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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 30.00p 0 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
30.10p 32.00p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -20.26 -7.40 90.6

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Date Time Title Posts
18/1/201911:15Savannah Petroleum Plc218
11/1/201908:41◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►3,216
25/9/201809:07Savannah Petrolium8

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DateSubject
22/1/2019
08:20
Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 30p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 26p and a 12 week average price of 23.30p.
The 1 year high share price is 35p while the 1 year low share price is currently 23.30p.
There are currently 302,083,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,388,583 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £90,625,034.10.
11/1/2019
08:41
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud - Savannah Petroleum GETTING MORE FOR LESS Following news in December of further positive changes to the Seven Energy transaction we are upgrading numbers on SAVP. Our EBITDA estimates for FY19 & FY20 rise 79% & 81%, respectively, to US$173m & US308m, reflecting SAVP’s enlarged 75% share of cash flows and full consolidation of Seven into SAVP’s financial accounts. In parallel, under the revised structure, our Total NAV increases 24% to 89p/shr, suggesting fair value approaching 3x the current share price. With the Seven deal now in final form and expected to close this quarter, in our opinion, the scene is set for a material re-rating in the near-term. Accordingly, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a refreshed target price of 89p/shr – up from 72p/shr previously. Revised terms deliver control of infrastructure and equity alignment: through a series of deal modifications agreed with PE partner African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM) SAVP has recast the terms of the Seven Energy acquisition. The revised structure will see SAVP acquire an incremental 55% of Accugas and in parallel divest 25% of the Uquo gas field, resulting in SAVP owning 75% of Seven’s midstream (Accugas) and upstream (Uquo gas) units, and AIIM the remaining 25%. Through increased ownership of Accugas (20% to 75%), SAVP gains control of a key piece of regional infrastructure which acts as the gateway to energy hungry gas customers in southeast Nigeria (see Accugas’s pipeline network in map in Figure 4, below). In our view, this is key to capturing the longer term growth opportunity around consolidating stranded gas resources (estimated at >40 tcf in the wider area), tapping into new regional power stations (such as Alaoji) and supplying high-paying industrial customers (currently burning diesel for an equivalent cost of >US$10/mcf – versus Accugas’s current weighted average sales price of US$3.5/mcf). Furthermore, equity alignment across Seven’s integrated gas business ensures the wider operation can be run as efficiently as possible. AIIM cash consideration boosts liquidity and supports our wider valuation case: in consideration for its 25% stake in Seven’s Uquo and Accugas assets, AIIM has agreed to pay SAVP US$70m in cash on deal completion. This provides SAVP with a fresh source of liquidity coming out of the deal, bolstering the group’s finances and providing growth capital for Nigeria and/or Niger. Furthermore, by paying US$70m for 25%, AIIM has in effect franked the value of SAVP’s Accugas and Uquo stakes at US$280m/21p (including US$70m of cash receipts). This compares to SAVP’s current share price of 31.5p – implying little value for the Stubb Creek field (in Nigeria) or the potential in Niger. To put this in perspective, our aggregate NAV for the Niger portfolio and Stubb Creek field stands at 36p risked.
04/1/2019
10:29
zengas: hm First of all, I didn't say 'is'. Target 250p as explained on these threads before ($11b-$17billion of risked 2.8 billion barrel recoverable oil in the ground for Niger side of business alone) - have believed in the potential since day one and have seen 100% drilling success rate so far which is highly repeatable and much of it low risk from a 6 billion+ barrel of unrisked mid case recoverable). I see what the institutions see and all other serious types do re an investment - a company that should deliver significant capital growth and dividends as a bonus (though not why I invested re divs). As for the current share price - it was posed before at IEC when it was 25p and someone was quizzed why they thought it should be 100p 'now' then 1250p 3 years later. Cove at 25p down to 17p - then 240p following 24 months. Patience, research etc as before.
