Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[zengas] 20/9/2018 21:51

My case for 200p

With 100% of Uquo, the 3 principal take or pay contracts are 25,300 boepd.
Stubb Creek should go from 500 - 775 bopd net under our 100% ownership of UERL = 51% of Stubb Creek.

Post deal a 26,000 boepd producer.

Stubb Creek due to be debottlenecked should add another 6-700 bopd net in due course from that procedure alone.

See RNS 8/8/2018 near term early production from Niger Hub. (Up to an initial 5k bopd mentioned in interviews).

Q1 2019 possible 30,000 boepd producer ?

Also new 18km gas distribution pipeline has commenced (CGD project) to deliver 20 mmcf/d to the CFFZ and greater Calabar area = 3,000 boepd+ in next 15- 18 months.

Also states several other new projects under consideration.

With further discoveries in Niger from low risk exploration and the above public domain info, Savp must be capable of being seen as a 50,000 boepd medium term producer even without anything from bolt on opportunities or those 3 OMLs that were under consideration.

With significant cash generation the company could be positioned to add further assets perhaps outside of the 2 areas we operate in.

Further still, not too many companies with such a production profile, cash generation and intended dividend post deal that has up to 2.8 billion bl (risked) low risk exploration potential in one country alone. Almost 7 billion bls unrisked mid case.

This isn't even taking into account our 20% ownership of Accugas (and a further 10% option). This alone is a substantial opportunity given the size and capacity of the network way beyond what we currently or are capable of supplying to it on our own.

Imo the risk/reward is compelling and given the very substantial institutional support (2 have increased last 6 weeks) lends credence to how the institutions see this as I do.

[divmad] 20/9/2018 19:12

Zengas, I would prefer to see the final shape of savp to be equally represented in terms of reserves and potential production between its Niger and Nigerian assets, on a net basis, rather than top heavy in Nigeria. Does AK want the opposite? Why?

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 17:13

AMER and LEK (my little protege): Nice close!

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 17:12

Back to 25p tomorrow when the news are digested. Delay = Insecurity...
And don't forget the duster. Another -5/10% to be shaved...

[zengas] 20/9/2018 16:34

Going back to what I said last week and possiblility for deal making (in context of press speculation on Sinopec and others re discussions around the end of this month).

"That's why im wondering if the other 3 oilfields/OMLs that i previously mentioned where Universal had an interest (but not part of the transaction) might be in some sort of deal. It required about $200m if a deal could be agreed, so who knows maybe there could be some deal/asset swap with the chinese or others to allow them into Niger which at the same time would also boost SAVPs production and reserves from additional Nigerian fields ?.

All speculation for now but 2 Chinese and an Indian oil Company mentioned and no doubt a lot going on behind the scenes."

That leaves us and Sinopec running Stubb Creek and no longer any minority Universal Energy interest that had to be considered.

Anyone else think that by us buying out the minority interest holders in Universal Energy it removes those minorities from any discussion and their obvious restrictions/limitations in the minorities coming up with the resources to do a deal. It might pave the way for a deal to be done on those SAA oilfields that we were originally interested in and then had to move to discuss these outside of the 7E transaction.

Sinopec/ONGC/Savp take over the Universal Energy interest/re-instate the 3 OMLs. ?
We possibly swap Niger farmout for immediate reserves/production on those fields financed by Sinopec or other Niger partner such as ONGC deal ?

Would be value accretive from the outset, increase our cashflow and self finance forward drilling on Niger (which are also near early production) on a reduced 50-50 cost basis ?

[thelung] 20/9/2018 16:16

Ma cherie, I really did think you were better at this game than you are turning out to be :-(

Still, i like the cut of your jib :-)

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 15:16

LEK: Bid up 3x today and no sellers...It's now or never.

[bushman1] 20/9/2018 15:13

A5 pay attention now :


ZENGAS

Uquo -

We lose 6 mmbo 2P oil at Uqo which was only giving us a small net 200 bopd production.

We gain a 14% increase in gas production (going from 87.7 - 100% interest)

Gain a net 5.6 mmboe 2P gas.

Cash neutral on the purchase side of $20m now on completion and $14.3m spread over 3 years.

We were to spend $35m capex on oil in 2018/19 so that is cancelled out.

Stubb Creek -

Gain 1.5 mmbo 2P oil. Net production was 500 bopd so this should increase by 275 bopd at least to make up the loss of 200 bopd net Uqo oil production as our interest goes from 32% to 51% (60% increase).

Also gain 18.6 mmboe 2C Gas.

Cost of $3m more than covered by in increased oil production (and reserves).

This was to be de-bottlenecked with Sinopec from September 2018 to increase oil production by about 90%.

Overall a gain of 7.1 mmboe 2P and 18.1 mmboe 2C for about $3m.

Not allowing for this years production 2P should be about 100 mmboe.
2C should be 62 mmboe (increased from 44 mmboe).

Niger

4 Niger discoveries (30- 50 mmbo guess) and gearing up for early production.

Would we be close now to 200 mmboe 2P/2C and over 2.5 billion boe still to target in Niger ?

Given Niger success we could be on track to grow reserves significantly and be a significant all round producer.

20% interest in Accugas (with option over a further 10%) and work on the ground progressing for more higher paying gas customers.

Don't forget that we are in one of the big gas network supply contracts - now we have 100% control and Uqo processing plant being relinquished from Frontier Oil to Savp/Accugas.

