Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.30p +1.13% 26.90p 1,796,918 16:35:10
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
26.80p 27.00p 27.40p 26.00p 27.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -20.26 -7.40 81.3

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Date Time Title Posts
20/9/201819:12◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►2,968
20/9/201817:13Savannah Petroleum Plc88
08/8/201809:00Savannah Petrolium4

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Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 26.60p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 25p and a 12 week average price of 23.70p.
The 1 year high share price is 45p while the 1 year low share price is currently 23.70p.
There are currently 302,083,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,240,007 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £81,260,447.24.
alamaison5: Another schizo who think he's warren buffet, lol. Mind you W.B is slightly more well off than fat Malcy, xxx. What a bunch, what a bunch...But still, you're funny :=} R4 is a duster and I will buy one or two days after the sad news. Anyway, if by miracle you were to hit something, it probably have no effect on the share price as the last 3 drills... I was in all 3 and the most I've made was 5%...
alamaison5: Looking at the share price action I doubt it, lol
alamaison5: Until they test the well and prove that's it commercial the selling will carry on. Also, as we all know, there is a forced seller. If SAVP hit a duster you could see it fall by another 10% easy. Why buy know? Even a stick, and untested again, will have little effect on the share price...
zengas: Definitely interesting news and some very, very high profile companies mentioned From 20/8/18 post - '…. You have to take into account what effect new money could/will do for the company? Diversify into additional ssets ? (in turn generating more value or cash if production) Potential money from Asma of $30m + $60m = $90m. Potential exercise of institutional warrants = $60m. Possibility of $150m - $250m Niger farmout and whether they want or need it ? (but doesn't do any harm to derisk, ie take in some cash without all your eggs in one basket there, given there's a huge 2.8 billion bls risked number to go for. You could apply some of that cash to somewhere/something else. All of the above is $300m - $450m potential new money not counting possible borrowing potential of perhaps up to $100m+ (possible cash availability up to $400-$500m). Cash value alone could be worth the current share price. That's why i think AK meant by having plenty of corpporate options or similar to that affect. In turn if the transaction is signed off that will provide up to $100m/yr cash flow. That cash flow and early start up of production in Niger would more than likely finance all of Savps drilling in Niger. Drilling another 25 wells in Niger is about $100m minimum to the sokor alternances without flow testing them all. Possibly another $20m+ on 3D and i would expect the EPS up and running from borrowing while it in turn generates revenue. That might eat up $150m minimum of the farm out if it happens. Cost of ongoing wells expensed on a 50-50 basis if it was 50% farmout. '
honestmarty: I am very upbeat here after yesterday's rise, and the lack of selling. The very large sells of previous days appear to have stopped, and the price jumped under continued buying pressure. Was it a bondholder? We may never know. Investment strategy can change at short notice, we may have just been unluck, it could have been sector specific and in no way a judgement on SAVP uniquely. Perhaps some oligarch fancies a new superyacht or has to fund a divorce? I expect this rise to continue as the smart investor sees the confirmation of the Q3 RTO completion in the updated presentation as a signal that good news is imminent. Completing the RTO will have a dramatic effect on sentiment and the share price should respond appropriately. Hold the line.
