Saga Share Discussion Threads

[f1araway] 21/12/2017 10:56

I'm all of a sweat, the price is up 1.1p......

[123trev] 20/12/2017 10:46

How can these so called experts differ so widely it’s like they have a vested interest in the stock! Meanwhile the trading range is maintained probably for that dividend perhaps!

[justiceforthemany] 20/12/2017 10:42

Britons' appetite for holidays will continue to rise despite Brexit, over-50s travel and insurance company Saga has said, as it forecast that profits in its travel division will increase fivefold in the next five years.

Saga, which sells packaged holidays and cruises to more than 250,000 over-50s each year, said in its preliminary statement that it had set itself a fresh target to grow profits in its travel arm "four to five times" by 2021.

The company said that Britain's vote to leave the EU had not hit holiday demand, with travel reservations for 2018 already up 8pc on the previous year and profits in its travel business up 10.4pc in the year to January 31.

[mj19] 19/12/2017 21:46

Saga share price subdued as RBC abandons bullish stance on groupAnalysts now less positive on the company's motor broking business Tsveta Zikolovaby Tsveta ZikolovaTuesday, 19 Dec 2017, 13:16 GMTSaga share price subdued as RBC abandons bullish stance on group Shares in Saga (LON:SAGA) have slipped marginally into the red, underperforming the broader market, as RBC Capital Markets lowered its stance on the cruises-to-insurance group for the over-50s. The move followed the mid-cap company's profit warning earlier this month.As of 12:54 GMT, Saga's share price had lost 0.16 percent to 125.20p, underperforming the FTSE 250 which has climbed into positive territory and currently stands 0.52 percent higher at 20,360.23 points. The group's shares have given up more than 34 percent of their value over the past year, as compared with a more than 14-percent gain in the mid-cap index.RBC lowers stance on SagaRBC Capital Markets lowered its stance on Saga from 'outperform' to 'sector perform' today, slashing its price target on the shares from 250p to 135p, noting that it was now less positive on the lifestyle group's motor broking business."Our previous buy case was centred on footprint expansion and margin improvement in the broking segment, which we now do not expect Saga to achieve in the near term," the analysts explained, as quoted by WebFG News. "Further, the pricing structure of the broking business is less attractive than we previously thought."The analysts further explained that the lifestyle group's retail business operates on a spread basis so its revenue was affected by pricing from its underwriting panel, and external competitive pricing pressures, while its peers' revenue "is more resilient as it is based on a percentage of premiums or fixed fee, so there is less need to sacrifice revenue for volume".The analysts nevertheless noted that the longer-term opportunity for Saga was positive as the UK has an ageing demographic.Other analysts on SagaThe nine analysts offering 12-month price targets for Saga for the Financial Times have a median target of 180.00p on the shares, with a high estimate of 250.00p and a low estimate of 135.00p. As of December 16, the consensus forecast amongst nine polled investment analysts covering the blue-chip group has it that the company will outperform the market. As of 13:19 GMT, Tuesday, 19 December, Saga PLC share price is 124.40p.

[123trev] 19/12/2017 10:44

You may have a point but that doesn’t explain the massive fall here and the lack of any bounce in a share that is massively oversold and all these AT trades keeping this in a certain range and did that trading statement really warrant all this?

[123trev] 19/12/2017 08:14

What the hell is going on here?

[glavey] 17/12/2017 01:29

"very very oversold", soon to be 'very, very, very oversold'

Who's wearing shorts in public in this weather?

[justiceforthemany] 16/12/2017 22:34

Shorts are minimal and according to FCA <0.5%. It is just very very oversold on every technical level.

[stewart64] 16/12/2017 17:19

Tbf I don't know whether the counterparty to the retail buying surplus is institutional dumping or short selling. This 90% of the time that the fallen stock has several more skeletons in the cupboard is just as unsubstantiated. However, if it happens to be not the case ( given your 10% odds that's a big if) then Management need to nip these beliefs in the bud. An affirmation of the next dividend would be a good place to start. Should have been done with the original profit warning.

[bend1pa] 16/12/2017 12:38

No reporting of any big build up of short positions here. I'm guessing it's insiders and some institutions unwinding with knowledge of bad news in the pipeline. Whenever I see this kind of share price behaviour, 90% of the time it results in bad news ahead and a slashed or passed up div, so be warned.

[masurenguy] 16/12/2017 12:31

I can't see any indication that there is "a large short position building up" on Saga.



