Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 06/3/2019 14:09

Thanks for the views guys, appreciated.

Will keep my small position and review next year.

Even though I strongly disagree with the position in gold miners.

[bpdon] 06/3/2019 14:06

I'm of a similar view to the other posters. In the immediate aftermath of the 08/09 crisis (price at start of 2008 to end of 2010), Ruffer almost doubled in value because the proverbial really hit the fan. Even other safe haven trusts such as CGT, which also faired very well in the crash, only returned circa half of what Ruffer achieved over the above time frame.  

But, Ruffer has certainly dined out on its 08/11 success for too long - the performance from 2012 through to today has been really poor (unless you were trading in and out). That is unquestionably a frustration for an IT that has a higher TER. 

Regarding the "no hiding place" comment, I think it's a reference to every single risk asset, even conservative ones, being vulnerable. The next paragraph goes onto say that it costs 3% per annum to insure against +15% drops in the market. With that level of overhead, it becomes very difficult for Ruffer to outperform when its portfolio is heavily weighted to safety and markets are flatlining or trending as they have for the last few years. 

As such, I see Ruffer as a matter of timing - I find it hard to believe they won't be right eventually. I suspect investors rebalance in the direction of Ruffer if/when they feel the risk of the wheels really coming off is increasing - I certainly did in Q4 last year (increased up to 10% of my portfolio).  I also hold PNL and CGT.

[jonwig] 06/3/2019 13:55

"No hiding place" - that's because all assets are correlated: bonds, equities, ... Gold is uncorrelated, though, in theory. And maybe index-linked US/UK sovereigns. What they are promising is returns above cash.

I hold a few of these, and I'm not happy to. But my suspicious self tells me selling would be at exactly the wrong time!

[essentialinvestor] 06/3/2019 13:34

I notice PNL as with RICA, have pared back their already modest equity exposure.

[steve c1] 06/3/2019 13:31

Also a long term holder and done ok. Where is a safe place? PNL, CGT, HGT or RCP. I hold all these and am hoping that during the next crisis the will hold their own.

[slicethepie] 06/3/2019 13:18

Suspect they mean bonds etc will not be a safe haven as likely environment will see rising rates / inflation.

[essentialinvestor] 06/3/2019 12:47

I hold some, so aware of the historical context.

What I'm questioning is the comment that with the next crisis ...there will
be no hiding place.

Unless I've misunderstood that statement.

[essentialinvestor] 06/3/2019 12:00

Given the annual fees and negligible yield,
is it not better to keep the money in cash?.

Would be interested in any different views?.

The other aspect that strikes me is the move in to gold shares..
as a supercharged play on gold..

If the gold price weakness that may prove extremely costly.

It's not a low risk strategy. Holding physical (PHGP etc) which can be liquidated
in an instant gives immediate liquidity.

[bpdon] 06/3/2019 10:54

hxxp://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/181982/is-ruffer-now-a-buying-opportunity-for-defensive-investors.aspx

[essentialinvestor] 06/3/2019 08:56

So they are saying ...no hiding place come the next crisis.
And charging arguably a fat annual fee.

I'm not sure I see a compelling case for holding?.

[slicethepie] 05/3/2019 08:44

Pretty good assessment of reasons for poor performance. Good to see one of the fms buy a few shares but why does Steve Russell only own 6450, he is the longest standing fm on the fund!

[bpdon] 05/3/2019 06:22

Heres the link to the full doc: hxxps://www.ruffer.co.uk/disclaimer?d=4&u=cmsfiles/reports/RIC/KeyDocuments/RIC-interim-report-Dec2018.pdf

[pvb] 05/3/2019 02:00

Half yearly report, with explanations and including a statement by the chairman:

[edwardt] 25/2/2019 11:47

this is getting interesting at these levels - they should be buying back stock to defend it...

[getscenic] 12/2/2019 13:28

Shame the share price has not been so stable, down 19% of 26 week period.

[jimcar] 12/2/2019 09:20

I think you are right. Their equities, Japanese + others, seem to be cyclical/value which will tend to broadly move in line with markets.


CGT's equities seem to be mainly property and infrastructure which have been less volatile and so the NAV has been more stable. It seems to make more sense for what is promoted as a defensive/capital preservation fund. PNL's equities are high quality and also seem to have been reasonably stable.

[jonwig] 11/2/2019 20:15

January monthly report:



Are Japan equities their main problem? (Though I don't much like their top 10 equities mix.) 60% of the fund is what I'd call very defensive, including the put option. perhaps 2018 Q4 was an aberration?

[topvest] 09/1/2019 21:48

Absolutely agree. Defensives and quality is where to be. Well actually, cash is the best place to be but I'm only 25% there!

[edwardt] 09/1/2019 19:13

Owning cyclical equities at this end of the business cycle is akin to eating bananas four weeks past their sell buy date. No matter how cheap they look , it is not a pleasant experience.

[pvb] 08/1/2019 20:56

"That being said, we have failed in the last 12 months to deliver on Ruffer’s raison d’être: namely to protect capital and deliver positive returns regardless of the direction of markets. That is disappointing and frustrating to us; more importantly it has been costly to our shareholders."

[jonwig] 08/1/2019 20:26

The December investment report:



It looks like performance was not as bad as first sight, because the 'protections' weren't revaluated until after end-Dec.

So whilst asset performance may prove to have been OK, the fact that it's thrown up a discount isn't pretty. Will that get reversed in a hurry? I suspect not.

[pvb] 07/1/2019 23:50

Dear oh dear! My 'ordinary' share holdings seem to be doing better than this.

[jonwig] 07/1/2019 18:52

Discount about 7% - a strange reversal of fortune. I thought the equity holdings were supposed to be hedged with a large put option.

Perhaps they will have something material to say with the next factsheet?

[bpdon] 03/1/2019 15:43

@Edwardt, its nearer 40% but yup that's a fair point.

RICA is now trading at its biggest ever discount (I think) and the share price is also not a million miles away from its biggest ever draw down. With share price performance (circa -14%) since last summer not hugely better than some of the main indices, I can understand why holders would be falling out of love with the trust.

However, in the current climate, I find it even harder to disagree with the defensive philosophies in the portfolios construction. I decided to double my RICA holding today with cash released last autumn.