Shell Share Discussion Threads

[xxxxxy] 07/1/2022 15:43

Cricket Fan3 HRS AGOReply to Henry Badger - view messageMessage ActionsAnd no mention of the tax paid to the UK exchequer. Shell have moved away from the Dutch precisely because of such idiotic policies. They will move operations again if the UK govt resorts to cheap shots like this. Thank goodness Lib Dems are not in charge.REPLY 5... Daily Telegraph

[waldron] 07/1/2022 14:56

INVEZZ


Shell share price forecast: Cheap RDSB could surge ahead

By: Crispus Nyaga
on Jan 7, 2022

The Shell share price has started the year well.

It has risen by about 12% from its December lows.

The stock could keep rising in light of the $5.5 billion buybacks.

The Royal Dutch Shell (LON: RDSB) share price rose to the highest level since October last year. It is trading at 1,722p, which is about 12% above the lowest level in December. Other oil and gas stocks like BP and ExxonMobil have also done well.


Shell buybacks

The Shell share price has done well, supported by the relatively high crude oil and natural gas prices. The price of crude oil has jumped this year as investors downplay the impact of the Omicron variant to the global economy. Recent data shows that the variant is relatively milder than the previous variants.



The stock is also doing well after the company unveiled its plan to return funds to shareholders. It will buy back stock worth $5.5 billion using the funds it raised after selling its Permian Basin operations to ConocoPhillips.

These distributions will be in addition to the existing buyback plan that involves repurchasing stock using between 20% and 30% of its total cash flow.

In a statement, the company said that it will report between 910k and 950k barrels of oil per day for the fourth quarter and about 7.7 million to 8.3 million mt/day of LNG.

This guidance was lower than the previous one.

Analysts are optimistic about the Shell share price because of the rising demand and the fact that oil and gas prices have been stable.

The company is also taking actions to reduce costs.

For example, last year, the company said that it will shift its headquarters from the Netherlands to London.

In a recent article, Barron’s mentioned Shell as one of its picks for the year.

They cited the company’s discount to its American rivals and the fact that it is a leading gas producer.

Natural gas prices have been in a strong bullish trend lately.


On the daily chart, we see that the RDSB share price crossed a key resistance level this week. The stock managed to move above the key level at 1,705, which was the highest level on December 7th.

It also jumped above the 25-day moving average and is slowly approaching its highest level in 2021. The MACD has also moved above the neutral level.

Therefore, the stock will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance at 1,850p. This view will be invalidated if the stock crashes below 1,600p.

[scobak] 07/1/2022 12:02

The buyback mentality appeared after the aquisition of British Gas and was as I understand it to get back to a financial position immediatly prior to BG.
Unfortunately the mentality has become ingrained in the Shell corporte management.
They have taken their eye off the ball and almost forgotten that oil / gas / products ie energy is what this company is about. They should continue with that instead of playing to the woke and green public opinion.
BG was the last inspired corporate move, unlike selling the Permian acreage.
It is looking increasingly as if it may be one of the last.

[spud] 07/1/2022 11:44

Geck - Yes Special Divi, Debt Repayment & Buyback in that order.

What is it with mega-cap businesses that think that share buybacks are the silver bullet? Anyone with a modicum of business nouse can see that with interest rates on the ascension and a large debt pile, these aren't exactly compatible bedfellows.

spud

[tornado12] 07/1/2022 11:32

Thanks for the inputs , but the return of higher DIVI reward is fundamental in my view . I agree never sell Shell Logo has dropped off in the last 2 years and the resilience of BOD to ESG pressures is of concern.
They must protect their MS in core business as much as possible as long as demand continues. The dream of zero emissions tomorrow as many institutes are asking remains implausible and the risk to forcing it, is what we have seen in prices and unrest around the globe. Oil is going no where apart from continued high demand over the next 10 yrs and beyond.

[geckotheglorious] 07/1/2022 10:57

Scobak

As to "never sell Shell"

Agree, Shell is no longer a buy and hold for me. I've sold the stake I purchased in the 900's a while back for a decent turn in 1500's. Now looking to offload my core holding with a 20 handle to buy into Exxon/Chevron.

