Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Royal Dutch Shell Plc LSE:RDSA London Ordinary Share GB00B03MLX29 'A' ORD EUR0.07
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -45.80 -3.13% 1,418.20 13,436,372 16:35:27
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,415.80 1,416.60 1,466.40 1,403.40 1,456.80
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 13,205.26 -19,723.45 -203.33 58,164
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:09:28 O 17,098 1,435.445 GBX

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Royal Dutch Shell Daily Update: Royal Dutch Shell Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker RDSA. The last closing price for Royal Dutch Shell was 1,464p.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc has a 4 week average price of 1,344.40p and a 12 week average price of 1,337.60p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,587.60p while the 1 year low share price is currently 878.30p.
There are currently 4,101,239,499 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 4,602,147 shares. The market capitalisation of Royal Dutch Shell Plc is £58,163,778,574.82.
florenceorbis: 07/06/2021 7:00am UK Regulatory (RNS & others) TIDMRDSA TIDMRDSB The Hague, June 7, 2021 - The Board of Royal Dutch Shell plc ("RDS") today announced the pounds sterling and euro equivalent dividend payments in respect of the first quarter 2021 interim dividend, which was announced on April 29, 2021 at US$0.1735 per A ordinary share ("A Share") and B ordinary share ("B Share"). Dividends on A Shares will be paid, by default, in euros at the rate of EUR0.1426 per A Share. Holders of A Shares who have validly submitted US dollars or pounds sterling currency elections by May 28, 2021 will be entitled to a dividend of US$0.1735 or 12.26p per A Share, respectively. Dividends on B Shares will be paid, by default, in pounds sterling at the rate of 12.26p per B Share. Holders of B Shares who have validly submitted US dollars or euros currency elections by May 28, 2021 will be entitled to a dividend of US$0.1735 or EUR0.1426 per B Share, respectively. Euro and pounds sterling dividends payable in cash have been converted from US dollars based on an average of market exchange rates over the three dealing days from 2 June to 4 June 2021. This dividend will be payable on June 21, 2021 to those members whose names were on the Register of Members on May 14, 2021. Taxation - cash dividend Cash dividends on A Shares will be subject to the deduction of Dutch dividend withholding tax at the rate of 15%, which may be reduced in certain circumstances. Non-Dutch resident shareholders, depending on their particular circumstances, may be entitled to a full or partial refund of Dutch dividend withholding tax. If you are uncertain as to the tax treatment of any dividends you should consult your tax advisor. Note A different currency election date may apply to shareholders holding shares in a securities account with a bank or financial institution ultimately holding through Euroclear Nederland. This may also apply to other shareholders who do not hold their shares either directly on the Register of Members or in the corporate sponsored nominee arrangement. Shareholders can contact their broker, financial intermediary, bank or financial institution for the election deadline that applies.
waldron: Oil Giants Recover as Prices Rebound -- Update 04/30/2021 | 03:27pm BST By Christopher M. Matthews Big oil companies returned to profitability during the first quarter as they recovered from the unprecedented destruction of oil and gas demand wrought by the coronavirus pandemic. Exxon Mobil Corp. reported $2.7 billion in net income Friday, its first quarterly profit since the pandemic erupted last spring, while Chevron Corp. reported $1.4 billion in first-quarter profit. The results were boosted by rising oil prices during the first months of 2021, as countries around the world soften coronavirus quarantines. The largest European oil companies, BP PLC, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Total SE, all reported profits earlier in the week after enduring huge losses last year. "That recovery, which we had anticipated happening at some point in time, is happening sooner than we anticipated," Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods said in an interview Friday. "As economies are reopening and rebounding quicker, in some places, than expected, we are seeing a demand response." Oil companies endured one of their worst years on record in 2020, as Covid-19 lockdowns choked off demand for oil and gas as road and air traffic fell precipitously. Exxon reported its first annual loss in modern history in 2020 of about $22 billion. But cautious optimism has been mounting that global economic activity could return to pre-pandemic levels later this year as vaccines become more widely available around the world. Chevron Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber said that demand for gasoline and diesel was nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, and that jet fuel is the last remaining overhang, with strong signs that domestic air travel in the U.S. is picking up. "As we look forward, the next couple of quarters look very good," Mr. Breber said in an interview. "We feel good about our ability to generate cash." Chevron's net income was down about 62% from the same quarter last year, but was a substantial increase from a $665 million loss in the previous quarter. Exxon's $2.7 billion profit compared with a $610 million loss a year ago. BP's profit more than tripled from the previous quarter to nearly $4.7 billion, and Shell reported a profit of almost $5.7 billion. Share prices for the world's largest energy companies have moved in tandem with oil prices that have rebounded markedly in recent