Renewable Energy Share Discussion Threads

[darrenward] 20/11/2015 12:52

suspended and no approval!

that's that then :(

[hedgehog 100] 19/11/2015 17:23

"Leaked letter: UK climate minister Amber Rudd admits UK won’t meet 2020 renewables target

by Christine Ottery

November 9, 2015 - 4:09 pm

UK energy and climate secretary Amber Rudd has admitted that the UK won’t meet its 2020 renewables target in a private letter to colleagues leaked to The Ecologist.

The 2020 renewables target of 15% of all UK energy from renewable sources is legally binding at the EU level, and missing it could set into motion a judicial review or fines levied by the EU courts.

In the leaked letter, Rudd said the UK was currently on a trajectory to miss the target and admitted the remaining options open to the government appear insufficient to meet the shortfall.

She wrote that between 2017/18 and 2020 there is 50Twh deficit of renewable energy needed to achieve the target – a significant amount relative to the overall target.


“The trajectory currently leads to a shortfall… in our internal central forecasts (which are not public).

“Publicly we are clear that the UK continues to make progress to meet the target.” – Amber Rudd in the leaked letter ... "

[hedgehog 100] 02/11/2015 18:39

I agree that it's not for widows and orphans, but investors in large energy projects tend to think very long term, so I don't see the grid connection issue as an insurmountable barrier.
The recently announced Hinkley Point power station development for example won't open for ten years -

"What does the nuclear deal with China mean?
By Howard Mustoe
Business reporter
21 October 2015
... Where will the power stations be built?
The first will be built at Hinkley Point on the Somerset coast, and is expected to open by 2025 ..."


REH also looks to have very good potential as an energy shell, with its large tax losses, and Utilico's near 30% holding - so the main creditor has a vested interest in keeping REH going in some form.

Could the listing be utilised by CWE (Carnegie Wave Energy) to obtain a dual-listing in London?

[visionon] 02/11/2015 08:33

That would be a very brave trade IMHO. Even if REH do get permission there is no grid connection in sight because the proposed one got thrown about by Amber Rudd when she turned down most of the mid-Wales Inquiry applications. Furthermore the existing subsidy support looks due to run-out before this scheme could be built. i.e. the conditions are very different to 2013 when the share price last spiked. So even if the scheme gets approved it might prove to be a hard sell. Also Poland has proved to be unsaleable for the time being and CWE have just announced a fund raise this morning at 4.2c, so their share price is going backwards again.

[hedgehog 100] 01/11/2015 18:41

I've revisited REH recently as a potential planning permission trade, in view of MAC's ten-bagging between the start of May and latter August this year (from about a penny to over 10p), before falling back:



26/08/2015 07:12 UKREG Marechale Capital PLC Northfield UK Solar Update
"Further to the Company's announcement on 21 August, the Directors of Marechale Capital are pleased to announce that Kettering Borough Council has granted planning permission for Northfield UK Solar Limited's ("Northfield") 49.9MW solar scheme at Desborough. The Company has a 26% equity shareholding in Northfield and this solar scheme. ..."


The long-awaited final planning permission decision on REH's 81-89.1MW Mynydd y Gwynt wind farm is due by the 20th of this month, and I believe that the likelihood of approval is very good:

"What happens next
20/11/2015 - Deadline for Secretary of State to make decision
The Planning Inspectorate issued a report of recommendation to the Secretary of State on 20 August 2015. The Secretary of State has 3 months in which to issue a decision. The decision letter and report of recommendation will be published on this page of the website"


REH's market cap. at its current share price of 0.975p is about two thirds of a million pounds, just a little more than MAC's cap. was at a penny.

[bckttsim] 30/9/2015 11:20

One very brave person buying today.

[visionon] 07/9/2015 21:25

This might be curtains for the REH scheme. No mid-wales grid connection to Welshpool, which I imagine it would have been looking to tap into.



News as of 1hr ago so I guess after market close today.

Other theories welcome !!

