Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[gisjob2] 26/4/2018 09:54

Thomas,

Like the interview. Savannah have already received calls since the drill about partnering with them in Niger. Blimey, sounds like companies desperate for a piece of the action.

[thomasthetank1] 26/4/2018 09:11

All, a Proactive Investors interview with Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Petroleum, is now live - Savannah Petroleum a much more grown up business focused on delivering value

Link below:
[...]

[ifthecapfits] 26/4/2018 08:30

This will be a great share in time. Nigeria, Niger basin proven to contain oil, drill under budget, lots of news to come.

[honestmarty] 25/4/2018 12:43

A mystery new poster on LSE claims large buys appeared on L2?

Can anyone comment?

[honestmarty] 25/4/2018 11:19

Have you a free phone number for the TSB?

[gersemi] 25/4/2018 11:17

Mate, we can't read the future. I am and others are as clueless about what may happen to the share-price as you are

You buy the stock and hope the price goes up

There's no free-lunch...try TSB high interest savings account!

[honestmarty] 25/4/2018 11:02

100,739 delayed buy.

In for a penny....

Where is the promised rise G. ?

[gersemi] 25/4/2018 10:36

4 v 1 (52k v 3k)

depth -

802k v 111k

-

nowt on th'offer...any decent buying will see this move nicely ahead

[honestmarty] 25/4/2018 08:28

Quoting 29.75p buy and sell

MM's we who are about to trade despise you!

[honestmarty] 24/4/2018 15:12

I have wagered far too much of my modest wealth here, as I do believe it is significantly undervalued and appears to be of an entirely different calibre to most AIM stocks.

Plus, poor Gingernuts strikes me as an able little Napoleon, striving to banish years of bullying at school. A man going places.

[zengas] 24/4/2018 15:00

"if we are worth 250p"

We aren't that's why you buy at 29.5p if you believe they can do what they say.

[honestmarty] 24/4/2018 14:54

Zengas, top marks for creative writing skills.

Just one little question,

If we are worth 250p , why are we sitting at 29p?

Just asking.

[zengas] 24/4/2018 13:32

This is my take re Nigeria -

92 mmboe 2P, 44 mmboe 2C.
85 mmboe exploration upside on current Nigeria assets.

Forecast free cash $100m/yr in just over 18 months time.

I expect further acquisitions/partnerships (which is the stated goal) and may bring us within reach of 50,000 boepd as well as adding further reserves and may bring us over the 200 mmboe P2 reserve line (separate to Niger).

Current 7e asset production set to grow to nearer 30,000 boepd.

Expect some possible debt on top of the free cash flow generation. Hopefully possible to double yearly free cash to nearer $200m with anticipated additional acquisitions.

Still waiting to hear on the strategic partnership re $30m being introduced by Asma partners and who have the option to put in a further $60m within 2 years.

Warrants at 35p have 9.5 months to run and could bring in a further $65m.

Therefore approx up to $155m of new money in the wings all at 35p which would bring the shares up to 1140m if all exercised. This could finance a significant asset(s) along with any debt and on top of a forecast $100m/yr coming in.

This is how i could see us giving off closer to $200m/yr free cash with patience.

We may retain all upside on Niger and a target of 2.8 billion bls.

With Niger/Nigeria i could see us getting to a combined 1 billion bls and using $4/boe (£1/$1.40) over 1140m shares = possible £2.50/share target based only on reserves. Haven't included what our Accugas interest might be worth.

Niger very possibly self financing from Nigeria ops given low cost of batch drilling. Circa $200m to first Niger oil (which includes current drilling) and could add another initial 10k bopd via trucking in circa 2 years.

CGG re Niger Dec2017:
"A phased approach to drilling (“batch drilling”) is also planned by Savannah. Batch drilling saves time, when there is a relatively large number of similar wells to drill. The phased “batch” approach to drilling is expected to proceed as follows:

Phase I: Use a full-size drilling rig. Perform main drilling of a “batch” of wells to full depth, wireline log, take sidewall cores and sample as required, and then suspend for later re-entry (if not dry).

Phase II: Use a smaller dedicated testing rig to perform wellbore clean-up and well test as required on a “batch” of wells.

Phase III: Use a smaller work-over rig to complete a batch of wells, ready for production.

