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SAVP Savannah Petroleum Plc

8.90
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petroleum Plc LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 8.90 8.16 8.98 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3126 to 3148 of 6475 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
28/9/2018
11:56
Numis got it right , i got it wrong, i didn't think they used a single m for a thousand.
timberwolf3
28/9/2018
11:50
indeed Buffy; m is the same as K, Numis numbers correct.
xxnjr1
28/9/2018
10:32
1.9 million apparent buy :)
ifthecapfits
28/9/2018
10:18
Whoops, they used one ‘m’ instead of two didn’t they.

‘mm’is a million, if that’s what you were getting at.

Buffy

buffythebuffoon
28/9/2018
10:16
Shame timberwolf; I quite like their production estimates.

Buffy

buffythebuffoon
28/9/2018
10:04
From the RNS:

“Confirmation of Early Production Scheme ("EPS") plans anticipated to develop a recoverable resource base of 52 mmbbls, with a first phase expected to see production of c.1kbd from Q1 2019 and a second phase development planned to see production ramp up to c.5kbd during 2019;”

I guess they used that?

R.

rampair
28/9/2018
09:31
OOOps Numis have got there production figures wrong.

production of ~1mbbls/d expected to commence as soon as 1Q 2019, and phase 2 increasing production to ~5mbbls/d in 2019.

timberwolf3
28/9/2018
09:23
honestmarty - do you write these broker notes? similar style and content to your 'condensed' one liners about Bethlehem and Gingenstein!
plentymorefish
28/9/2018
09:08
Numis note this morning:

• SAVANNAH PETROLEUM (N/C) – 1H 18 results and update. SAVP made an operating loss of $19.3m in H1 18, but this of little relevance for the investment case (Niger oil production has not started yet and Seven in Nigeria is not yet consolidated – both of which will transform the company). The investment case is based upon monetising a string of successful oil discoveries in Niger, completing the Seven Energy acquisition in Nigeria and adding value to that asset. The cash position as of June 30th was $11.7m and funding has been enhanced by Savannah having secured a new US$50m facility with an oil trader, comprising an initial committed size of US$20m; the interest rate is a relatively attractive LIBOR +6% with the option to capitalise the first year’s interest. H1 cash operating costs came in at $7.3m which SAVP states points towards an enlarged group (i.e. post Seven consolidation) opex of $17.5-20m in 2018. In Niger Savannah has announced some details around a planned early production scheme (EPS), which will develop a recoverable resource base of 52mmbbls with initial production of ~1mbbls/d expected to commence as soon as 1Q 2019, and phase 2 increasing production to ~5mbbls/d in 2019. It makes sense for Savannah to bring on initial production rapidly to both provide cash-flows, and further operating information which can feed into technical studies for future work programs. This initial development will be low cost, with net capex of

gmr64
28/9/2018
08:11
Good volume.
ifthecapfits
28/9/2018
07:53
Comment from Cantor Fitzgerald this morning:

Savannah Petroleum ↑ (SAVP.L, 29.8p, £243m) Interims. Loss of $(17.6m) (1H17 $(5.8m)) on zero revenue. Net debt at June of $0.4m. Financial arguably, irrelevant as the company had significant success with the drillbit in Niger with four discoveries to date, and a fifth well (Zomo-1) currently drilling. The analysis of the portfolio has identified 120 potential structures to drill – evidence of the scale and potential across the Niger acreage. The EPS development continues, with a shorter export route now bringing the cost down, with initial production next year. The company is continuing to advance the purchase of the Seven Energy assets in Nigeria, with buying out various partners increasing the SAVP interests in the assets – thereby lifting the production and reserves. The company has also signed a $50m debt facility which will allow for acceleration of activity ahead of first production. The company has made great strides in a short period of time, and 2019 should prove transformational with first production in Niger and completion of Seven Energy deal. Positive

thomasthetank1
28/9/2018
07:50
Yeah about time too.
ifthecapfits
28/9/2018
07:33
Well the market loves it Marty. Bid on 32 😀 now. Here’s your chance to exit if you want?
nen2319
28/9/2018
07:14
Thomasthetank. I only re-post for the sake of those de-rampers who have their own agenda :


Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced a series of positive updates this ‎morning around its interim results. The bulk of the new news relates to Niger where the company has fleshed out its plans for well testing, early production (EPS), and future exploration.

