Royal Bank Of Scotland Share Discussion Threads

[smurfy2001] 11/10/2019 11:51

Following a meeting between Ireland's Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, both sides briefed that there is a "pathway to a deal" by the end of October. We think a deal can be negotiated, with the UK accepting a customs border in the Irish Sea and the EU allowing for a consent mechanism. While we think the chances of a deal being approved by the current parliament are limited, we would see a significantly reduced risk of a no-deal outcome should Prime Minister Johnson shift to a NI-only backstop

Moving the customs border is key: It remains unclear what developments led to a constructive tone of the post-meeting briefings. We think a deal is negotiable if the UK agrees to a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK - i.e. a complete NI-only backstop, with the EU potentially agreeing to a modified version of the consent process proposed by Prime Minister Johnson. Media reports suggest the EU is willing to countenance an exit mechanism for Northern Ireland with a "double majority" - approval from both the nationalist and the unionists - in the NI Assembly needed to leave the backstop. Elections before Brexit: We see only 30% chance of such a deal being approved in the current parliament, as we assume the DUP would oppose it, as well as a solid number of ERG/unionist Conservative MPs. We continue to see elections as the most plausible way to decide the way forward on Brexit and expect them to be held before Brexit. However, if a Johnson government were to switch to supporting a negotiable deal, then we would see a significantly reduced risk of a no-deal outcome after elections, since even a 'Leave' government would prefer an orderly exit to a no-deal outcome.

[leedskier] 11/10/2019 11:49

entente cordiale by the bucket load

[smurfy2001] 11/10/2019 11:49

Brexit: Donald Tusk receives 'promising signals' from Irish PM

[smurfy2001] 11/10/2019 11:38

Tusk told Johnson: make new offer by Friday or 'no more chances'



Brexit: Michel Barnier calls for patience after 'constructive' UK talks � live news

[mallys83] 11/10/2019 11:33

What do you think is best though? To sell now incase if a huge drop if a deal is not reached or to hold?

[leedskier] 11/10/2019 11:27

For overseas investors it is much better than that because the GBP will rise at least 10%.

[mallys83] 11/10/2019 11:23

20% increase predicted if a deal goes ahead.

[polar fox] 11/10/2019 11:20

Barnier just was intercepted on his way to debrief the 27. He gave nothing away, said patience is required, a mountain to climb etc. The usual.

Maybe he will speak AFTER he's put the 27 in the picture????

[mallys83] 11/10/2019 11:15

HOLD HOLD HOLD. It jumped to 231 then adjusted to 216.20. Do not sell

[gcom2] 11/10/2019 11:10

bloody hell its gone up 10 %

[smurfy2001] 11/10/2019 10:54

Donald Tusk: 'I have received promising signals that a Brexit deal is possible' live news

Follow the latest political developments after the UK and Irish leaders agreed there was a �pathway to a possible deal�



A deal could see a significant rise in stocks.

[polar fox] 11/10/2019 07:19

Bloomberg speculation, from a much longer article:

What on earth is Johnson proposing? Let us assume that he is dealing in good faith. If so, at this point, it is hard to see what could spark such positivity from Varadkar other than a customs border through the Irish Sea.

unquote

We should know more after Barclay meets with Barnier.

[leedskier] 10/10/2019 15:41

I have not forgotten that I need to add the FX charts to the header, but I need to do it at the weekend just in case I mess up the coding used in the header. Time flies it is more than a decade since I created the header. I need to relearn how to do it.

[leedskier] 10/10/2019 15:28

A favourite of mine too.

The charts (including FX) erections appears to be related to talk of a Dublin backdown.

[tradejunkie2] 10/10/2019 13:26

Just bought 20 loves of bread for the freezer. So now I've got my Brexit contingency in place. My cats and l can enjoy beans and toast.

[polar fox] 10/10/2019 11:17

Some of you may recall my local NatWest branch closing - what seems like - eons ago and a sign board going up 'To let' in the name of GVA, who turned out to have many hundreds of vacant RBS group properties for sale or rent on their books.

I noticed that a new board has just gone up, this time in the name of Avison Young, which turns out to be a Canadian company, who have acquired GVA.

Here's a couple of paras:

Canada-based firm expands to 5,000 professionals in 120 offices in 20 countries; combination establishes Avison Young as the global, disruptive challenger brand.


Mark E. Rose, Chair and CEO of Avison Young, the world�s fastest-growing, private and Principal-owned, global commercial real estate services firm, announced today that it has closed the acquisition of U.K.-based GVA, one of the U.K.�s leading and most diverse real estate advisory businesses.

Effective immediately, the two companies will combine under one unified brand: Avison Young.

unquote

Good luck to them - they are going to need it! Trying to let a pig's ear as a silk purse.

[polar fox] 10/10/2019 07:07

Six weeks in Japan doesn't come cheap, so I don't suppose McEwan is best pleased by the All Blacks' final match being cancelled, but at least they have finished top of their group, as expected. The final is on Nov.2 and he starts at NAB in Melbourne on Dec.1 - all nicely planned. He's done with RBS.

England's cancellation has left them top of their group also, without having to play France - a bit of a bonus, it seems to me.

[leedskier] 09/10/2019 18:07

Boris Johnson tells Tory MPs if Brexit delayed he would NOT fight election on no-deal platform - live news

[leedskier] 08/10/2019 20:32

The EU power brokers are now mooting a Brexit postponement until summer 2020.

That will get the Dom's juices flowing.

[leedskier] 08/10/2019 18:50

Great thanks.