months. U.S. oil prices are up nearly 80% over the past six months, while the shares of Exxon, Chevron, BP and Shell are collectively up about 65%. On Thursday, U.S. oil prices neared a six-week high of about $65 a barrel but fell around 2.5% in early trading Friday as traders eyed a build in crude and gasoline stockpiles. The share prices of Exxon, Chevron, BP and Shell were collectively down nearly 2% in early trading Friday. The optimism about oil and gas demand rebounding is being tempered by concerns about rapidly rising Covid-19 case numbers in India and South America, said Bjornar Tonhaugen, an analyst at Rystad Energy. Reduced economic activity in India alone may sap as much as 900,000 barrels of oil a day from global demand, according to Rystad. "For the moment optimism is helping prices, but every trader's eyes are on India," Mr. Tonhaugen said. "The oil bulls are out again but it's doubtful that they are having a confident and calm sleep." In response to growing profits, Chevron, BP and Shell boosted their payouts to investors. On Wednesday, Chevron increased its quarterly dividend by 4%, while Shell also raised its dividend 4%, the second increase since slashing it last year. BP said it would buy back $500 million of shares. Total and Exxon held their dividends flat. The weeklong freeze in Texas that left millions without power in February affected profits for many of the companies, which both produce oil in the state and own plants there to convert the hydrocarbons into fuels and plastics. Chevron's refining and chemical units reported $5 million in profits, down from $1.1 billion a year ago, which Chevron CEO Mike Wirth attributed to the February storm and continuing impact of the pandemic. In total, the storm cut about $300 million from its profit, Chevron said. Exxon said the extreme weather reduced earnings by nearly $600 million. Meanwhile, analysts attributed the strong performance of BP's trading unit to its ability to capitalize on substantial price fluctuations during the storm. Despite the improving conditions, Chevron has pledged to keep capital expenditures austere. Mr. Wirth said capital spending decreased 43% from last year during the quarter, citing its corporate restructuring last year that saw as much as 15% of its workforce laid off. Exxon also has pledged fiscal restraint, saying its plan to cut annual capital spending by about 30% remains unchanged. Some investors are deeply skeptical of the industry notwithstanding climbing commodity prices, according to Paul Sankey, an independent oil and gas analyst. Most of the companies' share prices are still trading below their pre-pandemic levels as investors evaluate the firms' plans to navigate tightening global regulations on carbon emissions. Earlier this month, President Biden pledged to cut U.S. emissions by about 50% from 2005 levels by 2030, targeting greenhouse gases from power plants, buildings and the transportation sector. Mr. Woods said Friday that Exxon is engaging with officials on climate policy and has urged the government to set a price on carbon, which it says would spur investment in carbon-reducing technologies. Mr. Sankey said the industry delivered poor results for years from their core oil business before the pandemic, leaving some to doubt they can reap profits from renewable energy or technologies to reduce carbon emissions, which some of the companies have promised to do. "Their track record is not good enough for them to get into a new theme, because they did so poorly on the old one," Mr. Sankey said. Write to Christopher M. Matthews at (END) Dow Jones Newswires
waldron: Oil price boost should see BP Q1 profits gush The 25 per cent-plus rise in oil prices seen since the start of 2021 should help BP’s profits surge when it reports first-quarter results this week. By Perry Gourley and August Graham Sunday, 25th April 2021, 7:00 am Analysts expect the company's replacement cost profit, its preferred measure, to reach £1.2 billion compared to £569 million in the same period last year. Since the start of the year the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has risen strongly and has trebled since a low point a year ago. Steve Clayton, manager of the HL Select Funds, said: "With oil prices having built on their 2020 recovery throughout the first three months of the year, BP should have had a reasonable trading environment to report when it posts first-quarter numbers." The price of Brent averaged around $61 (£44) a barrel in the first quarter, compared to $44 a quarter earlier, and $50 in the first three months of 2020. However, shares in BP and rival Shell, which also reports next week, have not bounced back as strongly as many expected. BP's shares have only gained 16 per cent since their worst days in March 2020 and are still more than 40 per cent down from their pre-pandemic levels. Shell, which in January announced it was cutting 300 Aberdeen jobs, meanwhile is up just 27 per cent from March 2020 and also around 40 per cent down since January 2020. AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said investors are “clearly sceptical” over the two majors’ shift to a lower carbon business model. The companies' share prices will also not have been helped by cutting dividends, the first time since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill for BP, and the first time since the Second World War for Shell. "Some contrarians may see this as an opportunity, given how sentiment toward the sector is so washed out, how badly the stocks have performed, the possibility of an economic upturn, and the likelihood that oil will be with us as a primary source of energy for some time to come, whether we like it or not," Mr Mould said. He added that analysts will also focus on BP's production figures when the results come out on Tuesday.