Looks very, very good to me on all fronts and if news on any deals re Niger and AKs ambition to have 2 rigs operating there by back end of the year and a high creaming curve still to fulfill, we could be ripe for a significant growth period and things look to be falling into place.

Divmad20 Sep '18 - 14:53 - 2965 of 2966
0 2 0
Much more relaxed now about the 7E deal completion slippage.
AK is building a solid medium- to long-term business in two neighbouring countries, with clear synergies

[plentymorefish] 20/9/2018 14:57

Thanks for the warning(s) honestmarty!....;)

[divmad] 20/9/2018 14:53

Much more relaxed now about the 7E deal completion slippage. AK is building a solid medium- to long-term business in two neighbouring countries, with clear synergies between the two. Let the short term trading brigade have their say now. Quality will out eventually.

[zengas] 20/9/2018 14:48

From what i make of it and can see what has been holding it up

Uquo -
We lose 6 mmbo 2P oil at Uqo which was only giving us a small net 200 bopd production.
We gain a 14% increase in gas production (going from 87.7 - 100% interest)
Gain a net 5.6 mmboe 2P gas.
Cash neutral on the purchase side of $20m now on completion and $14.3m spread over 3 years.
We were to spend $35m capex on oil in 2018/19 so that is cancelled out.

Stubb Creek -
Gain 1.5 mmbo 2P oil. Net production was 500 bopd so this should increase by 275 bopd at least to make up the loss of 200 bopd net Uqo oil production as our interest goes from 32% to 51% (60% increase).
Also gain 18.6 mmboe 2C Gas.
Cost of $3m more than covered by in increased oil production (and reserves).
This was to be de-bottlenecked with Sinopec from September 2018 to increase oil production by about 90%.

Overall a gain of 7.1 mmboe 2P and 18.1 mmboe 2C for about $3m.

Not allowing for this years production 2P should be about 100 mmboe.
2C should be 62 mmboe (increased from 44 mmboe).
4 Niger discoveries (30- 50 mmbo guess) and gearing up for early production.
Would we be close now to 200 mmboe 2P/2C and over 2.5 billion boe still to target in Niger ?

Given Niger success we could be on track to grow reserves significantly and be a significant all round producer.

20% interest in Accugas (with option over a further 10%) and work on the ground progressing for more higher paying gas customers.

Don't forget that we are in one of the big gas network supply contracts - now we have 100% control and Uqo processing plant being relinquished from Frontier Oil to Savp/Accugas.

Looks very, very good to me on all fronts and if news on any deals re Niger and AKs ambition to have 2 rigs operating there by back end of the year and a high creaming curve still to fulfill, we could be ripe for a significant growth period and things look to be falling into place.

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 13:56

Another one bite the dust:
TheLung20 Sep '18 - 13:04 - 81 of 83 (Filtered)

alamaison517 Sep '18 - 18:11 - 64 of 82 Edit
1) update on Nigeria closure: LEK waited 4 years for OPL10. Just for 17% of AFR assets. And still waiting for the other 22%...
2) Sokor discoveries are miles away from this drill. I personally expect a duster.
3) R4 has plenty of leads but NO discoveries...
Also the RNS is vague as where they're drilling.
- on the R3 portion of the R3/R4 PSC Area in the Agadem Basin, south east Niger- What portion? They do not share any land...
So I would expect south. But South is dry.
hxxps://www.savannah-petroleum.com/en/niger
4) All 3 strikes created no or very little interests. Ask yourself an honest question. WHY?
I was holding shares in each one of them. The most I've made was 5%, lol
Commercial or not commercial?
This is the question.
I like Savp, a lot. But until we know, we don't.

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 13:55

26? Nope, I have revise my target to 24p, to start with the duster.
Then 22p...
:-] by end of November...
It's a game of patience and perseverance.
Still no hearing booked for the licence.
LEK waited 4 years for 17% of AFR assets to be transferred.
So you could be here waiting for another, lets say, few month?
:-}

Anything can happen, especially now... It's never a done deal until it's done. Isn't it?
My money is on LEK and AMER.
xxx

[thelung] 20/9/2018 13:04

ala the fantasy trader

Bought at 26.7 and banked a 7% gain last week???? Impossible

Good luck buying at 26.0 :-)

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 13:03

Absolutely, absolutely! Perhaps, maybe, hopefully, we'll see.
xxx

[ifthecapfits] 20/9/2018 12:59

So there is a delay - so what? these things take time. the deal will still be done.

[honestmarty] 20/9/2018 12:56

I did try to warn you all .

Gingestein slouches towards Bethlehem.

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 12:53

Oops, some delay? Fourth quarter now...December? If...

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 08:18

SAVP duster to be announced tomorrow, lol.
Me hoping for my low entry.
It's a game of patience and perseverance.
Still no hearing booked for the licence.
LEK waited 4 years for 17% of AFR assets to be transferred.
So you could be here waiting for another, lets say, few month?
:-}

[thelung] 19/9/2018 20:35

5 is my lucky number.

7 is my unlucky number.

:-))

[thelung] 19/9/2018 20:34

Fingers crossed.

They should have already hit pay in the shallow sequence between 1500-1800m

[thelung] 19/9/2018 19:02

11 days since Zomo spudded and Eridal reached TD at 2,542m in 14 days

Zomo TD is planned for 2,438m

Page 7 on this presentation shows depth of pay in the previous 4 wells

[thelung] 19/9/2018 18:57

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
19-Sep-18 16:35:28 26.60 1 Sell* 26.60 27.50 0.27 UT