If one wants LT O&G exposure the Americans seem a better bet than Shell/BP/ which have gone woke in my view.

[geckotheglorious] 07/1/2022 10:55

Tornado,

Personally I'd prefer they used the permian sale proceeds to pay off debt if they are not doing a special divi.

Special Divi
Debt Repayment
Buyback

My order of preference..

God help us if they decide to do an acquisition in the renewables sector.

[oilretire] 07/1/2022 10:46

t12, back to my original point, 'at pace' could be off market deal(s) with institutions that want to reduce or exit. Therefore no influence on the share price

Or I guess it could counter the ongoing suppression of the share price if the instis that want out are continuing to drip feed the sell side. Clear them out and up we go?

[scobak] 07/1/2022 10:41

Seems like everyone, on the face of it, has taken this quite well. However not what I thought we had been promised. I had been looking at reinvesting the special divi at what would have given me some ongoing benefit.
And to think they used the expression 'never sell shell'.
I'll have to reconsider that.

[tornado12] 07/1/2022 10:26

How quick can Shell buyback 5 billion quid worth of stock ?. At pace would be quite difficult without influencing the SP

[tornado12] 07/1/2022 10:08

My take is they need to focus on debt reduction (already running) and getting divi back above 5%. This is not a low risk business today and reward should be something north 5% at share price £20, so minimum 25p a quarter. This is the basis of investing in big oil. The other annoying point is that volumes and Margins are again not taking full advantage of market prices and tight supply. For this they need to get their act together. I remain long but with some reservations of the BOD . However, moving 100% HQ to UK is a strong message that they are not afraid to take big business decisions !

[charggg] 07/1/2022 09:44

Simple math - £5bn will buyback roughly 3% of the issued share capital at say £18 per share. Dividend usually is not tax effective for big IIs, especially when share price is undervalued by the market.

[oilretire] 07/1/2022 09:44

"This company is run by a management who only think of their wallets. They don't care about shareholders at all."


Daft thing is, because of the share save schemes & the shares they issue to themselves annually as part of the overall reward package, they too would win quite handsomely from a special dividend.

[xxxxxy] 07/1/2022 09:37

I think I could use the money better. For me.

[e43] 07/1/2022 09:37

RDS BOD and senior management still suffering from their usual lack of confidence cup half empty attitude, they need to take a leaf out of Chevron's book and take pride in being profitable, if they don't start changing track a break up will eventually come,they're no longer too big to be taken out.

[mercury287] 07/1/2022 09:26

Exactly how does the share buyback increase Director bonuses? None of the criteria for Shell Director bonuses are based on a 'per share' metric. It may be valid for some companies but buybacks don't help Shell Director bonuses at all.

[spud] 07/1/2022 09:10

The daft thing is, the Company can never buy back enough shares to make even the slightest detectable dent in the issued share capital that would result in any appreciable lift in value. It's like trying to put out a bushfire with a garden hose. I'm sure someone will come back with the age old argument that by lowering the share count, the dividend cost reduces ect ect.Share buy backs are designed for companies that have run out of any real investment ideas, are simple and reward director bonuses.spud

[geckotheglorious] 07/1/2022 09:01

Always knew they'd screw us over on a special dividend and go for buybacks.

This company is run by a management who only think of their wallets. They don't care about shareholders at all.

[andyadvfn1] 07/1/2022 08:59

Regardless, despite production problems which I believe all producers more or less will suffer from due to lack of maintenance and investment during the pandemic, feeling is oil and gas is still the place to be going forward, with prices to remain high, supply unable to meet demand.

[andyadvfn1] 07/1/2022 08:42

Gut feeling of disappointment. That's Last 2 quarters negative, prelude debacle. The only plus being the Permian asset sales!

[andyadvfn1] 07/1/2022 08:28

The market would seem unimpressed with it. SP Down 0.4% as I type. BP up 0.8%

[oilretire] 07/1/2022 08:26

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather they gave it out as a special div.

[spud] 07/1/2022 08:24

$5.5b buyback will be a drop in the ocean compared with the outstanding shares and will make zilch difference to the price. If anything, the price will drop overall as IIs rush for the ESG exit.spud

[pete160] 07/1/2022 08:18

It's also funds that they retained from when they slashed the dividend!