waldron: Historic Oil Glut Amassed During the Pandemic Has Almost Gone Grant Smith and Julian Lee, Bloomberg News AddThis Sharing Buttons Share to Facebook Share to TwitterShare to LinkedInShare to EmailShare to Plus d'options... Oil storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg Oil storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg , Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- The unprecedented oil inventory glut that amassed during the coronavirus pandemic is almost gone, underpinning a price recovery that’s rescuing producers but vexing consumers. Barely a fifth of the surplus that flooded into the storage tanks of developed economies when oil demand crashed last year remained as of February, according to the International Energy Agency. Since then, the lingering remnants have been whittled away as supplies hoarded at sea plunge and a key depot in South Africa is depleted. The re-balancing comes as OPEC and its allies keep vast swathes of production off-line and a tentative economic recovery rekindles global fuel demand. It’s propping international crude prices near $67 a barrel, a boon for producers yet an increasing concern for motorists and governments wary of inflation. “Commercial oil inventories across the OECD are already back down to their five-year average,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. “What’s left of the surplus is almost entirely concentrated in China, which has been building a permanent petroleum reserve.” The process isn’t quite complete. A considerable overhang appears to remain off the coast of China’s Shandong province, though this may have accumulated to feed new refineries, according to consultants IHS Markit Ltd. Working off the remainder of the global excess may take some more time, as OPEC+ is reviving some halted supplies and new virus outbreaks in India and Brazil threaten demand. Still, the end of the glut at least appears to be in sight. Oil inventories in developed economies stood just 57 million barrels above their 2015-2019 average as of February, down from a peak of 249 million in July, the IEA estimates. It’s a stark turnaround from a year ago, when lockdowns crushed world fuel demand by 20% and trading giant Gunvor Group Ltd. fretted that storage space for oil would soon run out. Stockpile Slump In the U.S., the inventory pile-up has effectively cleared already. Total stockpiles of crude and products subsided in late February to 1.28 billion barrels -- a level seen before coronavirus erupted -- and continue to hover there, according to the Energy Information Administration. Last week, stockpiles in the East Coast fell to their lowest in at least 30 years. “We’re starting to see refinery runs pick up in the U.S., which will be good for potential crude stock draws,” said Mercedes McKay, a senior analyst at consultants FGE. There have also been declines inside the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the warren of salt caverns used to store oil for emergency use. Traders and oil companies were allowed to temporarily park oversupply there by former President Trump, and in recent months have quietly removed about 21 million barrels from the location, according to people familiar with the matter. The oil surplus that gathered on the world’s seas is also diminishing. Ships were turned into makeshift floating depots when onshore facilities grew scarce last year, but the volumes have plunged, according to IHS Markit Ltd. They’ve tumbled about by 27% in the past two weeks to 50.7 million barrels, the lowest in a year, IHS analysts Yen Ling Song and Fotios Katsoulas estimate. A particularly vivid symbol is the draining of crude storage tanks at the logistically-critical Saldanha Bay hub on the west coast of South Africa. It’s a popular location for traders, allowing them the flexibility to quickly send cargoes to different geographical markets. Inventories at the terminal are set to fall to 24.5 million barrels, the lowest in a year, according to ship tracking data monitored by Bloomberg. For the 23-nation OPEC+ coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the decline is a vindication of the bold strategy they adopted a year ago. The alliance slashed output by 10 million barrels a day last April -- roughly 10% of global supplies -- and is now in the process of carefully restoring some of the halted barrels. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has consistently said its key objective is to normalize swollen inventories, though it’s unclear whether the cartel will open the taps once that’s achieved. In the past, the lure of high prices has prompted the group to keep production tight even after reaching its stockpile target. Mixed Blessing To consuming nations the great de-stocking is less of a blessing. Drivers in California are already reckoning with paying almost $4 for a gallon of gasoline, data from the AAA auto club shows. India, a major importer, has complained about the financial pain of resurgent prices. For better or worse, the re-balancing should continue. As demand picks up further, global inventories will decline at a rate of 2.2 million barrels a day in the second half, propelling Brent crude to $74 a barrel or even higher, Citigroup predicts. “Gasoline sales are ripping in the U.S.,” said Morse. “Demand across all products will hit record levels in the third quarter, pushed up by demand for transport fuels and petrochemical feed-stocks.”