[hedgehog 100] 06/7/2015 19:51

Price Price Change [%] Bid Offer Open High Low Volume
1.23 -0.075 [-5.77] 1.10 1.35 1.30 1.30 1.23 2,775
Market Cap. [m] Shares In Issue [m] Beta EPS DPS PE Ratio Yield 52-Wks-Range
0.80 65.56 0.24 -2.29 - - - 3.75 - 0.88

Down to 1.23p today, but still looks overvalued.


It's interesting that Utilico didn't extract an increased success fee for its latest change to its lending to REH, though it had previously:

04/06/2015 16:39 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Renewable Energy Holdings plc Amendment of Loan & Loan Facility with Utilico
"REH announces that on 4 June 2015 it agreed with Utilico to amend the maturity dates on its loan with Utilico, originally dated 31 July 2009 and subsequently amended ("2009 Loan"), and its loan facility with Utilico, originally entered into on 5 February 2014 and subsequently amended ("Loan Facility") (together the "Amendments"). The maturity dates are amended from 31 July 2015 to 31 December 2015. All other terms remain the same as previously announced. The amount drawn down at present from the Loan Facility of GBP4.25 million is GBP4 million...."


15/12/2014 10:15 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Renewable Energy Holdings plc Amendment of Loan and Loan Facility with Utilico
"...The 2009 Loan's maturity date is extended to 31 July 2015. All other terms remain the same as previously announced and detailed in the Company's Annual Accounts.
The Loan Facility is increased from GBP3.25 million to GBP4.25 million and the maturity date amended to 31 July 2015. All other terms remain the same other than the success fee payable to Utilico, previously set out in the Company's announcement of 6 February 2013 (and subsequently in the Company's Annual Accounts), which is increased by GBP0.5 million...."


I believe that is probably because they know that they will be taking everything anyway.


'A shell waiting to happen' in my opinion.

But if so, it will need refinancing if Utilico takes the assets, as is likely.

And usually for a shell with no assets, such a refinancing takes place at a pre new money market cap. of about £200K. - £600K.
That would currently equate to about 0.285p - 0.85p.
But if Utilico converts debt into shares, that equation would decrease.

[joeblogg2] 18/6/2015 15:26

Sadly I took a big hit here and sold my 100k shares as not sure we will be left with anything :((

[supernumerary] 18/6/2015 09:46

Earlier end to subsidies for new UK onshore wind farms

New onshore wind farms will be excluded from a subsidy scheme from 1 April 2016, a year earlier than expected.

There will be a grace period for projects which already have planning permission, the Department of Energy and Climate Change said.

But it is estimated that almost 3,000 wind turbines are awaiting planning permission and this announcement could jeopardise those plans.

Energy firms had been facing an end to generous subsidies in 2017.

The funding for the subsidy comes from the Renewables Obligation, which is funded by levies added to household fuel bills.

[...]

[hedgehog 100] 13/6/2015 20:34

Hedgehog 100 23 Jun'14 - 16:52 - 1877 of 2436 0 0 edit
"... Clearly the expectation of a Kobylany sale completion by the end of 2013 has not been met, and is now nearly six months overdue.
My suspicion, sadly, is that the hoped for sale price will not be offered, which clearly has major implications in view of REH's total liabilities of £5.83M. as at 30th. September 2013.
It could also mean that the auditors put pressure on REH to write down the book value of Kobylany. ..."

08/06/2015 07:00 UKREG Renewable Energy Holdings plc Final Results
" ... Due to the anticipated reduction in tariffs in Poland and the failure to sell the project over the last two years the Directors have written down the project's value to GBP2m. ...
Loss from discontinued operations 2014 2013
GBP GBP
(000s) (000's)
Impairment of assets of Polish Wind farm (2,169) - ..."



The only surprise was that the value of Kobylany was not written down earlier (i.e. 2104 finals), as in my opinion investors have been strung on for a long time on unrealistic Poland valuation hopes.

But even an impairment of over £2M. looks too little: in my opinion a valuation of over £1M. for Kobylany looks too much, meaning that it is still valued at far above what it should be.

