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SAVP Savannah Petroleum Plc

8.90
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petroleum Plc LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 8.90 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
8.16 8.98
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 8.90 GBX

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Latest News

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Discussions and Chat

Savannah Petroleum Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
06/1/202117:52◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►5,650
07/4/202011:14Savannah Petroleum Plc823
25/9/201809:07Savannah Petrolium8

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Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 06/1/2021 17:52 by mount teide
It's not often that PI's get an opportunity to build a position in a high cash generating company like SAVE at a discount of up to 80% to the weighted average price of the group of blue chip Institutional Investors that have supported the placings to date.

Placings:
01-8-14 = $50m raised at 56p
10-7-15 = $36m at 38p
07-7-16 = $40m at 38p
22-12-17 = $125m at 35p
24-1-19 = $23m at 28p

$274m raised at an average of 39.1p

In 2021 with potential annual free cash flow of $140m from Nigeria(Finncap Note) some 30% of that could be returned as a dividend.

$42m at an exchange rate of £1/$1.35 is about 3.1p/share - 21% yield on the current share price - 10% yield on a share price of 31p or 5% yield on a share price of 62p (excluding any contribution from Niger.

AIMHO/DYOR
Posted at 17/4/2020 20:49 by zengas
My reply to Paul on LSE.

Paul I pressed on that issue and was told they were being paid and nothing else elaborated on re any payment delays or non payment. I have not heard of any guarantees called upon and we have 2 of them.

Bottom line is i'm led to believe that we are being paid but as i said previous i do not know or am privy to what the standard settlement/payment terms are for Savp.

I will add for anyone that follows things, some of the problems in the electricity sector is lack of gas supply and indeed payment issues from the Gencos. Gencos in turn were complaining that gas suppliers were demanding upfront payments.
A broker note went out mid March and there was no mention of any payment issues for Savp (whether they would be aware i don't know but surely would highlight it it was an issue).
It's interesting that Savp tweeted last week that they had actually increased gas supplies during the Covid-19 outbreak (tweet on the 13th).
Today the name change to Savannah Energy and a new website from Monday.
Today a Numis note tweeted by Savp as being out today but i haven't seen it and might be on that new website when unlocked monday. Surely Numis took some guidance from Savp as to the current state of play ??

If this is all coincidence and the reason for being quiet to date in delaying updates to resolve any outstanding issues i don't know - but the most important thing i've learned is that the Government has paid the Gencos over N200b (i think that's some £400m) to settle outstanding gas bills and resolve the problem.

Business & Economy: FG pays N200bn to offset Gencos’ gas bill
The Federal Government has in the past two to three days paid over N200bn for power supply in Nigeria, the Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Mele Kyari, declared on Wednesday.
When asked what government was doing to resolve the non-payment for gas by power generation companies, Kyari said, “Actually the Federal Government has made payments of over N200bn for power in the last two to three days.
The NNPC boss stated that the payment would adequately help in settling the indebtedness of power generation firms to gas companies.
Posted at 16/4/2020 10:53 by zengas
Well the share price has fallen from 35p to which we were told was a value enhancing deal for all shareholders and would underpin/derisk us through guaranteed gas revenues plus any new customers and less dependent on oil. My point is - how in the face of such share price destruction/performance can any further bonus be paid if the remuneration committee are reading this ? Also the $5m loan which was to be settled around 17th Jan 2020 was not mentioned again in any shape or form until 6th March and is extended to 6th June. If bonuses weren't handed out so quickly until the company actually delivers, there would have been less need for most of that $5m in the first place.

My comments then on 15th Jan 2020 in which the share price has fallen from 22p by a further 66% in that time to 7.5p and which can't all be blamed on the CV-19 outbreak. Therefore any blame attached to the CV-19 outbreak by the CEO/Chairman does not address the dire performance prior to this and the lack of delivery on past guidance.
AK: "Our focus in Niger in 2019 will be on testing the Amdigh-1 discovery, delivering first oil from our R3 East EPS, and commencing a further exploration programme in the second half of the year, potentially with a partner. We expect this process to be one that adds significant value for all of our stakeholders".