ariane: ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2020 EURO AND GBP EQUIVALENT DIVIDEND PAYMENTS Email Print Friendly Share March 15, 2021 03:00 ET | Source: Shell International B.V. The Hague, March 15, 2021 - The Board of Royal Dutch Shell plc (“RDS”) today announced the pounds sterling and euro equivalent dividend payments in respect of the fourth quarter 2020 interim dividend, which was announced on February 4, 2021 at US$0.1665 per A ordinary share (“A Share”) and B ordinary share (“B Share”). Dividends on A Shares will be paid, by default, in euros at the rate of €0.1396 per A Share. Holders of A Shares who have validly submitted US dollars or pounds sterling currency elections by March 5, 2021 will be entitled to a dividend of US$0.1665 or 11.96p per A Share, respectively. Dividends on B Shares will be paid, by default, in pounds sterling at the rate of 11.96p per B Share. Holders of B Shares who have validly submitted US dollars or euros currency elections by March 5, 2021 will be entitled to a dividend of US$0.1665 or €0.1396 per B Share, respectively. Euro and pounds sterling dividends payable in cash have been converted from US dollars based on an average of market exchange rates over the three dealing days from 10 March to 12 March 2021. This dividend will be payable on March 29, 2021 to those members whose names were on the Register of Members on February 19, 2021. Taxation - cash dividend Cash dividends on A Shares will be subject to the deduction of Dutch dividend withholding tax at the rate of 15%, which may be reduced in certain circumstances. Non-Dutch resident shareholders, depending on their particular circumstances, may be entitled to a full or partial refund of Dutch dividend withholding tax. If you are uncertain as to the tax treatment of any dividends you should consult your tax advisor. Note A different currency election date may apply to shareholders holding shares in a securities account with a bank or financial institution ultimately holding through Euroclear Nederland. This may also apply to other shareholders who do not hold their shares either directly on the Register of Members or in the corporate sponsored nominee arrangement. Shareholders can contact their broker, financial intermediary, bank or financial institution for the election deadline that applies. Royal Dutch Shell plc GlobeNewswire is one of the world's largest newswire distribution networks, specializing in the delivery of corporate press releases financial disclosures and multimedia content to the media, investment community, individual investors and the general public.