01/1/2019
11:55
zengas: Happy new year Div and all Savp followers. My view is, if 950m shares in issue post warrant expiry. Having a 250p target share price is about £2.375b ($3.2b) m/cap target. Generating target $200m annual free cash flows with future visibility beyond that as production increases. Maiden $12.5m div promised. If £500m/$650m attributed for 75% Accugas unit (balance of m/cap =£1.875b/$2.55b). Current 185 mmboe 2P/2C. Based on $2.90/boe farm out of Uquo x 75 mmboe and $4/b for Niger oil (company using $6/b) and 52 mmbls net currently = $425m (balance of m/cap = $2.1b). Up to 500 mmbls discoveries at $4/b part from Niger and part from Nigeria 2C conversion to 2P to make up balance of m/cap. (If the company attain $5-$6/b that's 330 - 400 mmbls needed imo). 500 mmbls is less than 20% of mid case Niger risked 2.8 billion bls recoverable. Also known that there is circa of 1b bls recoverable risked in the Sokor alternances alone at up to 93% high COS (100% success rate so far). Mid case is 6.9 billion bls recoverable unrisked with a risked recoverable of 2.82 billion bls. That's $11-$17 billion of 'risked' oil value in the ground at $4 - $6 per barrel. Imo we need about $2 billion of that to justify 250p target which in the pre Christmas interview was described as "a very large asset, very low risk. See a lot of growth through the drill bit and expanding that resource base out". High case is 10.32 billion bls unrisked with 4.2 billion bls risked recoverable. Also likely to buy stranded gas assets cheaply to run into Accugas network thus increasing valuation (from a pool of 40 TCF ie 6 billion boe of discoveries and 2C). With Accugas being the only major outlet in proximity to monetise the gas, i can see them adding a few hundred million boe at some point. On a future 250p target and 3% dividend ie 7.5p/10c per share = $95m worth of dividends which is about 30% of a future $300m free cash or under 40% of free annual cash flow at $250m/yr. If the warrants are exercised it will give the company significant additional cash - up to $58m. The warrants at 35p offer exceptional potential for appreciation while also benefitting from strong dividend potential - something for the institutions to ponder this month in the run up to Feb 8th.
23/12/2018
12:48
zengas: Re Fridays RNS and the $70m cash payment to Savp ($54m + $16m) by Africa Investment Managers. It's through the sale of an interest in Uquo to AIIM and not a placing of shares to them in Savp plc which i miss read. I was working on the basis of last Decembers deal document which would have seen circa 1145m shares in issue including warrants. Currently 817m shares in issue. Six and a half weeks left for 133m instituional warrants to expire at 35p exercise price. Warrants would generate £46.5m/$58.5m (£1/$1.26) and equal 950m shares in issue some 200m less than the 1145m originally envisaged. If bulk of those warrants not taken up would mean we are still around the 817m shares in issue. Transaction closure would see $115m/yr this current year 2019 from Nigeria ie almost $10m month free cash flow (not counting early production scheme from Niger Q2/19). Nigeria free cash flow to $153m/yr in 12+ months time = almost $13m/month + Niger at 4-5 X increase. $70m of near immediate cash ($54m+$16m) re 25% Uquo sale to AIIM. $50m draw down facility available from Geneva based funder. $10m monthly free cash from Nigeria. Warrants = more cash but more shares if exercised (ie upside of circa max $58.5m additional cash + 133m shares = 950m total shares). So going forward = about $120m of cash + $10m/month ie $240m free cash over the next 12 months and surely enough to put a huge future dent in Niger drilling. This is without any allowance of any Niger farmout, or Niger production or warrant exercise. Given the Niger target of 2.8 billion bls risked recoverable @ $4/b in the ground, a success on under 20% of that - ie 500m bls would mean a share price target for Niger alone of 188p (817m shares) or 162p (950m shares) using an exchange rate of £1 = US$1.30. The company is using a figure of $6/barrel (I've used $4/b) so those share price targets could be 25% more at $5/b and 50% more at $6/b . Even with a farmout there is some serious headroom for success based on the 2.8 billion barrel risked number (The unrisked numbers being much higher). Also where else do you get exploration potential with 80% COS (100% so far). The Nigeria business of both up and downstream should be worth 100p in its own right as it evolves, given the cash flow, reserves, distribution business etc and cost for any competitor to develop a similar foot print. Previously i was using 200p combined for moderate success, so now beleive 250p is more realistic considering all of the factors above. During these renegotiations, we've seen institutions adding (where the sales came from is anyones guess - forward selling of some minorities/parties to the transaction?). It's also one of the most heavily invested companies by a wide range of institutions. Once the transaction is concluded, hopefully the potential will transform into a future 10 bag opportunity and it's certainly got the forward cash and assets to do so as well as the promise of a $12.5m 2019 dividend, which should be even better on less shares in issue and favouable exchange rate.
06/10/2018
02:24
bushman1: ngms. AK and the BoD are taking a much longer term view. You are aware there's the Malcy evening on 16th October in London ? You are aware Andrew Knott is attending plus there will be a Q & A session afterwards ? As opposed to posting comments here based on your unwavering belief - 100 per cent fully entitled of course ngms - as to what ' could have been ' and what ' should have been ' then do attend please. You can ask AK directly his reasoning for SAVP's future strategy ? You can advise him why the share price would have been much higher if SAVP had only only focused on Niger ? I will write down everything said and post it here. Deal ?