'Lets hope any bonuses under consideration if any for 2019 are suspended or cancelled and that the remuneration committee wake up to the fact that nothing has been delivered at any point since listing in terms of any growth for shareholders. Some of those dozy old compliant codgers should consider this fact when they're patting each other on the back about jobs supposedly well done and see that the company actions have repeatedly sent the share price south with every passing year.
Meanwhile let's see if the $5m short term loan is repaid in cash or by shares.
CEO Pay/bonuses
y/e 2014 paid $352k
y/e 2015 paid $671k
y/e 2016 paid $886k (of which $278k being his bonus)
Y/e 2017 paid $1.814m ($1.248m being the bonus)
y/e 2018 paid $2.1m ($1.4m bonus).
y/e 2019 to be announced
In 5 years (2014-18) including pension contributions he's earned $5.8m while the share price has been decimated
Unless he starts to get the share price up, deliver on promises and explain the dividend ambiguity then this progressive enrichment has to be nipped entirely in the bud and linked only to share price performance and every shareholder should make their feelings known about this to IR/JL/Remuneration committee and AK himself. It simply isn't good enough and has to be challenged. Going on 7 years and only 5 wells drilled in Niger - shameful.'
Pay cuts/ staff reductions should be on the cards if there has been no improvement in outlook.

(jotoha2 that's not for your benefit as you've contributed sweet FA since you graced the thread).
Posted at 19/2/2020 12:28 by canigou2
I don't have to look, I do not control the share price. The performance since the RTO is shown in the share price. It is the BOD's job to support the share price, by providing this information in a timely and clear manner, so the market understands without any ambiguities. They are not doing their job well. This needs to change!
Posted at 08/2/2020 11:20 by zengas
As i've said before i await to see the update for Niger and agree it's been painfully slow. What's keeping me in is that when they took the assets on, they've certainly been proved 100% correct on the high chance of success so i see no reason why this can't be magnified many times over given the close proximity and analogous nature of the prospects yet to drill.

I never expected to see every single one drilled and with a target of some 2.8 billion bls of already risked recoverable oil, i've felt that getting just 18% of that net to Savp at the lower $4 per/b estimate would be enough to create $2b worth of value for Savp especially with a major pipeline on the horizon as well as domestic supply.

On the other hand to get such a comprehensive and reworked improved Nigerian deal through with so many parties concerned imo was no mean feat. So i personally feel that deserves credit and if he/Savp can do that then imo there's hope for future and less complicated deals in continuing to grow the company. The first announcement of what i hope are many new customer deals has started to filter through already and they beleive the capacity of the gas processing facilities will be fully utilised by the end of the year.

As regards not having hands on O&G experience i'll agree but he certainly has a good team around him and they used the best legal entities (one sits on the board) in dd and he's also been able to bring on board many top blue chip investors/world bank arm etc to invest in Savp as against many CEOs who have that O&G hands on experience but don't bring in sufficient core investors. Two CEOs that didn't have an inch of hands on oil gas experience were Scots born Henry Cameron who led Sibir to a £2b takeover and the UKs Peter Levine who took Imperial Energy to a £1.4b takeover. Personally i'd judge the company as a whole and the people who are there and not base it solely on the CEO. Like the 2 other CEOs mentioned he has a major shareholding and if he does as well as them, then he could be in for a similar payoff incentive on his holding and every reason to get the share price to perform.
Posted at 31/1/2020 07:58 by thomasthetank1
All - please see below from Mirabaud this morning.

BST



Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced that Accugas, its Nigerian midstream arm, has entered into a fresh gas sales agreement (GSA) with a subsidiary of Sahara Group - owner of the 180MW Afam power plant in Rivers State. Sahara is a major independent energy and infrastructure conglomerate with annual revenue of >US$10bn. The agreement is part of a broader push by SAVP's to add high quality, investment grade customers and diversify its supply base.

The GSA envisages the supply of up to 35 mmscf/d (5.8 kboepd) of gas from the Uquo field to the Afam power plant, which is linked to Accugas infrastructure via the state-owned Nigerian Gas Company's (NGC) Ikot/Obigbo network. Importantly, as no incremental capex is required to supply the gas, first deliveries can be achieved in the relatively near-term - once Sahara has finalised tariff arrangements with NGC to move the gas over its pipeline network. The gas is being supplied on an "interruptible" basis, which means SAVP can tweak deliveries dependent on demand under its existing supply arrangements. Likewise, Afam has the option to take as much or as little gas as it wishes, dependent on plant utilisation (historically ~70%). The GSA is valid for an initial one-year term (extendible by mutual consent) and has the potential to be up-sized, following completion of a 180MW expansion project at Afam (now underway). This represents a major new incremental supply opportunity. SAVP notes that the GSA "augments the weighted average profitability of the Accugas portfolio", though the sales price is undisclosed for commercial reasons.

We estimate that the Afam gas contract could be worth around US$25m annually (in post-tax CF), assuming ~70% capacity utilisation and similar margins to SAVP's base integrated gas business. To put this in perspective, our group-level FY20 post-tax CF forecast currently stands at ~US$100m, based solely on existing contracts (141 mmscf/d of Take or Pay volumes, maintenance adjusted). Accordingly, today's news is materially accretive and demonstrates the value of layering in new gas contracts.
Posted at 18/1/2020 10:00 by zengas
I said a while back Savp could issue the shares simply because they have a lot of work to get on with and in a meaningful way.

