Saga Share Discussion Threads

[pander45] 16/6/2019 10:48

Share price doesn't think so.

[sunnybeachboy] 16/6/2019 09:24

Exciting times ahead for SAGA with these 2 new boats.

[wskill] 16/6/2019 08:31

The cruise side of holiday travel worldwide has grown through 9/11 the 2 x gulf wars and the 2008 crash and is forecast to continue to grow revenue per berth has grown every year. Brexit I would think is small potatoes in comparison.

Do not think that Saga will have to worry about filling its new vessels.

The insurance side is of course not in a great place of the cycle at present , with the present admittedly late in the day changes to customer loyalty benefits and acquisition of new customer improvements things can only get better .

I for one think that we are going the right way with the 2 new ships and hope this is just the start 37% growth this next year to August 2020 in available berths is a sensible approach then another 37% from August 2020.

[edmondj] 16/6/2019 07:34

Possibly but my attention is on short/medium-term prospects for the Travel side, The Mail (or Saga's financial PR pitch to the hack, to stymie the stock fall ahead of the AGM) is talking up on the basis of more people taking cruises.

Nearly 3 months ago at prelims, they said: "Travel maintained profitability but parts of Tour Operations remain under pressure... the Travel division had its fifth successive year of profit growth, beating £21m Underlying Profit Before Tax for the first time. However, Brexit is putting a clear dampener on customers' willingness to commit to holidays in 2019."

This, as cruise capacity is due to rise 80% (Numis estimate), maybe 40% assuming that refers to two ships with the second not due for another year. So they will need to fill this space at a time when they concede Brexit is already hurting demand, and the prospect suddenly looks more like a hard Brexit and such effects are yet to happen.

Trying to be objective here, not de-ramp, as the chart indeed reflects a barking dog and one needs sound reasons to buck it.

Around 36.5p the stock yields 11% assuming circa 8p EPS and a 50% payout ratio (recent assumptions). Possibly some index-fund selling is driving it down, possibly also questions as to how realistic is this scenario. Various other insurers are moving to fixed-price multi-year policies too, and the underwriting side Saga conceded had benefited from reserves releases (otherwise underwriting revenue fell 8.2%) that can't continue at a similar rate.

Bull case, anyone?

[glavey] 16/6/2019 04:52

"Where are the shareholders yachts?"

Given the modest profit contribution made by 'cruise' might buying one's own ships suggest an extravagance to satisfy the ego of a gentleman with a love of the Navy and the sea?




XS1610655950

[edmondj] 15/6/2019 21:27

"New blood poised to take charge" ?? Batchelor will remain i/c another six months and a search for his successor has only just started.

[bargainbob] 15/6/2019 20:37

Diku you into this dog ?

[diku] 15/6/2019 19:14

Please don't shed a tear...he is laughing all the way to his bank...



Chief executive Lance Batchelor paid the price and is stepping down in January.

[blueball] 15/6/2019 18:34

Stay short.

[justiceforthemany] 15/6/2019 17:42

DAILY MAIL - Investment Extra
Popular Shares - Saga

It has been a pretty gloomy run for retirement firm Saga and its army of 180,000 retail investors.

Floated for £2.1billion in 2014, it has failed to wow investors and is now worth just £414million.

Shares have tanked from a launch price of 185p to 36.93p – a brutal 80 per cent drop.

Chief executive Lance Batchelor paid the price and is stepping down in January.

But look behind the terrible headlines and the £391million debt pile and there could be a good business here.

Saga's over-50s market is made up of affluent people, and it is launching a new membership scheme.

Next month it takes delivery of a new cruise ship, along with a second vessel in 2020.

Cruising is expected to grow by 22.5 per cent over the next five years according to data firm Mintel, much faster than the overall holiday market.

In insurance, Saga has introduced a pioneering policy where prices stay the same for three years, meaning loyal customers are not ripped off.

As the firm has said, there will be a short, sharp hit to profits but in the long run it could be a popular driver of business.

So with shares now so low and new blood poised to take charge, this could just be the right time to buy in.

[ignoble] 15/6/2019 17:30

Article in today's Daily Mail Business Section...
Worth a read

[justiceforthemany] 15/6/2019 11:01

70% drop since profit warning. At this rate most of the board will be booted out on Wednesday at the AGM.

[diku] 15/6/2019 10:28

6 Independent non executive Directors...what exactly do they do?...

[justiceforthemany] 14/6/2019 19:15

x3 one million share trades listed as 'buys' at 1636 but these were actually sells given the 10% drop today - no doubt FTSE350 trackers still dumping. 2x usual volume. Apparently for every seller there's a buyer?

[nav_mike] 14/6/2019 16:41

....Or a sell that was being worked all during the day - could be either

[sunnybeachboy] 14/6/2019 16:30

Nice buy 500,000@36.64p just before the bell

[boraki] 14/6/2019 16:19

I just need thomas cook to go back up, and then I will be back in.

:-(

[spob] 14/6/2019 16:14

Changes take effect from Mon, 24 June

[boraki] 14/6/2019 16:08

Mmmm ,,not good

[nav_mike] 14/6/2019 15:53

IMHO its either the tracker funds bailing, or Standard Life are continuing to exit their sizeable position

Looking at SETS, the supply of sell orders is absolutely relentless

[yump] 14/6/2019 15:49

When the deramping stops, stop selling

[buywell3] 14/6/2019 15:47

SAGA 10% down in just one day

Is no cause for hip hip hooray

The boss has gone and done a runner

Will the next one arrive by summer ?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/6/2019 15:39

?

I'm looking at it as a multiple - as with PE ratio. But instead of just share price (equity), I am looking at equity plus debt - a more comprehensive view and which reflects the true position rather than just equity. Anyone can go and buy earnings - but with what, equity or debt or both? That is what enterprise value reflects.

Not sure why you refer to writing down debt in a single year.

Anyway, rest assured I won't be buying these.