Rua Life Sciences Share Discussion Threads

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 17:10

When they are cleared btw, this should rise significantly. It reminds me of Jupiter selling Angle and driving the price below 40p.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 17:03

Amati now down to 3.59% (or 795,586 shares worth £338k at today's price).

They last notified at 4.83% so a decent chunk sold.

Originally held 8.07% so more than half way through.

Anyone with a spare £338k fancy taking them out?

[edmonda] 27/5/2022 15:41

Trading update – the pandemic clouds disperse (new research report from Equity Development)

RUA Life Sciences’ trading update illustrated both a recovery from the challenges of the pandemic faced by medical device companies which translated into increased revenues at RUA Medical Devices and increased investment in its vascular and heart valve products.

RUA’s cash balance has decreased from £6,294k at the end of FY 2021 to £2,963k a year later but this was much higher than our previous FY 2022 estimate and we have aligned with the higher YE 2022 cash position in RUA’s trading update.

While the delay to the launch of RUA Vascular’s products in the US and EU to 2025 may disappoint some, the generation of data that establishes the safety and efficacy of Elast-Eon as a graft sealant has a number of competitive advantages.

Our valuation has been updated for RUA’s trading statement with the only change reflecting the cash consumption. This modestly decreased our valuation to £121.0m or 545p per share from £122.9m or 554p per share.

Link to research report:

[early not wrong] 27/5/2022 15:19

What i'd really like to know is whether or not this clinical trial for the grafts proves Elasteon as a sealant in such devices and therefore subsequent launches would not need to go through clinical trials - that is what i have been assuming has taken the time, as other than that 'noel' tech, the substantial equivalence would have been possible. Any thoughts?

[bones] 27/5/2022 15:04

For information, Equity Development update:

[early not wrong] 27/5/2022 11:46

So Cenkos did a good job getting the rise yesterday to neutralise the announcement today. Not much new, but no further bad news. I'd see this as the bottom, darkest hour, nadir, capitulation etc.

Some of the projections in terms of size and market penetration look really interesting. Quite a lot that needs to happen behind the scenes but certainly gold in the hills.

The new recruits and new board personnel look to be the driving force behind this business, they certainly seem to be stamping their authority.

I thought they said very little about heart valve project. I think there's more to come on that specifically this year and they will announce when they can.

There are a number of ways they could raise cash. I see this as a warrant with an unknown subscription price but one that you will likely want to exercise in the next two years.

I'd really like to see some free warrants issued to shareholders so that the patient can be rewarded into future upside with no real downside. It would certainly be a good way to keep shareholders on side whilst raising some cash. Perhaps an annual issue over the next three years would be good governance.

[bones] 27/5/2022 11:45

Sounds likely Langland. Tax refunds for R&D are encouraged by the government and I have a vague recollection the refund or offset is at a multiplier of 1.3 x investment or maybe more? I would have to check the rules.

[langland] 27/5/2022 11:37

On the subject of cash requirements etc I would have thought that the company is eligible for a R and D tax credit. In last year's final results a figure of 540k was mentioned. I would have thought a higher figure is probably warranted for the year just ended. This needs further investigation but, if RUA is eligible, cash should be received a few months after audited accounts.

[harrogate] 27/5/2022 10:42

Let's see then if we get any significant director buys at this steal of a price. Also interesting to see if the options get cancelled and rebased.

[herschel k] 27/5/2022 10:36

Well, I have added this morning.

Neither trades are showing up, but I got a fair few at 40p and some at 43p - had to go to limit orders as couldn't buy at best price in the market, certainly not for the number I wanted given the inelastic nature of this share.

