Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50p -1.95% 25.20p 1,500,957 16:35:17
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
25.00p 25.20p 25.50p 25.00p 25.20p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -20.26 -7.40 76.1

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Date Time Title Posts
16/8/201817:44◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►2,866
08/8/201809:00Savannah Petrolium4

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Savannah Petrol (SAVP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2018-08-16 16:09:0825.2010,0002,520.00O
2018-08-16 15:51:5625.4540,00010,179.33O
2018-08-16 15:35:1725.202,500630.00UT
2018-08-16 15:27:4925.1030,0007,530.00O
2018-08-16 15:26:4525.1530,0007,544.70O
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Savannah Petrol (SAVP) Top Chat Posts

Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 25.70p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 25p and a 12 week average price of 25p.
The 1 year high share price is 45p while the 1 year low share price is currently 25p.
There are currently 302,083,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,138,031 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £76,125,028.64.
honestmarty: Selling off as predicted. Clearly Andrew has created a monster from the stinking corpse that was 7E. Gingenstein is its name, and it is a frightening monster let loose upon the earth. I feel a mighty flush on the share price is coming.
divmad: Zengas, I don't know but if they are thinking of putting up that extra $60mn investment soon in the back of excellent progress in Niger, I doubt if they would be happy paying the 35p per share price agreed back in December. I suspect they are holding back, like others, until the 7E deal is completed.
gmr64: Mirabaud note this morning: Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced this morning that it has secured backing from the Niger Government for an Early Production Scheme (EPS) in the Agadem basin. The company has signed a binding MoU with the Government providing a framework for the early development of oil recently discovered in the East R3 area. As part of the agreement, the Government will facilitate commercial arrangements for: (1) the sale of oil to the SORAZ (domestic) refinery in Zinder - jointly owned by CNPC (60%) and the Government (40%) - which has spare capacity of 5-7 kbopd, and (2) the use of CNPC's 463km domestic pipeline and processing facilities in the Agadem basin. Assuming implementation, this would allow Savannah to truck crude (up to 5-7 kbopd) 60km north to CNPC infrastructure where it would be processed and delivered by pipe to the refinery for a fee. Importantly, under this scheme, Savannah would look to lease much of the surface equipment (initially) - including wellhead facilities - meaning the capital costs involved would be limited to drilling and associated gathering (we estimate ~US$6-7m/well). In our opinion, the MoU is a clear statement of intent by the Nigerien Government that it is keen to support Savannah in establishing commercial sales as quickly as practicable. We note that the MoU includes a commitment by Savannah to submit a pre-feasibility study within 90 days, followed by a request for authorisation to commence production. Understandably, at this stage SAVP hasn’t committed to timescales to first oil, however, in our opinion it would not be impossible for the first sales before the end of the year (as part of the upcoming well testing campaign). We expect initial volumes to be modest (0.5-1 kbopd) with production ramping up to 5-7 kbopd over the medium term. Assuming a ~US$25/bbl net back (at $70/bbl), our back of the envelope calculation suggests that every 1 kbopd of output might add ~US$9m of annual post-tax CF at current prices. Today’s news has come faster than most could have expected, with the company only spudding its first well at the end of March this year. Since then it has recorded three discoveries out of three, with results from the fourth well due over the coming weeks. Despite this success, Savannah’s share price continues to languish, in our view due to the length of time that it is taking to close the Seven transaction in Nigeria. We have always maintained that the risks to completing the deal relate to timing rather than anything else, and it is encouraging to read in today’s RNS a brief comment that the transaction remains on track to complete this quarter. With Nigeria completion now in sight and Niger running ahead of expectations, we believe SAVP has all the ingredients for a material re-rate with the stock currently trading at a less than half our Total NAV (66p/shr).
gisjob2: Honestmarty. Think you need to change you name. Temporary drop in production due to maintenance which always happens. No failure of RTO just a understandable delay on deal of this nature. There's always conditions to dividends which personally I don't like anyway (invest in the business until later) Drilling in Niger will look after itself and has been highly successful to date. There was never any drilling promised in Nigeria Gas prices in Nigeria has risen so good news! The market not seeing it as negative as you. So absolutely no frightening news whatsoever. Share dealing in oil and gas stocks really not for you if you worry so much about Share price. Particularly when you don't hold.