Reasons - They have a 2 x $5m tranche = $10m available.
Why pay off the first one in cash when you could do this in shares and retain the cash and make use of the 2nd tranche later on and choose to pay it off in cash.

My reasons for them keeping the cash (at least the 1st $5m tranche) - Build up a sufficient cash pile and start the Niger drilling campaign/1st oil. How long are they really prepared to hold off for a partner ?

We know they got something like $74m cash inflow. (any deal outflow costs ?)
$15m cash on the books of the assets year end 2019.
$103m forecast cash this year from Nigeria (before new customers).
$50m facility from the oil trading group (1st tranche available is $20m).
There's a work programme to conduct this H1 for Nigeria so not sure if that's from the $103m cashflow or that cashflow is net after all expenditure.

I think they said it was circa a net $10m to first oil in Niger re the EPS via truck.
New drilling and seismic campaign in Niger.

Savp could perhaps see the short term funding as better in the bank to bolster its coffers with or without a Niger partner.

A share price of 25p/50p/100p on 994m shares reduces to 24.5p/49p/98p with an extra 20m shares issued. That's how they could view it as a small price to pay to keep this $5m, use the 2nd $5m tranche in due course but repay the 2nd one.

I could be wrong, but that's been my thinking this last number of months.
Posted at 15/1/2020 12:42 by zengas
CEO Pay/bonuses
y/e 2014 paid $352k
y/e 2015 paid $671k
y/e 2016 paid $886k (of which $278k being his bonus)
Y/e 2017 paid $1.814m ($1.248m being the bonus)
y/e 2018 paid $2.1m ($1.4m bonus).
y/e 2019 to be announced
In 5 years (2014-18) including pension contributions he's earned $5.8m and if 2019 comes in similar to the previous 2 years he'll have gotten circa $8m in 6 years while the share price has been decimated. Give him another 3 years and at the contuning rate of pay and bonus's he'll have done alright with $14m+, never mind how your big shareholding is doing.

Unless he starts to get the share price up, deliver on promises and explain the dividend ambiguity then this progressive enrichment has to be nipped entirely in the bud and linked only to share price performance and every shareholder should make their feelings known about this to IR/JL/Remuneration committee and AK himself. It simply isn't good enough and has to be challenged. Going on 7 years and only 5 wells drilled in Niger - shameful.

Malcy/Vox markets - next time you have him on, these are the questions you need to ask or don't have him on at all, period !
Posted at 25/11/2019 10:17 by thomasthetank1
Mirabaud note on SAVP.

Contrary to expectations, shares in Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) have struggled for ground (down 19%) since completing the Seven Energy transaction, opening up a potentially attractive entry point for investors, in our view. We note that the deal serves as an important valuation marker which is currently being overlooked by the market. As part of a partial sell-down in Nigeria, SAVP divested 20% of the Uquo gas field and Accugas midstream business to African infrastructure specialists AIIM for US$54m in cash. This implies a valuation net to SAVP’s residual 80% stake of US$270m (21.1p/shr) including the cash proceeds – firming underpinning the current share price (21.6p/shr). Notably, the sell down excludes SAVP’s interests in the Stubb Creek field (risked NAV 6p/shr) in Nigeria and of course its entire Niger portfolio (risked NAV 30p/shr), suggesting that, at the current price, these valuable assets are in for free.
Posted at 16/11/2019 14:38 by bushman1
The below an excellent post from the other bb :


Like yourself Agadem I am completely perplexed at yesterday's share price response to deal completion.

I am no expert on MM tricks and share price manipulation, but watching the trades over the last few weeks I have noticed on countless occasions very small A trades appearing after some decent buying occurs.

Multiple trades of less than 100 shares can drop the price by 2 or 3 %. Yesterday saw some good buying pressure but those A trades appeared again. Why is anyone's guess.

I wasn't expecting a huge immediate re rate, but I thought the mid 30s were a sound bet.

I myself brought in just before the 2018 drilling campaign started. I am astonished that I can now buy shares cheaper than i could back then.

When you consider since then we have had 5/5 successful drills in Niger. All drilled under budget and on schedule. We now have 2 routes to market from Niger. The CNPC pipe line deal opens up a massive export route for the company.

Since then the 7 deal was improved significantly, and has finally been completed.

Fundamentally SAVP has never been in better shape !

Highly cash flow positive Gas operations in Nigeria, with great potential for expansion support the company drilling a highly prolific basin in Niger which now has 2 routes to market.

The fundamentals now are excellent. And when the market wakes up, I expect a steady re rate to 35 - 45p.
Savannah Petroleum share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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