Riverstone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 28/2/2020 09:40

Oil well down, can't say the further falls aren't justified. Sitting on it, but haven't added.

[spectoacc] 30/1/2020 08:07

Anyone analyse the valuation update?

[spectoacc] 27/1/2020 15:06

And back down. Probably about right, with Corona virus effect on oil price/world economy. Hopefully RSE's holdings might now be relatively defensive.

[sirrux] 21/1/2020 13:11

How ironic that they picked up most assets around $50 oil average? Well the oil price rose but their "cheap" assets just got cheaper. The investors' money, well that's in the pockets of high flying oil executives running loss-making oil cos and these guys managing it all for you - does that sound right?

[spectoacc] 16/1/2020 07:00

Flogging the frackers & buying renewables would certainly put a rocket under it! But I think our best hope is a revaluation of non-Middle East producers, which Trump appears to have kicked off.

[rambutan2] 15/1/2020 19:57

Yes, should be. And then at end of Feb, the annual report. The board will be under pressure to offer shareholders some hope, to say the least.

It crossed my mind that perhaps a shift to investing in renewable energy assets might be one way to bring about a rerating?

"Riverstone is an energy and power-focused private investment firm founded in 2000 by David M. Leuschen and Pierre F. Lapeyre, Jr. with approximately $39 billion of capital raised. We conduct buyout and growth capital investments in the exploration & production, midstream, oilfield services, power, and renewable sectors of the energy industry."

[spectoacc] 15/1/2020 16:25

All gone a bit quiet, guessing next qtrly valution towards end of this month?

[spectoacc] 07/1/2020 15:19

Don't know if it's enough to save RSE at this relatively late stage, but US (particularly on-shore) has got to be a lot more valuable post-Soleimani. Whatever premium was in the price previously, is now going to be higher, even before any further escalation. That's over & above the general rise in the oil price.

[spectoacc] 06/1/2020 09:03

Been trying to add but next to impossible - usually a good sign for a rise.

[lpavlou] 05/1/2020 17:10

Agreed the net asset value has been falling but the share price of CDEV has recovered from its low and we should now be close to the bottom. If they believe that values have further to fall then they won't be buying back the shares. Any buyback is still a way off. If they had real confidence in TH wot ability and could raise the funds, now would be a good time to be buying good quality assets at knock-down prices

[spectoacc] 05/1/2020 11:54

I think everyone should also bear in mind that the NAV is a hugely moveable feast - it's falling dozens of % each time they report. In fact, if they'd "taken actions" to close the gap with buybacks etc previously, they'd have been hugely damaging to shareholder value within the space of 12 months.

[lpavlou] 05/1/2020 11:21

This is not a good time to sell their best assets at rick bottom prices. I agree they can shift the lower value assets and use the cash to buy back shares to reduce the gap to net assets. If oil can stay in the 60s range this year, then that should help values

[sirrux] 03/1/2020 23:03

The RNS looks a bit gimmicky to me. I don't think there was much more performance fee to milk from sales of in the money assets on the way down. All really depends now on management's medium to long term view and whether they'll let this one sink (no real belief in the long term future of these assets) or if they are going to hunker down on a less lucrative package and see the LT shareholders through to some actual returns. The best deal may be for them to sell the lot and this RNS may be a prelude to that.

[lpavlou] 03/1/2020 22:17

A better bet might be CDEV, which is partly owned by Riverstone an d THeir only listed investment. Riverstone were lucky and managed to unload 2 large stakes at 20usd 18 months ago and the share price is now just below 5 usd having been as low as 3 usd.

[lpavlou] 03/1/2020 22:14

The book value of castex stake was 15m usd. They had to give away some undrilled land to get it away but this didn't have any value in the books anyway. They are getting Talos shares instead of cash. Unfortunately investors have given up on the sector hence PE ratios have fallen dramatically and know one wants to invest in these assets. We are getting close to the bottom so a purchase now with a 5 year window should show a good gain. Don't expect any meaningful short term rise.

[spectoacc] 03/1/2020 16:05

Must admit I'm not in with any tremendous confidence, and could have had under £4 a couple of times, and could have called the bottom wrongly a dozen or more times on that chart, but - $2 on oil can't be ignored, and if the massive writedowns did cease, or even better, start going into reverse...

The loss of capital on this one has been so massive, some sort of recovery has to happen some time - assuming there's any oil/coal etc in our future.

[rambutan2] 03/1/2020 14:16

I held my nose and bought a few this morning. As i read it, the incentive scheme is now a usual style pe one ie 20% after all costs and above an 8%pa hurdle, and importantly, on the whole portfolio. Not on indv investments. Also, i think (rang them and no one in office to confirm query!) that this is backdated to the trusts launch. So that hurdle will be very very far away at present.

[spectoacc] 03/1/2020 10:18

Been buying, tho significantly missed the bottom. But $2 on oil today due to Iran/US.

Last NAV £7.47 I believe - perhaps the disposal shows its still around there and not being massively marked down further. Personally I think it's going lower - then up!

Hate to be buying an old economy, oil/coal investor, but whilst renewables are the future, they're not the immediate future.

Despite the discount, isn't screamingly cheap until the NAV falls reverse.

[spectoacc] 03/1/2020 08:37

@Boystown - no price given, but two things it does say:

1. "All the undrilled primary term acreage and prospects" have been dumped for a "non-material" consideration. ie effectively given them away
2. The main sale is at a valuation "Consistent with Q3 2019 valuation". ie they've sold them at book, which is good, but seemingly only got that price by giving away a load of freebies

Trying to make full sense of today's RNS too, but don't recall what previous incentive scheme was. Think it's a net positive, tho the intention to return 20% of value of only future disposals, and only at the whim of the co, is a bit too vague:

"...Going forward, 20% of the Net Profits attributable to each fully realised investment, net of taxes, withholdings or reserves for taxes will, at the discretion of the Company....."

Some might say that's largely meaningless.

As for "trustworthy", I fear the share price speaks for itself, tho their timing for investing in oil/shale etc has been singularly dreadful. A geared swim against the tide.

[boystown] 02/1/2020 21:09

So this lot had $214m, then they sold their Gulf of Mexico Assets to Talos Energy - but unless I'm being really thick (nothing new) they don't say exactly how much they're going to realise?

Either way, if they aren't paying out any dividends, then (1) Why is that and (2) Given their awful track record, why don't they make one big special divi pay-out?

The discount seems to suggest they're utterly untrustworthy - so are they or not?

[hugepants] 11/12/2019 18:02

For the share price to go from 1200p share price to 400p in 12 months is not very good for what is basically an investment trust

[spectoacc] 11/12/2019 15:13

A few times I've looked at it, and each time I don't get very far before finding something that says "bargepole".

They must be getting close to the point of giving up I'd have thought.

[konkel] 11/12/2019 14:11

I'm so tempted to average down but am holding off in fear of the old adage that "the market always knows"!!