Rua Life Sciences Share Discussion Threads

[obiterdicta] 27/5/2022 09:28

SK - is there any chance that the FDA will require longer proof of safety and efficacy with the trial lasting years?

[toffeeman] 27/5/2022 09:13

My bad buy yesterday - ugh

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 09:10

Also the graft sealant clinical trial will be open label (not placebo controlled, double blinded, like a drug trial). We know that first man in is expected this year (good news that I was not certain to hear today). Efficacy data on the trial can therefore start coming out in early Q1 2023.

I would therefore expect ongoing updates in 2023 about the progress of the trial and that the graft is working. This is not therefore a classic case of going away in 2022 and coming back in 2024 when the final data is announced. Anyone trying to do that will almost certainly miss the boat, because whether the graft is working in man in trials will be known much sooner than that.

This is a very, very big opportunity that dwarfs the current market cap. The current market cap is a steal at £8m including within that £2.9m year end cash and £1.6m of revenues, when within a year the data will be coming out for a market size opportunity of $1bn per year (minimum 10% expected). The current price is a steal. You could justify the current market cap just on the existing revenues. Then we have the graft opportunity above and also the possibility of a heart deal.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 08:55

Harrogate, I think the market is doing the classic case of over dramatising an already known fact.

When you thought about RUA in the past week, did you seriously believe that there would be a major product launch in 2022? Despite the company already having said months ago that there is no such possibility and that human trials would be required?

Everything said today about timelines, is in line with expectations, and in line with the most favourable expectations that could have been said in the circumstances.

So the underlying message in today's rns is not that the product launch has been put back 3 years. The share price was 140p+ when that issue / delay was identified and it has rightly fallen since. No, the message in today's RNS is that 510k continues to be the correct route at the FDA (which is good) and that the likely timelines are well within the range of expectations that could have been in place for human trials.

Anyone selling today because they think there is now suddenly a 3 year delay seriously misread the clear message set out in the past few months.

[harrogate] 27/5/2022 08:32

I think you guys are being way too positive here. I hope I am wrong. The underlying message in the RNS is that a lot of the people we had were not up to the job and we hope the new guys are better. There has been no progress on increasing licence fees or sales of products, we have spent money on kit we won't need for 2.5 years and our major product launch has effectively been put back 3 years. If the heart valve IP isn't enough to attract some proper commercial interest very soon I think we are in a world of pain. Turns out AOR 2.0 isn't that different from AOR1.0

[bones] 27/5/2022 08:29

Small investors are selling - presumably since the company did not announce they were being taken over by Google (or something!).

What they fail to see is that the market currently values this business at £9M in complete and whole total……

For a company with the amount of proven IP it owns and the sheer potential of its pipeline, that is something to be considered and does not reflect that the company can also raise future funding by licensing or selling some of its technologies, such as the heart valve. That much was talked about in previous company presentations.

[langland] 27/5/2022 08:24

Fair comments, SK. Even if they are forced to do a placing I very much doubt it would be done at current levels or close. Company has sufficient cash for now and I would not be surprised if they are able to do a deal or 2 down the road. If there is such interest in the potential new products, then some sort of quasi equity could come from those sources.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 08:17

The need for a cash raise to do a trial has been known for months as has the likely time period. It is priced in hence the fall from 140p-170p to 40p or so. It definitely is though at the better end of what I was expecting in terms of likely costs and timescale and good to see 510k is still likely route, plus cash levels and revenues looking better than expected too.

[cocker] 27/5/2022 08:13

Well Bill can certainly talk the talk , shame he & the company fails in the latter.

[the_real_mr_big] 27/5/2022 08:05

Almost certain a cash raise will be needed, but their current cash position is better than I expected. Revenue growth over the last 2 years is pretty impressive, innit?

This time in 2025, Rodney.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 08:00

Revenues are up, which is good. Yes I would expect at some point more cash is needed, but they have revenues of £1.6m and cash of £2.9m at year end with capital expenditure forming a large amount of expenditure last year that will not recur. So no need for any panic over funds. I would envisage trial structure being settled in q3 and then a placing to cover the trial costs, which given the timelines above will not be massive, even if obviously they will be significant, but which will be within RUA’s capacity to raise.

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 07:56

Also good to see that they are sorting out production to have a fast ramp up. Particularly interested to see that they are targeting a minimum 10% of the $1bn annual market size. To be at these share price levels just 1 trial away from the same - rua is very undervalued.

[amt] 27/5/2022 07:54

Will they need more cash and if so at what price ?

[sicilian_kan] 27/5/2022 07:53

Rua 510k timetable looks very favourable compared to what it could have been and good to see 510k expected to be the path. FDA decision on trial structure in Q3. Trial starts Q4. Say 12 months to complete end 2023, 3-6 months to collate days and lodge FDA application, 6-9 months for fda to consider 510k approval (targeting late 2024) and first sales in 2025.

[bones] 26/5/2022 14:36

Looks like they got 2 x 50k away this morning (40 and 41.25). Wouldn’t be surprised to see more big sales go through later after today’s buying activity.

[bones] 26/5/2022 11:57

Hopefully a bit more buying action will slowly work loose the Amati overhang (assuming they are going all the way to zero).

[toffeeman] 26/5/2022 10:08

Trying to get something back from RUA - my small buy showing as a sell

[semper vigilans] 26/5/2022 09:53

Things normally go down when I buy.

[early not wrong] 26/5/2022 09:46

Christ, it actually goes up.

[aykon] 24/5/2022 17:03

Thanks Bones. I had not appreciated from your previous posting that you had contacted them. Let’s hope that they are doing what we presume and provide some much needed good news on progress!

[bones] 24/5/2022 16:35

Aykon, I did that a month or more ago but was advised it takes time to get the final quarter royalty numbers from all the licensees worldwide. Note last year on May 10th they still referred to some outstanding data.

On top of that, my guess is there is plenty going on around the Vascular/FDA talks and possibly other discussions/negotiations (recall the numerous NDA’s out there). Possibly they want to finalise or reach a point of certainty in some matters to maximise the value of information to be given to market.

I can only speculate but that seems likely to me. Not easy to advise about things when in mid-negotiation!

Let’s hope whatever is under discussion leads to good outcomes!

[aykon] 24/5/2022 16:21

Anyone contacted the company regarding a delayed trading update? Historically the trading update for the year end has been around 12-14 May!

[aykon] 24/5/2022 16:21

Anyone contacted the company regarding a delayed trading update? Historically the trading update for the year end has been around 12-14 May!

[parsons4] 20/5/2022 09:00

This company has now gone off the radar, let's not forget the array of new products that will EVENTUALLY come to the market. Then a £9m market cap will look ridiculous. Topped up a few days ago, shares have now fallen even further !!!