Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[phoebusav] 09/6/2017 12:27

I still think it's SLE. Huge cashflow from their Nigerian production.

[trulyscrumptious] 09/6/2017 12:00

Glad I topped up last week! Wouldn't LEK be suspended as well if it were them?

[family values] 09/6/2017 11:51

HAFool
You have lost me

The vast majority of this company isn't owned by retail investors

It will be 80% insiders.( management, institutional investors and the target owners)

[haideralifool] 09/6/2017 11:45

FV - I'd be very surprised if any company knowingly and willingly gave away that level of upside to ordinary shareholders.

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 11:29

The Harder I Practice, the Luckier I Get

[taudelta1] 09/6/2017 11:26

Agree Buffy that this will trade away some of the upside, but that also happens with conventional farm-out ... and the consolation is a lowering of risk plus some immediate upside (hopefully). In this scenario I guess many of us take partial profits and rotate into the next wildcat. Btw I'm encouraged by having a substantial institutional s/holder base (including Std Life and Fido each 10%, Capital Gp 8%, LGIM 7%, Hendo 5%), which should reduce the risk to us of inappropriate strategic direction)..

[kirkuk] 09/6/2017 11:25

Buffy

The originator of the quote was Lord Nuffield, sometime before Hogan.

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 11:22

sadly, i have to say £91m mkt cap aim listed african focused Lekoil do look a strong possibility :0(

[family values] 09/6/2017 11:19

Lots of muddled thinking here.

Only 2 reasonable scenarios to consider.

Most likely,

AK has given us hints all along, he told us that the 12 million loan facility would not be used for exploration, I think it is going towards buying a producing asset, that is the cash element of the deal.
The deal involves equity, the only figure we have is JV number of 250 million dollars for 50%. Now I can't see him coughing up more that 20% of the company on a side deal. Say 100 million dollars.

Then there is the debt element, I suspect it will be quite high, and will sweat the oil and gas assets. Say double the equity and cash element.

So, do the maths and I see about 250 million dollars as the price of the target.

Therefore, 500 million now realised for Niger plus 250 million from target

750 million dollars roughly 600 million sterling

250 million shares plus 50 million issued to the target = 300 million shares

Gives a share price of 2 pounds roughly.

Have a nice day.

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 11:15

crown ocean capital do not have any oil and gas assets in the region according to their website.

[buffythebuffoon] 09/6/2017 11:13

That's a very informative post from Agadem. I just wish he had cited Ben Hogan as the originator of that quote, subsequently nicked by Gary Player who idolised Hogan.

I know New Age from my time in BLVN. They apparently have assets that are/can produce at 90,000 BOPD and they have a $425m borrowing facility.

The big question, for those of us who could see a huge multibagger in SAVP, is will we have a different animal that won't be capable of multi-bagging to the same extent. I get that we may get to our destination quicker with their financial power, but how will we be set up.

I guess what I'm really asking is, will AK benefit far more than we will?

Buffy

[gray1107] 09/6/2017 10:28

Alternatively, Crown Ocean Capital outsed the board of BLVN (process started in January) and have the assets up for sale as a result;



There is also Lekoil in the region who have been struggling to develop Otakikpo for a coupe of years (although now producing 5000+ bopd) and are being pressured to develop Ogo this year (which they can't fund).

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 10:23

I am incredibly excited now after the damp squib "significant" RNS just 2 days ago.

How a day changes everything.

If this really is an RTO by New Age then we will come back at several pounds per share prior to first spud in August.

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 10:18

SUMMARY:
• New Age planned IPO in London in late 2016 but pulled out.
• New Age, on listing, "would place them alongside the likes of Tullow Oil, Cairn Energy and Ophir Energy"
• SAVP announced they have been in talks Jan 2017.
• SAVP said RTO was with "a West African focused business in relation to the potential acquisition of substantially all of their oil and gas assets in the region"
• New Age have "twelve commercial discoveries - six oil fields and six gas fields" in the region

11 Sep 2016

New Age takes first steps towards stock market debut
(IPO would rank oil producer alongside Tullow, Cairn and Ophir)

"An IPO, if it went ahead, would place New Age alongside the likes of Tullow Oil, Cairn Energy and Ophir Energy among the handful of London-listed independent explorers operating in the shadow of the two UK majors, BP and Royal Dutch Shell"


"New Age has "twelve commercial discoveries - six oil fields and six gas fields" in the region"

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 10:11

Furthermore, the SAVP RNS said:

"it has entered into a binding exclusivity agreement with a West African focused business (the "Target") in relation to the potential acquisition of substantially all of their oil and gas assets in the region"

and New Age has "twelve commercial discoveries - six oil fields and six gas fields" in the region !!!!

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 10:02

11 Sep 2016

New Age takes first steps towards stock market debut
(IPO would rank oil producer alongside Tullow, Cairn and Ophir)

"An IPO, if it went ahead, would place New Age alongside the likes of Tullow Oil, Cairn Energy and Ophir Energy among the handful of London-listed independent explorers operating in the shadow of the two UK majors, BP and Royal Dutch Shell"

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 10:01

If this were true (big "IF") then this would be absolutely incredible.

They were planning to IPO in late 2016 and if they succeeded the FT said "An IPO, if it went ahead, would place New Age alongside the likes of Tullow Oil, Cairn Energy and Ophir Energy among the handful of London-listed independent explorers operating in the shadow of the two UK majors, BP and Royal Dutch Shell"


So it IS possible as they were definitely planning a list in late 2016 and pulled out....then yesterday SAVP announced they had been in talks since January 2017 !

This is just too much of a co-incidence to me !!

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/6/2017 09:29

New Age African Global Energy...INCREDIBLE if true.....BUT !

The SAVP RNS said "SAVP has entered into a binding exclusivity agreement with a West African focused business (the "Target") in relation to the potential acquisition of substantially all of their oil and gas assets in the region"

and New Age are not West Africa focused, they are all over Africa...North,East,South,West


However, the SAVP RNS did not say West Africa only, it says West Africa focused...so it COULD be them.

[haideralifool] 09/6/2017 09:26

^ According to that article, New Age has a breakeven price on poo of $17 a barrel.

[trulyscrumptious] 09/6/2017 09:10

Here's a bit about New Age from when they were planning a listing last year. They sound too good to be true!

[ifthecapfits] 09/6/2017 08:40

Speculation on other boards that it could possibly be New Age :0

[ifthecapfits] 09/6/2017 08:17

Any idea who it might be? Cant be that many contenders?

[diversification] 09/6/2017 08:02

Glum as ever, delta. Six months in the making, exclusitivty agreed. Teleconference weeks away, terms seem pretty much agreed. Take it you hold no shares, I can sense the bitterness.