sarkasm: Don't Sell Shell Feb. 04, 2021 5:24 PM ETRoyal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A), RDS.BRYDAFRYDBF1 Comment2 Likes Summary Shell's dreadful stock price action in 2020 is coming to an end. All the bad news has been priced in and the stock offers good value now. Oil fundamentals look supportive but even with flat oil prices, Shell's financials look to be getting stronger, providing strong dividend cover. The Strategy Day on 11th February could offer a catalyst for investors to reconsider Shell as a serious Energy Transition investment option. The December 21st trading update from Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) largely foresaw the torrid Q4 results and 2020 full year results just released. In a nutshell, 2020 was an exceptionally challenging year for the oil major. What should Shell shareholders do? While the company is trying to reposition itself for the new energy landscape ahead, the headlines have been consistently bad for the Anglo-Dutch company. Profit warnings, write-downs, collapsing prices for oil, collapsing refinery margins, the first cut in dividends for decades, a falling share price, and finally the departure of several clean energy executives amid internal arguments over its clean energy strategy have all contributed to the bear market in Shell's stock in the last year. The 36% fall in the stock price over the last year sounds bad, but there is a fundamental truth in oil markets and that is that the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. That’s why the weakness in the sector, the cutbacks in production and investment will cause higher oil prices going forward, as I have already pitched in a recent Seeking Alpha article on crude oil, that so far is playing out nicely. The pessimism about Shell, coupled with some positive signs on the horizon and my bullish outlook on oil in fact make Shell a very good contrarian play. The fact that December’s profit warning did not do much damage to the share price suggests that all the bad news is already priced in and indeed the stock has started to rise over the last couple of months. The Global Investor thinks this recent price action isn’t a dead cat bounce, but the start of a rally back to a fairer, higher price for Shell's stock. Oil majors have traditionally been core income stocks for many portfolios but after the first dividend cuts in decades last year, when the dividend was cut 66% it has since been raised slightly in October and now been raised again slightly some more. This gives the stock a current dividend yield of about 3.6%. What’s more, Shell is still slashing costs and capital expenditure, like the rest of the oil and gas industry, and US shale output is falling thanks to weak pricing. This suggests low prices will squeeze out uneconomic supply and help oil prices continue their recovery. And with the rollout of vaccination programs, some oil demand lost in 2020 should come back in 2021, further tightening the supply-demand balance towards higher oil prices. Another contrarian indicator is that the oil and gas industry is now hated by institutional investors, either for financial reasons or for environmental, social and governance - ESG - reasons and this has simply gone too far. The weighting of the Oil & Gas sector in the main stock market indexes is at lows last seen in the 1990s when oil prices ranged from $10-$20 per barrel. Risks This brings us to the risks of owning Shell right now. ESG is a new force in the markets, so some investors simply won’t look at Shell for a long time. Long-term oil demand has probably peaked and the switch to renewable sources of energy will be bumpy as the company is finding in its transition efforts to date. Shell also has the risk that it gets stuck with “stranded assets” with its large reserves of oil and gas. This means Shell’s book value is bound to be higher than its market value as investors price in further write-downs to its asset values. Shell has traditionally been a very reliable dividend payer, but the energy transition makes it almost impossible to balance the needs of high dividend payouts with the large investments required in greener energies. While the dividend has been cut deeply to a lower level, investors cannot assume it will rise back to its previous level quickly as the volatility in energy markets and the restructuring needs of Shell will probably dictate otherwise. Indeed, Shell's management has called it a dividend "reset". The future It is expected that Shell will outline a radical new strategy at its investor day scheduled for February 11th. The new strategy, likely to focus on clean energy, and to more closely follow BP’s radical restructuring plans that started last year, could appeal to investors who are looking more at the rate of change in ESG factors than in the absolute level of how good a company is on current ESG measures, specifically with respect to climate change and carbon emissions. Strategy Day on February 11th Ultimately, The Global Investor expects Shell to try to strike a balance between driving meaningful change towards 'Net Zero' emissions but also to maximize value from existing businesses over the intermediate period. The following are some of the topics I expect Shell to cover in the forthcoming Strategy Day which I expect to help turn market sentiment back towards Shell’s favor. Net zero by 2050 or earlier – Shell already outlined this target back in April last year but didn’t give much detail and so wasn’t seen as that credible. Shell will probably present its business plan in more detail to get to these targets. Upstream oil & gas to underpin cash generation. Having made the mega acquisition of gas major BG Group back in 2016, Shell is more committed to oil & gas than BP who have outlined plans to cut production by 40% over the next decade. Given Shell's project pipeline, its portfolio still has some growth potential but during last year’s Q3 results CEO Ben van Beurden said "It’s probably fair to say that 2019 was the high point in terms of oil production". So Shell is probably keen to keep a relatively flat production