Royal Mail Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 31/3/2021 09:12

Moorsie231 Mar '21 - 09:06 - 12205 of 12205
0 1 0
HOLTS rather that is what happens when people vote for something that was not clearly outlined and on the table. Leaving g a union and expecting everything to be the same is peak naivety or peak mis selling. Take your pick
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Correct. Every time we are confronted with a further consequence of the disaster that is Brexit there will be a Brexiteer to claim that this is down to the EU, or poor negotiation.

No: it's down to Brexit. Time to eat it up and own it for the dog's breakfast that it will prove to be for many years, and also, tragically, for our children.

[moorsie2] 31/3/2021 09:06

HOLTS rather that is what happens when people vote for something that was not clearly outlined and on the table. Leaving g a union and expecting everything to be the same is peak naivety or peak mis selling. Take your pick

[holts] 31/3/2021 08:44

The EUs requirement for endless paperwork , meekly agreed to by our negotiators , is going to reduce overseas despatches to Europe , this what happens when you have the wrong people doing the job .

[18bells] 30/3/2021 20:54

Any idea what the new divi policy could be?

[moorsie2] 30/3/2021 14:54

I get the feeling (very strongly) from the analysts presentation that GLS is being positioned for a IPO probably on a European bourse

This would greatly enhance shareholder value...

[moorsie2] 30/3/2021 07:20

Great update!

Covered
- special dividend of 10p
- New dividend policy from May
- Very strong growth projections for GLS
- Strong cash flow projections from GLS

- Update call pm

Time for this to rerate to 600p

[moorsie2] 29/3/2021 20:25

Let's see what the pre close statement says tomorrow....

Looking for guidance on

- profit number
- cash flow
- dividend
- current run rate of trading

[discodave45] 29/3/2021 17:15

Is it a trading update tomorrow?

[lefrene] 29/3/2021 13:48

It's had a very good run, some of that parcel business will drop away once shops re-open, and I doubt RMG has changed it's culture in the past 12 months. No doubt there has been a rush to increase capacity across the parcel shifting industry, which suggests that if demand were to slip a little, then parcel rates would fall. Valued at £5 billion, seems somewhat rarified imo in a utility industry with fairly low barriers to entry.

[moorsie2] 29/3/2021 10:02

Clothes are only one subsection

Books, appliances, cosmetics, etc are perfectly suited to a permanent move to online.

This was happening anyway - Covid lockdowns have just accelerated the change by 5 years plus in 1 year. This is why delivery firms are key and valuations now higher than 12 months ago

[careful] 29/3/2021 09:54

Only time will tell if online shopping is permanent.

It is better to feel the texture, see the goods, and with clothes try them on.

Online is too inconvenient after lockdown. We have to be home to accept deliveries, if the product is wrong e have to turn it.
Ohen there is the social experience.

[moorsie2] 26/3/2021 08:54

The transition to online shopping is a permanent change. Add to that, no one was predicting lockdown in UK for the first 4 months of 2021 so both these factors play strongly in RMGs favour.

Looking forward to the pre close statement on Tuesday

[charlie9038] 25/3/2021 18:45

Thanks Moorsie for the info, your forecast sounds promising. This has dropped for the last 3 days now, only a small dip, some news wil get it going positive again.

[moorsie2] 25/3/2021 12:20

And here is the reason why to hold tight

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The coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing lockdown measures have resulted in dramatic changes to consumer behavior. While the drastic rise in online shopping caused a surge in parcel deliveries across Europe, the trend towards more digitazation has accelerated the decrease in mail deliveries.

DPDgroup, one of Europe’s leading parcel delivery networks and part of France’s Le Groupe La Poste, for example, reported record sales of Euro 11.0 billion ($13.1 billion) last year, 42% higher than in 2019. According to the company, it delivered 1.9 billion parcels worldwide last year, equivalent to 7.5 million per day. A record of 13.9 million were reportedly handled on Cyber Monday on November 30.

“COVID-19 led to an unexpected surge for the parcel industry. Country-wide lockdowns, self-isolation and preventative measures prompted a spike in deliveries,” DPDgroup said in a statement. “The health crisis also caused customer trends expected for 2024 to surface far in advance, such as heightened urban logistics demand and a greater sense of environmental responsibility, [...] and the market also noticed a significant shift to B2C. At DPDgroup, 55% are now 2C volumes,” the company added.

Two shocks for La Poste: According to France’s Le Groupe La Poste, the COVID-19 pandemic caused two main shocks for the group. The first was an economic shock due to the collapse of mail volumes from 9.1 billion letters in 2019 to 7.5 billion letters last year. The second was an unprecedented operational shock for a local and contact company that had to thoroughly review its processes and organizations. Still, the group managed to cope with an “explosion of parcels,” delivering 471 million through its Service-Courrier-Colis branch (+29%) and the 1.9 billion parcels delivered by DPDgroup in France and the rest of the world.

Record Deutsche Post results: Germany’s Deutsche Post DHL Group also benefited from the rise in global e-commerce activities and posted a 5.5% year-on-year rise in sales to Euro 66.8 billion last year. The company’s EBIT accelerated by 17.4% to more than Euro 4.8 billion.

“Evidence of the profitable growth in the past financial year is the extraordinarily positive development in the express as well as in the national and international parcel business. The dynamic increase in shipping volumes accelerated once again during the Christmas season, with network capacity utilization at consistently optimal levels,” Deutsche Post DHL Group said in a statement.