zengas: Some other points Nigeria assets -Gas Production capacity to increase from 200-400 mmcf/day. 22,000 boepd is take or pay so production figures not relevant right now - they get paid that amount regardless. Potential new customers are paying the equivalent of $11-$15/mcf for diesel whenever gas could be supplied at around $7.50 mcf (big mark up for Savp interest/Accugas and huge savings to customers v diesel). Looking to increase production 3 fold. Main focus is on Niger and Nigeria current assets. Did mention on the acquisition front "looking at other deals just now" though going back to previous very recent interviews these may be bolt on opps. Re Niger - Export Pipeline Savp have access to , would get a 12.5% return on that infrastructure investment (more likely to be the benefit to whatever partner Savp bring in). Normal drilling in the Sokor Alternances is 1-2 discoveries from 6 Eocene sequences E0-E5. Want to prove up as much oil as possible. Described as 'World Class' asset. Going back to earlier post regarding even the smallest discovery as an example - all can be commercialised. As i always beleived - drill as many structures as possible to tote up the numbers to as high as possible in terms of reserves/value and over 1 billion bl potential so far in the CPR. R1 wasn't drilled simply because more feasible to drill R3 nearest existing and planned infrastructure. Will be drilled. Govt had no problem in extending it as more reasonable to crack on with R3 from all view points and from what i interpreted it as an agreed strategy. R2 prospects are deeper and more costly to drill and what i heard will be drilled but only with a partner/rest relinquished. (R4 not mentioned in depth from what i recall but same priority as R3). Production via pipeline 2021 (circa 3 years). Plan was alsways to monetise some production regardless of any potential sale and plan to do this a lot earlier via a low tech Early Production System to deliver cash flows earlier. Also re the share price - not concerned on a day to day basis. Don't know who seller is and beieve it's not the note holders. Looking to get more institutions on board and one has bought some 4% of the stock in recent months (though haven't seen a holdings notice). One other thing of my own thoughts is that given the high porosity figures should be more oil relative to net pay versus it being low - average porsity hence earlier comments on size of net pay in the 2 discoveries so far. Also thomasthetanks 'Mirabaud' post (2589) post result, where they believe Amdigh could hold 20-40 mmbls of recoverable oil. Savp beleive Kunama same potential to Amdigh and also in the 93% sweet spot. Personally I was hoping for around 50 mmbls recoverable from the entire 3 well programme.
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud note out today, please see below. Despite delivering a knock out success on its second Niger well, shares in Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) edged up just 4.8% yesterday to 32.5p by close of play. We find this surprising given the potential value that has been unlocked and the importance of the Amdigh-1 discovery for moving the project towards commercial viability. On a back of the envelope basis, we believe the find could hold between 20-40 mmbbls of recoverable oil – placing it towards the upper end of discoveries in the wider basin (typical discovery size is 1-50 mmbbls). On the basis that each barrel in the ground is worth ~US$4.5/bbl (at US$70/bbl Brent prices), this implies an unrisked valuation for the discovery of US$90-180m – equivalent to 7.5-15p – versus the share price move yesterday of less than two pence.
diversification: Today's share price reaction is probably an acknowledgement of the following statement from the admission document: 1.8 The Lock-Up Amendment Agreement provides SSN holders who are currently party to the Lock-Up Agreement with the ability to withdraw from the Lock-Up Agreement until 5.00p.m., 5 January 2018 The Lock-Up Amendment Agreement provides all SSN holders who are not signatory to it with the opportunity to withdraw their accession to the Lock-Up Agreement until 5.00 p.m on 5 January 2018. If an SSN holder withdraws their accession to the Lock-Up Agreement, they will no longer be bound by its terms. If one or more SSN holders choose to withdraw from the Lock-Up Agreement it could have an adverse impact on the timing and implementation of the Transaction. It is my opinion that as the transaction progresses through the milestones, the transaction becomes de-risked and the share price will move to reflect an improved chance of this transaction completing on time and on budget. I have no doubt that the assets to be purchased at distressed levels are not justified by the current share price.