profile as it looks to sell non-core positions as it uses its Upstream division to act as a key contributor to cash generation over the next decade, through both operations as well as disposals. While this might disappoint ESG investors who argue for more aggressive action, it will keep dividend investors happy as this strategy reduces risks to free cash flow generation. Strength in natural gas, the bridge fuel. Shell is the world’s largest player in LNG so it’s likely Shell will highlight the role of natural gas as the “transition fuel” helping reduce carbon emissions because of its cleaner properties compared to coal and its vital role in electricity generation. The term "bridge" comes about because natural gas can support renewables over the period where wind and solar still suffer from intermittency issues. In 2019 Shell said it expected the LNG market to grow at 4% per year over the next few years. Last year management said Shell’s LNG business will not necessarily match the market "percent for percent" which might mean lower capex needs in this division. LNG will remain a key cash generator over the next decade so expect updates on Shell’s LNG outlook on 11th February. Growth opportunities in hydrogen and biofuels. For renewables, Shell will likely emphasize both hydrogen and biofuels given hydrogen is a natural fit as it is already produced and consumed in Shell’s refining business. Shell already has about 50 hydrogen fueling stations mostly in Germany and California. In biofuels, Shell is one of the largest blenders and distributors globally, partly due to its 50:50 joint venture with Raizen in Brazil. Shell will likely highlight its expansion in wind and solar, businesses which are getting extremely competitive now. Shell will look to leverage its strong Marketing and Trading positions to sell more electricity to the customers who currently buy fossil fuels from their large global customer networks. New Energies to account for about 25% of capital expenditure over the next few years. At last year’s 3Q earnings announcement, Shell guided that capex would remain in the $19-22 billion range over the coming years. It gave high level guidance on the breakdown between segments: 35-40% for Upstream, 35-40% for “Transition business”, which includes Integrated Gas, Chemicals and Refining, and about 25% to growth businesses such as Marketing, Power, Hydrogen, Biofuels and carbon capture, utilization and storage with nature-based solutions. The Global Investor expects Shell to update this breakdown and give more detail. Overall, hydrocarbons will remain part of Shell’s core strategy over the next decade. This gives it less execution risk on restructuring compared to its great rival BP, but makes it more exposed to oil and gas commodity prices. While ESG investors do play a role at the margin, and maybe a larger role in Europe, The Global Investor still believes the stock market is overall, at least in the long term, amoral. Short term trends matter and ESG has driven investors away from oil & gas but it could also be argued that that’s mostly happened because of weaker financial returns in the sector. If Shell can raise its profits through higher oil prices, Shell can raise its dividends and investors will put a higher valuation on the stock because of higher dividends. Dividends So, it comes back to dividends ultimately. That has always been the driver of Shell’s share price. Assuming oil prices at about $50/bbl over the next few years – more conservative than my actual view – I think Shell will generate $13-14 billion in free cash flow each year. At current dividend levels this implies dividend cover of about 2.5x, a very high number for Shell historically. This means Shell's balance sheet will start to de-leverage quickly. Management has indicated that when net debt falls to about $65 billion it will re-start its share buyback program. This could happen around the middle of next year if oil prices hold. Currently, Shell is guiding for 4% dividend growth per year, but there is big upside potential to this number. Before the dividend reset last year, Shell’s dividend had become unstainable given the investment needed in the energy transition. Valuation Shell’s dividend yield over the last 10 years had bounced around the 6% level as it was always assumed the dividend was unstainable. After the reset a much lower more sustainable dividend yield would be more like 3.5% or 3.6%. Taking 3.6% to be conservative, and a forecast full year 2022 dividend of $1.39 per share for the “A” class ADRs would give us a stock price of about $39, or about 6% higher than where it is at the time of this writing. While this isn’t massive upside, the dividend yield of 3.6% and dividend growth of 4-5% per year offers us good stability. All this assumes conservative oil price forecasts and gives Shell ample room to de-lever and increase share buybacks or accelerate dividend growth, which should further put a bid on the stock price. Conclusion Value investors and income seekers should continue to own Shell. Shell is very likely to always be a “Supermajor221; but with its focus shifting gradually towards energy in general and away from its historical reliance on oil but gas will play a major role for a long period. Energy is a core need in society so Shell is likely to be able to keep its large size and retain its status as a core “income portfolio” position thanks to strong and stable dividends. In the short term, rebounding oil prices should help near term cash flows and hence drive stock price appreciation. A successful investor day on February 11th could help change Shell’s perception amongst the sustainable investment crowd and market sentiment towards companies through lowering the climate / sustainability / reputational risk for institutional investors in owning Shell. This sustainability focus for investors accounts for a very large section of European institutional investors now. So things are improving now and it's likely we've seen the low in the Shell share price. The bottom line is that Shell is worth holding as a small part of your portfolio.
