Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00p -2.94% 33.00p 24,303,576 15:56:24
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
32.80p 33.50p 33.60p 32.00p 33.50p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -20.26 -7.40 99.7

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Date Time Title Posts
15/10/201815:52◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►3,074
05/10/201810:48Savannah Petroleum Plc129
25/9/201810:07Savannah Petrolium8

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DateSubject
15/10/2018
09:20
Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 34p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 26p and a 12 week average price of 23.70p.
The 1 year high share price is 45p while the 1 year low share price is currently 23.70p.
There are currently 302,083,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,817,253 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £98,479,203.72.
06/10/2018
03:24
bushman1: ngms. AK and the BoD are taking a much longer term view. You are aware there's the Malcy evening on 16th October in London ? You are aware Andrew Knott is attending plus there will be a Q & A session afterwards ? As opposed to posting comments here based on your unwavering belief - 100 per cent fully entitled of course ngms - as to what ' could have been ' and what ' should have been ' then do attend please. You can ask AK directly his reasoning for SAVP's future strategy ? You can advise him why the share price would have been much higher if SAVP had only only focused on Niger ? I will write down everything said and post it here. Deal ?
05/10/2018
14:42
ngms27: So there we have it. Those of us who bought in for the Niger assets and drilling campaign have well and truly been shafted by Empire building and feathering ones own nest. This is another example of a lifestyle company not being run for the benefit of shareholders. This sector is awash with them. My reason for buying as above was Niger and the upcoming drilling where adjacent acreage in the same play fairway and yielded an 85% success case. We have now drilled 5 holes with a 100% success rate. Without the stupid empire building where would the share price be now? In my view somewhere above 150p and we would all have been happy. Instead we have ended up with no increase in share price, uncertainty over Nigeria and absolutely no idea of the discovered resource in Niger. I fail to see how the likes of Malcy and Zengas can continue to be positive on this company.
26/9/2018
10:25
zengas: There's 7 billion bls unrisked recoverable mid case in the Niger blocks ($35 billion worth of gross target value using $5/b). 2.8 billion bls risked = some $14 billion of value in the ground to transfer to the share price depending how much they can prove up or decide to farm out. Yesterday in the interview at 4:30 in, re Accugas network AK repeated that from a supply perspective there was 40 tcf of gas that could be tied in - that's a discovered resource of over 6.5 billion boe. If Accugas was doing 100,000 boepd it would only use 15% of that figure in 25 years. I could see from both Niger & Nigeria, Savp realistically attaining 1 billion boe of reserves based on 1) High COS in Niger and 2) the number of Nigerian fields looking to monetise those huge discovered gas resources. Given Savps holding in Accugas it would only be rational imo for Savp to pick up more reserves/JVs to supply some of that gas to Accugas. There would imo be a scramble from such a large number of discoveries to do a deal with Savp/Accugas in monetising some of that gas. With the gasification of the country Accugas in it's own right could be the big winner which we have 20% off fully carried (plus a low cost option for a further 10%). Our interest in Accugas alone could eventually be worth a lot more than the current share price.
26/9/2018
07:48
thomasthetank1: Hannam & Partners - Savannah Petroleum - Fast track to cash flow A bigger Savannah on the horizon Whilst waiting for the Seven Energy transaction to close, the market has grown impatient, leading Savannah to now trade at a ~64% discount to our risked NAV of 80p/sh. The underperformance has come despite material exploration success. Following Savannah’s drill bit success in Niger and progress on closing its now enlarged deal in Nigeria, we publish an updated set of forecasts including a new NAV and projected cash flows. We believe Savannah offers a combination of solid free cash flow generation funding cash returns to shareholders, growth from new developments and exploration upside. The Seven Energy assets should provide long-term, stable cash flow that create a basis to return capital to shareholders, whilst still pursuing a self-funded growth strategy. Seven Energy deal to close in Q4'18 underpinning our valuation Savannah has just announced an update on the Seven Energy Transaction and on operations at the Seven assets in South East Nigeria. It included two new sub deals that help the market understand the delay to completing the Transaction. Both deals simplify the Seven Energy ultimate structure while enhancing reserves and control. With this news Savannah can work towards the Implementation Agreement required prior to closing the Transaction in Q4 2018, which should act as a material catalyst. We believe the market is pricing a large discount on the closure of the Seven deal in Nigeria as we carry >40p/share of core value from Uquo, Stubb Creek and Accugas Midstream. Niger - 4/4 on exploration; production next year Savannah’s drilling programme in Niger has seen the successful drilling of four exploration wells in 2018, with early production expected in 2019. The fast track monetisation of the Niger discoveries should provide a second leg of cash flow (c.US$10m for every 1kb/d of production), in a country with a supportive Government and benign operating environment. Further exploration wells and seismic are also likely in 2019, as is the potential to bring in a partner (as per recent local press reports). We carry 26p/sh of risked value for Niger. Valuation: big discount to NAV and >20% FCF yield by 2020 The company is trading at 1/3 of our risked NAV of 80p/sh (NPV12 at US$70/bbl Brent flat) and a 33% discount to our core NAV. Overall, we see an undiscounted payback from the Seven Energy deal in around 3 years. SAVP is trading on relatively low cash flow multiples already in 2019 before substantial growth in earnings and cash flow in 2020 puts it on very low multiples (e.g. EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x in 2019, dropping to just 2x in 2020). We believe that stable cash flow from gas sales in Nigeria, notably underwritten by payment guarantees, including from the World Bank, will unlock material value in the share price. We estimate the Nigerian FCF generation of US$80mm in 2019 (supporting a dividend of US$12.5m and the Niger capex).