[brucie5] 09/6/2015 16:40

Very disappointing, and each time it happens reminds me not to touch penny stocks that posters have valued at many-fold times their accorded value! Sounds very much like you got it wrong guys. But good luck to holders. Cut my losses this morning. Fortunately a small holding.

[john of groats] 08/6/2015 14:23

The net asset value of Kobylany has been reduced from £3,831m to £1,573m. That is much less than the £6.5m currently owed to Utilico (£2.5m from the 2009 loan and £4m from the 2013 loan facility). A firesale of Kobylany looks increasingly likely.

It is definitely worth reading note 28 to the accounts to see how Utilico has extracted very tough conditions on the disposal of MyG. Selling to anyone other than Utilico is fraught with difficulties.

Then there are factors noted on page two of the results: the changes to wind farm subsidies for MyG (not to our benefit), that the next opportunity to bid for supplying electricity from MyG is unlikely before winter 2016, and that connection to the National Grid may take till October 2019 (assuming no unforeseen delays). The Utilico loans need to be repaid by the end of 2015 so it is likely that repayment will have to be postponed again, incurring continued interest charges and the possibility that Utilico will want even more onerous terms.

Whether the Government would be able to meet its EU commitments to carbon reduction without any further onshore wind farms is debatable and, even if it does meet them, can the lights be kept on as coal-fired power stations close prematurely and nuclear power continues to suffer delays to new capacity.

CWE continues to make progress but the share price has fallen from the 10 cents I used in my calculations of August 2013 to 0.47 cents.

When I do finally get down to reassessing the net value of REH, I can see some significant reduction will be necessary.

John

[bckttsim] 08/6/2015 11:56

Re- star newsThis company could be no longer if that's the case.

[visionon] 08/6/2015 11:37

Results "coincided" with the news below. More news this week it would seem.

hxxp://www.shropshirestar.com/news/2015/06/08/plans-to-build-windfarms-in-shropshire-and-mid-wales-dead-in-the-water/

[supernumerary] 08/6/2015 09:44

Dreadful results, but entirely predictable. Should have been worse - I really don't understand why they haven't written the Polish wind farm down to zero, there's obviously no chance of selling it. In the unlikely event that there was a potential buyer, he'd simply wait until REH goes under and buy it from the liquidator for pennies.

The Welsh farm is now not merely risky - even if it succeeds it's subject to further delays, by which time Utilico will certainly own the whole thing or as near as makes no difference.

Typical for AIM - an example of management greed and incompetence on an epic scale.

[whoppy] 08/6/2015 08:59

Doesn't look great now. Onshore wind farms are not being supported by the government. The Welsh wind farm is very much dependent on the National Grid substation gaining planning approval, so even if they get the wind farm approved they will have to wait and see what will happen with the grid connection application. Then there are the current subsidies being pulled and replaced with less favourable ones. They have drawn down £4m of the loan facility with £0.25m only left. Everything has conspired against. Some energy companies are withdrawing their applications for onshore wind farms in Wales because of the uncertainty. Still holding in the hope they get the nod in November but looks like the share price won't do much. Disappointed about Poland not going anywhere.

[21trader] 08/6/2015 08:43

Not a good set of results were they. 2 mil valuation for Poland now I always thought it was going to get double figures before paying off the debt but still
leaving a nice return to shareholders. Not surprised the price has tanked today.

[joeblogg2] 08/6/2015 08:29

All or nothing with the Welsh Windfarms as Polish has become difficult to realise and CWE locked.

[bckttsim] 08/6/2015 07:24

Failure to do anything with the polish site and having to write it down ! Terrible ! And how much have they been really trying to sell this.Terrible results.And if the Welsh wind farm runs into trouble ......Buy Buy.

[brucie5] 02/6/2015 12:45

Sharesoc,

I'd be happy to read about your society's finding re. this co's prospects between here and November.

B5.

[sharesoc] 02/6/2015 11:59

We are holding one of our popular Investor Masterclasses in Manchester so local investors and shareholders in REH may be interested in attending as REH is based nearby our venue...