05/10/2018
13:42
ngms27: So there we have it. Those of us who bought in for the Niger assets and drilling campaign have well and truly been shafted by Empire building and feathering ones own nest. This is another example of a lifestyle company not being run for the benefit of shareholders. This sector is awash with them. My reason for buying as above was Niger and the upcoming drilling where adjacent acreage in the same play fairway and yielded an 85% success case. We have now drilled 5 holes with a 100% success rate. Without the stupid empire building where would the share price be now? In my view somewhere above 150p and we would all have been happy. Instead we have ended up with no increase in share price, uncertainty over Nigeria and absolutely no idea of the discovered resource in Niger. I fail to see how the likes of Malcy and Zengas can continue to be positive on this company.
26/9/2018
09:25
zengas: There's 7 billion bls unrisked recoverable mid case in the Niger blocks ($35 billion worth of gross target value using $5/b). 2.8 billion bls risked = some $14 billion of value in the ground to transfer to the share price depending how much they can prove up or decide to farm out. Yesterday in the interview at 4:30 in, re Accugas network AK repeated that from a supply perspective there was 40 tcf of gas that could be tied in - that's a discovered resource of over 6.5 billion boe. If Accugas was doing 100,000 boepd it would only use 15% of that figure in 25 years. I could see from both Niger & Nigeria, Savp realistically attaining 1 billion boe of reserves based on 1) High COS in Niger and 2) the number of Nigerian fields looking to monetise those huge discovered gas resources. Given Savps holding in Accugas it would only be rational imo for Savp to pick up more reserves/JVs to supply some of that gas to Accugas. There would imo be a scramble from such a large number of discoveries to do a deal with Savp/Accugas in monetising some of that gas. With the gasification of the country Accugas in it's own right could be the big winner which we have 20% off fully carried (plus a low cost option for a further 10%). Our interest in Accugas alone could eventually be worth a lot more than the current share price.
24/9/2018
14:40
bushman1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (im plying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
24/9/2018
12:10
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note on SAVP below: Following an extended completion process, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) is now on the cusp of closing the transformational Seven Energy acquisition, with the group’s latest timetable indicating Q4 2018. As this key milestone approaches, we take a fresh look at the enlarged business, reviewing both the potential of the acquired integrated gas portfolio in Nigeria and recent drill-bit success in neighbouring Niger. Our conclusion is that SAVP’s portfolio offers a differentiated and scalable cash flow base with material resource growth potential, whilst ‎the shares look attractively valued on both DCF and earnings metrics. As such, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an upgraded 72p target price (vs. 66p/shr) – offering 157% upside at current levels. Solid cash flow base: we expect the base Nigerian business to contribute 26 kboepd of sales and US$65m of post-tax CF in FY19, rising to 32 kboepd and US$98m in FY21 (see Base Nigeria cash flows in Figure 2, below). This material step-up is driven by two factors: (1) the ramp up in Uquo field gas sales to full ‘daily contract quantity’ (DCQ) volumes in 2020, and (2) an in-built price inflator of ~6% per annum across existing gas contracts. Given modest future capex requirements, we expect the Nigeria base to generate cumulative FCF of ~US$177m over FY19-21, underpinning SAVP’s intention to become a dividend payer (maiden dividend of US$12.5m expected to be paid in Q1 2019, implies yield of 4.2%). Exploiting local gas market opportunity: we see significant potential value in connecting ‘last mile’ industrial customers to Accugas’s existing pipeline network, which transports Uquo gas to market. Typically, these customers are burning diesel for power at an equivalent price of ~US$15/mcf, compared with Accugas’s current average realised price of US$3.5/mcf (US$1.8/mcf of which flows to the upstream). In the event that new gas contracts are inked at a premium to US$3.5/mcf, the difference is split 50:50 between the midstream and upstream. Already, Accugas has secured heads of terms to supply 5 mmscf/d at prices of ~US$7.5/mcf (implying an enhanced upstream price of US$3.8/mcf), prompting the start of work on a new 18km pipeline spur with 20 mmscf/d of capacity (the Calabar Gas Development Project). We expect this to provide a key new revenue stream, contributing post-tax CF of US$4m in FY20 (5 mmscf/d of sales) and US$13m in FY21 (15 mmscf/d). Longer term, leveraging off its dominant gas infrastructure position (only significant gas processing and transportation system in southeast Nigeria), Savannah is also well placed to tap new upstream opportunities at low cost in the surrounding area, where were is an estimated 40 tcf of discovered undeveloped gas resources. Creating value through the drill-bit: the economics of SAVP’s Niger business are highly compelling, with basin-wide finding costs of less than US$1 per barrel and an NPV12% of US$5.2 per barrel in the ground at US$70/bbl oil (NPV10% of US$5.9 per barrel). Thus far, the company has drilled four successful wells (out of four) in the R3 East area, with estimated discovered resources in the range of 40-60 mmbbls (worth 12p/shr risked). Looking ahead, the company is currently drilling its fifth exploration well (Zomo-1) and it has a further four optional