On this basis, production wells are estimated to cost $5.8m. All wells will be subject to wireline logging, with 70% tested using Drill Stem Testing (DST). All successful exploration and appraisal wells are assumed to be re-used as producers".

[bushman1] 24/4/2018 12:24

Nigeria provides an ongoing steady cash flow, in Niger we go exploring..

[honestmarty] 24/4/2018 12:03

What's with the 2 500k trades?

[honestmarty] 24/4/2018 10:02

Another humbug performance from Gingernuts in yesterday's Vox podcast.

But he did let slip that the Nigerian business was continuing to impress so that means. Nice positive update in early May.

[divmad] 23/4/2018 15:57

...which of course validates the original reason for many of us LTHs buying SAVP in the first place.

And yet still the Nigerian asset acquisition hasn't been closed, but the shares issued to bondholders have. How many have found their way onto the market already?

[mount teide] 23/4/2018 15:41

A typical oil discovery on CNCP's Niger assets has either one or two of the six productive Eocene sands found to date within the basin.

It is highly encouraging for SAVP this has proved to be the case with their first well - the pressure, api gravity and levels of oil pay are also identical to many of the other successful wells drilled by CNCP in the Agadem Basin.

There is to be no re-inventing of the wheel, SAVP's business/drilling strategy will be to continue to do what has been done very successfully by CNCP on their adjacent acreage - to prove out that the productive geology across CNCP's assets within the Agadem basin extends out across the length and breadth of SAVP's assets within the Basin.

A real bonus that the well was drilled in two thirds of the time originally budgeted. If the next two prove similar - we could have the prospect of a buy three get one free deal on our hands!

[thomasthetank1] 23/4/2018 14:31

All, link below to Vox Markets podcast with Andrew Knott. His section starts at 11:10.

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/blogs/ecr-minerals-ecr-savannah-petroleum-savp-eco-atlantic-oil-gas-eco-malcy-savp-echo-sdx-rkh-fog-eco/

[divmad] 23/4/2018 12:34

What's holding the share price back is not this RNS, but the lack of closure on the Nigerian assets.

[thomasthetank1] 23/4/2018 09:51

Comments from Mirabaud and Cantor Fitzgerald on this morning's announcement below.

Mirabaud
E&P research
Savannah Petroleum – First strike
23 April 2018

Savannah Petroleum has announced that it has struck oil with its maiden exploration well, situated in the Agadem Basin, onshore Niger. The well was targeting the Bushiya prospect in the R3 block (SAVP 95% interest), and confirmed 10 metres of oil bearing reservoir across two intervals. Light oil, consistent with other discoveries in the basin has been recovered to surface, with reservoir qualities described as “excellentR21;, which is also consistent with the regional play. In our view Savannah could hardly have got off to a better start. Given the regional success by CNPC (>1bn bbls of 2P reserves in adjacent acreage), the well was low risk from a geological perspective, however this well has gone some distance in validating the concept that the play does indeed extend into Savannah’s acreage. Only with further analysis will accurate volumetrics be established, however with eight follow-on targets already identified by Savannah and reviewed by auditor CGG, with >100 additional less mature prospects and leads, the significance of the Bushiya result goes further than this discovery alone. The rig will now proceed to the Amdigh wellsite to drill the next well in the campaign, and given its similarities to Bushiya, Savannah will hope to continue its success at the drill bit.


Cantor Fitzgerald

Savannah Petroleum ↑ (SAVP.L, 27.75p, £227m) announced a discovery at the Bushiya-1 exploration well as an oil discovery. Bushiya-1 is located on the R3 portion of the R3/R4 PSC Area in south east Niger. Well encountered 10m of net oil pay across two Eocene Sokor intervals, with excellent reservoir quality. This appears to validate the geological model that SAVP has, and the result appears to be similar to that encountered by the other wells in the region (drilled by CNPC). The well was targeting c30mmbbls of resource, and whilst testing will be required to assess the true volumes discovered, this is a hugely encouraging start for the Niger exploration campaign. Well has been suspended, with testing to be carried out once the other two exploration wells in the current campaign are completed. Rig now moves to drill the Amdigh-1 exploration well. This is a great result for SAVP, and the result de-risks the upcoming wells. Positive

[honestmarty] 23/4/2018 08:19

Plenty of buying
MM games with spread

[honestmarty] 23/4/2018 08:05

Slow burner here.

The rise will come