zengas: As for the drilling in Niger, The last estimates by CGG came out around 2.2 billion bls of potentially recoverable oil on a risked basis (1.7 billion net). We know the company was after an up to $250m farmout figure for 30-50% giveaway. To get that size of farmout is/was likely in stages depending on the outcome of stage one before committing/releasing more capital to the next phase. On a success case i would still have seen Savp having to raise capital as they would not be carried indefintely beyond X number of wells or infrastructure spend if they had gotten to the successs case. True, if successful they could have gotten cash at a higher price but that's the risk and there's been a few that's been hammered this way - Look at Copl on it's Liberia well and farmin/carry by worlds biggest - Exxon. Well didn't come in and Copl had to come to the market for funds with little in its favour. Savp wanted to retain operatorship in Niger otherwise a new operator could work to their own designs. Maybe this was why a farmin was not forthcoming (maybe it still will) and we may never know but i don't consider it all to be just that straightforward and maybe Savp didn't want to give up too high a percentage. Very worst case was if Savp had say gotten carried for first phase of 3- 5 wells and the results were poor -bad and the farrminee didn't proceed to stage 2 or decide to do anything on stage 2 for another 12 months or so. This would have left Savp in a poor negotiating position as well as struggling for cash if early results had gone against them and unable to move on especially if not in control as operator. Investors who are crying foul now would be gone and looking for the next big play and leaving Savp to it's own devices. But management are right to look to securing and underpinning the company. Let's face it one of the biggest critics (on lse) has said Niger was worth 8p so if it could be driven down to 23p while waiting, one could assume it could go well below 23p if it had failed with nothing else to underpin it and result in as much dilution as there is now as it sought new funds. I don't see anyone who is currently critical, addressing this risk in their thinking. With this deal - i see the share price being underpinned and can grow from the Nigeria assets regardless. Although it's cost us dilution at the outset it's also derisked the company by generating cash flow and intended dividend. Niger is funded. There is ongoing cash flow from this deal not only for future funding but also to bid for/buy more assets. Savp remains in control of Niger and instead of giving up 30-50% - by this strategy they retain a risked recoverable of 500 - 850 mmbls that they would otherwise have signed away to a farminee .That's not to be sniffed at. It also means that with a bigger risked recoverable number to play for, we could get by on having a smaller success rate. Yes the big, big upside will be reduced if it had come in but so many companies get crippled by early poor results when nothing to fall back on. Some can say they were duped or conned as they allege til the cows come home but the bottom line imo is about derisking going forward and building a strong company. What if Niger delivers handsomely and they then farmout at a much bigger premium that they use to buy more production or other assets? That's why at this stage i don't close my mind to the overall potential or upside limitations as things evolve. Speculators and risk takers who may have bought or spreadbet for 1-3 well plays don't come into consideration when management are serious about trying to deliver over the longer term unfortunately.
taudelta1: Zen, good post and I follow your logic but not sure why you choose 80p for the price the placing "could get away at". Why not 60p, why not 100p, you haven't said. We know, and you have clearly stated, how much is being raised. Now if the price is 80p, you have said 325 min new shares will be needed; therefore if the price is 40p, 650 mln shares will be needed. We just need to establish what the price will be. The answer is that it will be the valuation placed on the existing Niger assets divided by the number of existing shares. On 8 June the market consensus for that figure was 34.625p. What has changed since then.. nothing has changed in Niger, there has been no drilling, no change of government etc .. but the POO has changed. As the shares are suspended there is no transparently visible market consensus for the share price but the co can talk to IIs, advisers etc and then it will have to think out the placing price. The placing price will therefore simply be SAVP's assessment of the value of those Niger assets (adjusted to reflect risk and give investors a return), divided by the no. of existing shares to give a per share figure. Dividing this placing price into the amount of money being raised will determine the number of new shares.