Would you care to post your evidence substantiating your claim ?

[stewart64] 16/12/2017 10:09

Thought it might have rallied to the 127 area by close. There is such a large short position building up of several million shares a day that I would have thought a few of those would have unwound to be first in the queue, clearly not. Does appear by the chart that they are operating on diminishing returns as the bottom flattens out. Obviously, they must see scope for a further down leg to a quid, and the risk of a +10% flash rise is worth the risk.

[diku] 15/12/2017 22:34

Surely CEO has a good salary package with bonuses & expenses paid!...think if it gets to 100p a larger US leisure company will pounce...wonder if they might even be looking in already...

[justiceforthemany] 15/12/2017 17:55

Directors and CEO would not have spent >£100K of their money on shares if a placing was on the way.

[123trev] 15/12/2017 15:10

Is the move in the other direction happening now?

[123trev] 15/12/2017 14:40

call me crazy but this trading pattern is like watching an aim stock before the placing,lol.

[f1araway] 15/12/2017 13:59

stewart64Thanks for that,StewartB

[srpactive] 15/12/2017 11:14

I await a showing of a good support, dyor.

[justiceforthemany] 14/12/2017 22:58

Saga was on the rise this morning after a public vote of confidence from its finance director, Jonathan Hill.
hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/saga-gets-a-boost-of-confidence-rgm88pr3k

[stephen2010] 14/12/2017 22:15

ALBA currently trading at 0.39p target price 6p making a nice 15 bagger. Please read the following:

MARKET CAP PUZZLE
❖ Alba (market cap £8.4m) is in a resources neighbourhood populated with listed
companies with much enhanced market capitalisations, such as UKOG.L (£134m) and
JAY.L (£172m). With either shared project interests or adjacent tenements to these
companies, Alba should trade at a much higher valuation than its current token value.
Like Bluejay, Alba owns 100% of its ilmenite project. Direct comparisons with UKOG
are also instructive. While both companies own other projects, UKOG’s 49.9% of Horse
Hill Developments Limited (HHDL), when compared to Alba’s 18.1% means that Alba
has approximately one third of the value of Horse Hill compared to UKOG but only
about 7% of the market capitalisation. Once the market recognises these disparities,
the room for growth in Alba’s share price is undeniable.

VALUATION RATIONALE - Our valuation in this First Equity Limited initiation note
uses a risked valuation approach for Alba’s two main projects, at Horse Hill and TBS. The
Horse Hill licences are valued using independent published technical data from
Schlumberger, Xodus and Nutech on the oil potential of the licences, along with our own
assumptions on recovery rates, oil discovery value, resource and development risks
factors. From this a risked value of $127m net to Alba on a ‘Base Case’ basis is derived
for Horse Hill.

Given the similar geology and economic potential of both TBS and Dundas, we have
adopted a risked closeology valuation approach, by computing an NPV for Dundas of
$223m and then applying a three-tiered risked probability calculation to arrive at a value
of $54.7m for TBS. Once Alba announce its JORC resource and exploration target at TBS
and Bluejay its Feasibility Study results, this number is likely to be revised upwards very
rapidly, possibly up to $200m, representing up to 7p per share in additional shareholder
value.

We compute a valuation of $185m (£139m) for Alba, equating to 6.0p per share, of which
4.1p is attributed to the stake in Horse Hill, 1.8p for TBS. Given this analysis and wealth
of valuation catalysts anticipated across the project portfolio in the coming months, we
recommend the shares as a ‘BUY, with a Target Price of 6.0p, representing a potential
15 times plus uplift from the current share price.

[f1araway] 14/12/2017 21:13

I don't have access to level 2 but it seems to me that there have been many more buys than sells each day since the plunge and apart from the day that it went up a, "halfpenny" it's been quite depressing.

[justiceforthemany] 14/12/2017 20:52

Gross annual profit is £450M. Those of you talking down the balance sheet it is no worse than it was 6 months ago when it was trading around 215p or when it floated 3 years ago. In fact net assets are better now at £1.2Bn. As for the intangibles/goodwill you can't just write them all off but if you did you get -£300M. This figure is far better than AA for example which (excluding intangibles) comes to -£3.2Bn. £100K CEO buy, other director buys and commitment to a progressive dividend also can not be ignored. P/E of 9 and Dividend >7.3% also can't be dismissed.

[dr biotech] 14/12/2017 20:12

Debt was largely refinanced last year and matures 2024. So not a big issue for some time.