gmr64: Mirabaud note this morning: Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced this morning that it has secured backing from the Niger Government for an Early Production Scheme (EPS) in the Agadem basin. The company has signed a binding MoU with the Government providing a framework for the early development of oil recently discovered in the East R3 area. As part of the agreement, the Government will facilitate commercial arrangements for: (1) the sale of oil to the SORAZ (domestic) refinery in Zinder - jointly owned by CNPC (60%) and the Government (40%) - which has spare capacity of 5-7 kbopd, and (2) the use of CNPC's 463km domestic pipeline and processing facilities in the Agadem basin. Assuming implementation, this would allow Savannah to truck crude (up to 5-7 kbopd) 60km north to CNPC infrastructure where it would be processed and delivered by pipe to the refinery for a fee. Importantly, under this scheme, Savannah would look to lease much of the surface equipment (initially) - including wellhead facilities - meaning the capital costs involved would be limited to drilling and associated gathering (we estimate ~US$6-7m/well). In our opinion, the MoU is a clear statement of intent by the Nigerien Government that it is keen to support Savannah in establishing commercial sales as quickly as practicable. We note that the MoU includes a commitment by Savannah to submit a pre-feasibility study within 90 days, followed by a request for authorisation to commence production. Understandably, at this stage SAVP hasn’t committed to timescales to first oil, however, in our opinion it would not be impossible for the first sales before the end of the year (as part of the upcoming well testing campaign). We expect initial volumes to be modest (0.5-1 kbopd) with production ramping up to 5-7 kbopd over the medium term. Assuming a ~US$25/bbl net back (at $70/bbl), our back of the envelope calculation suggests that every 1 kbopd of output might add ~US$9m of annual post-tax CF at current prices. Today’s news has come faster than most could have expected, with the company only spudding its first well at the end of March this year. Since then it has recorded three discoveries out of three, with results from the fourth well due over the coming weeks. Despite this success, Savannah’s share price continues to languish, in our view due to the length of time that it is taking to close the Seven transaction in Nigeria. We have always maintained that the risks to completing the deal relate to timing rather than anything else, and it is encouraging to read in today’s RNS a brief comment that the transaction remains on track to complete this quarter. With Nigeria completion now in sight and Niger running ahead of expectations, we believe SAVP has all the ingredients for a material re-rate with the stock currently trading at a less than half our Total NAV (66p/shr).
zengas: Some other points Nigeria assets -Gas Production capacity to increase from 200-400 mmcf/day. 22,000 boepd is take or pay so production figures not relevant right now - they get paid that amount regardless. Potential new customers are paying the equivalent of $11-$15/mcf for diesel whenever gas could be supplied at around $7.50 mcf (big mark up for Savp interest/Accugas and huge savings to customers v diesel). Looking to increase production 3 fold. Main focus is on Niger and Nigeria current assets. Did mention on the acquisition front "looking at other deals just now" though going back to previous very recent interviews these may be bolt on opps. Re Niger - Export Pipeline Savp have access to , would get a 12.5% return on that infrastructure investment (more likely to be the benefit to whatever partner Savp bring in). Normal drilling in the Sokor Alternances is 1-2 discoveries from 6 Eocene sequences E0-E5. Want to prove up as much oil as possible. Described as 'World Class' asset. Going back to earlier post regarding even the smallest discovery as an example - all can be commercialised. As i always beleived - drill as many structures as possible to tote up the numbers to as high as possible in terms of reserves/value and over 1 billion bl potential so far in the CPR. R1 wasn't drilled simply because more feasible to drill R3 nearest existing and planned infrastructure. Will be drilled. Govt had no problem in extending it as more reasonable to crack on with R3 from all view points and from what i interpreted it as an agreed strategy. R2 prospects are deeper and more costly to drill and what i heard will be drilled but only with a partner/rest relinquished. (R4 not mentioned in depth from what i recall but same priority as R3). Production via pipeline 2021 (circa 3 years). Plan was alsways to monetise some production regardless of any potential sale and plan to do this a lot earlier via a low tech Early Production System to deliver cash flows earlier. Also re the share price - not concerned on a day to day basis. Don't know who seller is and beieve it's not the note holders. Looking to get more institutions on board and one has bought some 4% of the stock in recent months (though haven't seen a holdings notice). One other thing of my own thoughts is that given the high porosity figures should be more oil relative to net pay versus it being low - average porsity hence earlier comments on size of net pay in the 2 discoveries so far. Also thomasthetanks 'Mirabaud' post (2589) post result, where they believe Amdigh could hold 20-40 mmbls of recoverable oil. Savp beleive Kunama same potential to Amdigh and also in the 93% sweet spot. Personally I was hoping for around 50 mmbls recoverable from the entire 3 well programme.
