Sage Share Discussion Threads

[spacecake] 14/5/2021 14:07

They maybe the largest technology company in the UK, but globally there just a tiddler.

Don't little fish like SAGE Group in the global pond get gobbled up ?

[grafter] 14/5/2021 12:45

Shaky Sage fails to inspire confidence -

The subscription model adds to the stickiness - anyone with a Netflix account should know that. But digital accounting and payroll solutions are becoming easier to use, meaning the difficulty of transitioning to a new provider is not as hard as it used to be. Sage's competitive moat might be being breached.

And while the quality investment case remains intact, there are signs of fragility in these numbers. Operating margins dipped to 20 per cent as the cost of expanding the business increased. Customer retention by value fell below 100 per cent. Sage is still struggling to get moving in a dynamic, fast-moving market. Its moat may no longer be enough to protect it from attackers.

Boxall - IC

[julcester] 14/5/2021 12:42

Yeah, the share price is disconnected from its fundamental's, definitely. It confuses me, how can Silicon Valley tech firms get valued at crazy multiples, but Sage doesn't. I think the majority of people still view Sage as a boring pack of CD Roms that your local book keeper uses.Compare it to Intuit, a market cap 15 times higher than Sage, PE ratio 2.5 higher than Sage, a dividend 1/5 of Sage!!!

[spacecake] 14/5/2021 12:15

AMT, how is it nonsense, the share price is the same as it was 5 years ago. Patience is required.

[maddox] 14/5/2021 09:34

On first glance looks boring at the top-line (tough comparators/disposals) but the underlying trend is very interesting - particularly NCA = new customer acquisitions, and ARPU average revenue per user. Churn rate is consistent and in-line with pre-Covid levels, showing great resilience (but we have to factor in the Govt support measures here).

Growth rates are expected to move up H2 and margins will widen overtime along with recurring revenue growth; prices will be held. Two years cash generation > 100% shows the strength in this business, very low debt. Roughly half-way through the buy-back programme that should end mid to late August.

Good progress against the Covid challenge - the Cloud-native SaaS butterfly is emerging from the on-premise chrysalis.

Regards Maddox

[p1nkfish] 14/5/2021 08:28

Presentation about to start on investor section.

[julcester] 14/5/2021 08:25

I am personally astounded that it hasn't been a takeover target.

[julcester] 14/5/2021 08:23

Couldn't agree more. Anyone who understands anything about the move to a SAAS business model knows that a) it's difficult b) it takes time c) it is highly rewarding.Plenty of well respected companies have failed in such a transition.Sage HAVE achieved 80% of the move, delivering profit and a div.

[amt] 14/5/2021 07:39

What nonsense. How can it be called Jam tomorrow.
Its the UKs leading software company and has been for years and paying a decent dividend.
Its got through the pandemic remarkeably well.
Its changing its business model to subscription like many other software companies so a little bit of patience required.
Got to be in demand from pension funds looking for yield and steady secure growth.

[spacecake] 14/5/2021 07:26

Another 'jam tomorrow' story, while in present it's glacial progress.

[amt] 14/5/2021 07:14

Expect some upgrades then

[amt] 14/5/2021 07:14

Following a strong performance in the first half, we now expect organic recurring revenue growth for FY21 to be towards the top end of our guidance range of 3% to 5%

[p1nkfish] 29/4/2021 09:17

Buyback keeps on chugging along.

[b1nky] 15/4/2021 00:32

The estimate I gave wasn't specific to sage. It was an average. Taken in good markets and bad. Undervalued stocks and otherwise. (Having said that, buybacks presumably only occur when the management think that the stock is undervalued). The market has been very strong of late, and the economy is recovering strongly. So, yes, I think they will perform better than my original estimate. GLA

[p1nkfish] 11/4/2021 20:21

I agree. A spring being wound and predictability of SaaS will only help. Will remain here to see this work its way through. Might add if there is a pull-back, hold a decent amount already at sub £6.

The Soc Gen price target reduction to £5.30 is counter to your and my thinking.
That is the interesting thing, might lead to some pull-back the buyback could take advantage of and so could I.

Why would Soc Gen do that given the evidence of price action, buyback and business transition?

[maddox] 11/4/2021 19:35

Hi binky,

We are a fifth of the way through the buy-back programme (19.7% to be precise - on both volume and value) with 492,915 shares purchased, lowest price paid 574p, highest paid 656p and weighted average price paid 599p. The share price has moved up c.13% and is moving higher more rapidly on less volume.

Seems to me, we might see a far higher rise than your original 25% estimate - whatdayareckon?

I'd appreciate your thoughts.

Regards, Maddox

[p1nkfish] 10/4/2021 10:13

If I wanted to continue to buyback I would quite welcome a low price forecast. The gap between the recent two is not immaterial.

[p1nkfish] 08/4/2021 23:45

Thank you Mdx.

[p1nkfish] 08/4/2021 16:35

Oh - don't follow but good luck with it if you do.
DBAY bought off Dir at 150p, results soon and looks like a roadshow type of talks due - for one reson only - to drum up share support.

SAGE - I think they are tidying up for a sale and hence the Swiss non-core disposal, or, they are tidying for a purchase within their core.

Either way they are reducing distractions for a reason that should be value enhancing overall imho. DYOR etc.

[b1nky] 08/4/2021 16:26

Just followed you in to ANX. I like it!!!

[p1nkfish] 08/4/2021 13:52

Lovely!
Good to see and I suspect it will hold a fair amount of these gains this time. DYOR etc and GLA.

Took a position in ANX same time and expecting that to pop-up in next 2-6 months if I have my ideas straight - don't buy it, just my whitterings, pleased SAGE did as expected and hope the same for ANX.

[b1nky] 08/4/2021 13:27

Told yer!!!!

[spacecake] 01/4/2021 16:34

It's on it's way, buybacks ?