The company’s Post & Parcel Germany division generated sales of Euro 16.5 billion (+7%) and EBIT of around Euro 1.6 billion (+29%) last year, attributing the development to a substantial increase in parcel volumes to more than 1.6 billion and stabilizing decline rates for mail volumes. “The long-term trend toward rising parcel volumes accelerated significantly with volume growth of 15.3% in 2020 and will normalize in the future from this elevated base. Cost measures and network adjustments in the letter mail business partly offset slow demand from business customers in dialogue marketing,” the group noted.

Busiest Q3 for Royal Mail: The UK’s Royal Mail also reported a surge in parcel deliveries last year. In its trading update for the nine months ended December 2020, the company said that its third quarter was the busiest in its history. “The third quarter saw unprecedented parcel volumes in Royal Mail, driven by online shopping and the peak Christmas period, with 496 million parcels handled [...],” Royal Mail non-executive chairman Keith Williams commented. “The decline in addressed letter volumes slowed to 14% in Q3, with a decline of 9% in December [...],” he added.

As for the first few months of 2021, Royal Mail said that recent letter volume and revenue trends have been more robust than anticipated, with advertising, business and stamped mail all performing above the group’s previous expectations. Growth in parcels in the UK has reportedly remained strong but broadly in line with expectations.

Parcel growth in Spain: Spain217;s Correos Group handled 208.9 million parcels and express letters last year, 8.39% more than in 2019. According to the company, the development was mainly attributable to a peak in parcel deliveries during the Christmas season and the general rise in e-commerce.

The Correos Group handled 51.1 million parcels during the Christmas season from November 1 to January 7, 31% more than in 2019. On December 28, the company moved a total of 2.4 million parcels, the highest number of deliveries on a single day in its history. This was followed by a similar number of parcels on January 4.

Mail volumes decline in Portugal: According to CTT – Correios de Portugal, the coronavirus pandemic accelerated the downward trend in mail volumes. The group’s mail revenues fell to Euro 422.9 million last year, Euro 48.4 million or 10.3% lower than in 2019.

Sales in CTT’s express & parcels unit amounted to Euro 193.0 million last year, Euro 40.6 million or 26.6% more than in 2019. “In 2020, the restrictions imposed on most sectors of the economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic substantially impacted the items’ profiles, with a reduction in B2B volumes in H1 2020 and strong growth in e-commerce activity (B2C),” the group said in a statement, adding that it observed a recovery in the B2B segment as well as continued growth of e-commerce activity in the second half of the year.

According to CTT, courier, express and parcel volumes totalled 25.9 million items last year, 35.7% more than in 2019. “Contributing to this record-level activity was the strong boost of e-commerce, with very relevant growth in the food, sports and leisure, education and culture and consumer electronics sectors,” the group noted.

Parcel business grows in Italy: Parcel deliveries were also on the rise in Italy last year. According to Poste Italiane, which has not yet released full-year results, it registered a 42% year-on-year increase in e-commerce packages, reaching a record number of 53 million parcels, in the first nine months of 2020, and this trend continued in the final quarter of the year.

“The B2C segment has shown a solid trend after recording a very strong third quarter,” Poste Italiane CEO Matteo Del Fante commented in a statement in early December. “In October, which went even better than September, and November we saw constant growth and we are now entering an important period for this type of market,” he added. According to preliminary figures, Poste Italiane delivered 27 million parcels, of which 20 million were related to e-commerce, in December, almost 10 million or around 56% more than in December 2019.

Good results for Austrian Post: The COVID-19 pandemic and the temporary lockdown provisions and restrictions were felt by Austrian Post and its cutomers, too, although the market environment reportedly improved somewhat in the third and fourth quarters. The company’s sales rose by 8.3% year on year to some Euro 2.2 billion in 2020.

“This increase in sales can be attributed to the good development in the parcel segment (+44.4%)” Austrian Post said in a statement. “While the letter & advertising mail division recorded a disproportionate decline in sales of 7.4%, the parcel & logistics division was able to achieve growth in the Austrian market (parcel volume +30%), in southeastern and eastern Europe (parcel volume +27%) and in the now consolidated Turkish market (parcel volumes +37%),” the company added.

[dan_b999] 25/3/2021 10:15

Hold tight

[cwa1] 22/3/2021 17:02

The Sphinx isn't slowing down :-)

[cwa1] 19/3/2021 07:59

From RBC this morning:-

RMG LN +1% ...Fedex +4% after hours on bullish outlook.

[moorsie2] 18/3/2021 19:58

Very strong sign re largest shareholder still adding

[arja] 18/3/2021 19:05

another nice up dsy but US indices fell quite sharply in last hour and RMG might open down a few pence on friday before recovering

[cwa1] 18/3/2021 17:25

I see the Czech Sphinx has continued to up his holding. Excellent:-

[arja] 17/3/2021 14:28

could even get to 550 chart resistance in next week or so

[arja] 17/3/2021 14:23

lovely looking chart and even resisted the bearish mood today

[moorsie2] 16/3/2021 13:21

Now into the 10 market day period before pre close statement on 30th March.

I would be shocked if we do not see steady increases over these days to 600p zone

[moorsie2] 16/3/2021 09:10

Has a long way to run from here ....