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Sanne Group Share Discussion Threads
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|Someone dumped a shed load of shares today, the only institutions with that kind of holding on the register are:
There may have been some insti share intra share trading but it's hurt the share price that's for sure.
Seems like it was PDMR's
|Thanks Alpha, there should be an investor presentation on their website later today.
Frankly, I'm reassured that the share price has held up OK as the results I think only met rather than exceeded expectations.
As you demonstrate, valuing SNN at roughly 600p is sensible but does assume significant ongoing growth. My angle is that it is a very high quality global growth stock with excellent strategy and management. It has momentum. Yeah yeah...anyway I'm a fairly happy holder.
Let's see if those target prices are reconfirmed over the next few days.|
|Chasbas - Apologies if this is vague but it is from my old notes and whilst it's in a format I trust when calculating my target price it wasn't something I planned to share!
I've been trying to calculate revised target prices after the two acquisitions in October and 30/11 and I then revised further after the January upgrade. What I did was assume the profits acquired then traded on the same forward PE and then scaled up the share price using the close from 2nd October (the day before the first acquisition). To do this was a bit crude but what I did is used bits in the RNS like op prf or EBITDA and then guessed a cautious tax rate of around a third. For the first one this was easier as there were no shares issued and I got a new target of £5.34 based on a new forward EPS of 17.68p.
The second one I had a net impact on EPS such that £6 would then have equated to a forward of 25. My notes had them paying $127.3m for an op prf of $18.4m which I then took off a third for tax (prob too much) for a purchase PE of c10.
I then took the 'materially ahead' statement in Jan to add 10% to this to give me a minimum of £6.60 before acknowledging we'd moved into a new financial year and before any synergies etc. So my Dec 2017 PE remained 25.
Apologies if this somewhat vague but it would take me some time to give a perfect answer when I already trust what I have done (though of course I don't expect you to!) I hope it still adds some value though on the figures and process I used to arrive at it.
FWIW as of mid February RBC had an £8.10 target and Berenberg £7.65. I suspect they've got this from using lower tax rates than me along with some forecast synergies/growth.|
|Results appear in line. RBC had forecast FD Adj EPS 17.4p - exactly as delivered. Chairman says "growth prospects remain positive...Sanne is well placed to continue to deliver strong growth."
Only negative I can see is underlying operating profit margin falling to 35.5% v 37.9% but this follows a "transformational year" completing 4 acquisitions, so may not be relevant.
IMO shares are top quality but highly rated: PE 34x current year.
Can anyone help with forecasts?|
|Year to 31 Dec 2016
- Group revenue increased 40% to £63.8 million (2015: £45.6 million)
- Underlying operating profit up 31% to £22.7 million (2015: £17.3 million)
- Underlying profit before tax up 37% to £22.0 million (2015: £16.1 million)
- Operating profit up to £14.7 million (2015: £5.9 million)
- Profit before tax up to £15.0 million (2015: £2.4 million)
- Diluted Earnings per share (EPS) at 11.3 pence (2015:1.4 pence), underlying diluted EPS 17.4 pence (2015:13.9 pence)
- Recommended final dividend per share (DPS) of 6.4 pence, bringing the total dividend for the year to 9.6 pence, inclusive of the previously paid 3.2 pence interim dividend (2015:7.0 pence in total)
- Strong pipeline of new business within Sanne's core alternatives focused business divisions (Debt, Real Estate, Private Equity and Hedge)
- Projected annualised value of new business won in the year of approximately £13.8 million (2015: £13.0 million)
- Acquisitions completed in United States, Mauritius (2017), South Africa, Ireland and the Netherlands broadening capabilities and geographic footprint|
|Added a few more today at £6.20. As I see it the company needed a price of £5.61 for 250 auto entry at 30th Dec and the market has weakened since. IMO that means Feb will have two tailwinds - buying ahead of the upgraded results and fund buying ahead of the 2nd March index review. Both events look pretty nailed on so thought I might as well take advantage.|
|Yeah. 250 is a definite now|
|It is now! At £5.30 mcap £607m. Acquisition c£100m so will be c£707m. Auto entry currently £721m, needs 2% based on current figures (assuming these stay the same) and needs completion to be done by end of Feb 2017 for the March review (says expects completion Q1 2017).|
|This is going to FTSE250|
|And there goes £4|
|£4 target in the interim|
|Any ideas on this..?|
|Some very large trades today|
I had at look when it floated but opened at a premium and was on too rich a valuation for me. Read recently that Harry Nimmo is keen on the story. I'm just watching for now.|
|simon nice to see you here.
had a brief look at this, struggling to see value, it appears to me to be very expensive.
to be honest i only glanced over the figures in the perspectus but the following made me baulk
shares in issue 116m
pat last year £6.1m so strong margins
assuming they put the proceeds of the ipo to clear some/all the debt then adding back the finance costs last year they could have made around £9.2m pat for eps of 8p which puts them on a historic per of around 34.
net debt £30m proceeds from ipo £19m so given the balance sheet debt can't be cleared then interest costs can't be covered by the ipo funding therefore per is even higher!
have you read the prospectus in detail, am i missing something.
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