rig slots remaining, to be used for a mix of E&A and development drilling. We see considerable remaining exploration potential in the basin, noting that the R3 East area accounts for less than 10% of SAVP’s overall land bank. Conservatively, our valuation ascribes 125 mmbbls of unrisked resources to a further ten exploration wells (worth 14p/shr risked) across three high graded areas – R3 East, R3 Central and R1 South. Early production and cash flows: SAVP has secured Government backing for an early production system with the potential to deliver cash flows from Niger in H1 2019, just 12 months after the first well. The initial development concept is based on leasing surface facilities to keep capital costs low and trucking crude 120km north to CNPC’s domestic pipeline for onward sale at the Zinder refinery. We forecast 2 kbopd of production and US$11m of post-tax CF in FY19, ramping up to 5 kbopd and US$55m in FY21. Looking further out, following a bilateral agreement between Niger and Nigeria, plans are being prepared to build a major Agadem export pipeline to a new refinery in northern Nigeria which should unlock the wider basin from 2021 onwards. Several alternative pipeline options (via Chad and Benin) are also being worked up, providing multiple possible outlets (CNPC is expected to finish pre-feasibility studies on the pipeline routes by Q4 2018). Potential partial monetisation: in our opinion, SAVP’s 100% exploration success rate in Niger and the prospect of early cash flows has increased the pool of potential industry partners and the likelihood of a farm-out transaction. Whilst SAVP has the flexibility to move Niger forward on its own, utilising internally generated cash flows (from Nigeria), a farm-out deal would expedite exploration and production, bringing forward resource additions and cash flow and thus enhancing shareholder value. In our minds, the most likely potential partners are the major NOCs which have underinvested during the down-cycle and are now hungry to replenish reserves. Material discount to fair value: Using a 12% discount rate and a flat oil price of US$70/bbl, we calculate a Total NAV for SAVP of 72p/shr – up marginally from our previous 66p/shr figure. To illustrate the value on offer, our NAV of either one of SAVP’s businesses underpins the current share price (28p/shr), with Nigeria (2P + 2C) contributing 45p/shr risked (including corporate items) and Niger 27p/shr risked. Meanwhile, on an earnings basis the stock also looks attractively valued, trading on an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x FY19 falling to 1.2x FY21. Given continued progress on the Seven Energy transaction, and our confidence that the deal will complete before the year-end, we believe SAVP’s current discount to fair value represents a compelling entry point for investors.
08/8/2018
06:29
gmr64: Mirabaud note this morning: Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced this morning that it has secured backing from the Niger Government for an Early Production Scheme (EPS) in the Agadem basin. The company has signed a binding MoU with the Government providing a framework for the early development of oil recently discovered in the East R3 area. As part of the agreement, the Government will facilitate commercial arrangements for: (1) the sale of oil to the SORAZ (domestic) refinery in Zinder - jointly owned by CNPC (60%) and the Government (40%) - which has spare capacity of 5-7 kbopd, and (2) the use of CNPC's 463km domestic pipeline and processing facilities in the Agadem basin. Assuming implementation, this would allow Savannah to truck crude (up to 5-7 kbopd) 60km north to CNPC infrastructure where it would be processed and delivered by pipe to the refinery for a fee. Importantly, under this scheme, Savannah would look to lease much of the surface equipment (initially) - including wellhead facilities - meaning the capital costs involved would be limited to drilling and associated gathering (we estimate ~US$6-7m/well). In our opinion, the MoU is a clear statement of intent by the Nigerien Government that it is keen to support Savannah in establishing commercial sales as quickly as practicable. We note that the MoU includes a commitment by Savannah to submit a pre-feasibility study within 90 days, followed by a request for authorisation to commence production. Understandably, at this stage SAVP hasn’t committed to timescales to first oil, however, in our opinion it would not be impossible for the first sales before the end of the year (as part of the upcoming well testing campaign). We expect initial volumes to be modest (0.5-1 kbopd) with production ramping up to 5-7 kbopd over the medium term. Assuming a ~US$25/bbl net back (at $70/bbl), our back of the envelope calculation suggests that every 1 kbopd of output might add ~US$9m of annual post-tax CF at current prices. Today’s news has come faster than most could have expected, with the company only spudding its first well at the end of March this year. Since then it has recorded three discoveries out of three, with results from the fourth well due over the coming weeks. Despite this success, Savannah’s share price continues to languish, in our view due to the length of time that it is taking to close the Seven transaction in Nigeria. We have always maintained that the risks to completing the deal relate to timing rather than anything else, and it is encouraging to read in today’s RNS a brief comment that the transaction remains on track to complete this quarter. With Nigeria completion now in sight and Niger running ahead of expectations, we believe SAVP has all the ingredients for a material re-rate with the stock currently trading at a less than half our Total NAV (66p/shr).
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