Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 34.625p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:40:25
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -6.7 -3.2 - 73.64

Savannah Petrol Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1776 to 1795 of 1800 messages
Chat Pages: 72  71  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63  62  61  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
16/12/2017
04:21
Honestmarty - My take on the 'in the event the deal does not eventuate' is that this is Nigeria after all. I am sure AK believes the deal will definitley go ahead and will be pitching this to the II. Nigeria being Nigeria there is always risk.Even from SAVP side. For example what if SAVP raise the money but then war breaks out? Do they have the option to pull out of the deal at this stage? I think this is just a footnote to cover any eventuality working in Nigeria mightpose rather than something more sinister.
bushranger
15/12/2017
17:54
Malcy post todayhttp://www.malcysblog.com/2017/12/oil-price-sdx-energy-president-energy-savannah-petroleum-amerisur-resources-sundry-petrofac-iog-finally/Says nothing of interest.
lithological heterogeneities
15/12/2017
11:16
I'm really struggling on the bit about what happens if Nigeria is abandoned. The RNS says the money will be used for Niger. How could any uninvolved corporate sign up for that. " Rupert Here, Take this 250 million, and sure if that detailed Nigerian plan doesn't happen, just hold on to it and spend it in Niger and a few more holes in the ground, and camels, we like camels, the boss finds those big humps,... arousing" No, something odd here, I smell a Chinese rat.
honestmarty
15/12/2017
10:32
Superb post Zengas. Buffy
buffythebuffoon
15/12/2017
10:26
Mount Teide, the obvious thing to do is operate in the UK, as the chances of red or black are better! Buffy
buffythebuffoon
15/12/2017
10:21
I sense a frantic weekend on the boards by 'the crew' educating PI's on why they should sell on relist which will allow them to buy and limit their losses. It's already ratcheted up on L S E.
thelung
15/12/2017
10:13
As for the drilling in Niger, The last estimates by CGG came out around 2.2 billion bls of potentially recoverable oil on a risked basis (1.7 billion net). We know the company was after an up to $250m farmout figure for 30-50% giveaway. To get that size of farmout is/was likely in stages depending on the outcome of stage one before committing/releasing more capital to the next phase. On a success case i would still have seen Savp having to raise capital as they would not be carried indefintely beyond X number of wells or infrastructure spend if they had gotten to the successs case. True, if successful they could have gotten cash at a higher price but that's the risk and there's been a few that's been hammered this way - Look at Copl on it's Liberia well and farmin/carry by worlds biggest - Exxon. Well didn't come in and Copl had to come to the market for funds with little in its favour. Savp wanted to retain operatorship in Niger otherwise a new operator could work to their own designs. Maybe this was why a farmin was not forthcoming (maybe it still will) and we may never know but i don't consider it all to be just that straightforward and maybe Savp didn't want to give up too high a percentage. Very worst case was if Savp had say gotten carried for first phase of 3- 5 wells and the results were poor -bad and the farrminee didn't proceed to stage 2 or decide to do anything on stage 2 for another 12 months or so. This would have left Savp in a poor negotiating position as well as struggling for cash if early results had gone against them and unable to move on especially if not in control as operator. Investors who are crying foul now would be gone and looking for the next big play and leaving Savp to it's own devices. But management are right to look to securing and underpinning the company. Let's face it one of the biggest critics (on lse) has said Niger was worth 8p so if it could be driven down to 23p while waiting, one could assume it could go well below 23p if it had failed with nothing else to underpin it and result in as much dilution as there is now as it sought new funds. I don't see anyone who is currently critical, addressing this risk in their thinking. With this deal - i see the share price being underpinned and can grow from the Nigeria assets regardless. Although it's cost us dilution at the outset it's also derisked the company by generating cash flow and intended dividend. Niger is funded. There is ongoing cash flow from this deal not only for future funding but also to bid for/buy more assets. Savp remains in control of Niger and instead of giving up 30-50% - by this strategy they retain a risked recoverable of 500 - 850 mmbls that they would otherwise have signed away to a farminee .That's not to be sniffed at. It also means that with a bigger risked recoverable number to play for, we could get by on having a smaller success rate. Yes the big, big upside will be reduced if it had come in but so many companies get crippled by early poor results when nothing to fall back on. Some can say they were duped or conned as they allege til the cows come home but the bottom line imo is about derisking going forward and building a strong company. What if Niger delivers handsomely and they then farmout at a much bigger premium that they use to buy more production or other assets? That's why at this stage i don't close my mind to the overall potential or upside limitations as things evolve. Speculators and risk takers who may have bought or spreadbet for 1-3 well plays don't come into consideration when management are serious about trying to deliver over the longer term unfortunately.
zengas
15/12/2017
09:53
the farm out would of been a $250m raise also so what's the difference? So now savp have $250m raise for $88m cash per year and that cash can fund the drilling for 2.2 billion barrels potential!
parisv
15/12/2017
09:15
You do know I was only joking about Piers et al? I meant the financial media.
honestmarty
15/12/2017
09:10
It's probably too complicated or time consuming for them to digest honestmarty.