the grumpy old men: The Shell share price rallied 10% last week. Here’s what I’d do right now Jonathan Smith | Monday, 30th November, 2020 | More on: RDSB The Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) share price was one of the best performing FTSE 100 stocks last week. If we extend the time period to look at the past month, it’s up almost 50%. It’s true that the FTSE 100 has enjoyed a strong performance as a whole, but the Shell share price is still outperforming its Footsie peers. What’s been going on here? Why have Shell shares rallied? One of the reasons the Shell share price has performed well in the short term is the oil price. Crude oil was trading around $35 at the beginning of the month. Now it’s trading above $45. Historically, there’s been a strong correlation between the Shell share price and oil. After all, the business is what we call “vertically integrated” with oil. This means it’s active in all stages of the process. From exploration projects in oil fields, to refining it and then selling it in different forms. Therefore, it’s logical that the share price is heavily impacted by the oil price. On top of this, there’s been another external factor benefiting the company. The positive news last week, and in preceding weeks, about several different vaccines proving effective is a huge boost for Shell. If we rewind to Q2 results, oil products sales volumes were down 39%. This was mostly due to the aviation and retail sectors, as the pandemic meant consumers were staying at home. Demand for oil products simply wasn’t there. Now, if we flip to the prospect of a viable vaccine, flight demand should increase. I wrote a piece recently on how this could benefit the easyJet share price. Indirectly, demand for the refined products Shell offers will increase. This should have a knock on impact via a higher share price. What would I do now? The Shell share price still sits at a large discount compared to its level in January 2020. At 1,340p, the January level of 2,200p seen a long way away. So as a long-term buyer, Shell is definitely on my watchlist. But would I buy today? Perhaps not. In the short term, the reasons causing the rally aren’t really Shell-specific. The oil price and vaccine news benefit lots of other businesses as well. The rally hasn’t come from Shell doing something amazing. This makes me cautious of investing right now, and so I’m going to sit on the sidelines for the next few weeks. More in-depth Q4 results should be due in January. This, along with guidance for 2021, should give me a clearer picture on whether Shell should be my oil major of choice, instead of BP or other oil-related stocks. A big driver for me would also be any news about reinstating the full dividend that was cut earlier this year. I remember when I used to own Shell stock, I picked up a dividend yield of 5%-7%. A very generous yield returning would likely further boost the Shell share price as income investors buy the stock. Motley Fool UK
ariane: Oil & Gas Jamie Ashcroft 14:58 Tue 03 Nov 2020 Shell shares could see 20% upside says City analyst Morgan Stanley rates Shell as 'overweight' and sets a new 1,180p price target. Royal Dutch Shell PLC - Shell shares could see 20% upside says City analyst Royal Dutch Shell Plc (LON:RDSB) is the preferred ‘big energy’ stock for analysts at Morgan Stanley, with the American bank lifting its rating to ‘overweight217;. Morgan Stanley has set a new 1,180p price target (current price: 994p), up from 991p. Moreover, analyst Martijn Rats highlights that sector-wide the oil majors performed better than expected during the third quarter against a challenging backdrop, in which share prices have dropped by around 8%. Rats noted that important uncertainties remain for both the short and long term, and, not all companies face the same risks. But, the analyst highlighted that for the first time in a while he can argue that Shell offers greater than 20% of potential share price upside. “Shell's new financial framework and dividend policy send a strong signal about management's confidence in the firm's cash generating ability. “With a dividend yield of 5.4% and new guidance for annual dividend growth of 4%, Shell shares offer a steady-state total return of around 9.4% per year.” Morgan Stanley meanwhile upgrades BP to an ‘equal weight’ rating up from ‘underweight’. “Our Underweight rating for BP was driven by its uncertain earnings and cash flow outlook - even if its strategy is successful - and lack of dividend growth prospects. Following underperformance and its yield expanding to 8.1%, we suspect these factors are also discounted,” the analyst said. Proactiveinvestors