For us, the key highlights are the pace and relatively low cost at which Savannah expects to monetise recent discoveries. Using its existing well stock the company expects to deliver first oil at 1 kbopd in Q1 2019 for less than US$5m in capex. The initial producer will be the Amdigh-1 well (where testing is set to start in Dec) with other discoveries tied back over the course of 2019, allowing for a ramp up to 5 kbopd. In total, SAVP envisages some 52 mmbbls being drained over the life of EPS, with opex estimated at US$9.8/bbl and capex at US$3.5/bbl - substantially lower than prior internal cost assumptions. Furthermore, SAVP's anticipated 'external financing' requirement is pegged at US$1.1/bbl (US$57m) which is relatively modest and could be funded from Nigeria cash flow.

As well as the EPS, the update also touches on the longer term development solution, namely exports to the Atlantic coast. In this regard, as rumoured in the press, the Niger Government has confirmed that pre-feasibility studies have been completed on the Benin pipeline which now appears the front runner. Fortunately for SAVP this option is likely to be cheaper (in tariff terms) than the Chad-Cameroon route which crosses several countries and relies on accessing a third party pipeline. Finally, speaking to the remaining exploration potential, the company noted that it has identified some 120 leads and prospects so far.

Assuming the basin wide average discovery size of c.11 mmbbls this implies in excess of 1.3bn bbls of running room. Importantly, most of this potential lies in the Sokor Alternances, ‎which are expected to be the near-term drilling focus, with additional prospectivity in the Upper Sokor and Cretaceous (which are proven plays in the basin but less well understood).

Separate to the Niger ops update, SAVP also unveiled a new three year US$50m credit line with an unnamed Geneva-based oil trader. In exchange for giving first right of refusal on ‎future oil trading activities (and paying certain arrangement fees), SAVP has negotiated a highly competitive interest rate of LIBOR plus 6%, with the added flexibility to capitalise interest in year one if it so chooses. US$20m of the facility is initially available, subject to final documentation, and provides the group with additional liquidity while it seeks to close out the Seven transaction.

Lastly, SAVP has also announced interim results today. The numbers themselves are of limited importance with the Seven assets yet to be consolidated into the group accounts. At the bottom line, the company reported a net loss of US$17.6m, with underlying cash costs (ex. transaction expenses) of US$7.3m - consistent with market expectations for enlarged group cash costs of between US$17.5-20m per annum. Meanwhile, on the balance sheet side, the company ended the period with US$11.7m of cash, with additional liquidity available under the new credit line and a substantial cash inflow expected on completion of the Seven transaction in Q4 (when SAVP will formally inherit surplus cash built up on Seven’s balance sheet since the deal was struck in Dec 2017).

Overall, today's updates ‎show solid progress across the board with the promise of more to come in the months ahead as the company seeks to close out the Seven deal and deliver first oil in neighbouring Niger

bushman1
28/9/2018
07:13
Well, they are moving forward and it is good news - I think it’s prudent to take the
50m, as this puts us on the road to production in Niger.

I take your point Marty about the cash from Nigeria, but, there are many reasons possible- as to why it’s sensible to separate the two Countries operations.

We are better off getting Niger going as quickly as possible, Libor plus 6% is a very good rate to borrow at so he’s being tight with the purse - good to see.

R.

rampair
28/9/2018
07:13
Zengas, you see AK's grand vision

I see 4th failed deadline on the RTO.

No access to 7E cash.

A 50 million overdraft.

A disappearing maiden dividend.

Smoke and mirrors job.

Gingenstein slouches towards Bethlehem

honestmarty
28/9/2018
07:00
Certainly moving at a very quick pace now.

52m bls recoverable from the EPS with drilling only having commenced 31st March.
First production Q1
1K bopd estimated to give $10m to the company.
5K bopd via the Bushiya (10k bopd) pipeline next year should throw off some $50m (recent broker note).
Costs vastly reduced.
90 Sokor Aletrnances targets mapped so far (120 total targets so far) - 4 yielding the discoveries.
Should leave any farm-out if they go down that route, more valuable.

zengas
28/9/2018
06:43
So now we know.

The 7E RTO has failed to complete for a FOURTH time.

Expected cash flow has not happened and they have gone cap in hand to a Swiss Wonga for an emergency 50 million.

All these wonderful plans are just distracting the gullible from the underlying disaster.