24/9/2018
15:40
bushman1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (im plying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
24/9/2018
13:10
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (implying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
14/9/2018
15:05
alamaison5: Until they test the well and prove that's it commercial the selling will carry on. Also, as we all know, there is a forced seller. If SAVP hit a duster you could see it fall by another 10% easy. Why buy know? Even a stick, and untested again, will have little effect on the share price...
08/8/2018
07:29
gmr64: Mirabaud note this morning: Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced this morning that it has secured backing from the Niger Government for an Early Production Scheme (EPS) in the Agadem basin. The company has signed a binding MoU with the Government providing a framework for the early development of oil recently discovered in the East R3 area. As part of the agreement, the Government will facilitate commercial arrangements for: (1) the sale of oil to the SORAZ (domestic) refinery in Zinder - jointly owned by CNPC (60%) and the Government (40%) - which has spare capacity of 5-7 kbopd, and (2) the use of CNPC's 463km domestic pipeline and processing facilities in the Agadem basin. Assuming implementation, this would allow Savannah to truck crude (up to 5-7 kbopd) 60km north to CNPC infrastructure where it would be processed and delivered by pipe to the refinery for a fee. Importantly, under this scheme, Savannah would look to lease much of the surface equipment (initially) - including wellhead facilities - meaning the capital costs involved would be limited to drilling and associated gathering (we estimate ~US$6-7m/well). In our opinion, the MoU is a clear statement of intent by the Nigerien Government that it is keen to support Savannah in establishing commercial sales as quickly as practicable. We note that the MoU includes a commitment by Savannah to submit a pre-feasibility study within 90 days, followed by a request for authorisation to commence production. Understandably, at this stage SAVP hasn’t committed to timescales to first oil, however, in our opinion it would not be impossible for the first sales before the end of the year (as part of the upcoming well testing campaign). We expect initial volumes to be modest (0.5-1 kbopd) with production ramping up to 5-7 kbopd over the medium term. Assuming a ~US$25/bbl net back (at $70/bbl), our back of the envelope calculation suggests that every 1 kbopd of output might add ~US$9m of annual post-tax CF at current prices. Today’s news has come faster than most could have expected, with the company only spudding its first well at the end of March this year. Since then it has recorded three discoveries out of three, with results from the fourth well due over the coming weeks. Despite this success, Savannah’s share price continues to languish, in our view due to the length of time that it is taking to close the Seven transaction in Nigeria. We have always maintained that the risks to completing the deal relate to timing rather than anything else, and it is encouraging to read in today’s RNS a brief comment that the transaction remains on track to complete this quarter. With Nigeria completion now in sight and Niger running ahead of expectations, we believe SAVP has all the ingredients for a material re-rate with the stock currently trading at a less than half our Total NAV (66p/shr).