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note out today, please see below. Despite delivering a knock out success on its second Niger well, shares in Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) edged up just 4.8% yesterday to 32.5p by close of play. We find this surprising given the potential value that has been unlocked and the importance of the Amdigh-1 discovery for moving the project towards commercial viability. On a back of the envelope basis, we believe the find could hold between 20-40 mmbbls of recoverable oil – placing it towards the upper end of discoveries in the wider basin (typical discovery size is 1-50 mmbbls). On the basis that each barrel in the ground is worth ~US$4.5/bbl (at US$70/bbl Brent prices), this implies an unrisked valuation for the discovery of US$90-180m – equivalent to 7.5-15p – versus the share price move yesterday of less than two pence.
diversification: Today's share price reaction is probably an acknowledgement of the following statement from the admission document: 1.8 The Lock-Up Amendment Agreement provides SSN holders who are currently party to the Lock-Up Agreement with the ability to withdraw from the Lock-Up Agreement until 5.00p.m., 5 January 2018 The Lock-Up Amendment Agreement provides all SSN holders who are not signatory to it with the opportunity to withdraw their accession to the Lock-Up Agreement until 5.00 p.m on 5 January 2018. If an SSN holder withdraws their accession to the Lock-Up Agreement, they will no longer be bound by its terms. If one or more SSN holders choose to withdraw from the Lock-Up Agreement it could have an adverse impact on the timing and implementation of the Transaction. It is my opinion that as the transaction progresses through the milestones, the transaction becomes de-risked and the share price will move to reflect an improved chance of this transaction completing on time and on budget. I have no doubt that the assets to be purchased at distressed levels are not justified by the current share price.
zengas: As for the drilling in Niger, The last estimates by CGG came out around 2.2 billion bls of potentially recoverable oil on a risked basis (1.7 billion net). We know the company was after an up to $250m farmout figure for 30-50% giveaway. To get that size of farmout is/was likely in stages depending on the outcome of stage one before committing/releasing more capital to the next phase. On a success case i would still have seen Savp having to raise capital as they would not be carried indefintely beyond X number of wells or infrastructure spend if they had gotten to the successs case. True, if successful they could have gotten cash at a higher price but that's the risk and there's been a few that's been hammered this way - Look at Copl on it's Liberia well and farmin/carry by worlds biggest - Exxon. Well didn't come in and Copl had to come to the market for funds with little in its favour. Savp wanted to retain operatorship in Niger otherwise a new operator could work to their own designs. Maybe this was why a farmin was not forthcoming (maybe it still will) and we may never know but i don't consider it all to be just that straightforward and maybe Savp didn't want to give up too high a percentage. Very worst case was if Savp had say gotten carried for first phase of 3- 5 wells and the results were poor -bad and the farrminee didn't proceed to stage 2 or decide to do anything on stage 2 for another 12 months or so. This would have left Savp in a poor negotiating position as well as struggling for cash if early results had gone against them and unable to move on especially if not in control as operator. Investors who are crying foul now would be gone and looking for the next big play and leaving Savp to it's own devices. But management are right to look to securing and underpinning the company. Let's face it one of the biggest critics (on lse) has said Niger was worth 8p so if it could be driven down to 23p while waiting, one could assume it could go well below 23p if it had failed with nothing else to underpin it and result in as much dilution as there is now as it sought new funds. I don't see anyone who is currently critical, addressing this risk in their thinking. With this deal - i see the share price being underpinned and can grow from the Nigeria assets regardless. Although it's cost us dilution at the outset it's also derisked the company by generating cash flow and intended dividend. Niger is funded. There is ongoing cash flow from this deal not only for future funding but also to bid for/buy more assets. Savp remains in control of Niger and instead of giving up 30-50% - by this strategy they retain a risked recoverable of 500 - 850 mmbls that they would otherwise have signed away to a farminee .That's not to be sniffed at. It also means that with a bigger risked recoverable number to play for, we could get by on having a smaller success rate. Yes the big, big upside will be reduced if it had come in but so many companies get crippled by early poor results when nothing to fall back on. Some can say they were duped or conned as they allege til the cows come home but the bottom line imo is about derisking going forward and building a strong company. What if Niger delivers handsomely and they then farmout at a much bigger premium that they use to buy more production or other assets? That's why at this stage i don't close my mind to the overall potential or upside limitations as things evolve. Speculators and risk takers who may have bought or spreadbet for 1-3 well plays don't come into consideration when management are serious about trying to deliver over the longer term unfortunately.
Savannah Petrol share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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