieved from an investors perspective to warrant that seeing as nobody (unless you've traded the highs & lows along the way) can be in profit?!
Posted at 08/4/2020 09:08 by zengas
It's possible the tweets were not intended as any update for actual investors at all.

Yesterday was world health day but on top of that Nigeria just in the last week has seen less power generation and a lot of it blamed on lack of gas delivered to the generating companies. Also on 2nd April Nigeria issued notices to reduce staff at oil/gas installations as the country is in lock down.

Therefore the tweets may be more aimed at reassuring the public/business in Nigeria that Savp are unaffected and as stated have been increasing gas supplies essential for power generation while taking all steps to protect its staff at the same time.
Posted at 08/2/2020 11:20 by zengas
As i've said before i await to see the update for Niger and agree it's been painfully slow. What's keeping me in is that when they took the assets on, they've certainly been proved 100% correct on the high chance of success so i see no reason why this can't be magnified many times over given the close proximity and analogous nature of the prospects yet to drill.

I never expected to see every single one drilled and with a target of some 2.8 billion bls of already risked recoverable oil, i've felt that getting just 18% of that net to Savp at the lower $4 per/b estimate would be enough to create $2b worth of value for Savp especially with a major pipeline on the horizon as well as domestic supply.

On the other hand to get such a comprehensive and reworked improved Nigerian deal through with so many parties concerned imo was no mean feat. So i personally feel that deserves credit and if he/Savp can do that then imo there's hope for future and less complicated deals in continuing to grow the company. The first announcement of what i hope are many new customer deals has started to filter through already and they beleive the capacity of the gas processing facilities will be fully utilised by the end of the year.

As regards not having hands on O&G experience i'll agree but he certainly has a good team around him and they used the best legal entities (one sits on the board) in dd and he's also been able to bring on board many top blue chip investors/world bank arm etc to invest in Savp as against many CEOs who have that O&G hands on experience but don't bring in sufficient core investors. Two CEOs that didn't have an inch of hands on oil gas experience were Scots born Henry Cameron who led Sibir to a £2b takeover and the UKs Peter Levine who took Imperial Energy to a £1.4b takeover. Personally i'd judge the company as a whole and the people who are there and not base it solely on the CEO. Like the 2 other CEOs mentioned he has a major shareholding and if he does as well as them, then he could be in for a similar payoff incentive on his holding and every reason to get the share price to perform.
Posted at 15/1/2020 13:06 by zengas
pmf, The very last interview just a few weeks ago reiterated that he wished to get drilling again close to the existing discoveries and right up the flanks so unless he is completely misleading investors then thats another matter.

The 7e deal took 2 years to see through with only 5 Niger wells drilled imo as a result of that delay/cost implications.

With the deal concluded 2 months ago and the cash inflows from same and part sale, as well as ongoing cashflow, unless he has mislead investors in those 2 most recent interviews, then they need to follow through with the CPR and drilling plans in an announcement as there can now be no excuse not to.
Posted at 13/1/2020 17:12 by nametrade
ngms27..

So investors couldn't see that happening at 27p.....um I don't think so do you...

Investors not liking the delay in gas contract and forward guidance from previous update in my view.
Posted at 10/1/2020 15:58 by itsriskythat
My notes from a private investor presentation by Savannah at TPI on 14th May 2018 ..

"Andrew Knott’s presentation was opaque, with mumbling and more mumbling as he faced the board rather than the audience.

Clearly there are numerous side deals that Andrew Knott has done with several Nigerian counter-parties to get this mainly gas-related Seven Energy purchase through. Trying to close the acquisition is proving more troublesome as there must now be some revisiting of the terms of the deal. It has not been completed yet, but Knott simply said to his audience they are working through all the obstacles.

Knott also said not to expect much benefit in terms of cashflow from the rising oil price as the gas sales agreements and hedges are structured to provide an income stream that only increases by 30% of the oil price increase and vice versa. The value he sees in the acquisition comes from the NPV of the income stream which exceeds the $280m price that was paid.

No mention was made throughout the presentation of the share price, so I guess that this isn’t his concern, as he is in this deal for the long term to benefit himself from the warrant exercise down the road. He is also in a concert party with Ariala Capital and Ludivine Capital, being all family members.

He said that he has short term ambitions to buy additional Nigerian upstream assets. These would be in infrastructure, because Savannah would be able to supply additional customers in Nigeria without the need for third party access to pipelines.

Separately in Niger each well in the current campaign will be declared commercial according to Knott. He’s said he staking his credibility on that, whilst also saying that the only pipeline required to sell his oil will be built by the Chinese for exporting their own oil. The Chinese pipeline completion date is likely to be 2021 and he will need to strike a transportation deal.

My guess is that Andrew’s heart tells him Savannah is his own private baby for the benefit of his family and that public shareholders may not benefit to anything like the same degree."

Fast forward to 2020 and what's worrying to me is that Andrew Knott still shows the same flaws.

It was to my regret that the last investor question and answer session was at 9:30am on a weekday in November. Never-mind that my questions were lost, but there was no replay of the session for anyone who missed the dial-in to listen to the answers. I see that people are still struggling to get answers to questions.

I've spoken to IR just before Christmas but it felt like an intrusion rather than a welcoming exchange.