dalesman: It’s been a while since I updated my Savannah Petroleum spreadsheets. A lot has happened in the interval, including a rapidly falling oil price and a downgrading of the long-term oil price assumption. As with most oil shares the share price has fallen in line with this fall in POO, many companies have fallen much more than the percentage decline in the oil price. In comparison Savannah has done quite well. Savannah had a recent high of 44p and a low of 28p. Current Share Price is 32.5p at the time of writing this post. We are now entering an exciting period in the life cycle of this company and some interesting times lie ahead starting with the next 3 months. Lets have a look at how the company stands right now. To view the post plus the screenshots of the spreadsheets referred to in this post go to HTTP:// Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 16.20.34 A screen shot of the Summary Page sets the scene. We have 193m shares in issue following a placing that raised $38m to purchase two further blocks, R3 and R4 in the Agadem Rift Basin in Niger. The company raised this money at a premium to the then current share price The current market cap is 62.7m We have around 8 million in cash and this works out at around 4p per share. A competent persons report on the companies R1 and R2 blocks revealed 1.191 million prospective resources, a significant number. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 17.50.34 The Chinese have achieved an 80% success rate using 3D seismic. Savannah has in addition to 2D and 3D seismic undertaken a Full Tensor Gravimetric Survey carried out by Arkex and this has been integrated into their sub surface model, helping to identify 14 drilling prospects, which they hope to start to drill in Q4 of 2015. They are actively looking for an industry partner willing and able to inject $150m plus into the partnership. Lets look at the position before any farm in. The Summary Page encapsulates all this information. Savannah has a 95% entitlement on blocks R1 and R2 but the Niger Government has the right to a 20% back in so on success Savannah has 95 x 80 / 100 = 76%. Without any farmin partner SAVP has a fully diluted 76% entitlement before the details of the PSC are applied. You can view this figure in column P. The Tax Opex and Capex workbook handles Royalties etc. Without going into detail regarding the working of the Reserves Analysis Sheet the valuation based on 8 million barrels being achieved from the first five wells comes out at £2.41 Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.10.11 based on a $65 long term oil price assumption. If the current oil price is applied then this reduces to £1.27 If the company decides to go it alone and raises £25 m to fund a 5 well drilling program, increasing the shares in issue by say 80m then my target reduces to £1.25 with 273m shares in issue and using the current oil price. All these price target figures include a 25% reduction due to negative sentiment relating to the oil sector as a whole. The management options vest at £1.14 However….. It is quite clear that the preferred way forward is to attract a farmin partner willing and able to inject $150 - $200 million into the venture. I’m assuming that 50% of SAVPs entitlement will be given up to secure this deal so this reduces the entitlement figure from 76% to 38% but increases the cash by say $154m or £100m. This would raise the cash per share from 4p to 56p without raising the shares in issue. The figure would fund 25 plus wells being drilled in the Agadem Basin. Double click on the image to see full size. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.14.03 The resulting target is now £1.15 based on 8 million barrels found from the 5 wells but a cash injection of $150m would allow 25 wells to be funded with say a 40m target. This raises my initial target to £1.27 at the current share price if a long-term oil price assumption of $65 is applied this figure rises to £1.73 (see above) This is, IMHO, an ultra conservative initial valuation. Remember over 1 billion barrels are inferred in the CPR. Effectively this valuation only allows for 40m barrels to be moved into the 2P reserves category. My initial target, giving an upside from the current share price of around 300% is possibly on the cards remembering that when the options vest additional shares will be issued. The Chinese had an 80% success rate when translating prospective resources into 2P reserves. My figures are using a 60% chance of success for an initial 25 well drilling campaign targeting 40m of 2P reserves. This leaves just short of a billion barrels still to be accessed! We need only 4.39 mb of 2P reserves to cover the current share price The nice thing about my software is that it is simple to change the scenarios . Please do your own research and act accordingly and good luck with your investments. Hope that helps Kind regards Phil I hold Dalesmann gives no advice on buying selling and holding this, or any other stock mentioned in his posts. His posts are for education only.
Savannah Petrol share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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