la forge: The Guardian Investors fear there'll be no bright post-Covid dawn for oil majors Jillian Ambrose Sun, 25 October 2020, 1:05 am CEST¬∑3-min read The oil market may have heaved itself out of the darkness of “Black April” but investors are far from convinced that major oil companies will walk away unscathed from the coronavirus pandemic. Royal Dutch Shell and BP will both face investors this week with quarterly financial results that will deliver profits well below those achieved a year ago, against a backdrop of tumbling share prices and rising Covid infections across major economies. On Tuesday, BP is expected to report an underlying loss of $120m for the last quarter, according to analysts’ estimates. This would be a major improvement on its underlying loss of $6.7bn in the second quarter, following heavy writedowns on the company’s exploration business, but would still be well below the $2.3bn third-quarter profit reported in 2019. BP’s announcement will come days after its share price fell below 200p a share for the first time since 1994, and months after the company cut its dividend for the first time since the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and set out plans to cut 10,000 jobs. In the same week, Shell is expected to reveal a modest underlying profit, of $146m, for the third quarter, according to analysts, after plunging to a loss of $18.4bn for the second quarter. This is still a fraction of the $4.76bn profit recorded in the same quarter last year, and follows the company’s decision to cut 9,000 jobs and reduce the dividend for the first time since the second world war. This trend is expected to be followed across the world’s oil companies, tracking the fragile and uncertain recovery of global oil markets amid a second wave of coronavirus infections. The price of oil reached an average of $43 a barrel in the third quarter – stronger than the average of $30 a barrel in the second quarter, when US oil prices fell below zero for the first time in April – but still well below the $62 a barrel price that prevailed in the third quarter a year ago.
the grumpy old men: Royal Dutch Shell vs BP: which oil stock would I buy now? Stuart Blair | Wednesday, 2nd September, 2020 | Oil stocks have significantly underperformed the market this year. Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) has fallen around 54%, while its counterpart BP (LSE: BP) has seen a drop of around 47%. Nonetheless, with Brent Crude now priced above $45, investing in oil stocks looks a far more attractive proposition than it did a couple of months ago. As a result, are BP and Royal Dutch Shell buys at their current prices, and which one is the best pick? Royal Dutch Shell Second-quarter earnings for the oil major were understandably very poor. In fact, after an impairment charge of $16.8bn, net income came to a loss of $18.1bn. On the face of it, these earnings paint a very gloomy picture. As such, it’s clear why the Shell share price has fallen nearly 20% since. Nevertheless, upon further inspection of the earnings, there are a number of positives to take away. For example, on an adjusted earnings basis, the oil stock actually made $638m. While adjusted earnings exclude one-off items and can potentially just ignore all the ‘bad stuff’, it’s still a great sign to see the company making a good profit in this challenging quarter. It also had positive cash flow of $243m. Although this does not cover the dividend as yet, I’m still encouraged that it’s in positive territory. This was mainly the result of the company reducing capital expenditures. Consequently, with average oil prices under $30 for the second quarter, I feel the worst may be over for Shell. With third-quarter results due at the end of October, a significant improvement could therefore be met with a sharp increase in the share price. BP After both cutting its dividend and announcing further investment into renewable energy, BP shares have fallen 13%. Of course, this does reflect the fact that the oil stock made an underlying loss of $6.7bn. Even so, the news has not been all negative for BP. For example, the firm has managed to strengthen its finances by issuing $11.9bn in hybrid bonds. Net debt has also been reduced by over $10bn since the first quarter, and this has subsequently seen gearing reduce by 3% to 33%. This contrasts with Shell, where net debt increased by $3bn following the first quarter. Despite the dividend cut, BP also has a greater dividend yield than Shell. In fact, the dividend is currently yielding around 6%, and there is no indication of a further cut. Instead, management has stated that once BP’s balance sheet has been deleveraged, it can start to return more money to shareholders through share buybacks. Which oil stock would I buy? Sitting at prices of 1,085p and 260p respectively, both of these oil stocks look very good value. As a result, I’ve actually invested in both Shell and BP, in anticipation of an oil recovery. If I were forced to choose just one however, I believe that BP offers the most upside potential. Although its transition to greener energy could hit profits in the short term, I think its long-term strategy should help its recovery prospects. Stuart Blair owns shares in Royal Dutch Shell and BP. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer
Royal Dutch Shell share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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