trulyscrumptious
14/12/2017
23:43
Good post by olderandwiser on lse.... 19SAVP MC pre-suspension: £95mn Purchase cost of Seven assets: $270mn, equal to £200mn at an exchange rate of 1.35. Implied MV on re-listing: £375mn to £400mn (@40p-50p). So, uplift in MV for existing shareholders on placing price: £280mn - £305mn for a purchase cost of new assets of £200mn (uplift: £80mn - £105mn).. Don't forget, the Seven assets are being purchased at 50% of NPV(10) initially, and are expected to generate a free cash flow of circa $88mn, and pay a dividend of $12.5mn (£9.25mn), which equates to a starting gross dividend yield range of 2.3% to 2.5%. Plus shareholders get to keep 100% of the upside on the first 3-5 drilled wells on the Agadem Niger prospects, with a target of >250 mmbbls of prospective oil resources. Using the $2.9/boe for P2 reserves, SAVP in order to double the share price from 40p to 80p, (an uplift in valuation of £375mn) would need to establish P2 reserves of circa 175mmbls from that drilling. This uplift assumes no further value added from the Seven assets. Doable? Quite possible, based on CNPC historical success rates. Good valuation base from which to start this new chapter in SAVP's life cycle? You bet ya.
parisv
14/12/2017
22:13
ParisV I didn’t say voting no would stop it. Very odd offer this one. Give us the money to buy X, but if it doesn’t go through we’ll keep the money and spend it elsewhere. Never seen anything like that before. It’s almost as if you already know who the lucky investors are, and have agree things in advance. I wonder are things done like that in the land of China? “Wheels within wheels here “as my old KungFu master used to say, that and ‘ Stop eating bread fat white boy’ Still, I don’t see the IIs signing up unless it’s good Ready to drill, fully funded, dividend paying oil producer. Did I mention we also sell gas and own a pipeline?
honestmarty
14/12/2017
22:04
ALBA currently trading at 0.39p target price 6p making a nice 15 bagger. Please read the following: MARKET CAP PUZZLE ❖ Alba (market cap £8.4m) is in a resources neighbourhood populated with listed companies with much enhanced market capitalisations, such as UKOG.L (£134m) and JAY.L (£172m). With either shared project interests or adjacent tenements to these companies, Alba should trade at a much higher valuation than its current token value. Like Bluejay, Alba owns 100% of its ilmenite project. Direct comparisons with UKOG are also instructive. While both companies own other projects, UKOG’s 49.9% of Horse Hill Developments Limited (HHDL), when compared to Alba’s 18.1% means that Alba has approximately one third of the value of Horse Hill compared to UKOG but only about 7% of the market capitalisation. Once the market recognises these disparities, the room for growth in Alba’s share price is undeniable. VALUATION RATIONALE - Our valuation in this First Equity Limited initiation note uses a risked valuation approach for Alba’s two main projects, at Horse Hill and TBS. The Horse Hill licences are valued using independent published technical data from Schlumberger, Xodus and Nutech on the oil potential of the licences, along with our own assumptions on recovery rates, oil discovery value, resource and development risks factors. From this a risked value of $127m net to Alba on a ‘Base Case’ basis is derived for Horse Hill. Given the similar geology and economic potential of both TBS and Dundas, we have adopted a risked closeology valuation approach, by computing an NPV for Dundas of $223m and then applying a three-tiered risked probability calculation to arrive at a value of $54.7m for TBS. Once Alba announce its JORC resource and exploration target at TBS and Bluejay its Feasibility Study results, this number is likely to be revised upwards very rapidly, possibly up to $200m, representing up to 7p per share in additional shareholder value. We compute a valuation of $185m (£139m) for Alba, equating to 6.0p per share, of which 4.1p is attributed to the stake in Horse Hill, 1.8p for TBS. Given this analysis and wealth of valuation catalysts anticipated across the project portfolio in the coming months, we recommend the shares as a ‘BUY, with a Target Price of 6.0p, representing a potential 15 times plus uplift from the current share price.
stephen2010
14/12/2017
21:49
lol with 71% of shares held with ii's and directors good luck with that.
parisv
14/12/2017
17:59
Much crying over on the other site. Let's all vote no.
honestmarty
14/12/2017
17:55
40 to 50p is the indicative range. If there is an over subscription in the book build I assume the final price could be higher? Anyone any experience in these matters?
honestmarty
14/12/2017
17:27
Ngms, yes, a positive drill result will have a lesser effect. But given the size of the resource we are targeting, good news should still have a dramatic effect. The downside associated with asset location is already fully reflected in the placing price range. It was never just the drill bit findings, the value will also be reflective of funding, development plans, access to capital. And the deal enhances those aspects lessening the dilution concern. Not only that but it is clear value opportunities await in Nigeria to excite, never mind Niger To repeat Drill ready, fully funded, dividend generating, oil producer. Much to admire. Did I mention we also sell gas and own a pipeline?.
honestmarty
14/12/2017
16:33
Nothing from Malcy yet? Love him or hate him - I do quite like his views.
ifthecapfits
14/12/2017
16:27
Horrible dilution for the drilling which will now be low impact.It's against all the reasons why I'm invested.As soon as I can be I'm out, possibly even at a loss as this will not trade at a premium to the placing IMHO given the location of the acquired assets.
ngms27
14/12/2017
14:36
honestmarty Very good point about the shorters. they will be forced to bail out on Tuesday causing a big spike. if the placing is at a discount to value we could also see a double whammy with Institutions buying as well. Tuesday should be a very interesting day.
lithological heterogeneities
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P:43 V: D:20171216 05:28:14