Gingenstein slouches towards Bethlehem.

honestmarty
28/9/2018
06:27
Mirabaud note on this morning's news flow below:

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has announced a series of positive updates this ‎morning around its interim results. The bulk of the new news relates to Niger where the company has fleshed out its plans for well testing, early production (EPS), and future exploration. For us, the key highlights are the pace and relatively low cost at which Savannah expects to monetise recent discoveries. Using its existing well stock the company expects to deliver first oil at 1 kbopd in Q1 2019 for less than US$5m in capex. The initial producer will be the Amdigh-1 well (where testing is set to start in Dec) with other discoveries tied back over the course of 2019, allowing for a ramp up to 5 kbopd. In total, SAVP envisages some 52 mmbbls being drained over the life of EPS, with opex estimated at US$9.8/bbl and capex at US$3.5/bbl - substantially lower than prior internal cost assumptions. Furthermore, SAVP's anticipated 'external financing' requirement is pegged at US$1.1/bbl (US$57m) which is relatively modest and could be funded from Nigeria cash flow.

As well as the EPS, the update also touches on the longer term development solution, namely exports to the Atlantic coast. In this regard, as rumoured in the press, the Niger Government has confirmed that pre-feasibility studies have been completed on the Benin pipeline which now appears the front runner. Fortunately for SAVP this option is likely to be cheaper (in tariff terms) than the Chad-Cameroon route which crosses several countries and relies on accessing a third party pipeline. Finally, speaking to the remaining exploration potential, the company noted that it has identified some 120 leads and prospects so far. Assuming the basin wide average discovery size of c.11 mmbbls this implies in excess of 1.3bn bbls of running room. Importantly, most of this potential lies in the Sokor Alternances, ‎which are expected to be the near-term drilling focus, with additional prospectivity in the Upper Sokor and Cretaceous (which are proven plays in the basin but less well understood).

Separate to the Niger ops update, SAVP also unveiled a new three year US$50m credit line with an unnamed Geneva-based oil trader. In exchange for giving first right of refusal on ‎future oil trading activities (and paying certain arrangement fees), SAVP has negotiated a highly competitive interest rate of LIBOR plus 6%, with the added flexibility to capitalise interest in year one if it so chooses. US$20m of the facility is initially available, subject to final documentation, and provides the group with additional liquidity while it seeks to close out the Seven transaction.

Lastly, SAVP has also announced interim results today. The numbers themselves are of limited importance with the Seven assets yet to be consolidated into the group accounts. At the bottom line, the company reported a net loss of US$17.6m, with underlying cash costs (ex. transaction expenses) of US$7.3m - consistent with market expectations for enlarged group cash costs of between US$17.5-20m per annum. Meanwhile, on the balance sheet side, the company ended the period with US$11.7m of cash, with additional liquidity available under the new credit line and a substantial cash inflow expected on completion of the Seven transaction in Q4 (when SAVP will formally inherit surplus cash built up on Seven’s balance sheet since the deal was struck in Dec 2017). Overall, today's updates ‎show solid progress across the board with the promise of more to come in the months ahead as the company seeks to close out the Seven deal and deliver first oil in neighbouring Niger.

thomasthetank1
28/9/2018
06:13
Should be an interesting open this morning, after all the news today.
beergut
27/9/2018
13:52
Plus interims and Zomo-1 due any day now...
shareideas1
27/9/2018
13:42
Been a while since the share price last stuck its head above the 200ma on decent volume to admire the view!
mount teide
26/9/2018
13:53
Div

I've never invested for gargantuan oil finds though that clearly exists. I'm in this for myself not what anybody else thinks re doubting the potential.

AIM doesn't concern me, it's the quality of the management that does and the high number of blue chip institutional investors that back the company.

I've consistently stated i have a £2 target knowing that there is much more upside potential beyond that.

If you look at H&Ps coverage you'll see the *155p unrisked target* assumes about
150 mmboe in Nigeria and about 225 mmbo in Niger = 375 mmboe total.

That 225 mmbo for Niger is under 8% of the 2.8 billion 'risked' Niger total oil or roughly 3% of the unrisked 7 billion figure.

This also assumes the warrant exercise/new money and greater number of shares.

We have 96.5 mmboe net in Nigeria and the analysts estimate we have circa 50 mmbls so far in Niger = 146.5 mmboe.

That's only a fraction of the Niger potential and there are some 40 drill ready targets out of 100+.

If people see a £236 m/cap company that's their problem. What i see is a company with potential for major value creation because of its production, near term 2nd country production, serious revenues with substantial world bank guarantees, self funding, substantial gas element immune from oil price swings rising at a 6% rate for the next number of years and on top of that an intended and not insignificant dividend in Q1.

zengas
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