15/6/2018
14:04
zengas: Some other points Nigeria assets -Gas Production capacity to increase from 200-400 mmcf/day. 22,000 boepd is take or pay so production figures not relevant right now - they get paid that amount regardless. Potential new customers are paying the equivalent of $11-$15/mcf for diesel whenever gas could be supplied at around $7.50 mcf (big mark up for Savp interest/Accugas and huge savings to customers v diesel). Looking to increase production 3 fold. Main focus is on Niger and Nigeria current assets. Did mention on the acquisition front "looking at other deals just now" though going back to previous very recent interviews these may be bolt on opps. Re Niger - Export Pipeline Savp have access to , would get a 12.5% return on that infrastructure investment (more likely to be the benefit to whatever partner Savp bring in). Normal drilling in the Sokor Alternances is 1-2 discoveries from 6 Eocene sequences E0-E5. Want to prove up as much oil as possible. Described as 'World Class' asset. Going back to earlier post regarding even the smallest discovery as an example - all can be commercialised. As i always beleived - drill as many structures as possible to tote up the numbers to as high as possible in terms of reserves/value and over 1 billion bl potential so far in the CPR. R1 wasn't drilled simply because more feasible to drill R3 nearest existing and planned infrastructure. Will be drilled. Govt had no problem in extending it as more reasonable to crack on with R3 from all view points and from what i interpreted it as an agreed strategy. R2 prospects are deeper and more costly to drill and what i heard will be drilled but only with a partner/rest relinquished. (R4 not mentioned in depth from what i recall but same priority as R3). Production via pipeline 2021 (circa 3 years). Plan was alsways to monetise some production regardless of any potential sale and plan to do this a lot earlier via a low tech Early Production System to deliver cash flows earlier. Also re the share price - not concerned on a day to day basis. Don't know who seller is and beieve it's not the note holders. Looking to get more institutions on board and one has bought some 4% of the stock in recent months (though haven't seen a holdings notice). One other thing of my own thoughts is that given the high porosity figures should be more oil relative to net pay versus it being low - average porsity hence earlier comments on size of net pay in the 2 discoveries so far. Also thomasthetanks 'Mirabaud' post (2589) post result, where they believe Amdigh could hold 20-40 mmbls of recoverable oil. Savp beleive Kunama same potential to Amdigh and also in the 93% sweet spot. Personally I was hoping for around 50 mmbls recoverable from the entire 3 well programme.
15/12/2017
10:13
zengas: As for the drilling in Niger, The last estimates by CGG came out around 2.2 billion bls of potentially recoverable oil on a risked basis (1.7 billion net). We know the company was after an up to $250m farmout figure for 30-50% giveaway. To get that size of farmout is/was likely in stages depending on the outcome of stage one before committing/releasing more capital to the next phase. On a success case i would still have seen Savp having to raise capital as they would not be carried indefintely beyond X number of wells or infrastructure spend if they had gotten to the successs case. True, if successful they could have gotten cash at a higher price but that's the risk and there's been a few that's been hammered this way - Look at Copl on it's Liberia well and farmin/carry by worlds biggest - Exxon. Well didn't come in and Copl had to come to the market for funds with little in its favour. Savp wanted to retain operatorship in Niger otherwise a new operator could work to their own designs. Maybe this was why a farmin was not forthcoming (maybe it still will) and we may never know but i don't consider it all to be just that straightforward and maybe Savp didn't want to give up too high a percentage. Very worst case was if Savp had say gotten carried for first phase of 3- 5 wells and the results were poor -bad and the farrminee didn't proceed to stage 2 or decide to do anything on stage 2 for another 12 months or so. This would have left Savp in a poor negotiating position as well as struggling for cash if early results had gone against them and unable to move on especially if not in control as operator. Investors who are crying foul now would be gone and looking for the next big play and leaving Savp to it's own devices. But management are right to look to securing and underpinning the company. Let's face it one of the biggest critics (on lse) has said Niger was worth 8p so if it could be driven down to 23p while waiting, one could assume it could go well below 23p if it had failed with nothing else to underpin it and result in as much dilution as there is now as it sought new funds. I don't see anyone who is currently critical, addressing this risk in their thinking. With this deal - i see the share price being underpinned and can grow from the Nigeria assets regardless. Although it's cost us dilution at the outset it's also derisked the company by generating cash flow and intended dividend. Niger is funded. There is ongoing cash flow from this deal not only for future funding but also to bid for/buy more assets. Savp remains in control of Niger and instead of giving up 30-50% - by this strategy they retain a risked recoverable of 500 - 850 mmbls that they would otherwise have signed away to a farminee .That's not to be sniffed at. It also means that with a bigger risked recoverable number to play for, we could get by on having a smaller success rate. Yes the big, big upside will be reduced if it had come in but so many companies get crippled by early poor results when nothing to fall back on. Some can say they were duped or conned as they allege til the cows come home but the bottom line imo is about derisking going forward and building a strong company. What if Niger delivers handsomely and they then farmout at a much bigger premium that they use to buy more production or other assets? That's why at this stage i don't close my mind to the overall potential or upside limitations as things evolve. Speculators and risk takers who may have bought or spreadbet for 1-3 well plays don't come into consideration when management are serious about trying to deliver over the longer term unfortunately.
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