I really hope that these communication issues are addressed this year and soon. There's got to be better dialogue between Savannah and its private investors.
Posted at 08/11/2019 07:53 by plentymorefish
Interesting question.....not sure what I've made up, I've often backed up posts with RNS' issued by SAVP. It was the company that has been telling investors via the market that the 7E deal would be completed by the end of Q3 2018, Q4 2018, Q1 2019, Q2 2019, Q3 2019. This is a BB for an exchange of views/opinions and imo the company (not deliberately, I'm sure) misled the market. On the back of that, people will have lost money having bought in much higher and maybe sold when it went all the way down to 12p earlier in the summer. If you've kept the faith, fair play to you but on AIM there are dozens of posters who've believed those telling them that their particular company is different and they're all going to be millionaires. Fact is today, now that the deal is very nearly done, you can still buy in cheaper than IIs and some private investors that have taken part in previous placings. Anyone who bought 3 years or so ago and has never either averaged down/up/sideways or traded in anyway, ie just bought and held, is sitting on a paper loss. It is those investors that have taken the risk and those who have taken none can buy in even this morning at a lower price than those lth's. If my postings annoy or you believe mislead etc, it's oh so easy to press the 'filter' button, that's why it's there. If you want to have a look at egregious posting, take a look at metro bb or plenty of others. Hope that answers your question......ATB
Posted at 07/9/2019 12:53 by mount teide
Goehring & Rozencwajg - Natural Resource Investors and Fund Managers - Issued a new report today investigating the huge anomaly between the pricing of commodities and their equities.

Well worth a read.

Global Resource Anomaly: Commodities versus Commodity Stocks - Goehring & Rozencwajg

“The physical commodity markets and the natural resource equity markets are telling two drastically different stories.”

At Goehring & Rozencwajg, we are deep-value, contrarian investors. For nearly 30 years, we have been studying long, drawn-out bear markets. One of our observations over the years has been that distinct anomalies develop at or near the bottom of these protracted periods of investor negativity.

As investors become increasingly panicked, reason often gives way to strong emotional responses. As value investors, we are inclined to doubt the efficient-market hypothesis.

However, we do agree that the broad market serves as an aggregate measure of investor expectations. Therefore, whether the market is right or wrong, you would expect its views to be internally consistent. While this is true most of the time, there are distinct periods where emotion takes over entirely, and Mr. Market appears to offer contradictory advice.

We believe these periods are often associated with major market turning points and so we study them intensely. Today we would like to touch on one major anomaly currently underway that we hope is a sign we’re nearing a capitulation bottom in the commodity markets.

The largest anomaly we see today is the price action between commodities and commodity stocks.

We were quoted in Barron’s on June 28th, 2019. The article discussed how the first half of 2019 was the strongest start for commodity prices in 11 years. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index advanced by 13% over the first six months of the year to end at 2,497, the highest first-half advance since 2008.

Since the bottom in February 2016, the index has advanced by 32%. Focusing on oil, WTI advanced by 30% during the first six months of the year, making it the second highest reading in 11 years. Oil prices are now 125% above their February 2016 lows.

An energy equity investor, however, experienced something very different. For the first six months of the year, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Index was up only 3%, the sixth worst start to the year in the past two decades.

Since oil bottomed in February 2016, this same group is up less than 5%, lagging the commodity price by 120 percentage points. While larger capitalization energy stocks did better since the market bottomed in 2016, even the market-cap weighted natural resource stock index only returned 21% over the same period.

The discrepancy in the oil service stocks has been even more stark. For example, since the oil market bottomed in February 2016, the OSX is down 41% despite the doubling of the oil price. So far this year, it is down 3% despite the best start for the commodity markets in over a decade.

The physical commodity markets and the natural resource equity markets are telling two drastically different stories. The physical markets are telling you that chronic tightness has emerged in several commodities, while the equity market is telling you the whole sector is nearing distress.

Notably, this alleged distress is not being reflected at all in natural resource-related bond prices, often a good indicator of potential trouble. We believe this divergence is incredibly important. Rarely do the commodity markets and natural resource equity markets differ so materially. This divergence should not be ignored.

One interesting measure of global commodity demand is the BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index. This index represents the price to ship dry bulk goods and is a composite of Capesize, Panamax and Handysize vessel day rates. While other factors, including the supply of new vessels, can certainly impact this index, it is often used as a real-time barometer of global commodity demand.

We cannot reconcile the idea that global commodity demand is slowing at the same time as the cost to ship that demand is surging at the second-fastest rate ever.
While none of these anomalies on their own prove that we are nearing a turning point, we do believe they point to a natural resource equity market that has been gripped by fear and panic.

For many investors, last fall was the final straw and we keep hearing of clients who swear never to re-enter the natural resource markets again. As contrarian value investors, these are precisely the markets we like to get involved with. We believe these anomalies are indications that equity investors are not acting rationally, but rather are extrapolating a never-ending trend. The indications are stacking up that this commodity equity bear market is living on borrowed time and that a turning point is fast approaching.'
Posted at 26/6/2019 07:58 by itsriskythat
Clearer on Friday

From the Annual Report on 31st May, which is not that long ago, but it seems an eternity:

“Despite the obvious value accretion of the Seven Energy Transaction and the exploration success we have enjoyed in Niger, since announcement of the Transaction our shares have underperformed the wider index. This followed the period prior to the announcement of the Transaction during which our shares had outperformed our peers. This underperformance came despite management holding in excess of 120 meetings with investors and providing regular corporate updates through a variety of media, and appears to have been driven by an enhanced perception of Transaction completion risk. This comes despite the fact that the extended completion timetable is a result of the positive amendments to the Transaction discussed earlier in this letter. We hope and expect that, following completion, we will be able to demonstrate the full potential of our enlarged asset base and our share price will then perform accordingly.”

Clearly the management have been holding further meetings with investors. The total was already 120 meetings, and since investors are now nervous, you can be certain that further meetings have been held in the last couple of weeks.

The obvious conclusion is that management is continuing to placate investors, and the low volumes recently are a clear indication that they haven’t been panicked into selling. The degree of completion risk will become clearer on Friday, as management will have to work hard to placate everyone, including me at the AGM.

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