Ryanair Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 05/8/2019 10:01

Their 19/20 guidance is predicted on leaving with a deal, Is it surprising markets are now beginning to factor in the possibility of no deal?.

[time_traveller] 05/8/2019 09:52

Peanuts, and what do you expect from the French (who have selective hearing when it comes to state aid and protection of their own industry). Anyway, a disappointing share price reaction to in line results, when general expectations were for a miss. But not all together unexpected, with the macro political and economic situation pushing us through support at €10.

[grupo] 04/8/2019 22:35

Ryanair has to return EUR 8.5m illegal state aid: EU — filed under: Headline, airlines, Competition Ryanair has to return EUR 8.5m illegal state aid: EU Ryanair - Photo Curren (BRUSSELS) - France must recover EUR 8.5 million of illegal state aid made to Ryanair, the EU Commission said Friday, as regional marketing agreements at the airport of Montpellier are illegal under EU state aid rules. The Commission's investigation showed certain payments by the French local authorities in favour of Ryanair to promote Montpellier airport gave Ryanair "an unfair and selective advantage over its competitors and caused harm to other regions and other regional airports," according to Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager: "This is illegal under EU State aid rules. France must now recover the illegal State aid." Montpellier airport is a regional airport located in the French region of Occitanie. The airport served nearly 1.9 million passengers in 2018. Ryanair was present at the airport until April 2019. Following a complaint by one of Ryanair's competitors, the Commission opened in July 2018 an in-depth investigation into marketing agreements between the Association for the Promotion of Touristic and Economic Flows (Association de Promotion des Flux Touristiques et Economiques, "APFTE") and Ryanair and its subsidiary AMS. Between 2010 and 2017, APFTE concluded various marketing agreements with Ryanair and AMS, under which the airline and its subsidiary received payments worth around €8.5 million in exchange for promoting Montpellier and the surrounding area as a touristic destination on Ryanair's website. The Commission's investigation revealed that: The agreements with Ryanair were financed through State resources and were attributable to the State.APFTE is an association unrelated to the airport operator, funded almost entirely by regional and local French public entities. These public entities closely control the use of the association's budget. The payments in favour of Ryanair on the basis of the marketing agreements did not correspond to effective marketing needs of APFTE but only served as an incentive for Ryanair to maintain its operations at Montpellier airport. APFTE either concluded the agreements directly with Ryanair and AMS and not with other airlines or organised public tenders that were biased towards Ryanair. On this basis, the EU executive has found that the marketing agreements gave an undue and selective advantage to Ryanair over its competitors. The Commission therefore concluded that the agreements amounted to illegal and incompatible aid under EU State aid rules and that the advantage must be recovered. EU State aid rules require that incompatible State aid be recovered in order to remove the distortion of competition created by the aid. There are no fines under EU State aid rules and recovery does not penalise the company in question. What it does it to simply restore equal treatment with other companies. France now has to recover the illegal State aid amounting to around €8.5 million from Ryanair. The non-confidential version of the decision will be made available under the case number SA.47867 in the State Aid Register on the Commission's competition website once any confidentiality issues have been resolved.

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2019 12:18

Thanks for the view, pretty sure under 9 may be available. Under 8?, May be.

[gimmethefax] 01/8/2019 11:55

Indeed. I am looking to add but holding out to see how low this will go over the next few months. I would be delighted to buy at 7.5-8. Keep in mind this airline will only be more and more dominant as smaller airlines fail.

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2019 11:05

Well in that case he's the cnt who saved a loss making micro airline and transformed it in One of Europe's most successful. I'm interested in financials, not his personality. Emotion and investing is usually a quick way to lose money.

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2019 09:47

My idea here is to add a nice chunk toward maximum pessimism, much easier said than done admittedly. I thought 7.50-8.50 very approx - those numbers could be way off. If anyone has any thoughts on that would be interested to hear, thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 16:54

Is that connected to the Max situation impeding 2020 growth plans?, they have already highlighted base closure over winter 19/20. However would agree, 500 less pilots does not add up, or even close.

[sogoesit] 31/7/2019 16:03

Source of story: htTps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanair-tells-workers-up-to-900-jobs-could-be-at-risk-135621948.html

[spob] 31/7/2019 15:01

maybe Ryanair is playing pschological games with the pilots because they are worried about possible future strike action given what is happening at British Airways

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 14:51

He's also said this is not the time for anyone (else) to buy RYA shares, think that was slightly tongue in cheek and in reference to the RYA buy back. However, he timed his last personal sale of RYA shares very nicely and I don't see him buying any atm.

[sponges] 31/7/2019 14:46

O'Really has said he is down 41% because of Brexit ! O really ?

[montyhedge] 31/7/2019 14:08

500 to many pilots they said, BA pilots voted for strike action, get these Ryanair pilots over to BA.

[sponges] 31/7/2019 14:06

Big jobs cuts on way apparently

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2019 10:14

Under 9 on a no deal is my best guess - this is not a political point before anyone shouts, it's just what I see happening on this eventuality.

[cumnor] 29/7/2019 09:56

With profits likely to evaporate over the next couple of quarters, a Summer correction on the DOW imminent and Brexit uncertainty will wait till these get to 6-7 Euros (even then huge mrkt cap) before excess airline capacity clear out is complete and RYA starts to capitalize on its near monopoly position.

[montyhedge] 16/7/2019 14:22

737 Max when back I can't see until January 2020, one analyst said it will be safer than sitting in your living room.

[essentialinvestor] 16/7/2019 14:20

If you are convinced of that. Yes. I'm not adding here atm, but might be wrong.

[montyhedge] 16/7/2019 14:18

There will be a deal, Boris and Hunt want one, so does the EU. Airlines the place to be.

[essentialinvestor] 16/7/2019 14:13

Monty, from a business perspective it's pretty compelling as they are being specially adapted, so these aircraft should increase their cost leadership. They have to get back off the ground first!. You can't get away from Brexit short term, and RYA guidance is partly predicated on leaving with a deal. If no deal then it might get a little ugly for a few months share price wise - just a guess on my part Only.

[montyhedge] 16/7/2019 14:07

Won't be called the Max, Ryanair painting the word Max out. 58 on order, good luck with that, O'Leary.

[time_traveller] 16/7/2019 11:32

I hear consensus is around Jan to Feb for the first ones, with half on strength by summer 2020 barring further hiccups

[essentialinvestor] 15/7/2019 20:13

Think what's more relevant is it now looks like 2020 before the MAX returns.