H

Edit: LOL - that 32,896 is my purchase from earlier - showing as a sell......standard. :)

[obiterdicta] 27/5/2022 10:14

Thank you langland and SK, reassuring. OD

[langland] 27/5/2022 10:12

We must also not forget that the grafts performed positively as a sealant in the animal trials. In addition, we have about 18 years as a sealant on electrical leads with no degradation. So, it is not as if elasteon is a complete unknown.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 09:36

obiterdicta, I doubt it very much because the RNS states re the Q-submission discussions that have taken place with the FDA "to determine the regulatory path to approval" and that "During these discussions, the additional data requirements for a future 510(k) submission were agreed"

[harrogate] 27/5/2022 09:35

But you are making the assumption that all is now well and suddenly after over 20 years of abject failure they know what they are doing and that all is as they now say. For me that is a massive leap of faith

[semper vigilans] 27/5/2022 09:28

Ditto but it’s now a longer term investment than first I imagined.

[obiterdicta] 27/5/2022 09:28

SK - is there any chance that the FDA will require longer proof of safety and efficacy with the trial lasting years?

[toffeeman] 27/5/2022 09:13

My bad buy yesterday - ugh

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 09:10

Also the graft sealant clinical trial will be open label (not placebo controlled, double blinded, like a drug trial). We know that first man in is expected this year (good news that I was not certain to hear today). Efficacy data on the trial can therefore start coming out in early Q1 2023.

I would therefore expect ongoing updates in 2023 about the progress of the trial and that the graft is working. This is not therefore a classic case of going away in 2022 and coming back in 2024 when the final data is announced. Anyone trying to do that will almost certainly miss the boat, because whether the graft is working in man in trials will be known much sooner than that.

This is a very, very big opportunity that dwarfs the current market cap. The current market cap is a steal at £8m including within that £2.9m year end cash and £1.6m of revenues, when within a year the data will be coming out for a market size opportunity of $1bn per year (minimum 10% expected). The current price is a steal. You could justify the current market cap just on the existing revenues. Then we have the graft opportunity above and also the possibility of a heart deal.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 08:55

Harrogate, I think the market is doing the classic case of over dramatising an already known fact.

When you thought about RUA in the past week, did you seriously believe that there would be a major product launch in 2022? Despite the company already having said months ago that there is no such possibility and that human trials would be required?

Everything said today about timelines, is in line with expectations, and in line with the most favourable expectations that could have been said in the circumstances.

So the underlying message in today's rns is not that the product launch has been put back 3 years. The share price was 140p+ when that issue / delay was identified and it has rightly fallen since. No, the message in today's RNS is that 510k continues to be the correct route at the FDA (which is good) and that the likely timelines are well within the range of expectations that could have been in place for human trials.

Anyone selling today because they think there is now suddenly a 3 year delay seriously misread the clear message set out in the past few months.

[harrogate] 27/5/2022 08:32

I think you guys are being way too positive here. I hope I am wrong. The underlying message in the RNS is that a lot of the people we had were not up to the job and we hope the new guys are better. There has been no progress on increasing licence fees or sales of products, we have spent money on kit we won't need for 2.5 years and our major product launch has effectively been put back 3 years. If the heart valve IP isn't enough to attract some proper commercial interest very soon I think we are in a world of pain. Turns out AOR 2.0 isn't that different from AOR1.0

[bones] 27/5/2022 08:29

Small investors are selling - presumably since the company did not announce they were being taken over by Google (or something!).

What they fail to see is that the market currently values this business at £9M in complete and whole total……

For a company with the amount of proven IP it owns and the sheer potential of its pipeline, that is something to be considered and does not reflect that the company can also raise future funding by licensing or selling some of its technologies, such as the heart valve. That much was talked about in previous company presentations.

[langland] 27/5/2022 08:24

Fair comments, SK. Even if they are forced to do a placing I very much doubt it would be done at current levels or close. Company has sufficient cash for now and I would not be surprised if they are able to do a deal or 2 down the road. If there is such interest in the potential new products, then some sort of quasi equity could come from those sources.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 08:17

The need for a cash raise to do a trial has been known for months as has the likely time period. It is priced in hence the fall from 140p-170p to 40p or so. It definitely is though at the better end of what I was expecting in terms of likely costs and timescale and good to see 510k is still likely route, plus cash levels and revenues looking better than expected too.

[cocker] 27/5/2022 08:13

Well Bill can certainly talk the talk , shame he & the company fails in the latter.